ladco climate and transport lem presentation final 10 23 09

Climate Change and the Transportation SectorClimate Change and the Transportation SectorMidwest Transportation Air Quality SummitMidwest Transportation Air Quality SummitOctober 28, 2009October 28, 2009

Lewison LemLewison Lem

Principal Consultant

Center for Climate Strategies

and Jack Faucett Associates

Inventories Show Transportation as Sector Inventories Show Transportation as Sector accounting for the Second Largest Amount of accounting for the Second Largest Amount of GHG EmissionsGHG Emissions

Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004


(www.climatestrategies.us) 2

The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to The Contribution of the Transportation Sector to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the United StatesGreenhouse Gas Emissions in the United States

� The transportation sector (red) produces 28% of GHG emissions in the United States

3


(www.climatestrategies.us)

Selected Midwest Selected Midwest States (2003) Transport States (2003) Transport and Total GHG and Total GHG Emissions (MMtCO2e)Emissions (MMtCO2e)State 2003

Transport2003Total

2003Transport % of Total

Illinois 65.5 274.9 23.8%

Indiana 47.2 269.0 17.5%

Iowa 19.4 116.7 16.6%

Michigan 55.7 211.4 26.3%

Minnesota 34.8 124.1 28.0%

Ohio 69.7 300.7 23.2%

Wisconsin 29.6 123.7 23.9%

7 State Subtotal 321.9 1420.5 22.7%



Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Selected Midwest States GHG Emissions Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003Growth Rates from 1990 to 2003State

Transport %Increase

Total % Increase

TransportAnnual Rate% Increase

TotalAnnual Rate % Increase

Illinois 18.4% 15.8% 1.4% 1.2%

Indiana 14.0% 18.7% 1.1% 1.4%

Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2%Iowa 16.9% 15.0% 1.3% 1.2%

Michigan 13.7% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3%

Minnesota 43.2% 20.0% 3.3% 1.5%

Ohio 21.9% 10.4% 1.7% 0.8%

Wisconsin 19.4% 15.4% 1.5% 1.2%

7 State Subtotal

19.8% 13.5% 1.5% 1.0%



Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Distribution of Transportation Sector GHG Emissions by Mode of TravelEmissions by Mode of Travel

6



United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast United States (DOE/AEO) Baseline Forecast of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020of Total Vehicle Miles Traveled through 2020

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500A

nn

ua

l V

MT

(b

illi

on

s)

Heavy Duty Trucks

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2010 2015 2020

An

nu

al V

MT

(b

illi

on

s)

Heavy Duty Trucks

Medium Duty Trucks

Light Trucks

Automobiles



United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation United States (DOE/AEO) National Transportation Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020Fuel Consumption Baseline Forecast through 2020

25

30

35

Other

MarineBunker Fuel

Ethanol (E85)

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2010 2015 2020

Qu

ad

rill

ion

Btu

s Ethanol (E85)

Jet Fuel

Diesel

Gasoline



US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV US Forecast of New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFEFleet Fuel Efficiency with EISA 2007 CAFE

30

35

40M

ile

s p

er

Ga

llo

n G

aso

lin

e E

qu

iva

len

t (M

PG

e)

New LDV MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE

Total LDV Fleet MPG

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

es

pe

r G

all

on

Ga

soli

ne

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

(MP

Ge

)

Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE



US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet US Forecast New LDV and Total LDV Fleet Fuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFEFuel Efficiency with Obama 2009 CAFE

30

35

40

Mil

es

pe

r G

all

on

Ga

soli

ne

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

(MP

Ge

) New LDV MPG with Obama 2009 CAFÉ

New LDV MPG with

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

es

pe

r G

all

on

Ga

soli

ne

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

(MP

Ge

)

MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE

Total LDV Fleet MPG with Obama 2009 CAFE

Total LDV Fleet MPG with EISA 2007 CAFE



Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Comparison of Global Vehicle GHG Emissions and Fuel Economy StandardsEmissions and Fuel Economy Standards



(http://www.theicct.org/documents/ICCT_GlobalStandards_2007.pdf)

US Potential US Potential for GHG Emissions for GHG Emissions Reductions Reductions from Vehicle Purchase Incentivesfrom Vehicle Purchase Incentives

-6.3% in 2020

-1.8% in 2020

0.0%

2,000

2,200

2,400

US

Fu

ll F

ue

l C

ycl

e E

mis

sio

ns

(MM

CO

2e

)

EISA 2007 CAFE

-4000.0%1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2005 2010 2015 2020

US

Fu

ll F

ue

l C

ycl

e E

mis

sio

ns

(MM

CO

2e

)

Obama 2009 CAFE

Obama 2009 CAFE +Incentives



Vehicle Purchase Incentives:Vehicle Purchase Incentives:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

� 1,792 Billion Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings

� 22.71 MMtCO2e Reduction in GHG Emissions

$3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs� $3.0 B Increase in Vehicle Costs

� $7.6 B Decrease in Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Costs

� $4.5 B Decrease in Net Costs

� $195 in net savings $/ton Cost-Effectiveness

(Year 2007 dollars)



US Potential for US Potential for GHG Emissions GHG Emissions Reductions Reductions from Advanced Biofuelsfrom Advanced Biofuels

-6.7%

-1.8%

0.0%

2,000

2,200

2,400

US

Fu

ll F

ue

l C

ycl

e E

mis

sio

ns

(MM

CO

2e

)US On-Road Greenhouse Gas Emissions

EISA 2007 CAFE

-4000.0%1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2005 2010 2015 2020

US

Fu

ll F

ue

l C

ycl

e E

mis

sio

ns

(MM

CO

2e

)

Obama 2009 CAFE

Obama 2009 CAFE +Renewable Fuels



Advanced Biofuels:Advanced Biofuels:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

� 600 Million Gallons in Gasoline and Diesel Savings

� 1.49 Billion Gallons Added Ethanol Consumption


(Year 2007 dollars)



Truck AntiTruck Anti--Idling:Idling:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

� 4 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings


� $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs� $1.29 B Increase in Vehicle & Equipment Costs

� $2.07 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs

� $0. 77 B Decrease in Net Costs


(Year 2007 dollars)



Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:Freight Truck to Rail Mode Shift:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

� 10.28 Billion Gallons in Diesel Fuel Savings


$1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs� $1.2 B Increase in Vehicle & Infrastructure Costs

� $4.4 B Decrease in Diesel Fuel Costs

� $3.2 B Decrease in Net Costs


(Year 2007 dollars)



“Double” Transit Ridership:“Double” Transit Ridership:13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates13 State Midwest Year 2020 Estimates

� 328 Million Gallons in Auto Gasoline Savings


� Capital and O&M Costs not yet estimated

� $822 M Decrease in Auto Gasoline Fuel Costs

(Year 2007 dollars)



Global Comparisons Global Comparisons Show Show Gradient Gradient of Per Capita Transportation Energy of Per Capita Transportation Energy Use Use in in Urban AreasUrban Areas

19



UK UK transport transport CO2 CO2 emissions emissions emissions emissions Intensity Intensity Map, 2005Map, 2005

20



London Metro Transport CO2 London Metro Transport CO2 emissions intensity, 2005emissions intensity, 2005

21



22



Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:Infill and TOD analysis for Atlanta Metro Region:Atlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showedAtlantic Steel/Atlantic Station site simulation showed35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.35% less driving and emissions than comparable sites.



For Further Information:For Further Information:

� www.climatestrategies.us

� http://www.jfaucett.com/

� [email protected]



ladco climate and transport lem presentation final 10 23 09

Documents

ghg emissions reductions

climate strategieswww

ghg emissions source

diesel fuel costs

climate change

diesel fuel savings

vehicle costs

fuel cycle emissions