laboratory for maritime transport

LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT

SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING

NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

Nikolaos P. Ventikos

Exploring fire incidents/accidentsonboard cruise

and passenger ships

MASSEP 2013, Athens, 30 & 31 May, 2013

http://www.martrans.org/index.htm

http://www.google.gr/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=fire+ship&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=JCCs2Fn5CNvY2M&tbnid=G_9pke8zhywbcM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.3news.co.nz/Cruise-ship-evacuated-after-intense-fire/tabid/417/articleID/226006/Default.aspx&ei=5-alUelQpofQBdLJgLgL&bvm=bv.47008514,d.bGE&psig=AFQjCNEVtd03UBFCW7coXznVkAJWhRegxA&ust=1369913210659097

The work presented herein was partially supported by the EC-funded project “Probabilistic Framework for Onboard Safety” (FIREPROOF), SCP7-GA-2008-218761, coordinated by the University of Strathclyde, Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering – The Ship Stability Research Centre (SSRC)

Acknowledgments

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships

I would like to thank and acknowledge the substantial role of Ms. M. Petsou and Mr. G. Papamichalis (they are both naval architects and marine engineers from NTUA) in the development and conclusion of this high level statistical analysis of fire/ignition events onboard passenger/cruise vessels

The Set-Up of the Presentation

Sections

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Objectives of the Research

Literature Review (indicative)

Methodology: Database and Elements

Results (from multi level analysis)

Discussion

(Instead of ) Conclusions




Section 1

Compilation of a comprehensive database on maritime fire accidents

The database would help identify statistical data on some significant aspects that would serve to provide priori probabilities for the ignition models



Develop a method for generating fire scenarios according to their probability of incidence

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Literature Review


Section 2


Literature Review

Indicative List of Relative Publications

Da Veiga et al.

(1999)

Darbra & Casal

(2004)

Vlaun et al.

(2001)Ventikos

et al. (2007)

Gruarin et al.

(2007)

Nikolaou & Spyrou (2010)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Oikonomou & Ventikos

(2010)

Themeliset al.

(2011)

Soares & Texeira (2001)

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Mendiola et al.

(2010)

Hakkarainen et al.

(2009)

Galea et al.(2012)



Section 3



DB Identity and Fields

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

• Incident Date and Time• Location of the vessel• Weather Contribution• Onboard Location + SOLAS Cat.• Detection• Adjacent Detector Activated• Suppression means• Time to detect (mins)• Time to extinguish (mins)• Ventilation status

• Fire Door status• Space Occupied• Crew Presence• Boundary Cooling status• Human Factor Contribution• Emergency Response Failure• Containment Failure• Ignition in Adjacent Spaces• Severity • Source Ignition

Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger ships – period: 2003–2010 – with 1521 records (provided by operators)



SOLAS Space Categories

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

The 14 spaces defined by SOLAS were adopted so that every further proposition for fire safety regulation could be easily adapted with minimum confusion



Why is this Database Interesting?

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger shipsperiod: 2003–2010 with 1521 records(provided by operators)

Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records(provided by a commercial database)

UNDERRPORTING!!

Results (from statistical analysis)


Section 4


Results

Distribution of Records per SOLAS Space Category

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Distribution of whether the Fire was Detected or not

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Distribution of Records per Ignition Source

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Distribution of Records per Severity Category

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Activation or not of the Detector of an Adjacent Space

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Analysis of Ignition Sources for Fires on Passenger Ships

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Ignition Sources n % P-value

Electrical 458 30.11Hot surface / Electrical other than static charges 0.039

Cigarettes 339 22.29

Hot surface 187 12.29Burning/Welding/ Cutting / Cigarettes, Matches etc 0.007

Spontaneous Combustion 219 14.40


Results

Frequency Rates for Fires (all vs. severe events)

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Average Frequency / ship-year 3.284

Average fleet size / year 125

Expected number of events / year 410.52

Average Frequency / ship-year 4x10-3

Average fleet size / year 125Expected number of events / year 5.4x10-1


Results

Frequency Rate per SOLAS Space Category (all fires)

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

SOLAS SPACE CATEGORY

SOLAS Space Category No5






Number of Fire Incidents (all incidents) for each SOLAS space category

72 319 192 55 642 126

Average Frequency / ship-year 1.6x10-1 6.9x10-1 4.1x10-1 1.2x10-1 1.39 2.7x10-1


Results

Time Evolution of Frequency Rates per Ignition Source

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Results

Tests for Statistical Significance

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Discussion


Section 5


Discussion

Frequency Rates for Fires (commercial vs. developed dbs )

Fleet at risk (ship-years) 40,707

Average Frequency / ship-year (serious) 0.001

Average Frequency / ship-year (total losses) 0.00027

Average Frequency / ship-year (severe) 4x10-3

Average Frequency / ship-year (significant+severe) 0.030

Average Frequency / ship-year (all records) 3.284

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6


Discussion

Frequency Rate for FX (SURSHIP-FIRE vs. developed dbs )

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

(Instead of) Conclusions


Section 6


(Instead of) Conclusions

UNDERREPORTING

Ignitions and Fires on cruise and passenger shipsperiod: 2003–2010 with 1521 records(provided by operators)

Fires&Explosions for any type of passenger vessel (incl. cruise ships) period: 1999–2009 with 63 records(provided by a commercial database)

This might be a problem for all types of marine accidents ; however it is mainly recorded in the case of fires

Section 1

Section 2

Section 3

Section 4

Section 5

Section 6

Nikolaos P. Ventikos

LABORATORY FOR MARITIME TRANSPORT

SCHOOL OF NAVAL ARCHITECTURE AND MARINE ENGINEERING

NATIONAL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS

Exploring fire incidents/accidents onboard cruise and passenger ships THANK YOU VERY

MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION

laboratory for maritime transport

Documents

fields section

presentation sections

passenger shipssection

passenger ships methodology

passenger ships period

passenger ships massep

onboard safety

comprehensive database