knowledge for growth: foresight and support to development of era in the balkan area

RCC Regional Conference “Western Balkans in 2020”, 24-25 February 2010, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

Knowledge for Growth: Foresight and Support to

Development of ERA in the Balkan Area

Dr. Ales GnamusKnowledge for Growth Unit, IPTS

RCC Regional Conference “Western Balkans in 2020, Overcoming the Economic Crisis and Developing Competitive Economies”

Sarajevo, BiH, 24 February 2010


Mission: To contribute to a competitive knowledge-based economy by supporting research, education, innovation and cohesion policies

Vision: To become one of the leading European centres for the techno-economic analysis and ex-ante impact assessment of knowledge policies, combining quantitative and qualitative methods

Mission and Vision – Knowledge for Growth


Knowledge for Growth - Four Actions

European Research Area-

Analysis

Industrial Research and

Innovation

Regional Economic Modelling

European Research Area-

Policies


R&D growth of EU-based companies ahead of that of their US counterparts and higher than EU GDP growth*.

*The 2009 "EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard" (the Scoreboard) presents information on the top 1000 EU companies* and the top 1000 non-EU companies ranked by their investments in research and development (R&D). The 2009 Scoreboard data are drawn from the latest available companies' accounts, i.e. the fiscal year 2008. Scoreboard data have been collected for the last 6 years.

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

no

min

al

gro

wth

EU R&D US R&D EU GDP US GDP

Industrial Research and Innovation (1)

Source: The EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboards, EC, JRC/DG RTD and EUROSTAT


Industrial research and Innovation (2)

Impact of R&D on firms economic performance

Large empirical literature on the positive impact of R&D on productivity growth.

Additional JRC-IPTS contribution:

• R&D raises productivity much more in high-tech sectors than in low-tech ones

• Productivity growth in low-tech firms is more dependent on investment in physical capital (embodied technological change).


Regional Economic Model

The objective of the model is to assess ex-ante the impact of ECP instruments on growth and employment (grouping the measures in the categories of Infrastructure, Human Capital, R&D and Productive Environment)

A consortium led by TNO is developing the prototype under guidance of JRC-IPTS. Its novelty is the combination of spatial general equilibrium modelling with New Economic Geography (NEG) features

The prototype covers sectors of economic activity in detail, with spill-overs between sectors and between regions based on trade and R&D.

The prototype covers the regions of CZ, SK, HU, PL (NUTS2) and DE (NUTS1)

IPTS will take over in January 2010 its validation, its application to some scenarios, its extension to the NUTS2/1 regions in all EU-27 countries (by 2012) and further model development (improved NEG features).


ERA-Analysis (1)

Knowledge triangle policies:

They are poorly integrated in the EU guidelines to the preparation of National Reform programmes of the current Lisbon Strategy, reflecting to some extent the silo approach to policy making by the Commission in this area

Energy Research Capacities Map:

Analysis of public expenditure in different energy technologies important to the implementation of SET-Plan (done with ECCET)

Specialisation:

Using FP6 data it has been shown that regional agglomeration of innovation capacity is important for the productivity of technological research (but not scientific research) while networking has an impact on the productivity of scientific research (but not technological research)


ERA-Analysis (2)

Universities:

• University researchers appearing as inventors in business patents is as important for innovation as them filing a patents

• Top 171 EU Universities participate actively in the Community Framework Programme and receive over 60 % of the budget

Mobility of Researchers:

• The number of researchers ‘exported’ by most EU countries is higher than the number of researchers they ‘import’

• In most EU countries there are administrative and legal barriers to the recruitment of foreign researchers in PRO and Universities and the quality of research base and infrastructures unattractive


ERA-Policies: ERAWATCH (1)

ERAWATCH (http://cordis.europa.eu/erawatch) is the European Commission's on-line information platform on R&D systems and policies in Europe and beyond

Currently covers 49 countries: 27 EU Member States, countries associated with the Framework Programme and main trading partners of the EU –further expansion planned to 59 countries!

Supporting the development of the European Research Area by providing policy makers and analysts with:

Concise and up-to-date information on policies, instruments, general structure, actors and relevant organisations

Analysis of research systems and policy developments (e.g. Annual analytical country reports assess the evolution of the national policy mixes in ERA countries)


ERA-Policies: ERAWATCH (2)

● Expanding the coverage of ERAWATCH

● EU Neighbourhood study 2009– New country profiles published for FYROM, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco,

Tunisia and Ukraine – IPTS Workshop November 2009 – lessons learned and future

developments

● New ERAWATCH country fiche format implemented in 2010– Coverage extended: Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Albania

● ERAWATCH International: 2010-2012– Coverage of additional third countries (S&T agreement with the EC)


ERA-Policies: Foresight (1)

Foresight competencies widely recognised by peers, e.g.:

• Support to establishing research priorities (in Western Balkans and for EU-Russia cooperation - FP7 projects)

• Support to establishing long-term research priorities in the field of Industrial Manufacturing (FP7 project)

• Identification of cross-policy dimensions resulting from most important EU challenges in 10-15 years (BEPA)

• Development and dissemination of foresight methodologies – participation in the development of the European Foresight Platform (EFP)



The FP7 project Western Balkan Countries INCO-NET enhances integration of the Western Balkan countries (WBC) in the European Research Area, by:

- supporting the bi-regional dialogue on science and technology (S&T)

- identifying RTD potentials and priorities

- enhancing participation of researchers from the region in European projects of mutual interest and benefit

- establishing the information exchange platform on S&T policy cooperation with the Western Balkan countries http://www.wbc-inco.net/



- Project duration from 2008 to 2011

- Interaction between the Western Balkancountries, the EU Member States, statesassociated to FP7 and the EC

- 26 partners from AT, AL, BE, BiH, BG, HR, MK, DE, GR, IT, Kosovo/UNMIK, MO, NL, SR, SI and TR

- The main role of JRC-IPTS is to participate in

WP1 European and Regional Dialogue

WP2 Priority setting to structure participation in FP

WP3 on monitoring and analysis of S&T co-operation.



Foresight training for high-level policy / decision makers:

– Target group: New Member States, Candidate and Potential Candidate EU Countries (NMS, CC & PCC)

– Next edition: March 2010 (2-block training)

– Participating countries: AL, TR, MK, BiH, Kosovo (under UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99), HR, SR, MO, RO, BG

– Future: moving towards an online training tool

– Western Balkan Futures project Workshop 10/03/2010, Pre-Event to the 11th Bled Forum Foresight Conference, Bled, Slovenia

– EC, JRC-IPTS contribution through bringing in the know-how and combination of qualitative and quantitative methodologies in looking at the future (combining modelling / foresight!)


Thank you

knowledge for growth: foresight and support to development of era in the balkan area

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