SUBJECT INDEX

SL.NO SUBJECT PAGE NO: I. Developments in Afghanistan And Afghan Relations I. Introducing Afghanistan and Developments in Afghanistan 1.Introducing Afghanistan which is Bleeding 7 2.Modern History-Milestones up to 1992(End of Soviet occupation) 8 3.US Invasion of Afghanistan 2001 11 4. After 9 years of US invasion 14 5.Position in Afghanistan(up to the end of 2009) 16 6.Some Developments in 2010 19 II. Indo-Afghanistan Relations 26 II. Developments In Bangladesh And India-Bangladesh Relations I. Introducing Bangladesh and Some Political Developments: 1. Introducing Bangladesh: 29

2. General Elections and formation of the Government by Hasina Begum of Awami League: 31 II.India-Bangladesh Relations: 1. Ups and downs in friendly Relations: 33 2. The issues between India and Bangladesh can be serialized: 33 a. Boundary Dispute: 33 b. Maritime Boundary Issue: 34 c. Sharing of River Waters: 34 d. Tipalmukh Dam and Hydro Electric Project in Manipur: 35 e. Cross Border Terrorism: 35 3. Some Positive Developments and Agreements: 36 a. Cooperation on Sunderbans Eco-System 37 b. Road links between India and Bangladesh: 37 c. The inland water transport and travel protocol: 38 d. Kolkata-Gawhati River Route: 38 e. Vested Property Return Act: 38 f. Trade : 38 g. Visit of Bangladesh Army Chief 38 h. Iindira Gandhi Award for Haseena Begam: 38 i. Handing over of top JEM Lead: 38 j. Security Force Meet: 38 k. Visit of Bangladesh Army Chief: 38 l. Meet of Joint River Commission: 38 4. Visit of Prime Minister Shaik Hasina Begum to India 10-12 January 2010 New chapter in Bilateral ties: 39 a. Previous Visit of Hasina Begam and its outcome. 39 b.P.M’s Meeting the Opposition in Dhaka before India's Visit. 39 c. Summit of Prime Ministers Hasina Begam and Dr. Man. Mohan Singh in New Delhi - Its Outcome:40 III . Developments In Bhutan And India – Bhutanese Relations: I. Introducing Bhutan And Some Political Developments:42 1.Introducing Bhutan: 42 2.Absolute Monarchy replaced by Democratic Monarchy: 43 II. Indo-Bhutanese Relations : 44 1. Role of India: 44 2. Some Important Visits And Their Outcomes: 45 IV. Developments in China and India-China Relations: I. Introducing People’s Republic of China and Some Political Developments: 46 1. Introducing People’s Republic of China or China: 46 2. Brief History and some Developments: 47 3. Chinese Revolution And Some Developments: 47 4. India and People’s Republic of China -A comparative study: 49

II. India-China Relations: 50 1. Importance of India-China Relations 50 2. History of Sino-Indian Relations 50 (i) 1949-1959: Golden Period: 50 (ii) 1959-1962:Period of Misunderstandings, that culminated in border clashes and tensions, between India and China: 51 3. Issues to be settled between India and China 56 4. Attempts to settle the issues 56 a. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China 1988 56 b. Prime Minister P.V.Narasimha Rao's is visit to China in 1993 57 c. Chinese President Zamin’s visit to India 1996 57 d. Visit of Chinese Prime Minister Rongji in 2002 Feb 58 e. Indian Prime Minister AB.Vajapayee’s visit to China in June 2003 58 f. Visit of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India in April 2005, when Dr.Man Mohan Singh was the Prime Ministerof UPA government 59 g. India-China Summit 61 h. Prime Minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh’s visit to China in Jan08: 61 i. Track II Diplomacy: 61 j. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherji’s visit to Beijing on 6/6/08 61 k. India-China Summit October 2008. 61 l. Indias' Air Chief s' Visits to Beijing. 62 m. India & China Anti - Piracy Cooperation. 62 n. India-China Summit in Russia June 2009. 62 o. Boundary Talks. 62 p. 14th Round Boundary Negotitions. 62 5. Some Achievements 62 6. Some Negative Developments 64 7. Some Developments in 2009 64 8. Some Developments in 2010-High Profile Visits And Meets: 69 9. Some Negative Developments in 2010: 71 V. Developments In Maldives And India-Maldives Relations: I. Introducing Maldives and Some Political Developments:75 1. Introducing Maldives 75 2. Transition to Democracy: 76 3. Presidential Polls: 76 II. INDO-MALDIVEAN RELATIONS: 77 1. Bilatiar Relations: 77 2. Joint Fight Against Terrorism: 77 3. Important Visits and their Outcomes: 77 4. Maldive’s worry about its survival 78 5. Threat to young Democracy of Maldives 78 VI. Developments in Myanmar and India-Myanmar Relations I. Introducing Myanmar and Some Political

Developments till 1990: 80 1. Introducing Myanmar 80 2. Some Political Developments till 1990 81 3. Some political developments in Myanmar After 1990:81 II. India- Myanmar Relations 88 a. Between 1962-93: 88 b. After 1993: 88 c. 2008-09: 91 d. Some important visits in 2010 between India and Myanmar:Their Outcomes: 92 e. Myanmar’s Nuclear Ambitions 93 VII. Major Developments in Nepal And Indo-Nepal Relations I. Introducing Nepal And Some Political Developments :94 1. Introducing Nepal: 94 2. Various political and other Forces: 94 3. End of Monarchy and Emergence of Democratic Republic of Nepal 97 4. Fall of Maoist Prachanda's Government: 99 5. Formation of the Government by CPN(UML) 99 6. Fall of CPN(UML) Government 100 7. Failure to elect a new Prime Minister: 102 8. Rise of Pro-king forces: 103 II. Indo-Nepal Relations: 104 1. Traditional Friendly Relations 104 2. Various Bilateral Treaties: 104 a. Indo-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty (1950): 104 b. Trilateral Agreement. 105 c. Agreement of 1965 related to Royal Army: 105 d. Trade and Transit Treaty: 105 3. Hydro Electric Projects: 105 4. Export of Terrorism by ISI through Nepal: 105 5. About Role of India: 105 6. P.M’s Visit-Tradition: 106 7. Various Official visits between the two countries and their outcome: 106 VIII. Developments in Pakistan And Indo-Pak Relations I. Introducing Pakistan and Developments in Pakistan 108 1. Introducing Pakistan 108 2. Pakistan’s Fragile Democracy 109 a. Chronology of Events upto 2007 109 b. Chronology of Events 2007 111 3. Polls on 18/2/08 for National Assembly and 4 Provincial Assemblies 112 4. Murree Declaration and Government Formation 113 5. Problems to be solved by the New Government 114

6. Series of Political and other crisis in Pakistan and other Developments 115 7. Supreme Court’s verdict holding National Reconciliation Ordinance(NRO) null and void and after 118 8. Unstable situation in Pakistan Continues: 121 II. Indo-Pakistan Relations 1. Introduction: 123 2. Bilateral Issues: 124 a. Issue of Jammu and Kashmir(J&K) 124 b. Siachen Glacier: 126 c. Sir Creek Dispute: 128 d. River Water Disputes: 130 1. Tulbul Navigation project 130 2. Kishen Ganga Hydro Electric project 131 3. Baglihar Hydro Electric Project 132 4. Swal Kot Dam: 132 e. Cross Border Terrorism: 132 f. Nuclear Programme: 133 g. Composite Dialogue: 134 3. Major initiatives to solve bilateral issues and to improve friendly relations 134 i. Tashkant Agreement(1966) 134 ii. Shimla Agreement(1972): 134 4. Various India - Pakistan Summits. 135 a. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto Summit in 1989135 b. P.M Nawaz Sheriff and Prime Minister Chandra Sekhar summit 135 c. Gujral Doctrine was evolved during the United Front Government (1996-98) 135 d. P.M.Vajpayee-P.M Nawaj Shariff Summit 135 e. Agra Summit (2000 July) 135 f. Islamabad Summit (Jan 2004) 136 5. Various visits and meets: 137 6. Some Developments in 2010: 140 7. Pak’s China card: 144 IX. Developments In Sri Lanka And Indo-Sri Lankan Relaions: I. Introducing Sri Lanka and some important Political Developments 148 1. Introducing Sri Lanka: 148 2. Political Parties: 148 3. The Ethnic Tamil Issue: 149 4. The chronology of some events. 149 5. Some attempts to solve the problem of ethnic Tamils:151 6. Eelam War IV: LTTE was crushed - Army won the War IV: 153 7. Future of the ethnic Tamil issue: 155 8. All Parties Representatives Conference (APRC): 157

9. Some developments at the end of Eelam War : 157 10. VIPs Killed by LTTE: 161 II. INDO-SRI LANKAN RELATIONS 162 1. During the Days of Young Independent Countries 162 2. Post Eelam War IV: 163 3. KACHCHATIVU ISLET DISPUTE 166

Afghanistan

I. Introducing Afghanistan and Developments in Afghanistan 1. Introducing Afghanistan which is Bleeding

Afghanistan is located in a strategically important place with an area of 6.5 lakh sq kms. It is bounded on the south:Pakisthan, East:Pakisthan and India(small portion), North:Turkmenisthan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China(in a small portion) West: Iran; Its Population is 1990-1.6 crores. Ethnic composition: Pasthu 52.3%; Tajik 20.3%; Uzbek 8.7%; Hazars 8.7%; Chahar Airrace 2.9%; Turkmen 2%; Baloch 1.0% others 4%/ Religious composition: Sunni 74%; Shia 25% others 1%. GDP: $14.48 billion; GDP Per head 501(2010). Languages: Pasthu, Dari, Persian. It consists of mainly mountainous Region. Most of the population lives in irrigated valley particularly in the fertile valley of the Kabul River in South East(capital Kabul is named after the River Kabul) there are plains along the Northern border where the River Amu Darya flows.

2. Modern History-Milestones up to 1992(End of Soviet occupation)

a. The British Empire and the Russian Czar Empire fought for Afghanistan. In 1880,

following the 2nd Anglo-Afghan war Afghanistan was made the buffer state between British

India and the Russian Empire. After the 3rd Anglo-Afghan war in 1919. Afghanistan gained full independence. b. Afghan king : There is a tradition of resolving disputes in Afghanistan which is endowed with many tribes. Loya Jirga or Grand Assembly of all tribal chiefs will be held to resolve big disputes. It can be said that it is consistent with notions of Western representative Democracy. This system is accepted by the people of Afghanistan and also by modern Afghan constitution. In 1747, the Loya Jirga in Kandhahar selected Ahmad Shah Durrani as the first king. Succession process was followed. In 1973, the last king Zahir shaw was deposed by his nephew Mahamad

Daoud. The two communist parties, who were working underground supported Daoud, who accepted the Common Minimum Programme. The ruler failed thoroughly to implement the programme. The two communist parties merged to form Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan(PDPA) and it came to power in 1978, which shocked the US, Pakistan and king Shaw of Iran, who was dethroned and driven away in 1979 and Iran became enemical to the USA. On 27/4/1978 Noor Ahmad Taraki became the President of Afghanistan who entered into a Peace and Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union. A military council was appointed to help him. c. Military Training for Muslim youth in Pakistan : Many Afghans who were opposed to the rule of PDPA left for neighboring Pakisthan and Iran. USA and Pak who were shocked at the developments in Afghanistan began to destabilize the Government in Afghanistan. In the process, in the name of threat to Islam the CIA-ISI(Central Intelligence Agency of US and the Inter Services Intelligence of Pakisthan) combine could attract young religious people from 40 Muslim nations and could give military training for one lakh people in various Madarsas (Religious schools) in Pakistan. Osama bin Laden, son of a big business man from Saudi Arabia, who has business connections with US President Bush family who started Al Qaeda and Mullah Omar, leader of Afghan Taliban(who later became father-in-law of Osama bin Laden)and many other leaders, who are dubbed as terrorists by USA after 9/11 events were trained there during that time.

d. 1979 : Entry of Soviet Army into Afghanistan : In 1979 Sep, Afghanistan president Taraki was killed and one Amin, who was said to be a pro-American, came to power. But on 27/12/1979, the military council removed Amin and appointed Babrak Karmal as the President of Afghanistan and this man entered into a Peace and Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, the seven Sunni Groups based in Peshavar(Pak)and 8 Shia groups based in Iran intensified their activities against the Afghan Government. The Soviet Union, which hesitated in the beginning to extend military help to Afghan Government, ultimately decided at the end of 1979 and sent its army to Afghanisthan to assist the Government there, which was criticised by many world nations, including China though India supported the Soviet action. Dr.Nazibulla replaced Babrack Karmal in May 1986. Taking advantage of Soviet presence in Afghanistan, USA and its Western allies in cooperation with Pak, especially CIA-ISI combine gave military training to one lakh Muslim youth from various Muslim countries in Pak. [Osama bin Laden of Al Qaeda and Mullah Omar of Taliban are products of the anti-soviet-campaign in Afghanistan.] e. 1989 : Exit of Soviet army : Soviet Union tried its level best to save the communist Governments in Afghanistan at great expense. Soviet Union not only lost its credibility, but also lost more than 20,000 army personnel and also much armaments. There was change of Government in the USSR and President Gorbachev, who proclaimed that the Soviet Union has committed a mistake in sending its army, decided to withdraw the army. Under the auspices of UNO, on 15/5/1988, there was an agreement known as Geneva Agreement between Afghanistan, Pak, USA and Russia. Under the agreement Russia was to withdraw its forces, Pak

and USA not to interfere in Afghanistan and Afghan refugees who are in Pak and Iran etc should be allowed to return and UNO has to monitor the process Accordingly Soviet Union withdrew its army. Afghan President Dr. Nazibullah, who replaced Babrak Karmal in 1986 May started on 15/1/1987 Reconciliation programme and offered talks with the various groups based in Pak and Iran. Dr. Nazibullah agreed to hand over power to those people under the direction of UNO.

f. Genera Agreement flouted : Soviet Union withdrew its army by 15/2/1989, even before the agreed date. The UNO could not prevent interference of Pakisthan and USA in Afghanistan. The Sunni and Shia groups, who were opposing the Government, intensified their fight with the help of USA and Pak,. It is a wonder that Dr.Nazibullah government which was expected to fall immediately after the Soviet withdrawal, could face the onslaught from the rebel forces. The PDPA’s name was changed to Watan (Father Land Party) Party in 1990 June. The membership of the new party was increased to 2 lakhs covering the army, farmers, workers and also intellectuals. Many steps were taken to attract the people. In the fight the party (PDPA)lost more than 40,000 party workers. It could establish bilateral relations with more than hundred political parties in the world. Dr.Nazibulah offered talks with all groups in Afghanistan to form a new Government and offered to resign. He involved UNO and Russia also to form a new Government. Dr.Nazibulah resigned to his post of President on 16/4/1992, giving power to a group of people, facilitating to form a new Government by the rebel groups. g. Brief Account of Rebel Groups : It will be useful to give a brief account of various rebel groups. The special thing about Afghanistan is War Lords, who maintain private armies and used to collect Toll Tax on the High ways. UN estimated that there are 1,20,000 armed men employed by around 5,000 War Lords. A report by Centre for International Cooperation at New York University revealed that one Gen.Nazir Mehmoad, a War Lord in Budkshan province, engaged in opium trade, was on the pay roll of German Military intelligence. The report also says that the Western Governments were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on contracts as security providers. Most of them are War Lords and Human Rights violators. Their services will be leased and not sold. During 1980s there used to be about 80 rebel groups in Afghanistan. But USA, Pak and Saudi Arabia managed to merge them and ultimately emerged 7 groups based in Peshawar (Pak) called Peshawar-7 and 8 groups based in Iran-called Iran-8. The Peshawar groups are mainly Sunni and Pasthu groups while Iran groups are Shia, Tajik, Uzbek etc. Among Peshawar groups the most powerful used to be Hejbi-Islami headed by Hekmatyar, a Pasthu. From the beginning he used to oppose both Soviet and the USA. But it was aided by Pak. He acted as PM during 1992-2001. His aim has been that Afghanistan should be an Islamic State. Another strong Peshawar Group is Jamayiti-E-Islami, and its leader a Tajik known as Panjsher lion was Masood. Both Hekmatiyar and Masood were rivals. But Masood was killed afterwards. Another strong rebel group was one headed by Rashid Dostam, a Uzbek. His base camp used to be in Majare Shariff in Northern Afghanistan. He held defence portfolio in many cabinets during 1992-2001. He was also opposed to the USA. The other groups are Harkat-e-

Islami(leaer-Yunus Khalail), National Liberation Front of Afghanistan( Leader Sayyad Ahmad Gilani).

One thing is clear that all main groups are opposed to any foreign occupation of Afghanistan. That is why they opposed the Soviet occupation and they are now opposing USA occupation. They see the USA as an occupying force. h. President Dr. Nazibullah Killed in UNO Office : The UNO and Russia tried their level best to help to form a new government to replace Dr. Nazibullah Government, who resigned. Some groups never took part in the negotiations. Some participated but failed to implement the agreements. After resignation Nazibullah took shelter in the UNO office in Kabul. But various groups who surrounded Kabul from all sides entered the UNO office and killed Dr. Nazibullah. Thus the civil war ended but it took many lives. The Mujahiddin put the loss to Afghanistan at $645 billion. US is said to have supplied arms worth 2 billion dollars to rebels through Pak. 35 lakh refugees are in Pakisthan.

3. US Invasion of Afghanistan 2001

a. By the time of collapse of Nazibullah government in Afghanistan, the international situation was completely changed. The Soviet Union collapsed and Central Asian Republics, viz Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan all bordering Afghanisthan formed independent countries. In the uni-polar world situation, USA could utilize the services of the Muslim youth trained in Pak Madarsas to its advantage. They were sent to Kashmir, Chechenya, Bosnia, the central Asian Republics etc, to create problems to Russia and India and to install pro-US governments in the central Asian countries. The Muslim youth who were sent to Chechenya could help the separatist movement there and could destroy the oil pipelines from Baku to Russia to prevent oil export. b. The US oil companies Unicol etc, entered into an agreement with Turkmenistan Government to lay a pipeline from Turkmenistan to Karachi(Pakisthan) through Afghanistan to facilitate export of oil and gas. The governments formed in Afghanistan after the last pro Soviet Government of Dr. Nazibullah were pro-USA and pro-Pak governments. The Governments were changed in Afghanistan to suit to the interests of the USA. But no government gave clearance to the Turkministan-Afghanistan-Karachi pipeline. So, ultimately the government under the Taliban (fundamentalist Islamic organization) was brought to power in 1998, knowing that it will be very dangerous to put them in power. But even this Government did not approve the above said pipeline project. Thus all US attempts to obtain approval for the prestigious project failed in spite of change of many Governments. There was competition for the project from companies from Saudi Arabia, Pak etc. Thus US was not happy with the Taliban Government; Though tensions were erupted and war-like situation was created between the Taliban government and Iran, Taliban Government could avert clashes with Iran, an arch enemy of the

USA. The Taliban Government could consolidate its authority in Afghanistan by having deals with all the extremist groups. Pak also was not happy with the Taliban Government as the Taliban Government declared that it will not recognize the Durand line (850 kms) border between Pak and Afghanistan and they claimed the Pasthu areas on the other side of Durand line in Pak. It is to be noted that sanctions were imposed by the UNSC permanent Members as Pakistan conducted atomic tests and declared itself as a Nuclear-weapon State, following India which conducted the tests in 1998. The USA depends upon Pak to tackle Afghanistan on one hand and Iran on the other. Infact USA wanted to take vergence against Iran through Afghanistan. For that it must gain control over Afghanistan.

c. USA organized some missiles attacks against Taliban in Pak but it did not yield any positive results. Even after more than 9 years, still it is not known where Osama bin Laden is or whether he is alive or dead. It is significant to note that Osama bin Laden issued threats that helped Bush to win for the second time when the public opinion was against him when Democratic Party candidate Kerry contested against him in 2004. Now it is revealed that the US army avoided to hold of catch Osama when he was in Bora Bora mountains in Pak in Dec 01. d. Under those circumstances, the shocking events took place on 11/9/01(which is known as 9/11) in which the World Trade Centre in New York was destroyed in which 3,000 people belonging to different Countries (not American and Jews) were killed. The Bush administration declared that Osama bin Laden was responsible for this 9/11 event and he should be brought to justice and as Taliban Government is sheltering him, the Taliban Government should be punished. With the approval of the UNSC, the US and NATO forces invaded Afghanistan in Oct 2001, though the Taliban Government was willing to hand over Osama bin Laden. USA could get cooperation from the central Asian countries in the war against Afghanistan. The operation was known as “Operation Enduring Freedom”[Another version was that 9/11 was a self-infected wound] The answer lies in President Bush’s action in promoting Condolissa Rice as secretary of State, though she, as chief of National Security Advisor, failed thoroughly in preventing 9/11/ event. USA could remove the Taliban Government from power and installed its puppet Hamid Karzai as president. The Karzai Government in Afghanisthan without any publicity granted the Turkministhan-Afghanistan-Pakisthan pipeline to US company in the middle of 2010. Thus US could achieve its dream project and now it is pressurizing India to join it and it is now known as TAPI(Turkministhan-Afghanistan-Pakisthan-India) project.

For the first time the NATO forces under US commander which were intended to operate in Europe only were sent to Afghanistan in Asia. After 9/11 Bush administration declared that fighting international Terrorism will be its priority task and it will lead the campaign and every nation in the world must follow it. It also declared that it has got a right to attack any region or any country in the world if it feels that its interests are threatened.

4. After 9 years of US invasion 1. More than 2000 US soldiers lost their lives.[Evidently the deaths of private army

is not included]. 2. Thousands of Afghans lost their lives, including rebel fighters, innocent civilians. 3. UN described the situation as terrible humanitarian crisis. 4. The capital Kabul has become a capital of widows. 5. It will be shocking to note that so far the US has spent 228.2 billion dollars in

Afghan war. 6. 1,10,000 Armed forces including 68,000 US forces are taking part in the

operations. US commanders in Afghanistan recommended a surge of 30-40 thousand forces to tackle the situation.

7. Analysts say: The 8-years of occupation has not been able even to make a dent in the opium trade, which fetches Taiban about $300 millions a year. The war is un-winnable and it is a losing war. President Obama agreed to send additional forces of 30,000/- He requested France to send additional forces.

8. US proclaims that it is present in Afghanistan to give democracy to Afghanistan, but one can see that there is no movement in that direction. The way the presidential election was conducted in Aug 09, which UN described it as fraudulent and the avoidance of run-off election by pressurising Abdullah Abdullah(he himself said so) to withdraw from the contest and declaring the present incumbent Hamid Karzai as president will not help the democratic process. The namesake democratic process will not help the Afghans.

9. American people are fed up with Iraq and Afghan wars like Britons and Australians. Australians defeated the war monger, the left hand man to president Bush, John Howord. In Britain an enquiry on the then PM Tony Blari, the right hand man of president Bush why he jumped in to Iraq war and there is evidence to this effect that he mislead the parliament and the people.

10. US president Barack Obama, who in his election campaign said that he will continue the war in Afghanistan and that he will organize drone attacks in Pak, even without the permission of the Pak government. declared, after assuming office, that he will continue the Afghan war. His party, the army and the American people are divided on this issue of continuing the Afghan war and sending additional forces. British PM Brown is talking of EXITING from Afghan war. He asked president Karzai to draw plans for sending away foreign forces from Afghanistan. President Obama still did not decide about surge of US troops. Again some analysts say that Afghanistan could be for Obama what Iraq was for President Bush or even what Veitnam for Lyndon Jonson, the then US President.

11. The situation in Afghanistan is not permitting the full distribution of international aid. 40% of the funds were returned to the donors. There were allegations of corruption against President Hamd Karzai that aid packages were misused.

5. Position in Afghanistan (up to the end of 2009)

a. To Wriggle out of Afghanistan, President Obama evolved Afghan-Pak policy; with the aim to involve Pakistan fully and a special US envoy Holbrook was also appointed. In fact US

President Obama wanted to involve India also along with Pak fully in Afghanistan and as a first slip he wanted to appoint a special envoy to Kashmir, which India opposed and eventually it was dropped. But they are continuing attempts to fully engage India in the Afghan war. This issue was discussed at Obama-Manmohan Singh Summit on 25/11/09. b. The Afghan-Pak policy also involves to fight Al Qaeda of Osama bin Laden and leave Taliban. This also creates problem as the Afghanistan Taliban(Pak Taliban-Tehrik-e-Taliban TTP)are killing the American and British soldiers and they are based in Quelta and are aided by Pak ISI and Army. Pak’s aim is to strengthen Afghan Taliban so that it can dilute the growing Indian influence in Afghanistan. At the same time Pak wants the Pak Taliban to melt away. It is to be noted that Afghan Taliban and Pak Taliban are of the same tree and it is unwise to expect one branch to dry away while irrigating the roots. More over these two Talibans, Al Qaeda, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Toyyaba etc are jointly operating. On the other hand Afghan president Hamid Karzai wants to divide the Taliban in to good and bad Taliban and wants to have deal with good Taliban.

c. The CIA instigated, inspired ties between ISI and the Taliban have been consolidated long ago and they are intensified further. But the US wants ISI to disrupt the ties with Taliban which is not happening and is troubling the US. d. President Obama is unable to convince the world how the Al Qaeda which is in the hills and forests of Afghanistan and which is thousands of miles away from the USA is a threat to it. e. It is no exaggeration if one says that Taliban is winning in Afghanistan. Traditionally all Afghan people are opposed to occupying forces. Taliban have a safe haven in Pak and it can continue attacks on US and other military forces in Afghanistan. The drone attacks are counter productive one can say. Both the governments in Pak and Afghanistan are losing credibility due to drone attacks. Taliban is receiving lot of funds not only from opium trade but also from countries like Saudi Arabia, from people if not from the Government. On the last day of the year viz on 31/12/09, a Taliban suicide bomber killed 8 CIA Agents in Afghanistan. It was a great setback to the USA. f. Without any publicity, the US got approval from Karzai Government for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline project which cannot be started so long as the occupying forces are in Afghanistan. India was also involved by the US in the project which is an alternative to Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project. g. Iran’s anti-US role cannot be ignored. Similarly one cannot ignore a similar role of the Shias, Hazars, Uzbeks and Tajiks. h. In Afghanistan the presidential elections were conducted on 28 Aug 2009 by the Afghan Independent Election Commission (IEC) under the oversight of a UN Election Complaints

Commission(ECC). 41 candidates contested including president Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. Total voters were 1 crore 70 lakhs. There were 70,000 police stations. The presidential polls took the situation from bad to worse. In remote areas leaders organized block-voting and the field coordinators went unsupervised. For example in Kunararea, voting occurred only because the US military paid a local warlord to defend positions against possible Taliban attack. In 14 out of 34 provinces, insurgent activity made election monitoring impossible. At one stage both President Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah claimed victory proclaiming they got more than 50% of the polled votes, necessary for a win. But in some areas like Bariz, the tribal leader accused Karzai of fraud and 23,000 voters were stamped. Not only accusation of electoral fraud and all-pervasive corruption, and violence. President Karzai’s brother Ahmed Wali, the most powerful leader of Kandahar in Southern Afghanistan detained polling officers of the two Districts, and shut down all 45 polling stations on the election day and the ballot boxes were taken to Kandahar and stamped all 23,900 ballots in favour of Karzai. The Independent Election Commission(IEC) said that Karzai got 54.1% while Abdullah got 28.31% of votes. But the results are final only after they are certified by the Electoral Complaints Commission(ECC) appointed by the UN. But the ECC alleged fraud and advised the IEC to recount ballots in all states when one candidate got more than 90% of votes. Ultimately it was established that there was huge fraud and no body got more than 50% votes necessary. So run-off was ordered to be held on 7/11/09 between Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah the two leading candidates. But Abdullah pulled out of the contest evidently under pressure. There was news that Karzai’s brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai who is alleged to have been engaged in booming illegal opium trade and who was also on CIA payroll for the last eight years was the force behind the withdrawal drama. On 2/11/09, President Karzai was declared elected as President and was sworn in on 19/11/09. That was how the presidential polls were managed. Under those circumstances, the parliamentary polls due to be held in Feb-March 2010 were postponed to Sep 2010 which were held accordingly.

6. Some Developments in 2010

a. The cabinet appointed by President Karzai was sworn in on 18/1/2010 amid violence by the Taliban militants. The parliament first rejected most of the names of the cabinet originally proposed by the President and it accepted only after major changes. Parliamentary polls scheduled to be held in Feb-March to 2010 were postponed as it was not safe to go ahead to hold them. b. World conference on Afghanistan was held in London on 25/1/2010. India participated as an observer. Iran abstained from attending it. Before that Foreign Ministers of Afghanistan, Pak, USA along with 40 met on 12/11/10 to discuss the Afghan situation. The conference felt that no solution to Afghan problem without India. President Karzai wants a big army to provide security for Afghanistan. The draft document sees 2011 April as the date for handover of

Afghanistan to Afghanistan Government and forces. Though Iran did not attend the conference, India’s External Affairs Minister met his countepart of Iran and discussed about Afghanistan. Another international conference on Afghanistan was held in Kabul on 20/7/10. President Karzai Okayed US new police force to help tackle the growing Taliban insurgency. c. Afghanistan was receiving billions of dollars. There were allegations of fraud and misappropriation. Investigators found that cash leaving Afghanistan is taken out mainly to UAE(United Arab Emirates)and $6 Million on average are being smuggled every day. d. Problems being faced by US and NATO forces -NATO Forces are facing stiff resistance as Taliban vows guerilla warfare in Afghanistan. Afghan bomb killed 8 US army men and thus US

lost the 1000th soldier on 23/2/10. 2010 is considered as the worst year for civilian deaths in Afghanistan. From January to June in 2009, 1059 civilians lost their lives and in 2010, for the same period the figure was 1074. By this time 2000 foreign troops lost their lives in Afghanistan. Taliban attacked US Bagram base located 80 kms North of Kabul in May 2010 and killed 5 US soldiers. British troops who were stationed in Sajagin Region in Helmand province, after suffering heavy losses (UK lost 300 soldiers) decided to pull out its troops of 8,000, which came as a shock to US. Meanwhile it was revealed that there are vast mineral resources worth 3 trillion dollars. British PM Cameron met US president Obama in Washington and said that UK will follow US time-table for with-drawal. NATO chief said in Feb 2010 that broader ties with China, India, and Russia are necessary to tackle the Afghanistan situation. Dutch government, under pressure from its people wanted to withdraw its troops from Uruzzan province and Australia warned that it cannot replace the Dutch forces. US Defense secretary Robert Gates who visited Afghanistan secretly warned tough war ahead in Afghanistan. He accused Iran of supplying arms to the Taliban militants and playing a double game. Ahmadinezad President of Iran denied this and asked him why US, which is 10,000kms away was keeping its army in Afghanistan. Robert Gates expressed his concern about possible misconduct of Black Water, a US private security firm in killing civilians which enraged Afghan people at large, promised to review it. It is to be noted that there are 26,000 private security contractors working for the US Government in Afghanistan. Of them 19,000 work with the military. The security forces have become a mater of tension between the people, the Afghanistan government and the US. There are other private security forces also working in Afghanistan. Thus there are about 40,000 personnel engaged by different security firms. Fed up with them, President Karzai decided in July 2010 to dissolve all private security firms and gave four months time to disband them. But it is not so easy to implement the decision as US will certainly oppose this step. It is to be noted that about 10,000 civilian deaths are there since the US and NATO’s invasion of Afghanistan on 7/10/01. It is also to be noted that there are more civilian deaths during President Obama’s rule in 2009, than under President Bush in 2008. 8/6/10 was the deadliest day for NATO forces in 2010 as 12 soldiers were killed in an attack by the Taliban. In the middle

of June 2010, a report by the prestigious London school of Economies claimed that Pak’s intelligence Agency, ISI has been supporting the Afghan Taliban as part of its official policy which includes funding, training and providing sanctuary to militants, in an attempt to undermine India’s influence in Afghanistan. Though NATO forces could drive away the Taliban from some provinces and handed over them to Afghan forces, the main problem is in Kandaharr, in Southern Afghanistan. The US military’s efforts to oust Ahmed Wali Karzai(AWK) the powerful half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, from power in Kandahar has failed with the top US commander in the region, ordering his forces to work with him and not against him. AWK is regarded by some US intelligence officials as indispensable, but he has long been viewed with mis-trust by American military officers who describe him as an obstacle in their efforts to fight corruption and bolster the rule of law.

-President Barack Obama’s administration announced its decision to begin withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan by July 2011. This decision was taken just six months after President Obama decided to send more troops to Afghanistan. This came under severe criticism especially from General Stanley A.Mechrystal the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. He not only citicised President Obama’s decision but the brain behind it. This resulted in his ouster and he was replaced by Gen.David Petraeus, who was instrumental in developing and executing the Pak-Afghan strategy along with Gen. Mechrystal. After taking charge, after visiting Afghanistan and after studying the situation, Gen.Patraeus observed that there is win-win situation in Afghanistan in July 2010. e. Differences between US Administration and Karzai Government widening Though President Hamid Karzai(a pasthu, powerful race in Afghanistan) was brought and kept in power by the US Administration after Taliban was ousted from power in 2001, as time passes on, lot of differences between the two sides, on many issues began to appear. Of course both sides have been trying to cover this up in their own interests. - Even before his re-election in Aug 2009, President Hamid Karzai could consolidate his power with the help of his close relatives and aides. - President Karzai has been very particular that there is no alternative except to have negotiations with militant groups, for which US and NATO forces are not favorable. As part of his plan, President Karzai met the representatives of Hizbe-Islamic headed by Ex PM of Afghanistan Hekmatyor in March 2010. President Karzai paid a visit to Beijing, met the Chinese leadership and sought their support for his initiatives. Hizbe Islami made it clear that it was ready to make peace in Afghanistan acting as a bridge to the Taliban if the US begin pulling out its troops from Afghanistan in 2011 as planned. Meanwhile the UN started talks with Afghan Taliban and Pakistan made it clear that it was not responsible for the talks. There was news that Afghan Government and Taliban held talks in Maldives in 2010 May, though Taliban denied. It is to be noted that President Karzai observed in May 2010 that the western powers started to realise that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won militarily and that the peace process must

through reaching out to Taliban. It is also significant to note that more than 9 years after ouster, Taliban had made a comeback despite the presence of 1,40,000 US and NATO troops.

- The Karzai government organized Peace Jirga(Assembly) in the first week of June 2010 from 2-5, in Kabul. President Karzai escaped attempt on his life on 2/6/10 on the first day of the peace Assembly. About 1600 delegates from various religious and other forces attended the conference. But the Taliban damned Karzai’s peace overturus plan. The delegates debated a peace plan to end the deadly insurgency despite gunfire and rocket attacks by the insurgents at the conference. The Peace Jirga decided to engage the Taliban in talks and demanded the release of Taliban prisoners. But the Afghan insurgents rejected President Karzai’s peace plan. President karzai visited Taliban Spiritual Home on 13/6/10 and launched the peace plan. The Taliban attacked a major NATO base in Jalalabad in Eastern Afghanistan on 30/6/10. A 65 member High Peace council, the brain child of Afghan President Hamid Karzai was inaugurated on 07-10-2010 with former Afghan President Burha Nuddin Rabbani as President, to broker an end to the war with the Taliban. Rabbani fought against the Soviet Army. He was accused of war crimes. But the Taliban publicly say that they won’t negotiate until foreign troops are in Afghanistan. In the last week of November 2010, the New York Times claimed that the person Mullah Akhtar Mansour, with whom President Karzai held peace negotiations was a Fake Taliban Negotiator. But The President's office denite the report. - President Karzai sought removal of upto 50 Taliban commanders’ names from the UN black list in a gesture intended to advance a political reconciliation. - But US is not for it. But the UN security council obliged president Karzai by dropping the names of five prominent Taliban leaders from its sanctions black list under an national reconciliation plan of Afghan President. - President Karzai whose political survival was doubtful without international help, set 2014 deadline for withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. But there is no guarantee that he will stand by that as the Taliban is very Particular that all foreign troops shall leave Afghanistan immediately and President Karzai has invited talks with them. But the NATO in its Summit meeting in Lisbon (Italy) on 20-11-2010 agreed to start turning over Afghanistan’s Security to the military in 2011 July and give local forces full control by 2014. But NATO and US differ on the point when the International Security Assistance Force, lead by NATO, will leave Afghanistan. While according to NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the NATO forces (which means US forces also) will not stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, the US has not committed to that. But the US strategy towards Afghanistan may be finalise by the US President in December 2010. Even among NATO, different members are taking different positions. Canada declared that its Army personal will not stay beyond 2011. Similarly Spain says 2012 its target to leave Afghanistan.

- President Karzai started asking the West to target military outside Afghanistan, there by meaning Pakistan. - The Afghan Government sought control over Afghan Development Fund of $13 billion at the international conference held in July 2010. - After the release of voluminous classified documents of the US and Afghan war by Wiki Leaks in 2010 July last week, President Karzai could raise his voice and questioned on 30/7/10 why the Western allies are not targeting the Taliban bases in Pakistan. - Concerned over the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the US president Obama on 19/8/10 ordered the establishment of a new office in the State Deportment to help the troubled countries resist extremists and contribute to efforts to enhance civilian control and stable Government in Islamabad. - President Karzai’s office, on 28/8/10, condemned the US media reports that Afghan Government officials have received payments from the CIA in return for information. Afghanistan Government believes that making such allegations will not strengthen the alliance against terror. - On 10/9/10 president Karzai called on Taliban leader Mullah Omar for peace talks aimed at ending the long war in Afghanistan. He also set up a council to pursue peace talks with the Taliban, which is a significant step towards peace talks. - While so, lot of media reports are coming from Washington and London about the alleged corruption in President Karazai’s administration. The Daily Telegraph, London reported on 11/9/10 that president Karzai close relatives and associates own or occupying 12 expensive homes in the Gulf valued at 90 million pounds. f.Parliamentary polls in Afghanistan(WOLESI JIRGA-Lower House of Parliament) The Parliamentary Polls which were originally scheduled to be held in Feb-March 2010 were postponed to be held on 18/9/10. Eligible voters were 11.4 million. 2,500 candidates contested for 249 seats for the Lower House of parliament called WOLSE JIRGA. It is to be noted that political parties were removed from the electoral process in a system designed to prevent Ethnic Factionalism. So not only Presidential Elections and even the Parliamentary polls, candidates contested as individuals. The Parliamentary polls were seen as a litmus test of stability in Afghanistan before US President Obama conducts a war strategy review in December 2010 that will examine the pace and scale of US troops withdrawal from July 2011. Despite the presence of almost 1,50,000 foreign troops, violence was at its worst across Afghanistan. The Taliban, who vowed to disrupt Afghan Parliamentary Polls said that the poll was a foreign process for the sake of further occupation of Afghanistan and they asked the Afghan nation to boycott the polls. Before conclusion of the election campaign, four candidates and dozens of campaign workers were killed and many more were wounded. There are 6835

Polling stations in Afghanistan. The Taliban launched about 150 attacks during Presidential Polls in August 2009, but failed to disrupt it significantly. Apart from security, graft and cronyism were concerns. The UN backed Electoral complaints Commission (ECC) said it was concerned that some public officials were using this positions to help certain unidentified candidates and urged the government to protect the poll’s impartiality and integrity. It is to be noted that Afghan president Karzai assumed full control of the election Commission immediately after he took over as President for the second term. This is the second parliamentary poll since the Taliban were ousted in 2001. The independent Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan(FEFA) criticized the UN backed Electoral complaints Commission(ECC) for taking too little decisive action against government voting misconduct. “Out of more than 580 registered complaints, 310 were reportedly committed by Government officials” FEFA said. The UN has said that about a third of its international staff to either leave or remain outside Afghanistan until after the election, owing to Taliban threat, to disrupt the voting. - It was reported that about 40% of the eligible voters cast their votes on the polling day. Though the Independent Election Commission (IEC) was first expected to announce the final result, on 30-10-2010, it could not on the UN-beaked Electoral complaints commission has

been sifting through 4000 complaints. The IEC said in the 3rd week of October 2010 that 5.6 million votes were cast on 18-09-2010. But it had invalidated 1.3 million of them for reasons including voting irregularities, intimidation and fraud. The credibility of the election was in question. Even before the declaration of results, the Electoral complaints commission on 21-11-2010 disqualified 21 election winners for fraud out of 249 seats. Among in 21, there are 7 sitting M.P’s while one is a first cousin of President Hamid Karzai. The results for announce on 23-11-2010. One Abdullah Abdullah who oposed President Karzai in the Presidential polls, clained the support of 90 members of Parliament. Karzai Government was acused of vote manipulation. The Attorney General Mohamood Ishaq, A Key Karzai aide opened a criminal probe into the final results announced.

II. Indo-Afghanistan Relations a. India has tried to have good friendly ties with Afghanistan, irrespective of who was in power. During President Karzai period, India has been concentrating on the developmental projects in Afghanistan. India is the sixth largest donor with development aid totalling $1.2 billion (Rs.5,880 crores) after Karzai Government has taken charge. India has constructed 218 km Zaranj-Delaran road which was inaugurated in Jan 09. India is helping in construction of Afghan Parliament Building which will be completed by 2011. India constructed a 42 MW salma Dam on the Rud River in Herat province. India gave a hospital-The Indira Gandhi centre for child Health- in Kabul, which was constructed in Sep 09, through a Tele-medicine link with two super specialty medical centers in India. India supplied one million tons of food assistance pledged in 2002. Working with Iran, India is developing the Iranian port of Chah Bar on the Arabian sea coast near the Gulf of Oman. Chah Bar will provide India access to oil and gas refinaries in Iran

and central Asian states. Plans for road and rail construction linking Afghanistan and Chah Bar are under way. One additional point for close relations is that President Karzai was educated in India. All these developmental projects inspite of attacks on Indian people working on the projects and on Indian Embassy in Kabul. There was a suicide bomber attack in July 2008 when 58 were killed and 140 injured on Indian Diplomatic vehicles entering the Embassy in Kabul. In October 2009 also, there was such an attack near India Embassy in Kabul when 17 died and 80 injured. It is well known that Pak and Taliban are against India engaging with the Karzai Government. India is interested in the defeat of the Taliban as a whole and elimination of other terrorist organizations, which are engaged in Kashmir against India.Pak wants the Taliban Government to be restored in Afghanistan so that it can be friendly with Pak while opposing India. Pak accuses India of helping militant separatists movement in Balochistan in Pakistan, which India denies. But this issue found a place in India-Pakistan Joint statement issued after the summit in Egypt in July 09, which raised a big controversy in India.

b. Terror strike in central Kabul killed several Indians on 26/2/10 including three major rank persons. Indian PM Mr. Man-mohan Singh urged president Karzai to take steps to protect Indians in Afghanistan, who are helping in developmental activities. India was upset with the statement of US special envoy to Afghan-Pak, Holbrook that Indians were not the target of Kabul attack. India’s National security adviser Shiv Shankar Menon made an official visit to Kabul in March 2010. It is to be noted that about 4,000 Indians are working in infrastructure developmental projects. India extended 1.3 billion dollars assistance in areas such as health care, education and social sector. President Karzai assumed Menon that he will take all necessary steps to protect Indians in Afghanistan. In spite of the assurances by President Karzai, again Taliban attacked road construction camp on 10/4/10 in Khost province in East Afghanistan. It may be mentioned that 75 were killed in a suicide car bombing outside Indian embassy in Khost in July 08. c. President Karzai was in New Delhi and met PM Dr.Manmohan Singh on his way to SAARC Summit in Thimpu(Bhutan) on 26/4/10. Indo-Afghan bilateral trade was set to be doubled to reach one billion dollars by 2012. d. Afghan Foreign Minister was in India at the end of Aug 2010. India was keen to help build Afghan civil infrastructures. Afghan National Security adviser was in New Delhi on 31/8/10. He made it clear that Kabul had no plans to involve India in training Afghan soldiers and India was helping in strategic projects. He said that Afghanistan wants to make mineral wealth the foundation for his nation’s development. e. India was upset when US special envoy to Afghan-Pak, Holbrook said that there is no common Indo-Afghan border. But India made it clear that the entire state of J&K is an integral part of India which has physical boundary with Afghanistan.

f. TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) Gas Pipeline: India and Pakistan have been trying to have a Gas Pipeline from Iran. Pakistan has already entered into an agreement with Iran to have the Gas Pipeline from Iran. India has been negotiating with Iran for the Gas Pipeline called IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) Gas Pipeline. While so USA have been pressurising Pakistan as well as India to give up the Iran IPI Gas Pipeline and to have TAPI Gas Pipeline. Under Pressure from USA the an agreement was entered into between Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan and India to have this Gas Pipeline.

Bangladesh

1. Introducing Bangladesh:

a. The area of Bangladesh is 1.4 lac sq kms. It is bounded on the West North and East by India except a small portion on South East by Myanmar and South by Bay of Bengal. Its population is 143.4 million. 86% are Muslims and 12% are Hindus. Ethnic composition: Bengalis 87%, Biharis 13%. Official religion is Islam. The GDP is (as on 2010) $94.6 billion. The GDP per head is $583. Taka is its currency. b. Before 1971, Bangladesh was known as East Pakistan. One Mujbur Rehman of Awami League Party (ALP) organized a movement against West Pakistan’s Rule. With the military support from Indian government East Pakistan won the War and Bangladesh was formed in 1971. In 1975 Prime Minister Mujbur Rehman and all his family members numbering at about 14, except his daughter Shaik Hasina who was in a foreign country were assassinated in a military coup (it was reported that CIA was behind this) and Ziur Rehman became the ruler. He was the leader of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). He was killed in 1981 and Genl. Ershad assumed power and ruled till 1990. Then onwards either Khalida Zia of BNP or Shaik Hasina of ALP (Awami League Party) are ruling the country. Either in power or in opposition each one of them used to concentrate on failing the other. Thus Bangladesh used to experience hartals, strikes and bandhs etc. Bangladesh has been experiencing fragile democracy. c. As per the Constitution, immediately after expiry of its term the ruling party will have to handover power to the Chief Justice to facilitate free and fair General Elections. Khalida Zia’s Government’s term expired by June, 2006. But in the name of electoral reforms she continued in power. So on 29-10-2006 the country’s President Iaddin Ahammed who was installed by Khalida Zia’s government dismissed the government on the ground that it violated the Constitution by continuing in power. He appointed a non-party caretaker government headed by the Chief Justice Fazlur Haq. On the complaint by Shaik Hasina of ALP that the Chief Election Commissioner, who was appointed by Khalida Zia was favouring her, he was replaced by another. When Khalida Zia began to protest at the appointment he was also replaced. The

General Elections were scheduled to be held on 22nd Jan.2007. Though Hasina Begum formed

14 party Awami Legue alliance, Khalida Zia 4 party alliance and 11 parties Democratic Left Alliance, Hasina Begum’s 14 party alliance threatened to boycott the polls as the caretaker government wants to hold the local polls before the general elections. Even before this, the Chief Justice resigned as the head of the caretaker government and President assumed those powers also. When the blockade was organized there were clashes between the demonstrators and the security forces, resulting in bloodshed. President imposed state of emergency and appointed Frakruddin Ahmed, a former Bangladesh Bank Governor as head of the caretaker government. Hasina Begum attended swearing in ceremony while Khalida Zia boycotted it. The General elections were postponed. Hasina Begum of Awami League went on a foreign tour.

d. In February, 2007 the interim government barred corrupt people and people with criminal record to contest the polls. Both Khalida Zia and Hasina Begum were charged with corruption, murder, extortion etc., offences. Khalida Zia’s eldest son was arrested on corruption charges. On various charges about 44 ex-Ministers were held and put in jail. Hasina Begum who was on a foreign tour was asked not to return to Bangladesh. Khalida Zia of Bangladesh National Party was asked to go on exile. She asked the Government to allow her eldest son, who is jail to accompany her. But the Government refused her request. The Government prepared a list of 600 people, mostly politicians who can not contest the polls. Thus the country was in turmoil. Under those circumstances, Mohd Yunus, a Nobel Prize winner in 2000 started a new party called Nagara Sakthi (Citizens Power) to contest the polls. Thus the interim Government and the army-backed President wanted to remove the two Begums from politics whom they considered as obstacles for Democracy and good Government. e. Hasina Begum though extended her tour for sometime returned to Bangladesh and she was put in jail. Khalida Zia refused to go on exile and she was also put in jail. Not only political activity in public and political activity in indoors was banned. The High Court asked for the reasons for the arrest of two Begums and the people began to come out into the streets protesting at the arrest of Hasina Begum. The Left Parties came out to condemn the arrest of Hasina. The Interim government arrested 230000 people including 150 high profile politicians and business people. The High Court ordered the release of two Begums and both of them met on 22-11-2007 for the first time after 16 years. Both of them held separate closed- door-meetings with the President and the Army Chiefs. It was decided to hold General Elections on 29-12-2008. 2. General Elections and formation of the Government by Hasina Begum of Awami League: a. The interim government made a U-turn. Emergency was lifted and restrictions on both the Begums were also lifted. General elections were held on 29-12-2008. For a total of 299 seats, 1558 candidates from 39 parties formed into 3 Grand Alliances contested. 75% of the 81 millions voters exercised their franchise.

The Awami League Alliance headed by Hasina Begum won the vast majority of seats (Awami Leagaue 230, Jathiya Party of Genl Ershad 27 and others 5), Bangladesh Nationalist Party Alliance: BNP 27, Jammat-e-islam 1, others 2. The two Begums contested 3 seats each and won all of them. b. Hasina Begum of Awami League became the Prime Minister on 06-01-2009. Ziur Rehman of Awami League was elected President of the country by the Parliament. Prime Minister informed the Parliament that a white paper will be published on Khalida Zia’s rule from 2001 to 2006 which naturally enraged her, she boycotted the Parliament. Eight charges against Hasina were dropped a day before her taking over as Prime Minister and the remaining 12 charges were withdrawn by the government later. c. Even before the government settled down on 26-02-2009 there was a mutiny by Bengal Rifles. 5000 to 6000 participated in which 75 including 56 army officers were killed and the Superior Officers were held hostage. The government sought the help of FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation of US) and Scotland Yard of UK to find out who were behind the mutiny. Bangla Rifles are known for their fight for freedom. Bangla rifles are likely to get a new name viz.Border Guards of Bangladesh (BGB). At present about 2367 local and foreign NGOs (Non Governmental Organizations) are working in Bangladesh. They include 473 local and 25 foreign NGOs approved by the Khalida Zia Government during 2001-06, in the name of helping poor and down- trodden. Now the Government has decided to investigate into the activities of NGOs. d. After independence from Pakistan in 1971, Bangladesh first Constitution made secularism a key pillar. Following the coup in 1975, the Army-led Government amended the Constitution’s guiding principles to put faith in Allah in 1979. Thus the Religious Parties which

were banned in the original 1971 Constitution were legalized by the 5th Amendment. But on 29-07-2010 the Bangladesh Supreme Court by its 184-page sensational verdict, scrapped the bulk of the 1979 fifth Amendment resulting in the banning of the Religious Parties. Thus Secularism will again be the corner stone of the Bangladesh Constitution. In 1998, a second Military- led Government made Islam the State Religion and incorporated Koranic Verse in the Constitution. But these two changes are not affected by the Supreme Court Judgments. But the Supreme Court also held that the 1975-90 military rule illegal and recommended punishing the military dictators.

e. Bangladesh’s Father of Nation Shaik Mujbur Rehman who was best student and student leader was expelled from the Dhaka University on 19-5-1948 for extending strike to a support by class IV employees on the Campus. In August 2010 Dhaka University revoked that expulsion. f. In a Judgment pronounced in August, 2010 the Dhaka High Court in a Judgment held that Offices, Schools and Colleges can not enforce Burqua. This was an another setback to the Islamist forces.

II. India-Bangladesh Relations : 1. Ups and downs in friendly Relations : a. There is a common border of 4096 kms. bordering five States, West Bengal on the West, Assam and Meghalaya on the North, Tripura and Mizoram on the East. The languages of West Bengal and Bangladesh are common. Once Bangladesh was part of India. There are 57 common rivers and rivulets including Ganges and Brahmaputra flowing from India into Bangladesh. Bangladesh is one of the LDC (Least Developed Countries) in the World. It is also one of the members of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) b. There are ups and downs in friendly relations with Bangladesh depending upon who was in power. During the rule of Awami League of Mujbur Rehman and his daughter Shaik Hasina Begum, the friendship curve was on the ascendancy, while during Khalida Zia regime it was on descending curve. 2. The issues between India and Bangladesh can be serialized: a. Boundary Dispute : Though there was a border of 4096 kms. the boundary between West Bengal and Bangladesh is very sensitive. There is an unmarked 6.5 kms., stretch with 120 Enclaves within Bangladesh and 55 in Indian territory. An Enclave is a small valley either Bangladesh or Indian Territory located within the other country. People from these areas have to cross International Borders everyday for their work. The Enclaves issue has to be settled but both sides are unable to solve it as they are unable to convince the people. Indian Ambassador recently said that every year about 25000 Bangladeshis are going to India and stay there. Union Home Minister said that they have no business to crossover India and stay there. Lacks of Bangladesh refugees are in Bengal, Bihar and other neighboring States. To prevent illegal migration India is putting up fencing along the border despite objection from Bangladesh. India has to secure 4096 kms., border by expediting pending work of fencing and laying roads along the border. 60 border control points are to be computerized along the International Border in view the threat from the illegal migrants.

b. Maritime Boundary Issue : This relates to Bay of Bengal which is common to not only India and Bangladesh but also to Myanmar. All the three countries found oil and gas in Bay of Bengal with the result that every country is claiming much Ocean area beyond their exclusive zone, contending that their maritime boundary extends beyond the UN recognized zone as their continental shelf extends beyond that. All the three claims are before UN.

c. Sharing of River Waters : As already noted that there are 57 common rivers. India wants a comprehensive water sharing agreement for sharing river waters. It is true that rivers are flooding Bangladesh. In 1972 itself an India-Bangladesh River Water Commission was

appointed. Bangladesh is not cooperating in making it to work. Bangladesh agreed to allow India to build a barrage on Ganges at Farakka in West Bengal in 1996, as per the historic agreement between Hasina Government (1996-2001) and PV Narasimharao Government in India. It was completed within a short time. Farakka Barrage is very useful for both India and Bangladesh. On the allegation that India is not providing 34000 cusecs of water to it, Bangladesh has been internationalizing the issue by raising it in the UNO and SAARC Meetings. The water from the Farakka Barrage will be useful to help the Kolkata Port if the water is sent into Hugli River. India is unable to send sufficient water into Hugli river from Brahmaputra and water is being wasted as it flows into Bay of Bengal. India proposed two alternatives to utilize the water. Either a similar barrage can be built on the river Brahmaputra or the water in Brahmaputra can be let into Ganges at Farakka. But Bangladesh is not agreeable to either of the proposals. Bangladesh is against constructing any barrage on any river in India. On the other hand Bangladesh is asking India to negotiate with Nepal to construct barrages on the rivers there so that flooding in Bangladesh can be avoided. Thus both countries are taking two different contradicting approaches. So, till now there is no river water sharing agreement.

d. Tipalmukh Dam and Hydro Electric Project in Manipur: India is constructing one earth dam 500 mts down stream from Barak and Tulvai Rivers on the South Western corner of Manipur. It is intended to collect the flood water in the Cachar plains of Assam and to have an Hydro Electric Project with a capacity of 1500 mw. But Bangladesh is opposing this project mainly on two grounds viz., the project will impose a great environmental threat to Bangladesh and India will draw water from the Barak resulting no water to the downstream of Barak which are Meghna, Kalini, Susma and Kushairn rivers. The opposition led by Khalida Zia is making a big issue. India agreed to the Hasina Government’s proposal to send an all party team to inspect the construction site. e. Cross Border Terrorism: The seven sister states of North East India are infested with many separatist terrorist organizations. Some of them are ULFA (United Liberation Front of Assam), ATTF (All Tripura Tiger Force), NDFB (National Democratic Front of Bodoland), HNLC (Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council) of Meghalaya etc. It is a known fact that all of these organizations are operating from Bangladesh having their bases there in Bangladesh, with the help of ISI (Inter Services of Intelligence) of Pakistan. Bangladesh has become a safe haven for these besides Myamar and Bhutan. Without the cooperation of Bangladesh, it will be very difficult to curb their activities by the Indian Security Forces. The terrorist organizations in North East have intensified their activities of terror in India during the Khalida Zia rule. During the interim Government rule the Bangladesh army helped India by handing over some terrorists. Similarly Shaik Hasina’s Awami League Government also promised to extend its help in combating cross border terrorism. Two ULFA leaders were handed over to India recently. Hasina Government also proposed the creation of South Asian task force to comebat cross border terrorism.

3. Some Positive Developments and Agreements: Bangladesh can be considered as a gateway to India’s North Eastern States and to the South Asian countries such as Myanmar etc. Better transport and transit facilities in and through Bangladesh will be very useful for the development of India’s North East. They will also be helpful to improve the relations between India and South East Asian Nations

a. Cooperation on Sunderbans Eco-System: Sunderban region with a group of islands is one of the largest mangrove forest, spread over to an area of 140000 hectors on the delta of Ganga, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers close to the Bay of Bengal. The site is a well known habitat for famous Bengal Tigers and a wide range of Flora and Foma. The Sunderban reserved forests borders India and Bangladesh. It is a globally significant eco system with rich bio-diversity and natural resources. The group of islands in Sunderban islands has been diminishing fast as they are sinking into the sea due to rise in temperatures due to climate change on account of Global Warming. In order to protect the eco system in this region India and Bangladesh have launched a forum known as Indo-Bangladesh Sunderbans Eco System Forum. The Forum will include the non-Governmental organizations and civil society from both the countries. The Forum will coordinate efforts in aforestation, management of mangroves and conservation of Tigers. The project will be funded by World Bank and will be executed every 5 years. The Forum was launched in September 2010.

b. Road links between India and Bangladesh : The Kolkata-Dhaka bus service was started in 1999 and Dhaka-Agartala bus service was started in 2001. There is a plan for laying of Asian Highway Routs in Bangladesh connecting India and also Myanmar. Maitri Express was launched to revive railway link between Kolkata and Dhaka that had been shut for 43 years. c. The inland water transport and travel protocol : This was first signed in 1972. It was to be renewed every two years. After some break it was renewed in 2007 and also in 2009. d. Kolkata-Gawhati River Route : India proposed Kolkata-Gawhati River Route via Bangladesh and Maitri Express: to be extended to Agartala (Tripura) from Dhaka. e. Vested Property Return Act : Bangladesh cabinet recently approved the Vested Property Return (Amendment) Act 2001 for restoring property seized from minority groups, mainly Hindus during the East Pakistan era. The minority Hindus will be benefited by this. f. Trade : Bangladesh is the largest trading partner of India in this region. The major items of export are food grains, machinery, coal etc. The major imports from Bangladesh to India are, raw jute, leather, inorganic chemicals, jambani sarees etc. g. Visit of Bangladesh Army Chief : During February 2008 the Bangladesh Army Chief Moeen Ahmed visited India and met both Military and Political Leadership to boost defense, transport and trade ties. He also honored the Indian Army soldiers who died during Bangladesh Liberation war. h. Indira Gandhi Award for Haseena Begam : Bangladesh Prime Minister Haseena Begum was chosen for Indira Gandhi Peace Prize on 19-11-2009. i. Handing over of top JEM Lead : Top JeM (Jaishi-e-Mohammed) militant Nannu Meer alias Bilal Mardal, who played a key role in the hijacking of Indian Aeroplane in 1999from Kathmandu to Khandahar (Afghanistan) was arrested in 2010 and handed over to Indian authorities by Bangladeshi officials.

j. Security Force Meet : The coordination conference of Indian BSF (Border Security Force) and BDR (Bangladesh Rifles) was held in New Delhi in March 2010. k. Visit of Bangladesh Army Chief : Bangladesh Army Chief General Mohammed Abdul Muhan met his Indian counterpart Deepak Kapoor in New Delhi in March 2010 and both decided to strengthen military ties.

l. Meet of Joint River Commission : The 37th meeting of Joint River Commission (JRC) –

Ministerial level and the Treesta (river) talks were held in New Delhi the 3rd week of March 2010. They came to an understanding that they would finalize the Treesta Agreement in one year. 4. Visit of Prime Minister Shaik Hasina Begum to India - 10-12 January 2010 New chapter in Bilateral ties: a. Previous Visit of Hasina Begam its out came : Prime Minister of Bangladesh Shaik Hasina Begum, daughter of Shaik Mujbur Rehman, leader of Awami League officially visited India. In January 2010 Awami League was in power earlier on two periods from 1971 to 1975 for four years and from 1996 to 2001 for 5 years totaling 9 years. The other 30 years Bangladesh was ruled by pro-Pakistan, pro-US and anti-India Islamist forces. When the present Prime Minister Hasina Begum was in power during 1996-2001 with thin majority two historic agreements were concluded with India. One: sharing of Ganga Water Treaty resulting in construction of Farakka barrage and two: Chakma Refugees Accord which paved the way for the return of thousands of Chakma refugees to Tripura. It gave a warning to the other insurgent groups of North East India based in Bangladesh. b. P.M’s Meeting the Opposition in Dhaka before India Visit: Shaik Hasina won the

Parliamentary election in December, 2008 with 2/3rds majority. When the Prime Minister was about to visit India, the opposition BNP leader, former Prime Minister Khalida Zia who kept away from attending Parliament for almost one year, opened her mouth and warned Hasina unless the agreements with India are in our national interest she will face music in Bangladesh. c. Summit of Prime Ministers Hasina Begam and Dr. Man Mohan Singh in New Delhi and the Outcome: Prime Minister of Bangladesh Shaik Hasina Begum held extensive talks with Indian Prime Minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh and other Ministers on various bilateral, regional and international issues. She also met UPA Chair Person Sonia Gandhi. She visited the ailing former Prime Minister I K Gujral. The agreements and the outcome of her visit can be serialized thus: i. Credit line of one Billion Dollars : India announced a credit line of one Billion US Dollars (Rs. 4500 crores) to Bangladesh for strengthening its infrastructure. This is the highest-ever credit extended by India to any country.

ii. On combating Terrorism : Prime Minister of Bangladesh once again reiterated that Bangladesh soil will not be allowed to be used for any terrorist activity against India. India also committed to the same. It is to be noted that Dhaka recently helped India in apprehending key insurgent leaders like Arabindu Raj Khova etc. Three Pacts relating to Mutual Legal Assistance in criminal matters, transfer of sentenced prisoners, fight against terror, organized crime and illegal drug trafficking were signed iii. Sharing of river water and related matters : Prior to Prime Minister visit the Water

Resources Secretaries of India and Bangladesh met in Dhaka on 4th and 5th of January 2010 and discussed this issue and talks will be continued. iv. Treesta River Project : like Ganges this river is very important to Bangladesh. Treesta Project has an ayacut of 7.5 lakh hectors and they want to bring another one lac hectors in to this ayacut. Bangladesh wants at least a short term agreement regarding this. The talks would be continued. But India agreed to undertake dredging work in Ichhamati River from February, 2010 and also to protect walls along 6 rivers. v. Trade and transit facilities : Bangladesh will allow India to use Mongla and Chittagong Sea Ports for the movement of goods to and from India through road and rail. India agreed to give transit route from Bangladesh to Nepal and Bhutan and vice versa. It was agreed that Ashuganj in Bangladesh and Silghat in India shall be ports of call. The construction of Akhaura-Agartala Railway Lines to be financed by grant from India.

vi. Power Sharing : Both agreed to setup 130 km power transmission link between Behrampur in India and Behramara in Bangladesh. Out of 130 km link, 45 km will be in India. It will be at a cost of Rs.885 cores. India agreed to supply 250 mw and another 200 mw of power depending upon the requirement of Bangladesh. India agreed to setup some power projects in Bangladesh. India assured Bangladesh that it will not take steps on the Tipaimukh Hydel Project if that will adversely affect Bangladesh. vii. Maritime Boundary Issue : Both agreed on the need to amicably and democratically

solve the maritime boundary, taking into consideration the Law of the Seas. On 12th Jan., 2010 Prathibha Devi Singh Patil conferred the Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development for 2009 on Prime Minister Shaik Hasina in the presence of Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and others . It carried a cash prize of Rs. 25 lacs. Shaik Hasina recalled how her family took political asylum and stayed in New Delhi for 6 years before the formation of Bangladesh. It can be said that Prime Minister Hasina’s visit has taken the bilateral friendly relations to a new height. viii. Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukharjee made an official visit to Dhaka on 7-8-2010.

This is the first visit by a key Indian figure after the visit of Prime Minister Hasina Begum to India. He witnessed the signing of one Billion Dollar credit line to Bangladesh with Rs.1.75% of interest per annum. Bangladesh agreed to revive the land customs posts along the Tripura Mizoram Border.

Bhutan

1. Introducing Bhutan:

a. Bhutan (Bhutanese name DRUK-YUL) is situated in the Himalayas. It’s area is 18600sq kms. It's capital is Thimpu. It’s population is 15 lac. It is strategically positioned between Tibet(China) and India on it’s North East. It is the second poorest country in the world. In some places in Bhutan where the height was more than 21900 ft., snow and glaciers are permanent. A major feature of Bhutan’s climate is the frequency of violent thunder storms, from which Bhutan got the name – land of the Thunder Dragon. More than half of the population are of Tibetan origin known as Bhutia’s, with minorities of Nepalees in the South and Indians in the East. It is a Buddhist country. Postal services were introduced in 1970 only. Bhutan has many mineral deposits. It is a tourist destination also. b. In 1865 part of South Bhutan was annexed by the Britishers and a treaty was concluded in which Britain agreed to pay an annual subsidy. In 1910Britain undertook not to interfere in its internal affairs and Bhutan agreed to be guided by the Britain in its external affairs.

2. Absolute Monarchy replaced by Democratic Monarchy: a. Almost till the end of the last century there was absolute Monarchy in Bhutan, with no political and human rights. There were no political parties and no democratic government. But fearing about the impact of wave of Democratic Movements in the neighboring Nepal, which threatened the existence of monarchy, the Bhutanese king started taking certain steps towards replacing the absolute monarchy with democratic monarchy. King Jigme Wangchuk, after 34 years of his rule, in 2006 resigned and appointed his son Nangyal Wangchuk as the King and he himself undertook the campaign to implement the democratic process.

b. The Ex-King toured all the 20 Districts in Bhutan and appealed to people to rule the country by themselves, which the people never understood. The Chief Justice was requested to head the committee for drafting a Constitution for the country and the constitution was prepared which provided for two Houses of Parliament viz., National Council (Upper House) with 20 seats for 20 Districts ( one seat for one District) and 5 Members to be nominated by the King. The Lower House (National Assembly) will have 47 seats.

c. With great difficulty the ex-King could start two political parties viz., Bhutan Peoples United Party and Peoples Democratic Party. Elections were held for National Council (Upper House) on 31-12-2007. But the elections could be held only in 16 Districts as nobody came forward to stand for the elections in other districts. Elections for 47 seats for National

Assembly (Lower House) were held on 24th March, 2008. Both the Parties published the Election Manifestos and submit ted the audited accounts of election expenditure.Total voters were 6.7 lac. Peoples Democratic Party won 44 of the 47 seats, while Peoples United Party got 3 seats.

d. A cabinet was formed with Jigme Y Thinley as Prime Minister. Foreign Minister and Defense Minister and other Ministers were also appointed. Thus a name sake Democracy was given to people. The Constitution provides for the removal of the King by the Parliament with two-thirds majority. The ex-King who fixed the tourist figure at 6000 per year to avoid outside contact with the people, who may go for Democratic Movements like in Nepal, has chosen the other route. Only time will prove whether the King was right. II. Indo-Bhutanese Relations: 1. Role of India : a. Bhutan, a landlocked country bounded on three sides by India, maintains good relations with India. The credit of making Bhutan a Buddhist country goes to India when Indian Buddhist Padma Sambhava introduced Buddhism there in 747 AD. When Chinese Kings and Chinese occupiers made claims for Bhutan, the King entered into a friendship treaty in 1910 with British India. Then Bhutan agreed to be guided by Britain in its external affairs. After India gained independence in 1947, the same spirit continued. Bhutan was invited by Pandit Nehru, the then Prime Minister to participate in Asia Relations conference in 1947. A Peace and Friendship Treaty between India and Bhutan was signed in 1949 which provided for peace and friendship, free trade and commerce etc. Art. 2 of the Treaty calls Bhutan to seek India’s advice in External Affairs, while India pledged not to interfere in its internal affairs. It can be said that Bhutan has been India’s Protectorate State and it depends upon India for external security. There were occasions when Bhutan acted against the treaty. For example in 1979 Bhutan voted in the United Nations against India and in favor of China. Yet in many countries Bhutanese interests are looked after by Indian officials. b. Bhutan joined SAARC(South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation) and NAM(Non-Aligned Movement) also which helped for enhancement of co-operation between the two countries further. Bhutan depends upon India for its economic assistance. In 1968 a Special Officer of the Government of India was appointed in Bhutan. c. India helped Bhutan in establishing many projects besides assisting in its security and defense sectors. Bhutan started in 1961 the Five Year Plan like India. The first two Five Year Plans were completely financed by India only. India’s assistance was increased gradually and

steadily from Rs. 107 millions in the First Five Year plan to Rs 19000 million at present. India’s assistance extended to education, health and agriculture. India’s Border Roads Organization helped Bhutan in laying roads in Bhutan. Some Hydro Electricity Projects were jointly executed by Indian and Bhutanese companies. Some of them are Chhukha Kurichhu and Tala Projects with a total capacity of 1020 mw besides two cement factories. India is purchasing a lot of electricity from Bhutan.

2. SOME IMPORTANT VISITS AND THEIR OUTCOMES : a. Bhutanese king Namgyal Wangchuk visited New Delhi in Feb 2007. India signaled a historic shift in its policy towards neighbors and signed a new Friendship Treaty replacing the old 1949 one. The new Treaty allows Bhutan more independent foreign policy. It allows Bhutan to import arms, ammunition, machines, and warlike material from other countries. The new Treaty was signed by the King and the then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the presence of Dr. Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister. b. External Affairs Minister visited Thimpu in July 2007 and a milestone agreement was signed to construct a big Hydro Electricity Project with a capacity of 1095 mw at a cost of Rs.3500 crores, which will be 40% aid and 60% loan. India will purchase half of the electricity from Bhutan. This is the fourth Hydro Electricity Project and the said two projects are in the process. By 2020 India will purchase 5000 mw from Bhutan. c. Indian External Affairs Minister S M Krishna has chosen Bhutan for his first foreign visit after assuming office in the middle of 2009. He flagged off Air flight from the Air Port built with India’s assistance. Foreign Secretary Sivasankar Menon accompanied him. They reviewed the whole gamut of bilateral relations, regional and international issues. d. Bhutanese King visited New Delhi in December 2009. Four MOUs (Memorandum of Understandings) were signed for Projects relating to Hydal Power and Super Specialty Hospital at Thimpu. India agreed to import 10000mw. of power from Bhutan. Bhutan asked for a railway line from India to Bhutan which is under consideration. e. The bilateral trade is on the increase. In 2001 it was $22.17 mill-ion. In 2006-07 it was $198.79 million and 2007-08 it was $281.17 million. Bhutan exports 90% of its total exports to India. The main items are electricity, mineral products, products for chemical industries, and metals. f. The militant groups like ULFA(United liberation Front of Assam), NDFB(National Democratic Front of Bodoland) have been using Bhutan’s territory as their hideouts. India expressed its unhappiness with Bhutan on that account. Some years ago at Bhutan’s request India helped to remove the bases of the above terrorist groups in Bhutan. But the terrorist groups could acquire some hideouts in Bhutan by now.

People’s Republic of China

I. Introducing People’s Republic of China and Some Political Developments :

1. Introducing People’s Republic of China or China :

The area of China is 95.6lakh sq kms. It is the third biggest country in the world after Russia and Canada. China occupies one fourth of Asian land mass and bordering 14 countries such as Russia, Mongolia, Kazakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Vietnam etc. Population wise, it is the biggest nation in the world and the population stands at 133 crores. Ethnic composition : Han(Chinese):92%, Chuang: 1.4%, Manchu: 0.9%, Hui: 0.8%, Miao: 0.7%, Uighur: 0.6%, Yio: 0.6%, Tuchin: 0.5%, Mongolian: 0.4%, Tibetan: 0.4%, others 1.7%

Religious Affiliations: Non-Religious: 71.2%, Chinese Folk religion: 20.1%, Buddhist: 6%, Muslim: 2.4%, Christian: 0.2%, others 0.1%. Currency : Yuan. Gross Domestic Product(GDP) : $ 5745 billion GDP per head : $ 4283 2. Brief History and some Developments : a. Brief History : Like India, China also has ancient civilization dating back to 5,000years. China was a divided nation of quarreling kingdoms. Qin Shi Huang-di(259-210 B.C) is said to be the first emperor of Unified China. The Great Wall of China which was 2,000 kms in length extending from eastern sea coast to central Asia was completed during the rule of the first emperor. So many dynasties ruled China. Ming, Manchu or Qing are important among them. The Manchu dynasty ruled China for 268years. Emperor Puyi(1906-1967) known as Xuan Tong was the last emperor of China. He was crowned in 1908 at the age of two years.

b. In the 19th century itself Hong Kong was ceded to the British Empire and Macao was decided to Portuguese imperialists. Similarly in 1895 China was defeated in the war with Japan and Taiwan and Korea were ceded to Japan.

c. By early 20th century China was disintegrated into the hands of many warlords who were quarreling with one another. In 1905, the western educated Sun yat-Sen founded

Koumintang(Nationlist party). By 1912 many uprisings threatened the king’s dynasty. On 1/1/1912 Sun yat-Sen ousted the king and declared himself as the president of the New Republic of China, with his capital at Nanjing. The army general Yuan Shekai was called to quell the rebellion. But the army general, instead of quelling the rebellion, negotiated with Sun Yat-Sen and replaced him and became the president of the new Republic of China. Sun Yat-Sen turned to Soviet Union for help but with no positive response. The Chinese communist party which was founded in 1921, cooperated with the Kounintang to fight the warlords and also the foreign occupiers. By 1926 chang kai-Shaik became the leader of that Nationalist party cooperated with the communists till 1937, when he turned against the communists led by Mao Zedong. Communists started their armed struggle first liberating the rural areas and then urban areas with the Long March. But the aim of the communist party to create a modern state was thwarted by Japanese invasion in 1931 and 1937 and their campaign against communists. Japan occupied some parts of China.

3. Chinese Revolutions And Some Developments : a. In the second world war (1939-1945) Japan was defeated and after the second world war full-scale civil war broke out and Chang Kai Shek’s Nationalist party was defeated. The anti-communist Japan and the west facilitated Chang Kai Shek to establish Republic of China basing

in Taiwan, which was ceded to Japan in the 19th century. The Peoples Revolution led by the communist party was successful and the communist party came to power on 1/10/1949. The People’s Republic of China established by the communists was not recognized by the west and not the communist China, but the Nationalist Republic of China got membership in the United Nations and also in the UN security council. b. Unbridgable all-round differences, including Philosoppal cropped up between Mao Zedong-led communist party and also Peoples Republic of China with the Soviet Union and Soviet Communist party. The differences between the two communist giants affected the communist and workers parties almost all over the world, resulted in the division of the world communist movement. c. In 1966 Mao Zedong launched the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution to eradicate revisionism. Mao died in 1976 and attempts by a radical faction-called the Gang of Four including Mao’s widow Jiang Qing- to come to power was thwarted by their arrests. They eventually received suspended death sentences. Deng Xiaoping became a dominant force in the communist party and helped the country to achieve modernization. After his retirement from the party and the Government in 1987, Zhao Zhiyang took the reigns of the party and the Government. But without any position in the party and the Government, Deng who had considerable influence guided the party and the Government to achieve great many successes. d. Taking advantages of the enemical relations between the Soviet Union and People’s

Republic of China, in the cold war period, the USA which was interfering in the internal affairs of China by helping the uprising in Tibet, came to an agreement in 1972 with China. The result was the Communist People’s Republic of China was given not only the

membership in the UNO and also the permanent membership in the UN security council, replacing Taiwan, which lost its membership in the UNO also. USA committed itself that Tibet and Taiwan are integral parts of China. Thus China began to play a significant role in the world politics.

e. The present head of the State of People’s Republic of China, President Hu Jintao and the

head of the Government, premier Wen Jiabao, following the legacy of Deng could help all round development of China, which is playing a significant role in world politics, especially in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and East European Socialist countries.

f. China hosted successfully the Olympic Games in 2009 and got appreciation not only

from the world of sports and also world at large. II. India-China Relations : 1. Importance of India-China Relations Both India and China are world’s top two populous countries and nuclear weapon states. Both are anti-imperialist countries and great neighbors with 4060kms border. China is a powerful permanent member of UN Security Council, while India has got all the requisite qualification to become a permanent member of UN Security

Council with veto power. Admittedly 21st century is Asia’s, which naturally means that both countries together can play a significant role not only in Asia but also in the world as well. 2. History of Sino-India Relations : i. 1949-1959 : Golden Period : This period can be considered as Golden Period in India-China Relations. Both India and China are proud to have ancient cultures of more than 5,000 years old. At certain periods Buddhism dominated both the countries. Both countries are proud of having good friendly, cultural and trade relations in ancient times too. There used to be about 7,000mile trade route called Silk route from China to Rome in Europe, touching India, Persia, and Middle East etc. Both countries supported each other in their anti-imperialist struggle. Pandit Nehru who was actively participating in the anti-imperialist British struggle in India visited China in 1939 to extend support to China’s struggle against Japanese imperialism. During that period Indian freedom fighters organized a medical team China under the able leadership of Dr.Kotnis to give medical assistance to the Chinese fighters. Dr.Kotnis spent his last days in China and died there itself. China acknowledged Dr.Kotnis service and built a memorial for him in China. Some of the Indian notables who contributed for friendly relations between India and China were Pandit Nehru, Nobel Prize winner Rabindra Nath Tagore, M.N.Roy, Ros Behari Bose etc. India, which became independent in 1947, recognized People’s Republic of China in 1949 itself and became the second country to recognize it, the first being Burma(Myanmar). India and China established diplomatic relations in 1950 itself, even though the USA and some Western countries recognized Taiwan as real China and facilitated membership to it in UNO and UN Security Council. USA recognized People’s Republic of China only in 1971. Chinese Prime Minister Chow-En-Lai visited India in 1954 and Indian people gave a rousing reception to him. The friendship between the two countries was hailed in both

countries and the slogan Hindi-Chini, Bhai Bhai became very popular. Historic Panch Sheel (Five Principles which were considered as pillars of friendship between the two nations) was signed in 1954. PM Pandit Nehru also visited People’s Republic of China in 1954 along with his daughter Indira Gandhi who were received by the people with great enthusiasm wherever they went. The visits of both the prime ministers took the friendly relations to a new level. The trade agreement concluded between the two countries in 1954 when Chinese Prime Minister visited India helped for improvement of bilateral economic and trade relation to a higher level.

ii. 1959-1962 : Period of Misunderstandings, that culminated in border clashes and tensions, between India and China: a. The main and the sole reason for misunderstandings, tensions and border clashes was the border problem between India and China. Border problem will always be a sensitive problem. So, one must be very objective while tracing the history and analyzing the border issues. India and China took two different and contradictory positions regarding the border problem. While India asserts that the border, between India and China was defined, China’s position was that the border was not defined. Let us objectively check up the actual position. b. It is to be noted that before India got independence it was under British occupation, while China was under Japanese occupation before 1949 Chinese Revolution. There is a long border of 4060kms between India and China. It could be divided into mainly two parts or sectors viz Eastern sector and Western sector. The Eastern Sector : According to India, the Eastern sector border line is known as Mc Mahan Line, named after a British survey official. But China made it clear that it never recognized Mc Mahan line as the border between India and China. Mc Mahan line starts from the point where India, China and Myanmar (Burma) meet and moves Westwards separating Tibet(China) and Arunachal Pradesh, Bhutan, Sikkim, and Nepal. But China disputes Mc Mahan line and claims 83,000sq kms, the whole of Arunahcal Pradesh, which lies to the south of Mc Mahan line. While India claims Sikkim as its integral part, China disputes it and contends that Sikkim is an inaprudent nation like Bhutan and Nepal. The Western sector : It starts at the North Eastern point of Nepal. The borderline separates Tibet(China) from Nepal, Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh Region of Jammu and Kashmir and also including Aksai Chin lying between Karakoram mountains and Kunlun Hills. Aksai Chin will be at a height of 17,000 feet and it connects Tibet with Sinkiang province of China. China considers Aksai Chin as a very strategic area. China contends that Western sector border line also was not settled. But so far as India’s position was concerned there was a controversy. While Prime Minister Pandit Nehru made it clear that this Western sector was also defined, the then Home Ministry headed by Sardar Vallabhai Patel disputed the claim of pandit ji. Aksai Chin covering about 38,000sq kms is in possession of China and India contends that China is in illegal position of it. Admittedly Pakistan in 1963 ceded to China some area in POK(Pak occupied Kashmir) which is on the Western side of Aksai Chin. China constructed a high way connecting Tibet and Sinkiang province.

c. It will be useful to recall some relevant facts regarding the border dispute especially about the Western sector. There is no historical evidence to show that the border between India and China was determined at any point of time, which subsequently led to misunderstandings between India and China after they became independent countries. The

British India rulers, who ruled India for some centuries, who were interested in their own business and other beneficial activities never shown any interest to determine the boundary between India and China. Moreover the Western sector between the trijunction point where India, Afghanistan and China meet and the trijunction point where India, China and Nepal meet, was not very much useful for human inhabitation. For defining and securing the Western sector, the rulers have to spend a lot and that too without any monetory benefit or political gain. Moreover the Czarist Russia King who ruled Russia till 1917 was enemical to Britishers and both of them fought with each other in the First World War. So, British rulers have never shown any interest to determine the Western sector and they have determined the Eastern line, unilaterally, even without considering or discussing or taking into confidence the other side, viz the Chinese rulers. The Western sector was not defined was evident from two white papers published by the Indian Home Minister headed by Sardar Vallabhai Patel, whose ideology was different from that of prime Minister Pandit Nehru. The first white paper was published in 1948 July and the other in 1949 October which made it clear that the Western sector was never determined and the Mc Mahan line defining the Eastern sector was not accepted by China. But whatever reasons may be, neither side took any interest to discuss the border issue even though on 29/4/1954 both India and China entered into an agreement called Panch Sheel, relating to Tibet, in which India accepted Tibet as integral part of China. Not only that Chinese Prime Minister visited India in June 1954 and Indian Prime Minister Pandit Nehru visited China in Oct 1954 but the border issue was never raised by either side, even though both sides were aware that the boundary was not determined. But the issue was in Panditji’s mind was evident when PM Nehru wrote as follows: “we should establish check points at all disputed points, where ever they might be and our administration should be right up to these borders” (selected works of Jawaharlal Nehru volume 25, page 470.) Again in another letter on 18/6/1954 to the same secretary General with the following content: “No country can ultimately rely upon the permanent good will or bonafides of another country. A Sino-Soviet rift is conceivable, that our relations with China might worsen. We must not be taken unawares. The agreement on Tibet is not a permanent guarantee. Of course both the Soviet Union and China are expansive”(Selected works of Jawaharlal Nehru volume 26, page 477).

Again in his letter dated 01/07/1954, Prime Minister Nehru directed the Secretary General thus: ‘In future we should give up references to the Mc Mahan Line or any other frontier line by date or otherwise. We should simply refer to our frontier’ line ‘All our old maps dealing with this frontier should be carefully examined and where necessary, withdrawn. New maps should be printed showing our Northern and North Eastren frontier without any reference to any line. These new maps should also not state there is any undemarkated territory. The new maps should be sent to our Embassies abroad and should be introduced to the public generally and be used in our schools and colleges etc..’ “This frontier should be considered a firm and definite one which is not open to discussion with any body….. It is necessary that the system of check-posts should be spread along this entire frontier. More especially we should have check-posts in such places as might be considered disputed areas” (Selected Works of Jawaharlal Nehru volume 26, page 481). d. Moreover Prime Minister Pandit Nehru in his reply dated 22/3/1959 to the letter of Chinese Prime Minister Chow-en-Lai proposing to discuss the border issue, stated that there

was nothing to be discussed. In Aug-Sep 1959 the Government of India stated that the Aksai Chen which is on the Western sector was a disputed area. Again in November 1959, the Government of India changed its mind and said that it stuck to the original position that the Western sector of the border was settled.

- In 1960 April, Chinese Prime Minister Chow-En-Lai specially came to New Delhi with the sole purpose of discussing the border issue with Prime Minister Pandit Nehru. But the later refused to discuss about the border issue as there was nothing to be discussed as the border was settled. There was news that China was prepared to recognize Mc Mahan line and the Western sector was the only issue to be discussed. The two white papers published by the Union Home Ministry headed by the Iron Man of India, Sardar VallaBhai Patel, made it clear that the Western sector was not settled. But due to pressure from the rightist forces in the congress, the Jan Sangh(Present Bharatiya Janata Party), socialist party leader Rana Mahohar Lohia, Pandit ji refused to talk to Chinese Prime Minister and a good opportunity to settle the border issue was lost. Moreover there were very good relations not only at governments level but also at people’s level between India and China. It is not out of place to recall that Sardar VallaBhai Patel is owned by the Bharatiya Janata Party and used to call L.K.Advani as Sardar VallaBhai Patel of the BJP. - Pandit Nehru made it clear that the border was settled in 1847 itself. If so, what was the necessity for the British India government to send a letter dated 14/3/1899 through the then British Ambassador to China Macdonald, proposing to discuss the border between India and China. As per that proposal the Western sector of the border starts from Karakoram pass and passes towards South-Eastern direction, reaches Tibet(China) near Zung Mountains, West of Aksai Chin, in which case Aksai Chin belongs to China. The negotiations could have started on the basis of the above proposal. The question is why Pandit ji was very adamant to discuss the border issue with the Chinese leadership? It can be explained this way. If negotiations were held to settle the border issue, which is very sensitive, India must be prepared to loose some area, for which evidently Pandit ji was not prepared as it will give an opportunity for the rightist forces led by Sardar Patel to take cudgels against him, who were angry with him who was following an anti-US foreign policy of Non-Alignment. - In Tibet there was an uprising in 1959 and fearing action by the Chinese Government, the

14th Dalai Lama with his loyalists arrived in India on March who were given asylum and they formed Tibet exile government , which naturally enraged the Chinese Government. - In 1962, some unfortunate events happened, which disrupted the close friendly relations between India and China. Indian nation called it Chinese aggression and condemned it while Indian communists called it border clashes between Indian and Chinese armies. The Chinese army crossed over to Indian territory and came up to the Southern border of Arunachal Pradesh, which they claim as belonging to them resulting in clashes with Indian army and stayed there for certain period and went away to previous positions. After this event in 1963, Pakistan handed over Aksai Chin to China. So, from then onwards Aksai Chin continues to be in the possession of China.

3. Issues to be settled between India and China i. Border dispute including Arunachal Pradesh ii. Sikkim iii. Tibet iv. Taiwan v. Economic and Trade Relations. 4. Attempts to settle the issues : The 1962 events brought a new unpleasant situation in India-China relations. The most cherished slogan of “Hindi, Chini-Bhai bhai” melted away like ice. Even the diplomatic relations were disrupted. Communist leaders were arrested and put in jail. Even Track II Diplomacy was not in action. There was no scope even for starting negotiations as both India and China took two different contradictory attitudes towards the proposal for negotiations on the border issue. India insisted that border issue shall be solved first and for that purpose to appoint a Joint working Group to solve it. But China wanted to concentrate first on confidence Building Measure(CBMs) and then decide the principles on which the border dispute to be solved and to appoint a joint working group. By adopting this method only China could solve its border problems with Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Mongolia, Vietnam and even with Soviet Union, with which there were border clashes and also war. Thus there was no scope even for negotiations. - In 1980, China proposed to India what was known as Deng plan to solve the border problem. It suggested the following: Both countries must be prepared to adopt the principle of give and take. China must be prepared to lose some land in the Western sector and similarly India must be prepared to lose something in the eastern sector, basing on the Line of Actual Control, while determining the border. But India rejected the Deng plan saying that there was not much difference between the plan and the one proposed by Chow-En-Lai in 1962. a. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China 1988 By 1988, the international situation was completely changed. There are indications of the collapse of the Soviet Union and East European Socialist countries and end of cold war and emergence of Uni-Polar world under the domination of the USA. The Soviet Union expressed its decision to leave Afghanistan. Soviet Union and China were coming together forgetting their old enemity and they were on the point of resolving their border dispute. India and Pakistan also began to try to solve the bilateral issues such as Jammu and Kashmir etc. Many intellectuals and the Civil Society in India also began to pressurize India to settle the outstanding issue with neighbors. In that situation Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi decided to pay an official visit to China in December 1988. Deng, though not in power, played a prominent role during the visit of our Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. The discussions between the Prime Minister and his Chinese counter part and other officials were held in cordial atmosphere. Both countries decided to give priority to CBMs(Confidence building measures) keeping the border issue on the sidelines temporarily. Yet as per the desire of India, a Joint Working Group at Foreign Secretaries level was appointed to solve the sensitive border issues. Thus the visit assumed very much importance. During Chinese Prime Minister Lepeng’s visits to India in 1991, it was decided to open consulate office in Kolkatta and Lhasa(Tibet). Agreements were signed to extend cooperation for cross border trade, space, Science and Technology. Then followed the visits of bilateral visits of defense, Foreign Ministers and also army chiefs.

b. Prime Minister P.V.Narasimha Rao is visit to China in 1993 This visit to China can be said to be another milestone in bilateral relations. Both sides agreed to maintain Peace and Tranquility along the whole border. It was also decided to attach experts from both sides from the departments of Foreign, Defense, Home, Army Head Quarters, Survey of India to the Joint Working Group to help to find a solution to the border problem. After 100 years, Chinese Warship paid a visit to various sea ports in India. In 1995, India’s Vice President K.R.Narayan paid a visit to Beijing. China’s army chief visited India after three decades. The Joint Working Group along with its experts met in New Delhi in Aug 1996 and made some important decisions. In Eastern Sector of the border, the army camps used to be opposite to each other only 50 to 100 feet distance which were creating tensions. So, it was decided to keep the army camps away from the Line of Actual Control and to dismantle four camps, two each side. Both sides decided to increase the bilateral trade from $34crores in 1993 to 1000crores by 2000. Because of Peace and Tranquility agreement the border between India and China which at present is known as LOC(Line of Control) will be called LAC(Line of Actual Control). c. Chinese President Zamin’s visit to India 1996 Chinese President Jiang Zamin, who was also the General Secretary of the Communist Party and also Chairman of the Military Commission visited India in November 1996 which can be considered as another milestone. At that time Deva Gowda was the Prime Minister. I.K.Gujral was the Foreign Minister and Communist Party of India leader indrajit Gupta was the Home Minister in the National Front Government. The talks were held in a very cordial atmosphere. Both sides committed themselves to honor the Line of Actual Control and agreed to reduce their army contingents, missiles and heavy weaponry which were deployed on the LAC and to keep their armies 10km away from the LAC and to limit the number of army personnel to one division while organising the military exercises. d. Visit of Chinese Prime Minister Rongji in 2002 Feb This visit reflected a true friendship between India and China. India conducted nuclear tests and declared India as a nuclear weapon state in 1998 May by PM A.B.Vajpayee a caretaker Government when U.S. President Bill Clinton criticized the Government by saying that the Government has deceived him as no caretaker Government was expected to undertake such an important agenda. But in order to escape serious sanctions from the US, the then defense Minister George Fernandes openly and the PM in a secret letter to the US explained that they have resorted to the atomic tests to counter the nuclear threat from China. Chinese PM ignored the accusation and made friendship overtures. Even before this visit, both agreed in 1999 to create a Joint Forum to discuss various international and bilateral issues that threaten the

National Security of both countries. They also decided to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2000 in a grand way and celebrated them. So, Indian President K.R.Narayan who served as an ambassador to China paid an official visit in 2000 May and took the bilateral relations to a new level. In response to the visit of president Narayan, Chinese president Le Peng also visited India in 2000 itself. Both sides expressed their desire to work for multi-polar world.

e. Indian Prime Minister AB.Vajapayee’s visit to China in June 2003 By that time many important developments took place in the world. In 2001 Oct, the USA and its NATO and other allies invaded Afghanistan in the name of catching hold of Osama bin

Laden, leader of Al Qaeda, who was accused of organizing attacks on New York on 11th September in 2001 which was known as 9/11. In 2003 March, US invaded Iraq on the allegation that the regime of Saddam Hussein has become a threat not only to the US but to the world as it has got weapons of mass destruction and removed him from power. Both India and China opposed the Iraq war besides Russia. A big business delegation also accompanied the India official delegation. Prime Minister A.B.Vajpayee’s visit yielded good results. A joint statement was issued at the conclusion of the visit. Such a joint statement issued for the first time after a long time. Both sides signed 10 agreements also. “The Joint statement was the beginning of a new chapter in Sino-Indian relations” said the Chinese side. “A Qualitative change in bilateral relations” said Prime Minister Vajpayee. The joint working group appointed to resolve the border dispute, by that time, met atleast a dozen times both India and China in the movement towards solution was very slow. That was why during Prime Minister Vajpayee’s visit it was decided to give a political support to the group by appointing political representatives from both sides. India appointed the National Security Adviser Brajesh Misra as the political representative. Both sides committed themselves to work for multi polar world in cooperation with Russia. Thus Russia-India-China (RIC) group was formed.

f. Visit of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India in April 2005, when Dr.Man Mohan Singh was the Prime Minister of UPA government.

This also can be said to be another important visit. The 15th meeting of the Joint Working

Group relating to border dispute was held in Beijing in March 2005 and the 16th meeting in New Delhi in April 05, just before Wen Jiabao’s visit. Similarly the meeting of the Special Representatives from India M.K.Narayan(who was appointed in place of J.N Dixit who passed away) and Doi Bin Guo Chinese Representatives took place in Delhi, before Chinese PM’s visit. - It will be relevant to mention about the outcome of the various meetings of the joint working group. - The JWG identified eight pockets of dispute on the border: Two on the Western sector viz. Trig heights, Dem Checki; one in the Middle sector viz Barahit and five in the Eastern sector viz Nam Gachu, Sund Rag Chu, Chantze, Asafila, Lengzu. In 2000 January, both sides exchanged their respective arguments, evidence and maps to prove their claims for the pocket of dispute in the middle sector. The details of the outcome of the meetings of the special representative was not made public, though they will help the JWG. - Chinese premier met all the top brass in Indian administration in cluding President of India, prime minister etc. A joint statement was also issued. The bilateral relations were developed to a higher level viz strategic and cooperative partnership for Peace and prosperity. It means that both countries agreed to consult with each other on global issues and coordinate their actions. Both reiterated once again that they will try to strive for multi-polar world in cooperation with countries like Russia etc. Regarding the border issue resolution both sides have taken certain important decisions. They entered into a Political Parameters which envisages: i) Border issue

shall be solved through negotiations basing on the principles of Panch Sheel only. ii) Both sides shall take into consideration the historical evidence, the aspirations, the problems that may be faced by the people on either side of the border. iii) Paramount importance shall be given to the security, safety, and views and aspirations of the people living on the border from times immemorial. iv) To identify the border line and to make a survey of the border, latest instruments of science and technology shall be used. v) Special representatives shall continue this work till a lasting solution is found to the border dispute and peace and tranquility shall be maintained till a solution is found to the border problem.

g. India-China Summit : Prime Ministers Dr. Man Mohan Singh and Wen Jiabao attended the summit held in Berlin in June 07. Frame work to be evolved to solve border problem was mooted. It was finalized and a committee was appointed during the visit of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukharjee to Beijing in Oct 07.

h. Prime Minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh’s visit to China in Jan08: “Shared vision for 21st century” was adopted-11 agreements were signed. Both will strive for significant regional and global influence and a positive influence on the future of international system. China’s commitment to promote bilateral civil nuclear cooperation and to help for India’s greater role in united nations including the permanent membership in UN Security Council, Business leaders Forum was created. Agreed to organize Joint Military Exercises and to set up a Joint Medical Mission and to start Science and Technology Projects in four identified areas. Both sides agreed to achieve trade target of 60 billion dollars by 2010 from 38.6 billion in 2007.

i. Track II Diplomacy : The 6th visit of Eminent Persons Group in Sep 07 and congress President Sonia Gandhi’s visit in Oct 07 took place. j. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherji’s visit to Beijing on 6/6/08 : By this time Tibet issue was focused and protests by Tibetans at the Olympic flame march in various countries took place. Once again India made it clear that Tibet is integral part of China and Olympic flame march was made to pass peacefully through India. Pranab Mukherjee presented Padma Bhushan to Xianlen, Chinese indologist, who translated Epic Ramayana into Chinese. Sikkim issue was also discussed. Decided bilateral Trade target of 60 billion to be achieved ahead of schedule of 2010. China agreed to provide India with flood season hydrological data of Brahmaputra, which will ensure the security of the people living along the river. k. India-China summit took place in Beijing in Oct 08 on the sidelines of ASEM(ASIA-European Union)Meet. Both agreed to take the bilateral relations forward with far-sighted and strategic and long term prospects. Earlier in Sep 08 also India-China summit took place in New York on the sidelines of UN General Assembly session.

l. India’s Air chief visited Beijing in Nov 08 and decided to have Joint Naval Exercises.

Accordingly India joined China’s naval exercises in April 09 in Gingdao in China to mark the 60th anniversary of establishment of PLA(Peoples Liberation Army)

m. India and China discussed anti-piracy cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region on the sidelines of the Asia Security Summit in Singapore on 30/5/09. n. Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and Chinese President Hu Jintao met in Yekatering(Russia) on 15/6/09 on the sidelines of RIC(Russia, India, China)Summit and BRIC ( Brazil, Russia, India, China ) Summit. They directed the special representatives relating to border dispute to meet on 7-8 Aug 09 in New Delhi to discuss the border issue. The Summit took place in the backdrop of hightened assertions by both side on Arunachal Pradesh. Beijing rebuts Prnab Mukherjee, (External Affairs Minister) assertion that China knows that Arunachal Pradesh is integral part of India. China refused to issue visa to the speaker of Arunachal Pradesh Assembly and also many M.L.As of Arunachal Pradesh. Pranab Mukherjee objected to China voting against the grant of a loan by ADB(Asia Development Bank) for two Developmental Projects in Arunachal Pradesh on the ground that it is a disputed territory in March 09. Moreover China in a sketch Map showed Sikkim as an independent country .

o. The 13th Round of Boundary Talks were held in Beijing in Sep 08 after some years. p. The 14th round of boundary negotiations were held in Beijing in the last week of November 2010. The Special Representatives of both the countries also met at the same time. The National Security Advisor Siva Sankar Menan said that there is a steady progress in Border talks and the talks are in 3rd and final stage, which involves the actual process of delineating the border on maps and on the gound. 5. Some Achievements In spite of tensions now and then between China and India, there are some positive achievements also in bilateral relations. They can be serialized thus:

1. Special Representatives Group met 13 times, the 13th was in Beijing in Sep 08. 2. Both sides identified eight areas of dispute relating to border line; 5 in Eastern sector, 2 in

Western sector and one in Middle sector.

3. Joint Military Exercises took place in China in Nov-Dec 07. 4. Decided to start talks on Defense Cooperation during the visit of India’s Chief of Army Staff

to China in May 07. 5. India is being invited to the meetings of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional

grouping of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan etc. 6. Foreign Ministers of India, Russia and China decided to work for Multi Polar world. at a

meeting held in Oct 07. 7. Nathula Pass(Ancient Silk Route) which was closed in 1962,was opened in July 06 to

improve border trade between India and China. 8. China, which has been refusing visas to any body from Arunachal Pradesh, granted visa in

Oct 07 to one intellectual of A.P. 9. India worked hard for China’s membership in W.T.O(World Trade Organisation).

10. China thanked India for backing her during the Anti-China Campaign on the issue of Tibet. Bilateral relations were established between the two ruling parties viz Chinese Communist Party and Indian National Congress.

11. Chinese Consul General Office was opened in Kolkata while India also opened its Consulate Office in Shanghai in Aug 08.

12. The Bilateral Trade in Jan-June 08 was of $29 billion, which was 69% increase over the same period in 2007. The trade deficit with China rose from $816 million in 2003 to $9,159 million in 06-07

13. A new road on the left Bank of Lohit River in Arunachal Pradesh built at a cost of Rs. 1300 crores as raised uptimism about an early resumption of Trade with China.

6. Some Negative Developments 1. China expressed concern about U.S-India-Japan-Australia Joint military Exercises. China sent

Demarchi-Diplomatic protest letters to India. 2. India’s anxiety was expressed for 140 border violations by China in J&K. 3. India’s concern was expressed at various agreements between China and Myanmar

ignoring India’s interests and concerns. 4. India also expressed its concern at Anti-Ballistic Missile Test conducted recently by China. 5. China expressed its protest at P.M.Man Mohan Singh’s visit and announcement of various

projects by him in Arunachal Pradesh. 6. China’s frequent claims on the Tawang Region of Arunachal Pradesh and incursions by its

troops in the area have become an irritant and “no room for complacency” said Defense Minister AK Anthony on 28/4/08.

7. India opened 17 investigations into imports of Chinese goods. 8. Pentagon report of March 09 that China was worried about India’s rising economic, political

and military power. Another report says that USA is worried about China’s rising. India should be careful.

7. Some Developments in 2009 Note: 1.Hillary Clinton, U.S Secretary of State visited India in July 09. On 21/7/09 she issued 5 pillars for architecture of strategic ties between India and U.S. They include military

cooperation. 2. The 13th round of Special Representatives of India and China was held on Aug 09 in New Delhi, but no progress on the border dispute in the talks. 3. But India got nod for opening of consulate in Lhasa, Tibet. There are some anti-India and anti-China developments in 2009. They can be serialized thus 1. Anti-China:incursions:Media(both print and electronic)hype in India in Sep and Oct 09, on the alleged Chinese incursions along the border, though both the governments denied. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao warned media of action of filling F.I Rs against those reporters who file false reports about the so-called incursion of China. M.K..Narayan an special representative of Prime Minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh and Deepak Kapoor, chief of Army staff also followed.

2. Anti-India in China a. In China, a blogger calling himself “Zhang Le Guo Zhuan Le Garg”(which means Chinese strategist, on an official web site(international institute of strategic studies)asked China to break up the Hindu Religious State” of India into 20-30 regions as we have to respect the aspirations of Tamils, Nagas etc. b. One Chinese magazine, critical of U.S-India strategic ties, discussed the implications and said that U.S would exploit the ties with India for its regional, global strategic objectives. It avoided bashing India. c. One British newspaper claimed that after 47 year of Chinese war of 1962, many Chinese see India as the main enemy, because of Tibet(all the above three took place in Sep 09) 3. Anti-China: RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) on 1-10-09 disclosed that institutes (Chinese Study Circles in Nepal) are being used to gather information on Indian activities in Nepal.

4. Anti-India(stapled visas): China began(2/10/09)to issue loose sheet visas(stappled visas) to Residents of Jammu and Kashmir. The implication is that China does not recognize the nationality of the person concerned.

5. Anti-China: No business visas to Chinese workers, and curbs on visas to Chinese: Union Home Minister P.Chidambaram on 14/10/09 announced some curbs on issuing visas to Chinese. He said that no business visas will be issued to Chinese workers. They can come to India only on employment visas. Only skilled workers will get business visas. He also said that no visas to unskilled and semi skilled. At present there are 25,000 Chinese people working in India. These curbs will apply only to Chinese from 3/11/09. 6. Anti-India: Loan to India by Asian Development Bank. China and Australia voted against granting a loan to India in Asian Development Bank(in Sep 09) 7. a. Anti-India Prime Ministers visit to Arunachal Pradesh : On 13/10/09, China was deeply upset over P.M Dr.Man Mohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh. Previously also Chinese did the same when not only P.M, but even India’s President visited Arunachal Pradesh as it claims the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory. b. Dalai Lama’s proposed visit in Nov 09 : China as usual objected to Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh to attend to the inauguration of a hospital in Tawang in Nov 9(It is

not out of place to mention that the 6th Dalai Lama was born in Tawang). 8. Anti-India : China’s projects in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir : On 13/10/09 President of China told Pakistan P.M that China will help upgrading Karakoram High way and building Nelan-Jhelam Hydro Electric Project of 7000 mega watts in Bargi in Pak-occupied Kashmir. That was in continuation of the deal signed in 2006 and confirmed in Aug 08, when Pak President Zardari visited Beijing.

9. Sharing of River waters of Brahmaputra : On 16/10/09 India fired Brahmaputra Dam salvo at China basing on the media report that China was building a dam on its side. India said that at earlier meetings of India-China experts on trans-border river issues the Chinese side denied that there is a plan to build any large scale projects. Brahmaputra flows for 1625 km inside China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, where it is known as yar lengzango, with the Indian part being 918 km. In November 2006 India and China agreed to set up expert level mechanism to discuss the issue. China voiced concern over visas issue and expressed hope that India will not send back the Chinese workers in India. On 14/10/09 India asked China to stop the construction work on the projects as Pak is in illegal occupation of the area(POK). China said that it is for India and Pak to solve the problem. China suggested that the issue can be sorted out in experts meet and Foreign Ministers Meeting to be held in Oct end of 2009. India sent a Demarche (Diplomatic Protest letters) on the two occasions. P.M told China that Dalai Lama is India’s honored guest but he will not be allowed to undertake anti-China campaign in India. 10. Map issue : On 19/10/09 in the maps displayed, China cuts of Jammu & Kashmir from India and has shown J&K as an independent country. In the Maps J&K was shown as disputed territory. P.M Dr.Man Mohan Singh said on 20/10/09 that India will tackle all problems with China through discussions at ASEAN Summit to be held in Thailand. Similar sentiment was also expressed by China. 11. Conclusion : a. P.Ms of India & China (Dr Singh & Wen Jiabao) with their high level delegation met in Hua Hin in Thailand on 25/10/09 and discussed all issues relating to bilateral relations. Both sides reaffirmed the need to keep border peaceful. Both agreed that experts to discuss India’s concerns about Chinese Water projects. “Asian century will be a reality only if both countries live in harmony” said Chinese P.M. India reiterated its willingness to cooperate with China on global issues like climate change. “Both sides need to build better understanding at political level” said P.M Singh. Foreign Ministers of both countries met in Bangalore on the side lines of RIC(Russia, India-China)Meet in Bangalore on 27/10/09.

b. Neither India nor China will be benefited by anti-China or anti-India propaganda or activities. Those who are afraid of harmonious relations between India and China, will harm them and will be active in such situations. It can be said that pro-US and anti-Chinese forces in India and outside will be at work to disrupt friendly relations between India and China.

12. Anti-India(Naga talks dated 2/11/09) : To solve Nagaland Problems GOI (Government of India) has been conducting negotiations with the NSCNCI-M(National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Issac-Muvaiah) leaders who are in exile in Manila and other places. Taking advantage of the recent tension-atmosphere between China and India, the chairman of NSCN(L-M) Isaac Chesi Swu and another went to Beijing for talks with China’s leaders. Knowing this GOI kept the Naga Peace Talks on hold. Similarly ULFA(United Liberation Front of Assam) leader Paresh Barua shifted his base recently from Bangladesh to Chinese Yunnan’s provincial capital Kunming. After stern warning from Home Minister P. Chidambaram, these groups are trying to get help from China.

13. Anti-China 17th Karmapa issue : Karmapa is the head of the Kargyn sect of Buddhism like

the Dalai Lama. The present incumbant is 17th Karmapa whose name is Urgyen Trinley Dorge.

He is in India. One Indian Buddhist Narayana Singh alleged 17th karmapa is not a Tibetan origin and China sent this man as its agent to work for secession of Sikim and integration of Arunachal Pradesh with China. With these allegations, Narayana Singh moved the Delhi high court to declare that he cannot hold the post as he is not of Tibet origin and his stay is illegal. But Justice Manmohan Singh dismissed the petition saying that his court has no jurisdiction to entertain such issues. Naturally, China will be angry with this development. 14. Foreign ministers of India and China : S.M..Krishna and yang met in Banglore on 27/10/09 on the sidelines of RIC (Russia, India-China) Summit. Both decided to build trust at several levels. They favoured high level delegation exchanges. China did not raise Dalai Lama’s vist to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. India said no discrimination against Chinese on the issue of business visas. Yet some negative developments occurred. - GOI kept the Naga Peace Talks on hold in Nov 09 as the NSCN (1-M)-National socialist council of Nagaland (I-M) chairman Issac and two other top leaders were in Beijing to mobilize China’s support. - China once again accused that the Dalai Lama was sabotaging ties between India and China. - There was news in print and electronic media that China was building dams across River Brahmaputra. But India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said on 4/1/09 that China denied such activities. - India on 12/12/09 made it clear that the loose-leaf Chinese visas issued to travellers from Arunachal Pradesh and J&K were invalid. - China blocked in the UN Security Council, India’s efforts to get top leaders of Jaish-e-Mohmmad and Lashkar-e-Toyyaba, proscribed by the UNSC. - 20 Chinese engineers working in Jurala Dam in Karimnagar in A.P left the site, complying with GOI’s order as they were under business visas and work permits were given only to skilled workers. Later GOI was soft on visas to China. - Thus the year 2009 was an year of tension, mistrust resulted in the decline of India- China relations. 8. Some Developments in 2010 High-Profile Visits And Meets:

Following the year of strains with a number of reports of incursions by Chinese troops into disputed areas in 2009, there are a number of high profile visits in 2010. a. In Jan 2010, India’s Defense Secretary Pradep Kumar was in Beijing. India and China organized Joint Military Exercises in 2007 in China and in 2008 in India. But not in 2009. India expressed its willingness to work with China to fortify mutual trust and both sides discussed new Confidence Building Measures(CBMs). - But there were no Joint Military Exercises in 2010. Indian Air Force chief said that India will act against China’s incursions. China refused to help India in capturing ULFA(United Liberation Front of Assam)Leaders. - There were reports that China grabbed land in Leh, in Ladakh in J&K and LAC(Line of Actual Control)was altered. But union Defense Minister A.K.Anthony made it clear that LAC was not altered.

b. The 8th meeting of the Joint Economic Group was held in Beijing in the middle of Jan 2010, after a gap of four years. Union Industry and commerce Minister Anand Sharma met his counter-part. They noted that the bilateral trade fell by 20%. They reached an understanding on employment visas to Chinese workers. - China elevated the rank of its envoy (ambassador) in New Delhi to Vice-Minister level so that he can report directly to China’s foreign Minister. It is a sign of rising importance to India. The then Indian ambassador to Beijing Nirupama Rao (now Foreign Secretary) was promoted to Secretary level status even before China took that step. It is to be noted that in China there are seven vice Foreign Ministers. c. Border personnel from India and China met to join hands on the Indian Republic Day(26/1/2010)and pledged to contribute to peace, stability and development.

- In Feb 2010 Nepal Government’s delegation was in Beijing. Encouraged by China, Nepal moves to close the Himalayan passage through which Tibetans used to come to India to meet the Dalai Lama who is in Dharmasala, in Himachal Pradesh. - China announced new Trade Policy which India considers a boost to India’s exports to China. - China wants to have high-speed rail link with India. - The Ministry of Defense Annual Report stressed on matching Chinese military capability build-up in Tibet and Xinjiang province. d. External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna was in Beijing in April 2010. He met his Chinese

counter-part and P.M Wen Jiabao. Six-months long festival of India to mark the 60th year of establishment of diplomatic relations was launched. In spite of some irritants, cooperation between the two neighbors on issues such as climate change, Financial crises and Doha Round World Trade Talks was on the increase. India and China signed a pact on hotline to open direct telephone communication between the two Prime Ministers. While about 7000 Indian students are studying in China, about 3000 Chinese students are in India. It is to be noted that while 1,03,000 Indian students are in USA, 98,000 Chinese students are there in the USA.

e. President Pratibha Devi Singh Patil was in Beijing on a 5-day visit to China in May 2010. She sought backing of China for UN Security Council seat for India. She once again made it clear that Tibet is an integral part of China. India’s Embassy in Beijing will have economic wing to boost trade, investments and to improve coordination in multilateral fora. f. Union Minister of state for agriculture K.V.Thomas was in China on a 6-day visit to open doors for agricultural production. g. National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon, who took over in Jan 2010 was in Beijing. He met Chinese top officeals in Feb 2010 and discussed the whole gamat of bilateral relations. Menon and Foreigh Minister of China Yang discussed working on some projects in third countries, including Afghanistan. He also met P.M Wen Jiabao. China regards India as an important Strategic Partner. Bilateral Trade has to reach 60 billion US dollars. Menon raised the issue of nuclear cooperation with Pakistan and the supply of two atomic reactors. China mae it clear that it will be within the framework of Nuclear Suppliers Group rules and regulations. China reacted negatively to India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao meeting the Dalai Lama in July 2010 and it hoped that India will not allow anti-Chinese activities on Indian soil. It is to be noted that the bilateral trade through Nathula Pass is not in ascendancy. China refused to give visa to the army commander chief in J&K, Jaiswal on 27/8/10 which irritated India. India immediately announced suspension of defense exchanges with China . Inida also said no suspension of defense ties with China. After discussions both countries made it clear that there is no suspension of defense exchanges even.

9. Some Negative Developments in 2010 : - Another important irritant occurred at the end of Aug 2010. The New York Times in its report dated 28/8/10 made the following points. a. In a quiet move, China has deployed about 7,000-11,000 troops in the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, to take de-facto control of the key area. b. A rebellion is simmering against the Pakistani rule in the above area which is closed to the world. c. China wants a grip on this strategic area to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. For this purpose it is building high-speed rail and road link between Xinjiang province in west China and East Pakisthan and Chinese built Pak Naval base at Gwadar, Pasni and ormara in Balochistan. d. The Chinese Peoples Liberation Army soldiers, besides working on railroad, are extending the Karakoram high way, built to link China’s Xinjiang province with Pakistan and are working on dams, express ways and construction of 22 tunnels in secret locations, where even Pakistanis are barred and it also said that the tunnels are necessary for a projected gas pipeline from Iran to China that would cross the Karakoram through Gilgit. e. They (the tunnels) could also be used as missile storage sites. f. The Chinese army men are building a big residential complex, clearly designed for a long term stay for the Chinese army.

g. There were widespread brutally suppressed local movements for democratic rights and regional autonomy in both Gilgit and Baltistan where Sunni Jihadi groups allied with the Pak army have systematically terrorized the local Shia Muslims. h. Gilgitans and Baltistanis are under military rule and the local people are aspiring for legislature and other institutions without restrictions. i. Coupled with support for Taliban, Islamabad’s collusion in facilitating China’s access to the Gulf makes it clear that Pakistan is not a U.S ally.

- There is a media report on 28/8/10 to the effect that officers from China’s Public Security Bureau marched into the Indian pavilion at the Shanghai Export 2010 in July 2010 and confiscated broachers depicting the Indian map, as they showed Arunachal Pradesh, claimed by Beijing, as a part of India. j. India denied the media report on 29/8/10 and said that such a thing never happened. On 31/8/2011. India’s External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna replying to a call attention motion in the Lok Sabha said:”Government of India has come to realize that China has been showing more than the normal interest in the Indian Ocean Affairs and we are closely monitoring the intentions.” - On 3/9/10 India conveyed its concerns to China over the report in New York Times and others over the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s description of the region of J&K(Gilgit and Baltistan) as northern part of Pakistan and China should respect its sensitivities. - Chinese vice Foreign Minister Zhang in his reply assured Indian officials that troops are stationed in Gilgit-Baltisthan only for flood relief work and to provide humanitarian assistance. Chinese officials described the New York Times opinion which claimed that Pakistan had handed over the disputed region to China as totally groundless and made with ulterior motives. Chinese vice Foreign Minister also assured India that there was no change in China’s decade-old position that it supported a resolution to the Kashmir problem by India and Pakistan. On 4/9/10 China withdrew reference to Gilgit-Baltistan as Northern Pakistan. 10. Simo-Indian Relations and US : a. One cannot and should not ignore US factor in Sino-Indian Relations as US will be pursuing its strategy to continue to dominate in the Uni-Polar world situation, which means it domination in Asia also. It is not out place to recall President Barack Obama call to US student to work hard as US domination of the world in future depend upon them.

b. Admittedly 21st century will be Asia's which means permanent role for both China and India, which naturally US does not like. US strategy naturally will be to see that India and China are divided than united. US has been trying its leval best to form G-2 (Group of US and China) So that it can continue its domination in Asia as well as in the world in Cooperation with China. But various developments in Asia-Pacific region indicates more rivalry than amity between the US and China in currency, Military, jobs, trade, economic and political affairs etc..,

c. US is worried about China growth rate about 10%. China holds $776.4 Billion US bonds by June 2009. China has dollar reserves $ 2.1 Trillion by the end of 2009. China refuses US’s

demand to revalue its currency Yuan. US is also worried about growing close relation between china and Russia. China investment in Africa also as a matter of concern for the US. Chinas influence in Asia-Pacific Region is growing. China is able to dominate in 14 sovereign Island Countries in South-West Pacific such as papua new Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Palau, Tongo, Cook Islands etc., foreign British and US Colombia in 1995, China trade with the above 14 Island States was $121 Million. By 2009 to exceeded $ 1300 Million. Chinas influence is on the increase in its neighboring countries such as Myanmar, SriLanka, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc., This is described as China’s “Chain of jewels”, which has become a worry not only for the US but also for Indian also. China is also not happy with the US for raising issues of Democracy and Human Rights in China, hosting Tibetan Spiritual Leads, Dalai Lama, selling of arms to Taiwan etc. President Obama and US Secretary of State and other high officials and also the US crisis managers such as Henry Kissinger etc., visited Beijing to pacify China. China evidently is not willing to help the US to wriggle out of Afghanistan.

d. As every body knows that Afghanistan and Pakistan have become big problems for US. Pakistan could not pursue independent foreign policy which does not suit to US interest. The US army chief recently declared that Pakistan and Afghanistan have became big problems for the US. e. In this back ground US President Barak Obama paid an official visit to India in Nov 2010 with his big business and political contingent. He could make a big business of about Rs. 47000 crores. He praised India like anything. President Obama described India as a developed country and as a big developed country it has the responsibility to play a big role in Asia and the world along with his country. Though he did not mention the name of China it is understood that it is a call for India to play rival role to china. It may be recalled President Obama in his visit to Beijing said similar things to china. But US failed to draw china in its trap. India also should be very careful after American trap. It will be in the interest of not only both India and china but also in the interest of Asia and a whole world and humanity to pursue the agenda decided by RIC (Russia, India, China) and also BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) of building a Multi-Polar World, replacing the US dominated Uni-Polar World.

Maldives

1. Introducing Maldives

a. Maldives consists of 1192 small islands but only 200 are inhabited. It is situated in the Indian Ocean to the south of India at a distance of 700 kms. Maldives is a famous beautiful tourist destination. It is a strategically important country also. It is the first country in the world where its cabinet met under the sea on 17-10-2009 to focus on Global Warming and climate change. If Global Warming is not controlled, it is feared that the Maldives may be submerged. It is a jail-less, post office-less country with no department of defense, of labour or social security. There is no direct taxation. Of course there are no political parties in the last century.

b. The Maldives islands (which each island is not more than 5 sq miles in area) are spread up to a distance of 850 kms. It has a population of 3.5 lac. All are Sunni Muslims. They speak Divehi (which will be nearer to Simhala language). Its capital is Male. All most all people are fishermen. Coconut trees are in abundance. Per capita GDP is 3932 US$. Maldives got independence in 1965 from the Britishers. It declared itself a Republic in 1968 and obtained membership of UNO. 30 years rule of Abdul Gayoom of Divehi-Rayyi-Thungee party ended in 2008. It is a member in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). 2. Transition to Democracy : A wave of movement for democracy appeared in the first years of the present century resulting in President Gayoom agreeing for multi-party system in 2005. Thus, Maldives Democratic Party etc., were started. In a referendum held in August 2007, people favoured American type of Unitary Government. A new Constitution was adopted by the special Majlis or Assembly. and it was signed by the President on 6-8-2008. Maldives is now a Unitary Sovereign Independent Democratic Republic based on the principles of Islam. It reduces the executive powers vested with the President and strengthens the Parliament. Independent bodies were created for Human Rights, the Judiciary, Police, Defense, Elections and investigation of corruption. The Chief Justice and the Judges of Supreme Court will be appointed by the President in consultation with the Judicial Commission.

3. Presidential Polls: Five candidates including Abdul Gayoom contested for the President’s post. Ultimately one Mohammed Nasheed of the Maldives Democratic Party was elected as President on 29-10-2008. The total voters were 1.93 lac. 4. In September 2007Maldives experienced serial bomb explosions. There are some groups which are demanding the implementation of Shariat. UNICEF (United International Children’s Education Fund) declared that 70% of youth (male and Female) are addicted to drugs in Maldives as they used to get lot of money on account of illegal drug etc., trade with the Western Countries.

II. INDO-MALDIVEAN RELATIONS : 1. Bilational Relations : Diplomatic relations between the two countries were established in 1966. Maldives considers friendship with India as a source of aid and also a counter-balance to Sri Lanka, which is in the proximity and its largest trading partner. Both countries are members of SAARC and South Asia Economic Union and signifies the South Asia of Free Trade Agreement. Maldives is also active in NAM (Non-Aligned Movement). Male hosted some summits of these organizations. Thus there are close Political, Economic and Security Relations between the two countries. Many students of Maldives are studying in India. Many Indians used to visit Maldives as tourists. 2. Joint Fight Against Terrorism : In 1988, when some militants belonging to Peoples Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam from Sri Lanka invaded Maldives, took over the airport in and tried to capture the President Abdul Gayoom, he fled to India and sought the help of Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Government of India sent 1000 army men who restored the President to power by “OPERATION CACTUS” . 3. Importants Visits and their Outcomes : a. The Heads of State or Government of both the countries used to meet whenever an occasion arises and used to exchange views on regional and International issues. In August, 2008 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met President Gayoom in Colombo on the sidelines of the SAARC Summit. Male hosted the next SAARC Summit. b. Maldive’s new President Mohammed Nasheed visited India before becoming the President in July, 2008 and asked Indian leaders to think beyond Gayoom. Immediately after he was elected as President, Nasheed has chosen India for his first foreign visit. He met Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and Indian leaders and officials and also UPA Chair Person Sonia Gandhi. He addressed the top Indian business community and also joint business meetings and sought investments in Maldives. He wanted the bilateral trade which was 100 Million Dollars at that time to be doubled. He requested India to help security of the Indian Ocean.

c. Union Defense Minister A K Anthony visited Male in August 2009 and both countries signed a Defense Pact. He stressed strengthening of naval ties. Both agreed to fight terror together. d. India expressed its anguish as the news came out that China acquired a military base in one of the islands of Maldives. e. India agreed to keep two helicopters in Maldives to enhance its security situation and to respond quickly to Threats. f. Maldives has coastal radars on only two islands. India agreed to setup about 25 radars for coverage of approaching vessels and aircrafts. g. Maldives established its Defense Attachee’s official(DAO) in New Delhi in the High commissioner of the Republic of Maldives. This was its first Defense Attachee office abroad. Thus one can see that defense is a major component of India-Maldives relations. They used to have Joint Military Exercises, exchange of visits of military officials. There is a provision for military aid and intelligence and information sharing. Indian navy gifted a Trinkat class Fast Attack Air-craft to Maldives National Defense Forces Coast Guard in 2005. At the request of Maldives, India started the process to bring Maldives into India’s security Grid. h. After the “Operation Cactus”, naturally, there has been a significant expansion of not only military ties but even commercial and other relations. India has provided extensive economic aid for the development of infrastructure, health, civil aviation, tele-communications etc. India established the Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital in Male. Many students from Maldives are studying in Various educational institutions in India on scholarships. India’s exports to Maldives will be more than its imports from Maldives. For example the exports in 2006 were Rs.384 crores, while the imports were Rs.6 crores. 4. Maldive’s worry about its survival : Maldives is worrying about its survival due to Global Warming and Climate Change. If sea levels are increased due to climate change, Maldives will be one of the countries in the world to be submerged. That was why Maldives Cabinet met under the sea to focus on the issue. It was the first Cabinet in the would to meet like that. on 17/10/09 Government of Maldives has plans to make Maldives Carbon neutral by 2020. With a view to set up wind farms, President Mahammed Nasheed approached India for its help in the beginning of 2010. He visited Win Wind Vengal near Chennai and sought India’s help for such wind farms as he was impressed with win wind technology from Finland.

5. Threat to young Democracy of Maldives : a. There was a political stand off in Maldives when President Mohammad Nasheed and the opposition-dominated Majlis(Parliament) were on a collision course ahead of a vote of no-

confidence motion against the education Minister. The President and Vice President of the country were directly elected in Oct 2008. The new parliament which was 77 in number was sworn in May 09. The Dhivehi Rayyi Thunga Party which is aligned with and Peoples Alliance Party, has the upper hand with 34 seats in the parliament with the support of some independent members of parliament. The Cabinet resigned on 29/6/10 accusing the opposition MPs of hijacking the power of the executive and making it impossible for the Ministers to discharge their constitutional duties. On the other hand the opposition charged the government with illegally detaining members of the opposition to influence the outcome of the no-confidence vote and were against the holding of the parliament. The President’s offices came out with a statement saying “The Majlis is preventing the Cabinet Ministers from performing their legal obligations. Majlis members are behaving against the spirit and letter of the constitution”. b. The stand off continued till 7/7/2011 when President of Sri Lanka Rajapaksa had been to Male and settled the matter. Maldives praised Sri Lankan President for his helping hand to resolve the standoff and avert a big political and constitutional crisis.

Myanmar

1. Introducing Myanmar

Area : 6.7 Lakh sq kms Population : 4 Crores Ethnic composition : Burman : 69%; Shan: 8.5%; Karen : 6.2%; Rokhene : 4.5% Religious composition : Buddhists 89.4%; Christians 49%; Muslims 3.8%; Hindus 0.5% Natural Resources: Wood, Oil and Natural Gas, Tourism 2. Some Political Developments till 1990 1856: Burma came under British(India) Rule and became part of India. 1937: Britishers separated Burma from British India Administration and treated as a separate entity. 1942: Japan occupied Burma. Japan, with a view to get support in the Second World War promised and proclaimed Independence. Realizing that it was a deceit, Aung San(Father of Suu Kyi) began to fight an armed struggle against Japan and formed anti-fascist League. 1945: Japan was defeated in the war Britain tried to reoccupy Burma. But the Anti-fascist League continued the armed struggle. Britain declared self-rule for Burma. In 1945 April Elections the Anti-fascist League won and Aung San became the Prime Minister. 1947: PM Aung San was assassinated. People felt that the Britishers were behind the assassination and anti-British struggle was started. U Nu became the Prime Minister. 1/4/1948 : Burma got independence and joined Non-aligned Movement. 1962 : In a military coup UNu was removed from power. General Ne Win became the ruler under Burma Socialist Programme Party banned other parties and parliament was dissolved. Burma left the NAM in 1971. 1988 June and July : A big Movement for Democracy erupted Ne Win was removed from power and Dr.Maung became the ruler. 1988 August : Aung San Suu Kyi arrived from London established National League for Democracy(NLD). 1989 May : The military Rulers changed the name from Burma to Myanmar and Rangoon to Yangoon and promised elections in 1990. 1989 July : Suu Kyi was put under House Arrest.

1990 May : In parliamentary elections, NLD won major seats. But the military rulers(SLORC-The State Law and order Restoration Council) refused Suu Kyi to form the Government and continued House Arrest. Subsequently (SLORC) was changed to State Peace and Development council. 3. Some political developments in Myanmar After 1990: Most of the developments revolve Round the long time detainee Aung San Suu Kyi a. The leader of the National League from Democracy, Suu Kyi has been in house arrest almost since July 1989. Her detention was being extended year by year.

b. In August and September 2007, large number of students and Buddhists Monks organized protest marches, demanding restoration of democracy and release of Suu Kyi. The military junta curbed the movement with an iron fist and many people were killed in police firing and the military occupied the monasteries.

c. The special envoy of UN Security General Gambari met Suu Kyi and the military rulers and he came to New Delhi and met Indian officials in Oct 07, with a mission asking India to use its good offices and if necessary to use pressure on Myanmar to move towards restoration of democracy. d. Owing to international pressure, the military rulers initiated talks with Suu Kyi and entrusted the job to a Deputy Minister rank. Suu kyi expressed satisfaction for the initiative and wanted the talks to be upgraded. e. Meanwhile the military rulers released a draft constitution on 31/3/08 containing 457 Articles. It allot 25% of the seats in both houses of Parliament to the military. It bars Suu Kyi from becoming a member of Parliament or President of the country as she married to a foreigner who is no more. The rulers said by will held a referendum in May 08 on the constitution and the general election to be held in 2010. They call it a “road map to democracy” The NLD and other critics have denounced the process as a sham designed to perpetuate military rule. f. Though the country was reeling from a devastating cyclone called "Nargis" in May 2006 in which more than 1,28,000 lost their lives, the junta held a referendum, on the constitution(voting was postponed till 24/5/08 in Irrawaddy delta and Rangoon areas and declared 92.8% of the 22 million eligible voters approved the constitution and on 26/5/08 the rulers held the referendum in the remaining areas and declared it was approved by 92.5 of the voters. This was how the process of democracy was moving in Myanmar. g. But the neighboring countries such as China and India though under pressure from the international community-refused to interfere as their policy was to deal with the existing governments and they will not interfere in the internal affairs of Myanmar.

h. Myanmar ratified the ASEAN charter to strengthen democracy, good governance and Human Rights. Suu kyi was given new rights to receive regular mail deliveries from her two sons, who are in London, giving an impression that she may be released soon. Her releasing was conveyed to her lawyer in Dec 08. Mrs Sander Win D/o Ne Wiri, who was under House Arrest since 2002 was released on 13/12/08. 6000 prisoners including NLD people were released. i. UN Special Envoy Gambari again met Suu Kyi in Jan 09. She made it clear to him that a committee should be formed to review the constitution and the Parliament elected in 1990 should be summoned. The military junta rejected the plea to release Suu Kyi when her detention expires on 22/5/09. Again she was made to face a charge that she gave shelter to an American who secretly swam the river to reach her house to meet her. Government pleaded to keep her in house arrest for 5 more years. ASEAN, EU expressed the concern over the health of Suu Kyi. Foreign Ministers of ASEM(ASEAN and EU) meeting in Hanoi May 09 called for her early release and also release of 2000 political prisoners.

j. UNSG Ban ki-Moon who was in Myanmar in July 09 was not allowed to meet Suu Kyi, though he was allowed to meet the top officials including the chief ruler. Mean while the court found Suu Kyi guilty of harbouring an American illegally and sentenced her to 5 years, which was reduced by the government to 18 months. A senior US Democratic party senator Jim Web, the first US official to meet the Junta leaders and got the American who was harboured by Suu Kyi, released in July 09. k. Once again ASEAN countries in a joint appeal, demanded for the release of Suu Kyi. After nearly 18 months Junta Minister met on 7/10/09 for the second time, the detained Suu Kyi, with a view to get the sanctions lifted. Suu Kyi got a break from house arrest to hold a land mark talks with the US Assistant secretary of state for South East Asia and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell for 2 hours in 14 years. He also met Myanmar P.M THAN SHWE as part of efforts by the Obama Administration to help Suu Kyi’s release. At the same time the Human Rights GROUPS in the US demanded early release of Suu Kyi. US President Barak Obama who was in Japan on 10/11/09 demanded the release of Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi who has been in detention for 14 out of 20 years in Myanmar offered cooperation with Junta in lifting foreign sanctions. On 21/12/09 the Supreme Court of Myanmar agreed to review the latest House Arrest of Suu Kyi. l. There is a speculation that Suu Kyi may be released from detention in the coming days and her party(National Democratic League)may contest the parliamentary polls to be held during the year 2010. m. The Myanmar government announced election Laws in March 2010 and appointed a poll panel to over see the polls. Suu Kyi and her party, National League for Democracy were banned from contesting the polls. The NLD decided in March to stay away from the polls, though the dates were not yet announced. The NLD was set to be dissolved and the supporters

of Suu Kyi are thinking of forming a new party, called “The National Democratic Force” and registered for elections along with 37 other new political parties and five groups.

n. The military rulers have undertaken a major reshuffle in the administration ahead of elections on 7/11/08. A total of 15 senior officers including the chief ruler Than Shwe will shed the Uniforms to contest the polls. PM has called the people to elect those patriotic candidates and reject the destructive candidates. The Junta backed the Union Solidarity and Development Party headed by Prime Minister. (USDP) o. Myanmar’s military ruler Than Shwe paid a visit to Beijing in Sep 2010 and sought China’s help for the election due to be held on 7/11/10. The visit took place three months after the visit of Chinese PM Wen Jiabao’s visit to Myanmar, when 15 agreements including military cooperation and 1100KMs natural gas pipeline construction were signed. It is significant that

Myanmar chief ruler’s visit took place on the 60th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two nations. As part of the military cooperation Chinese Warships were in Myanmar ports for several days. It is to be noted that while numerous Western nations direct sanctions at Myanmar, which has been under military rule almost since 1962, China has been the key ally of Myanmar. One American scholar observed that China aims for formidable position in the Indian ocean. p. Parliamentary Polls on 07-11-2010 : i. Elections were held for 330 seats in Peoples Parliament, 168 seats in Nationalities Parliament and 660 seats in 14 Regional Assemblies, totally 1158 seats. One quarter of the seats are reserved for the military. Total eligible voters are 28 Million. ii. Foreign Media of Foreign observers are not allowed to cover the Polls. The Polls were criticized as a sham aimed at legitimising Army Rule and analysts say the military could use a change of Government to justify smashing ethnic resistance once and for all. The military Government declared that election boycott is equal to choking democracy. iii). About 40 Parties contested the Polls the following are important among them. 1. Union solidarity and Development Party (USDP) This is ruling junta’s Party. If contested all the 1158 seats. Among the candidates fielded included 27 incumbent-ministers, top-heavy military men who recently retired. It was started recently and boast of having 18 million members. It had it origins in the Union Solidarity and Development association (USDA), which is closely knit association of the ruling military officials. The (USDA) changed the name as USDP in order to legitimacy.

2. National Unity Party (NUP) which is also a pro-military one. It has its origins in the Burmese Socialist Programme Party (BSPP), which was a platform for the military junta in 1960 ‘s and 1970’s. it was started by General Ne win, who ousted U Nu. It contested 980 seats.

3. The National League for Democracy (NLD) started by Aung san Suu Kyi which was one 1990 election was disbanded before the elections by the military junta as it announced the boycott of the Polls as the rule barred its leader Suu Kyi from contesting the elections on the ground she married a foreigner. Along with Suu Kyi about 2500 of its party workers and Leaders are in jail. 4. Shan league for democracy (SLD) which was another force and won some seats with 1990 election was also dissolved before the elections. 5. The National Democratic Force (NDF): This was formed by some of the followers of Suu Kyi just before elections after the dissolving the NLD. 6. The Democratic Party (Myanmar): DP(M): This and the NDF are the real opposition Parties. iv. There are many ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar. Fearing assault by junta, they were united before Polls. The groups are fighting for greater autonomy, agreed to help one other to fight back if any of their members are attacked by the Government forces. The noted among them are: Four groups are operating along Myanmar border with Thailand. Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the Karenni Army, Karennas National liberation Army place council. The group which operates in Northern Myanmar is Kachin Independence Army. One group which is operating in North and East is Shan State Army. All these groups except one signed ceasefire agreement with the military junta. But as the military regime is trying to bring their ethnic armies under State control as border guard forces, to fight the ethnic groups there are tension between the military junta and the ethnic groups. So the above groups are united. There were clashes between the ruling junta force and ethnic groups just before the Polls, with the result thousands of peoples escaped into Thailand etc., and they could not participate in the voting. v. The opposition Parties viz., the Democratic Party (Myanmar) and National Democratic Force) alleged that the pro-junta Party cheated voters. vi. The State – Controlled Press has been announced the result, on daily basis. According to State – Controlled media the result are as follows: Union Solidarity and Development Party 76.8% of Seats (Pro-Junta Party) The National Unity Party (Pro-Junta) 5.7 % Shan Nationalities Democratic Party 5.2 % (Pro-Democracy) Rakhaing National Development Party 3.2 % (Pro-Democracy Party) The National Democratic Force 1.5 % (A Breakaway faction of NLD Party) (Pro-Democracy Party) As expected the military Junta got most of the seats.

q. Release of Suu Kyi: The military rulers of Myanmar released without any announcement the Pro-Democracy leader Aung San Sun Kyi 65 years on 12-11-2010 immediately after the Polls and before the announcement of the Poll result. She has spent 15 of the 21 years under house arrest and her release has become the leading demand of West Pressurising the Junta. She lost her husband during her house arrest and she was not allowed to go to London even to see his dead body, nor he was permitted to go to Myanmar to see his wife, when he was alive. Suu Kyi was not even allowed to see her sons also. The Government said that there no conditions attached to her release. The UNO and the international community welcomed the release of Suu Kyi but demanding the release of her Party leaders and workers who are still in jail. Naturally it is doubtful whether the release is permanent. On 22-11-2010 the supreme court of Myanmar rejected the Lawsuit filed by Suu Kyi against the Junta for dissolving her Party ahead of the elections. It may be recalled that Suu Kyi’s Party, National League for Democracy (NLD) was disbanded for boycotting the 07-11-2010 Polls as She was barred from contesting the elections or from holding any Government posts. The military government on 22-11-2010 has granted a visa to the youngest son of Suu Kyi, Kim Aris (33 years) who arrived in Bangkok a few days ago from his home town of London. Suu Kyi could meet her son after 10 years. r. In the last week of November 2010, the military Junta announced some curbs on the new Legislators. The Parliamentarians will be allowed Freedom of expression unless their speaces endanger National Security, the unity of the country or violate the constitution. They also provide two year prison term for those who stage protest in the parliamentary compound or physically assault a legislator. Those who enter the parliament house will get one year jail term.

II. India- Myanmar Relations Importance of I-M Friendship: 1648 kms border along the key North East states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and 1900 kms Andaman sea coast. Myanmar can be a gateway to South East Asian countries. Many militant groups are operating bases from Myanmar. With friendly relations with Myanmar lot of possibility for the development of both countries. a. Between 1962-93 : i. By the time General Ne Win assumed power, there were 10 lakh Indians in Burma. 60% of the private business was with the Indians. Ne Win nationalized the properties of foreigners(Indians). Indians were put to heavy losses. 1.5 lakh Indians returned to India. New citizenship Law came into force. Many Indians who could not get citizenship returned to India. There was setback in friendly relations between India and Burma. ii. In 1987 Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi made an official visit to Burma. Both sides agreed to cooperate in trade and economic matters. iii. In 1988, there was a big movement for Democracy in which 5,000 were killed. Indian Government and people extended full support to the Movement for Democracy, especially to

NLD under Suu Kyi who lived and studied in India, when her mother was an ambassador to India. So, relations were more strained. iv. While China, Thailand and other neighboring countries to Myanmar have been maintaining close relations, the ASEAN adopted a policy of engagement with the military rulers. Thus India was isolated and became an enemy of Myanmar. b. After 1993: i. In 1993 April, India’s Foreign Secretary afterwards National Security adviser JN Dixit(since died) visited Myanmar. (Even before that India stopped the anti-Myanmar Radio transmissions in 1991). It was followed by the visits of trade delegations to both in countries. 1994 January a delegation under the leadership of Deputy Foreign Minister of Myanmar visited India. Both sides agreed to tackle illegal trade of opium etc. by establishing check posts on the border. Both sides agreed to prevent the activities of militant groups in both countries. - In 1996, the armies of both countries jointly attacked the militant groups (of North Eastern States) operating in Myanmar under the name “operation Golden Bird.” There was some setback when Suu Kyi was awarded Nehru Peace Prize.

ii. 1999 : The Indian NDA government under A.B.Vajpayee started following “Look East Policy” to improve relations with China, Myanmar etc. India’s Foreign Secretary Raghunath visited Myanmar. Similarly Minister of State for External Affairs Vijaya Raje Sindhia also visited Myanmar. Both sides agreed to cooperate in many fields including preventing illegal militant group’s activities and to prevent cross-border terrorism. - In Jan 2003, Myanmar’s Dy.Foreign Minister visited India after 23 years, India agreed to open consulate office in Mandalay. Myanmar agreed not to allow anti-India activities on the soil of Myanmar. Both sides agreed to maintain regular contacts on the developments in the region. India agreed to help building Hydro-Electric Project, laying of Roads, improving transport. Both sides agreed to start air services between the two and to improve bilateral trade to one Billion dollars from 450 million in 2003. iii. Chief of State Peace and Development Council and army chief Gen. Than Shuu visited India in Oct 04 and many important agreements were signed. - A committee with senior officers from both countries was appointed to monitor the joint fight against terrorism, drug trafficking, illegal arms trade, cyber crime etc. A Joint working Group to monitor bilateral trade and economic cooperation was also constituted. - High way between More(MANIPUR) and Tamu(Myanmar) was opened. - Myanmar will fight for a permanent seat for India in UNSC. - Asian Car Rally 2004 was inaugurated by PM Man Mohan Singh in Assam on 23/11/04. When it reached Mandally(Myanmar) a seminar on India-Myanmar Relations especially on Economic Cooperation and Trade was organised. 400 experts participated 1400 km Trilateral High Way project between India, Myanmar and Thailand was also agreed to be laid.

iv. The 11th meeting of Home Secretaries on terrorism was held in Oct 05 in Yangoon. Both sides agreed to intensify the fight against terrorism. v. A summit of India and Myanmar was held in Dec 05 on the sidelines of ASEAN Summit in KaulaLampur. vi. 2006 May, Myanmar agreed to supply Natural Gas to India. India’s OVL(ONGC Videsh Limited) was given 30% share in oil exploration. In July 2006 the 7th Round Talks of Foreign Ministers was held in Yongoon. Energy, Trade, Economic cooperation Infrastructure Projects were discussed. India agreed to give training to Myanmar’s military and to supply arms.

- India agreed to help improving the Sittwee sea port at a cost of Rs.546 Crores to be born by India. It is in Arakan Region on the way to Bay of Bengal. India also agreed to help Myanmar in digging a canal to Northern Region of Myanmar. vii. In Sep 07: Murali Deora, petroleum Minister visited Myanmar and Myanmar agreed that India should explore oil at 3 oil wells. viii. In Dec 07, when the Movement for Democracy by students, Buddhists Monks was at its peak, the Foreign Minister of Myanmar visited Delhi. India agreed to establish a centre in Myanmar to improve its IT sector. The Myanmar Refugees in India organized protests against the visit. c. 2008-09 : i. The Foreign Ministers of both countries met in Jan 08 and discussed the following projects which were finalized during the visit of Jai Ram Ramesh, Minister of State for Commerce and Power. - Kaladan Multi Model Transit Project: The Kaladan River will be made navigable for 225 kms from Sittwe(Sea port) to Kaletwa. From Kaletwa, a 62-km high way will run up to Myanmar-India border in Mizoram. A road from the border will link the project to a National High way NH 54. India to give 64 million dollars to finance 3 transmission lines. Another $20 million credit for Aluminium and steel manufacturing facility. - National Hydro Power Corporations agreed to deisgn two Hydro Power Projects on Chind Win River Basin with a capacity of 1200 MWs and 600 MWs. ii. Jai Ram Ramesh again visited Myanmarin Oct 08. Agreement to open two more Border Trade centers in Nagaland and Mizoram, to the existing centre in Moreh in Manipur was concluded. iii. PM Dr. Man Mohan Singh opened I-M centre for IT skills spending $2 million. India will set up a centre for petroleum technology in Yangon.

iv. Foreign Secretaries met in Nov 08 and reviewed the whole gamut of bilateral relations. Trade items were increased to 40 from 22. v. Army chief Deepak Kapoor visited Myanmar in Oct 09 to discuss Defense cooperation. Activities of NE insurgent groups based in Myanmar were discussed. Myanmar reiterated its commitment not to allow its territory to be used for anti-India activities. vi. EA Minister S.M.Krishna was on a 3 day visit(10-12 Dec 2009) to attend BIMSTEC(Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic cooperation) Ministerial meeting in the capital Nay Rye Thua. Some Leaders of insurgent groups like ULFA etc are believed to be in Myanmar. It was also raised with the authorities of Myanmar. vii. OVL(ONGC Videsh Limited) and GAIL(Gas Authority of India) have an ambitious plan to take 12.5% stake in the $2.01billion(Rs.9,300 Crores) gas pipeline project being built by China in Myanmar to transport natural gas found in the Bay of Bengal. Thus OVL and GAIL have to invest 251.2 million dollars(Rs.1170 Crores). But it has to be approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs which was approved later.

viii. One serious problem to be sorted out between India, Myanmar and Bangladesh is the dispute regarding to demarcation of Deep-Sea(Bay of Bengal) boundary. The issue came to focus recently when Myanmar ships escorted by two warships entered Bay of Bengal (claimed by Bangladesh as its territorial waters) to explore natural gas and oil. It is a surprise as the Foreign Ministry Committee formed in 2004 has to recommend how our (3 COUNTRIES) deep sea territory could be demarcated. Thus issue has to be sorted out between the three countries(which is pending before the UNO). d. Some important visits in 2010 between India and Myanmar and Their Outcomes: i. Indian Vice President M.Hamid Ansari made an official visit to Myanmar with a big business delegation including officials from SAIL(Steel Authority of India) GAIL(Gas Authority of India) BHEL(Bharat Heavy Electricals) ONGC Videsh Limited, Tata Motors etc. Vice President inaugurated the first cross border optical fiber telephone link between the two countries in Mandelay. Both signed three MOU S (Memorandum of Understanding) on Bilateral Investment promotion and protection, establishment of an English Language training centre in Yangoon with Indian assistance and setting up of an industrial training center in Myanmar’s Pakkoku. Vice President also inaugurated the Myanmar-India Entrepreneurship Development center setup at the institution of Economies at the Hlaing University. Myanmar conveyed its support to India’s candidature for the non-permanent membership in the UNSC for the term 2011-12. ii. The Union Cabinet in Feb 2011 approved that OVL, GAIL to takes stakes in China projects in Myanmar. Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao visited Myanmar in March 2010 and discussed security issues, cooperation on cross-border development projects, including oil and gas. She

co-chaired the 11th Round Foreign office consultation.

iii. Visit of Myanmar Military Ruler Senior General Than Shwe to India in July 2010: The military ruler was on a 5-day visit to India. He was given a red carpet welcome by India. President Pratibha Devi Singh Patil hosted a dinner also. The leader met also the PM Manmohan Singh and other high officials. Besides a security Accord, five agreements were also signed on 27/7/10. Thus both countries agreed to enhance security cooperation to deny sanctuary to insurgent groups in each others territory. Four agreements signed seek to build on the developmental assistance being already provided by India such as trade access route to the North East of India, a major connecting road and railway infrastructure and Telephone links. The fifth pact pertains to mutual assistances in criminal matters. India also announced a grant of Ten Million Dollars, for agricultural machinery. Gun Than Shwe came to India after six years. It is to be noted that there is no Wishper of Suu Kyi’s release.

iv. Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen in October 2010 criticised Indian’s Myanmar Policy of engagement with Myanmar and said: “when our power to influence the world was Zero, we spent our time lecturing the world on morality. And when we get a bit of power, although not as much as China, then we completely abdicated that responsibility." The Government of India is planning to deploy the Border Security Forces (BSF) to guard the unfenced India-Myanmar border in a big to check the movements of militants and smuggling of arms, ammunition, drugs by North east insurgent outfits. The movies also expected to counter China's growing presence in the Myanmar region. e. Myanmar’s Nuclear Ambitions The US administration came out with a story in 2010 that Myanmar, with the help of North Korea, a staunch opponent of the USA, is proceeding to acquire Nuclear Weapon in violation of UN Security Council Resolution. US also said that World’s energy giants viz Chevron of USA, TOTAL of France etc which are exploiting gas and oil resources in Myanmar have generated 9 billion dollars and the Myanmar military rulers are utilizing the gas revenue to build Nuclear Weapons, which Myanmar denied. But the USA sent an urgent message to ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations)of which Myanmar is a member, to take necessary action to prevent Myanmar from acquiring nuclear weapons. There was news that Russia trained 4,000 Myanmar nuke officers which needs to be checked up.

NEPAL

1. INTRODUCING NEPAL :

Nepal is famous for GURKHA fighters and is known for the highest peak in the world Mount Everest. It is a land-locked country with an area of 1,41,400sq kms(half of Andhra Pradesh) bounded on the east, south and west by India(U.P, Uttaranchal and Bihar) and north by china(Tibet): Its Population is 29Million(2007): Among them are 90% Hindus,5% Buddhists,3% Muslims. Christian Missions are permitted but conversions are prohibited. This is the only Hindu kingdom in the world. Its Percapita GDP is $522. This is the second poorest country in the world after Bhutan. Its Literacy rate is 48%. Below poverty line people are 30.9%. Unemployment rate stands at 42%. Nepal consists mainly of mountain ranges in the North and high fertile valleys (Terai Region) in the South. Nepal is mainly an agricultural economy and forestry is also important. There is abundant river water for the production of Hydro-electricity. Exports are mainly medicinal herbs. Nepal has a growing tourist industry. 2. Various political and other Forces : a. Monarchy: One Pridhwi Narayan Shaw established the kingdom in 1768. But the Ranas-PrimeMinisters appointed by the king used to dominate with the help of the Britishers. In 1950, Indian Prime Minister Pandit Nehru intervened and could make the king(Tribhuvan)acquire powers and the king was made to give opportunity for Democratic process, which was put to an end by king Mahendra who succeeded Tribhuvan in 1955. It is to be noted that the German Dictator Adalf Hitler who proclaimed that only Aryans(Germans are Aryans) have the right and capacity to rule the world, presented a car to king Tribhuvan. Movement for Democracy was started in 1959 which resulted in establishing Rastriya Panchayat(Parliament under the control of the king) and it was abolished in 1963. A big movement for Democracy was started in 1990 and was successful when Birendra s/o Mahindra was the king (He succeded his father in 1975).G.P.Koirala of Nepali congress became Prime Minister in 1991. After 1994 elections Man Mohan Adhikari of Communist Party of Nepal(United Marxist Leninist)-CPN (UML) became P.M. Between 1997-2001 many coalition governments assumed power in Nepal. But instability continued. Between 2001-05 also there was change of governments for nine times which

contributed aversion among people towards democracy. While so, on 1/6/2001, king Birendra and his family members were killed in the palace under mysterious circumstances. So Birendra’s brother Gyanendra became the king. In the name of fighting Maoists the king imposed emergency, banned all political parties, dissolved the parliament in Nov 2001 and assumed all powers for himself. He sought U.S help. US President George W.Bush donated $ Two crores to fight them.People’s Movement was started and intensified against the king in March 2005. The people’s movement got a boost when the CPN(Maoists)on 21/11/05 joined the movement, run by the seven party Alliance. Inspite of the support he got from the U.S, U.K etc, king Gyanendra relinquished his powers, restored parliament and appointed G.P.Koirala as P.M on 27/4/06.

b. Democratic Forces : By 1990 Parliamentary Polls, there were 21 parties including 12 communist parties. Of them the main parties are: i. Nepali Congress(N.C) established in 1946. This is the main ruling party. Koirala family has been dominating it. In due course it was split in two: Nepale Congress and N.C (Democratic) but later on they were united to form Nepale Congress. ii. Communist party of Nepal (United-Marxist Leninist CPN (UML): By 1990 there used to be 12 communist parties. CPN(Maoist-M) under the leadership of ManMohan Adhikari, CPN(M-L) and 5 others communist parties formed United Peoples Front and played a significant role in the Democratic Movement. Before 1991 May elections, the first two parties viz CPN(M) and CPN(ML) formed CPN(UML). In 1994 polls it emerged as the biggest party and formed the government. iii. Nepal Sadbhawana Party : In due course it was split into two parties. iv. Rastriya Prajatantra Party(RPP) : Surya Bahadur Thapa, its leader was made the Prme Minister for six times by King Birendra. When the anti-king movement was at its peak, he left the party and formed Rastriya Janasakti Party in March 2005 and joined the anti-king movement. c. Religious Force: Viswa Hindu Maha Sangh: The Viswa Hindu Parishad and R.S.S. has got branches in Nepal. At the instance of Ashok Singhal, one Pandit Narayan Pokhral worked with VPH and RSS and in 7 years he organized 1100 meetings and collected a donation of Rs.300 crores. But Pokhral left them and started Viswa Hindu Maha Sangh in 2003 and he was murdered in 2005. All of them were pro-king. A special vigil was kept on RSS. Ashok Singhal praised king Birendra as the leader of 200 crore Hindus, when he banned all political activity and imposed emergency. Many people in Nepal used to believe that king is in carination of God. d. Extremists: CPN (Maoists) : In 1991 polls one-Jana Morcha won 9 seats though they have got extreme political views and differed with the rest of the parties. They were not allowed to function in and outside Parliament. They boycotted the 1994 polls and formed

CPN(Maoists) in 1995 and took up armed struggle. Their aim was to establish RYTU RAJYAM Farmers Government like the Shining Path in Peru. They came to lime light in Feb 1996 when they attacked and occupied 6 government offices and police outposts. They said that they have got 29,000 fighters and established their rule in 68 of the 78 Districts of Nepal. The Nepal Royal Army, under the direct control of the king could not curb them. They lost 13,000 cadres in their fight. They joined the anti-king Movement.

e. Provincial Political Force Madhesis : There used to be an open border between (British) India and Nepal, even- though there was an agreement between British India and Nepal in 1816 regarding 1400km border. Nepal army helped the Britishers in containing the 1857 army revolt in the first Indian war of Independence. So, there was a Friendship agreement between British India and Nepal.. Britishers encouraged Indians to settle in Nepal. So, many Indians, especially yadavas from Bihar, were settled in Terai plains region(South Nepal) and they were given rights on the immovable properties also. Similarly many Nepalis had migrated to India especially to Bihar and West Bengal. The Indians settled in Terai region are called Madhesis. There are many groups and parties among the Madhisis. Important among them are: Terai Madhesis Loktantrik Party and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum. They started anti-king Movement in 2007 and its is known as 2007 Movement. They woke up very late only after the seven party alliance and Maoists conducted joint anti-king agitation with definite understanding regarding the abolition of the kingdom, constitution of the Constituent Assembly etc. But the Madhesi parties insisted on creating an Unified Madhesi region, with full autonomy. While Maoists are powerful in hilly areas, the Madhesis are influential in Eastern and Central Terai region of Nepal. Ultimately both the interim government of Nepal and Maoists agreed to accommodate the Madhesis to participate in the democratic process and to the contest elections. Tharus(2 Million Buddha sons), the first settlers in Terai Region were ousted by the Madhesis and Northern Tribes and they were forced into bonded slavery. Madhesis plain people are afraid of the northern tribal people, the ruling circles. 3. End of Monarchy and Emergence of Democratic Republic of Nepal a. Maoist leader Prachanda becoming Prime Minister b. King Gyanendra after assuming all powers for himself, imposed emergency, banned all political activity in the name of curbing Maoists. He has appointed a committee with wide powers to inquire into the alleged corruption and illegal activities of political people, evidently to tease them. US secretly of state and British government’s special envoy met the king in May 05 and his illegal activities were intensified. He did not allow political activity even though emergency was lifted.

b. In March 05, six main political parties viz N.C, CPN(UML), N.S.P, N.C(Democratic), Peoples Front etc started the anti-king Movement. The Movement got a boost when the seven party Alliance came to an agreement with the CPN (Maoists) on 21/11/05 with 12 points viz to end the Monarchy, to establish full pledged democracy by drafting a new constitution with the

election to the constituent assembly. Maoists gave up their armed struggle. Ultimately the king Gyanendra relinquished his powers, restored parliament and appointed G.P.Koirala as P.M on 30/4/06 and the restored parliament resolved calling for elections to the constituent assembly to draft a new constitution to Nepal. The chief of Royal Nepal Army Rukmangada Katawal declared that he will work under the new government and was ready to recruit Maoists into the army. CPN(Maoists) also joined the cabinet of G.P.Koirala. It is to be noted that CPI(M) leader Sitaram yechuri mediated between Maoists and the seven party alliance. c. Peace Accord was signed by P.M G.P.Koirala and CPN(Maoist) leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda on 21/11/06 in the presence of International Community. 83 Maoist joined the interim parliament. Maoist fighters are put in cantonments under the supervision of the UN Monitoring Mission. d. Polls to the constituent assembly were held on 10/4/08. Total seats 601. Direct election for 240 seats, and 335 members will be elected through proportional representation and 26 members will be nominated by the cabinet. Total voters 17. 6million. Registered parties74. But only 54 participated in the polls. Poll Results: CPN(Maoists) won 220 Nepali congress:110(114), CPN(UML):102(109), Madhesi Peoples Rights Forum:50(53), Madhesi Democratic:35, Nepal sadbhavana party:9(24 parties have got representation in C.A). Thus the Maoists emerged as the single largest party. The figures in the bracket shows the number of seats won adding the nominated seats.

e. Constituent assembly passed a resolution on 28/5/08 (with 560 out of 564 votes favoring)abolishing the Monarchy(240 year old) and declared Nepal as Independent Secular Federal Democratic Republic with Sovereignty and state authority entrusted to the Neplin people. Hence forth, Gyanendra and his family members would be treated as civilians ordinary. The famous Narayan palace in Kathmandu will be kept as museum. 4. Fall of Maoist Prachanda Government : CPN(Maoist leader) Prachanda formed the government on 18/8/08 in coalition with the CPN (UML), Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, Sadbhavana and Madhesi Loktantric party, after a big struggle. Madhav Kumar Nepal of CPN (UML) who was defeated in the polls was made the head of the constitutional committee. Government was facing many problems. The main problem was from the army chief. The Madhesis demamded to declare Terai as a Sovereign State. Madhesis complain that they are discriminated against the Hill communities. Dalits constitute 25% of the population. Tharus(2 Million) do not want to be clubbed along with Madhesis in the job quota of 45% for minority groups. Prime Minister’s party CPN (Maoists) want him to complete the recruitment of its fighters into the army while the army chief and many political parties are against it. Some parties demanded the Maoist to dismantle its youth Wing and dissolve the peoples courts and to return the properties taken over by them during the armed struggle. Finally army chief was removed which was not accepted by the country’s president. CPN (UML) withdrew its support to the government. So Prime Minister Prachanda has no alternative except to resign which he did on 4/5/09 after 8 months. Nepal entered into a

political crisis. Prachanda saw international interference in the internal affairs of Nepal. Maoists began disrupting the constituent assembly proceedings. 5. Formation of the Government by CPN(UML) After prolonged negotiations, CPN(UML) leader Madhav Kumar Nepal formed the Government with 22 parties on 25/5/09. CPN(Maoists), Nepal Workers Party, Peasants party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party did not join the coalition. 6. Fall of CPN(UML) Government a. The CPN(Maoists) were joined by the Adivasi Janapath Bharat Movement of indigenous people of Nepal in the ongoing movement against the Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal government and a nation wide strike was organised from 24/12/09 and country wide bandh on 1/1/10,for its failure to implement 22 point program signed a year ago. After months of stalemate, the major political parties on 8/1/10 decided to form a high level political mechanism(HLPM) with four members viz Nepali Congress president Ex P.M G.P.Koirala, CPN(Maoists) chief Prachanda, CPN(UML) leader Jhalanath Khanal and P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal. b. Even though the stalemate continued the U.S government decided in Feb 2010 to resume the Foreign military financing Programme to Nepal which was stopped in 2004 and to provide $7.7Million(Dollars) as aid to Nepalese army. The governments of Nepal and China discussed border security issue. Both agreed on the long-standing dispute over the height of Mount Everest in April 2010. c. But the political stalemate continued in spite of many rounds of talks. The Nepali Congress threatened to take up arms if Maoists failed to integrate its forces into the army. Maoists planned no trust motion against P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal. Mean- while one of the members of the High level political mechanism, and Ex P.M G.P.Koirala died on 20/3/10 and this complicated the peace efforts. The deadline of 28/5/10 for drafting a constitution by the constituent assembly and to complete the peace process was fast approaching. The major five parties in the ruling coalition decided the fate of 1,96,000 Maoist combatants and they agreed to take only 3000 of them, which was rejected by the Maoists. The Maoist leader Prachanda stated only his government can complete the peace process including the drafting of the

constitution, called again for indefinite general strike on the eve of the 16th SAARC(South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Summit in Thimpu(Bhutan)from 28/4/10. Prachanda while addressing a mammoth gathering of 1,25,000 people on 1/5/10 accused India for its interference in Nepal’s internal affairs and called for Indefinite strike. But the ruling coalition

wanted 6 months more time to complete the drafting work. But on the 5th day of the indefinite strike by Maoists (on 6/5/10), people carried out rallies opposing Maoists strike. So, clashes followed accusing the ruling parties are responsible for the clashes, the Maoists called for strike on 7/5/10 and expressed his readiness to disband his guerilla army. High level talks to end the stalemate again failed on 18/5/10. Maoists launched people’s constitution, which envisages powerful executive president to be elected directly by the people. On 30/6/10, the Maoists

asked P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal to step down within 48 hours. Immediately the P.M submitted his resignation to the president on 30/6/10 after 13 months in power. But the president asked him to continue till alternative arrangements are made.

d. After the retirement of the controversial army chief, General Garang was made the army chief on 9/8/09 for 95,000 army. The vice president of Nepal Parumananda Jha, who refused to take oath in Nepali language was disqualified and his facilities were withdrawn by the government in September 09. That was settled on 7/2/10 after the vice president took oath of secrecy in Nepali Language. The constituent Assembly could not function as the Maoists are not cooperating. e. Under pressure from Nepali congress, the coalition partner, Sujatha Koirala D/o Ex P.M G.P.Koirala, a minister till then was made the second Deputy P.M on 13/10/09. In a demand that will have strategic geo-political implication P.M has asked China to extend Beijing-Lhasa(Kathmandu). Railway line to Kathmandu. f. Nepal government was about to run out of money. Maoists block new budget. Government Departments cannot spend more than 1/3 of their allocations. g. The opposition Maoists vowed to dislodge the government and started protests. From 2/11/09, Nepal was paralyzed by Maoist protests. They kept seize on government offices. All efforts by the coalition partners to seek the cooperation of Maoists failed. The crisis is continuing. Meanwhile on 8/11/09 Prachanda said that a new government will be there in a week, suggesting that his party may declare a parallel Government in Nepal, which will intensity the crisis, Some parties are demanding imposing president’s rule in the country, which prevents the elected constituent assembly from drafting the constitution. The Maoists called off a blockade of the only international air port on 3/11/09 after 12 western powers expressed their concern. Then Maoists also deferred their plan to declare the division of Nepal into 13 autonomous States, to woo international community. h. The visiting European Union Delegation in October 09 appealed to all political parties in Nepal to end the deadlock of parliament and complete the peace process by enacting the constitution. It pledged to give 60 Million Euros to Nepal. i. UN Secretary General in his report on 10/10/09 to the UNSC urged the ruling parties and the Maoists to work on the basis of consensus and form a National government. But the government of Nepal accused UN of meddling in its internal affairs. Nepal revoke criticism ban on Ex-Royals on 6/11/09.

7. Failure to elect a new Prime Minister : a. The resignation of the PM was part of the agreement between the three main parties. President first called on the Maoists, the largest party in parliament, to form the government. But it failed. So the President called an all parties to select the P.M by consensus. But it did not

workout as there was no agreement among the parties. So President called upon the parliament to elect the Prime Minister. The P.M to be elected by the parliament needs the support of 301 members out of the total of 601. The parliament met on 13/7/10, 21/7/10, 21/8/10, 6/8/10 and on 15/8/10 and subsequently also but could not elect the P.M. Some four lawyers move the Supreme Court to put an end to this exercise from which CPN(M) and CPN(UML) withdrew, but with no effect. b. In the beginning 3 candidates i. Prachanda on behalf of CPN(Maoists) which has a strength of 220 in 601 members parliament. ii. Ram Chandra Poudel on behalf of Nepali Congress which has a strength of 114. iii. Jalanath Khanal of CPN(UML) which has a strength of 109 contested and nobody has got the required figure of 301. In the second round, only the first two candidates contested. The CPN(UML) and the United Democratic Madhesis Front-UDMF-a combination of 4 Terai Madhesi Parties, which has a strength of 82 member in parliament abstained. The UDMF put two conditions to extend their support. (1) Formation of Madhesi Province and (2) To include Madhesis in the state organs. The Nepali Congress rejected both the conditions. But the Maoists were ready to accept the second condition only for which the Madhesis were not

agreeable. So, they continued their boycott of the parliament. So in the 3rd round held on

2/8/10, Prachanda got 259 votes while Poudel got 126. In the 4th round on 6/7/10, Prachanda got 213 votes in his favor while 99 against 156 neutral, while the Nepali congress candidate Poudel got 122 votes in his favor, and 245 M.Ps voted against him. Prachanda withdrew from the contest, with the result that only the Nepali Congress candidate Poudel remained in the contest Even after many rounds, the parliament could not elect a Prime Minister. The Nepal is Supreme Court in a Public Interest Litigation on 11-11-2010 directed the Speaker of a Parliament Subhash Nembang to take appropriate alternative steps to end the current political deadlock over the the meaningless process to elect a Prime Minister, which has effected the drafting of a new constitution. iv. Even after 17 rounds, the Parliament failed to elect a new Prime Minister and it was Postponed to 02-12-2010 from 19-11-2010. Even on 2-12-2010 the parliament failed to elect the Prime Minister. On 20-11-2010 the Finance Minster Surender Pandey could not present the annual budget as the Maoist legislation suffered with him and snatched in brief case as he was about to present the budget in Parliament. Thus Nepal is facing all round crisis. v. The crisis in Nepal is mainly due to the differences between the Political parties. So, a task force was appointed with Maoist Leader as head to solve the crisis. The task force decided on 31-10-2010 that the head of the Government should head the constitutional committee. 8. Rise of Pro-king forces :

a. The two successive governments that came to power after the ouster of the last king Gyanendra, could not fulfill their obligations of drafting the constitution and to complete the peace process and stalemate of electing a new P.M. continued One can see the continued frustration among the anti-king forces which gives encouragement to the pro-Hindu and pro-king forces. b. On 15/2/10 the strike call given by Bhishma Exta Parishad, a pro-Hindu and pro-king outfit was very successful in the seven Western Districts of Nepal. 1. Ex P.M and founding leader of Nepali congress Krishna Prasad Bhattarai on 29/3/10 expressed his strong opinion that elected federal secular and a Republican system was not suitable to Nepal and advocated revival of constitutional Monarchy. 2. Four years after his ouster(24/4/06)Ex-king Gyanendra who has been keeping a low profile began to appear in the public. On one day in May 2010 he made a public statement that he was betrayed. Country-wide strike by pro-king forces demanding restoration of Hindu state on 24/6/10 has hit life in Nepal. Ruling coalition parties declared that Ex –King Gyanendra is still a threat to Nepal. 3. As the stalemate continued in the peace process and in drafting the constitution, P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal on 22/5/10 said “I never favored the idea of House (constituent assembly) writing the constitution.” 4. Encouraged by the stalemate in drafting the constitution and the statements by Ex and Present P.Ms, deposed king Gyanendra has stepped up his public activity to create public opinion in his favour. 5. In a significant development, the son-in-law of king Gyanendra, Raj Bahadar Singh, to pursue active politics on 17/7/10 joined Nepali Janata Dal(NJD), which is close to Maoists.

II. Indo-Nepal Relations : 1. Traditional Friendly Relations : Nepal is the only country in the world with which India has got special relations. Though China borders on the north, only 5km border is convenient for transportation. But the whole India-Nepal border of 1580km on 3 sides is open and people of the two countries can move freely, without any passport or visas. Culturally also they are close. It is not out of place to recall how Pandit Nehru(P.M) helped the king Tribhuvan to acquire his powers from the Ranas in 1950. Even though king Tribhuvan suggested merger of Nepal with India its was not accepted by India. 2. Various Bilateral Treaties : It is also to be noted that Nepal, a land-locked country is solely dependent upon India for its imports and exports. There are four Agreements relating to the Ino-Nepal Relations.

a. Indo-Nepal Peace and Friendship Treaty(1950): This is the most controversial though important. The Treaty envisages the following: To respect each other country’s sovereignty, to discuss problems faced by them from the other countries and to find solutions, and the Indians in Nepal will have the same rights, which the Nepalis in India will have. But the controversial clauses are: giving India a say in Nepal’s purchase of military by equipment from a third country and granting India first preference for industrial and natural resource projects in Nepal. There were demands not only by Maoists leader Prachanda but also by some previous regimes to review the treaty. GOI(Government of India) also says that it has no objection. Some analysts suggest that New Delhi will be wise to follow Gujaral’s Doctrine-which states as its first tenet that with its neighbors like Bangladesh. Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal also Sri Lanka, India does not ask for reciprocity, but gives and accomodates what it can in good faith and trust.

b. Trilateral agreement between Nepal, Britan and India 1947 related to recruitment Gurkhas A trilateral agreement was entered into between Nepal, India and along with U.K in 1947 regarding the recruitment of Gurkhas for their respective armies. The Maoists leader Prachnda said no more recruitment by U.K. It has to be understood that it applies to India also. c. Agreement of 1965 related to Royal Army: An agreement of 1965 by which India agreed to help Royal Nepalese Army is updating, restructuring and arming it. d. Trade and Transit Treaty: Another important item is Trade and Transit Treaty which facilitates Nepal for importing petrol, kerosene, cement, medicines etc the essential goods and for exporting Nepali goods. This has to be extended from time to time. Nepal faced many problems hitherto in getting extensions. 3. Hydro Electric Projects: About 243 rivers or rivulets flow between the two countries such as Karmali, Kali Gandag, Sonkosi, Gandag, Aruna etc. There are misunderstandings between the two countries relating to utilization of the rivers for hydro electric projects. India constructed an hydro electric project called Kosi project long time back, which was useful for both countries. Similarly, India proposed Pancheswari, Sapta kosi etc. But Nepal feels that they are in the interest of India only. 4. Export of Terrorism by ISI through Nepal : This was evident when Indian passenger plane was hijacked to Kandhahar(Afghanistan) from Kathmandu during the NDA government regime of Prime Minister A.B.Vajpayee. 5. About Role of India : There is a feeling among some in Nepal, especially among the Maoists that Indian is hobhobbing with U.S and U.K in supporting the monarchy. As the situation in Nepal is changing, naturally India’s position underwent changes. Till the king was strripped of his powers, India’s stand was that Nepal should have constitutional monarchy and Democratic government. Though under the treaty, India was obliged to supply weapons to Royal Nepalese Army, it stopped the supply, But in a public meeting on 15/5/08, all the main political party

leaders, including P.M Koirala, Prachanda criticissed India and said that there was a threat from India to Nepal’s Nationality. 6. P.M’s Visit-Tradition : Previously every P.M of Nepal chose to visit India first. But Prime Minister Prachanda visited China first. But it was clarified that it was not a political visit as he attended the closing ceremony of Olympic games in Beijing.

7. Various Official visits between the two countries and the outcome: a. One can find a number of official visits between the two countries. Foreign Secretary Shiv Sanker Menon visited Kathmandu in Feb 09 when Maoist Leader Prachanda was the Prime Minister and also in June 09 after Madhav Kumar Nepal became P.M. By that time the South Indian Hindu priests in the famous Pasupathi Nath temple were replaced by local people. P.M Prachnda was urged to continue the tradition of appointing South Indian priests. P.M Prachnda claimed on 10/1/09 that U.S was encircling China through India. In India there are reports that China is tring to wean away Nepal army and a number of Chinese officials visited Nepal. Many issues relating to security were discussed. P.M Prachanda said there is lack of trust in bilateral ties. By June 09, there were reports with India won trying to encroach upon Nepal territory. It was sorted out. It was agreed to sign a boundary Map. A joint committee was set up for that task. b. There was a breach in Kosi Project in Nepal which killed 1000 people, India was blamed for this Union water resource Minister Bansal visited the Dam, met his counter part. India mooted 269 meter high Dam to solve the problem. c. Nepal’s Foreign Minister Sujatha Koirala was in New Delhi in August 09 first week, border management, the alleged encroachment by 8 India, political mechanism to promote ties between the two nations were discussed. d. Nepalese P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal visited India in the middle of Aug 2009. He met the leaders of all political parties including the opposition Maoists before coming to India to seek suggestion on Indo-Nepal Relations. Maoists suggested scrapping up of all unfair treaties including 1950 treaty. Nepalese Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal during his 5-day visit to India, met Prime Minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh, the UPA chair person Sonia Gandhi and leaders of all political parties, including both communist parties. He also addressed a joint meeting of the group of 15 political parties which supported the Democratic process in Nepal. All issues relating to bilateral issues were discussed. India and Nepal agreed to review the 59-year old bilateral treaty of Peace and Friendship which has been the subject of much criticism in Nepal. The joint statement issued at the conclusion of the visit said that the foreign secretaries of both countries will discuss and review the 1950 treaty and other bilateral agreements with a view to further strengthening the bilateral relationship. The two sides expressed satisfaction at the

progress made in the preparation of boundary strip-maps. PM of Nepal assured PM Dr.Man Mohan Singh that he will not allow its territory to be used for any activities against India.

e. New Foreign Secretary .Nirupama Rao visited Kathmandu on 14/9/09. Both admitted Trust Deficit. Fake India currency issue which was coming from Pakistan through Nepal also was discussed. f. Home secretaries of two countries met on 7/11/09, especially to take steps to prevent Fake Indian currency through Nepal. g. Union Minister for Industry and Commerce Aanad Sarma was in Nepal on October 2009. Both decided to curb illegal trade across the border. h. External affairs Minister S.M.Krishna has chosen to visit Nepal as his first foreign visit as External Affairs Minister in January 2010. Maoists burnt copies of the Peace and Friendship treaty S.M.Krishna reiterated India’s willingness to review the controversial treaty. He met P.M Madhav Kumar Nepal and other leaders in Kathmandu. S.M.Krishna and his Nepalese counter-part Deputy P.M Sujatha Koirala signed an MOU to strengthen roads infrastructure in the Tarai region worth Rs.1300 crores. The other two MOUs signed include supply of electricity to five border villages and establishment of science learning centre in Nepal. i. President Ram Baran Yadav of Nepal was in New Delhi in Feb 2010, met President Pratibha Devi Singh Patil and other leaders. Two pacts, one relating to rail connectivity, air service and Extension of Railway link at five border points, the other pact-relating to soft loan of 250million dollars, signed besides supply of food grain to Nepal. j. There was uproar in Nepal as India firms won passport deal, which facilitates Indian firms to prepare and supply them to government of Nepal and the result was its cancellation. k. Government of India proposed construction of border road along India-Nepal border touching Bihar at an estimated cost of Rs.1752 crores to boost border trade between the two countries, which the other side has to accept.

Pakistan

1. Introducing Pakistan a. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan was created on 14/8/1947 by partitioning India (Indian sub-continent)into India and Pakistan. Pakistan is bordering with Iran on the West, Afghanistan on the North, India on the East, and Arabian sea on the South. The area of Pakistan [excluding POK(Pakistan occupied Kashmir)] is 8,03,943sq kms with a population of 11.2 crores(1990). Ethnic composition: Punjabi 48.2%; Pashto13.1%; Sindh 11.8%; Saraki 9.8%; Urdu 7.6%; others 9.5%; Religious Affiliations: Muslims 96.7%; Christians 1.6%; Hindus 1.5%; others 0.2:.

b. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $ 177.9 B GDP per head: $ 1067 c. The capital of Pakistan is Islamabad. Pakistan was born with problems, and in problems and living with problems. When Pakistan was created in 1948, there were West Pakistan and East Pakistan, But in 1971, the Bangladesh people (People who speak Bengali) fought a liberation war against West Pakistan and Bangladesh was formed in the place of East Pakistan. 2. Pakistan’s Fragile Democracy a. Chronology of Events upto 2007 1951 : Jinnah’s successor Liaquat Ali Khan was assassinated. 1958 : General Ayyub Khan took over while martial law was imposed in Pakistan. 1960 : General Ayyub Khan became president. 1971 : Bangladesh Liberation War, Pakistan was defeated and Bangladesh was formed. Ayub khan was replaced by yahya khan and zulfiqar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan People’s Party became the Prime Minister. 1972 : Shimla Agreement between Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistan Prime Minster Z.A. Bhutto. 1977 : Riots erupted over allegations of vote-rigging by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party(PPP). General Zia ul-Haq staged military coup.

1978 : General Zia became president of Pakistan. 1979 : Zulfiqar Ali Bhuto was hanged on the ground that he was a traitor and acted against the interest of Pakistan. 1986 : Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s daughter Benazir returned from exile to lead PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) for fresh elections. 1988 : General Zia, the US ambassador and top Pakistan army officials died in mysterious air crash. - Ghulam Ishaq Khan took over as acting president, and was later elected to the post. - Benazir Bhutto’s PPP won the general election and she became the Prime Minister. 1988 : India - Pakistan summit after three decades between Prime Minister Rajeev Gandhi and Benzir Butto decided to sort out all issues including Kashmir issue through negotiations. 1990 : Benazir Bhutto was dismissed as prime minister on charges of incompetence and corruption. (Evidently there are forces who oppose the solution of Kashmir Problem. Benazir’s father Z.A. Bhutto was hanged because of the Shimla Agreement entered into between Z.A. Bhotto and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi)

1991: Prime Minister Nawaz Shariff of Pakistan Muslim League (PML) began economic liberalization programme. Islamic Shariah law was formally incorporated into legal code. 1993: Both, President Khan and Prime Minister Sharif resigned under pressure from military. General election brought Benazir Bhutto back to power. 1996: President Leghari dismissed Bhutto government on corruption allegations. 1997: Nawaz Shariff returned as prime minister after the Pakistan Muslim League party (PML) won elections. 1999: Benazir Bhutto and her husband were convicted of corruption and given jail sentences. Benazir stayed out of the country. -Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was overthrown in military coup led by General Pervez Musharraf. Coup was widely condemned and Pakistan was suspended from Commonwealth. 2000: Nawaz Sharif was sentenced to life imprisonment on hijacking and terrorism charges. He went into exile in Saudi Arabia after being pardoned by military authorities. 2001: Gen Pervez Musharraf named himself president while remaining head of the army. He replaced Rafiq Tarar, who vacated the post earlier after the parliament that elected him was dissolved. 2004: Leading nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan admitted to have leaked nuclar weapons secrets. Nuclear Technology was said to have been transferred to Libya, North Korea and Iran. -Parliament approved creation of military-led National Security Council, institutionalizing role of armed forces in civilian affairs. -Shaukat Aziz was sworn in as prime minister. 2006: Security forces killed prominent Balochistan tribal leader, Nawab Akbar Bugti. Protests over his death turned violent. b. Chronology of Events 2007

Sep 10: Former P.M Nawaz Sharif(Exiled in 2000 returns to Pak, only to be sent back to Saudi Arabia 4 hours later. Oct 6: Pervez Musharaff wins presidential election in the poll boycotted by the opposition. Oct 18: Ex P.M Benazir Bhutto, leader of Pak Peoples party returned to Pak after 8 years in exile, following power-sharing pact with Musharaff, brokered by the USA. 139 killed in her home-coming parade in Karachi. Nov 3 : President Musharaff imposes state of emergency, sacks Sixty judges of Supreme Court and various High Courts including the CJP (Chief Justice of Pakistan) and were placed under house arrest to prevent them from giving judgments against his administration suspends constitution, arrests key opposition leaders.

Nov 9 : Benizir Butto was put under House Arrest for a day. Nov 12 : Benazir Butto rules out further power-sharing talks with Musharaff, and she was placed under House Arrest again. Nov 22 : Supreme Court Rules Musharaff’s presidency legal. Nov 25 : Nawaz Shariff of Pakistan Muslim League (N- Nawaz Sharriff) successfully returns to Pakistan from exile. Nov 28 : President Musharaff resigns as army chief under pressure. Nov 29 : Musharaff sworn in as president and announces plans to lift emergency on 16/12/07. Dec 27 : Benazir Butto was killed in shooting incident and suicide attack in a campaign in Rawalpindi. Jan 2, 08 : Government postpones parliamenting polls to 18/2/08. 3. Polls on 18/2/08 for National Assembly and 4 provincial Assemblies. The International observers held that the elections were fair. a. National Assembly polls results: Total seats 342. Pro-Musharaff Parties: i. P.M.L (Q)(Pakistan Muslim League - Q)-66 ii. MMA(Muttahida Majlis –e- Amal, a religious Coalition of 6 parties got-5(It got 9 seats in 2002 polls) iii. MQM(Mutta- hidmal, Qaum Movement) got -19. This is a coalition of 6 groups, mainly representing people migrated from India. They feel that they are being treated as second class citizens in Pakistan. Most of them reside in Sindh province only. - one of the 6 groups in MMA, Jamait–e-ulema Islami(JUI party) headed by Maulana Fazlur Rahman fell out from MMA. Anti-Musharaff parties i. P.P.P(Pakistan Peoples Party)-121 ii. PML (N) - (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Sharif)-91 iii. ANP (Awami National Party-13 b. Provincial Assemblies i. Punjab: Total Seats-307 PML(N)-102,PPP-78,PML(Q)-66 ii. Sind:

PPP-65, PML (Q)-9 PPP leader Jardari tried to form a coalition Government with PML(Q) and other pro Musharaff Parties. But ultimately PPP came to an understanding with PML(N) and formed a coalition government under Murre Declaration. PPP leader Gilani became P.M. ANP joined the coalition. It is to be noted that the Pak army, led by army chief Kayani, was kept in the barracks during the elections. 4. Murree Declaration and Government Formation a. The Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Muslim League(N) agreed on the framework of a governing coalition on 10/3/08 at Murree. The agreement represented the move of the two parties, Mr.Sharif said,” to form a coalition government to strengthen democracy.” This is the text of the six-point summit declaration regarding the formation of government. PML (N) leader Nawaz Sharif and PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari signed the declaration in Bhurban: i. Allied parties, the Pakistan People’s Party and the Pakistan Muslim League(N) resolve to form a coalition government for giving a practical shape to the mandate, which was given to the democratic forces by the people of Pakistan on Feb 18,08. ii. This has been decided in the summit between the PPP and the PML(N) that the deposed judges would be restored, on the position as they were on Nov2, 07, within 30 days of the formation of the federal government through a parliamentary resolution. iii. The parties agreed that all allied parties would fully support the candidate for the position of prime Minister, nominated by the PPP. The PML (N) suggested that the candidate for P.M should be such person who can take ahead the common agenda of the allied parties. iv. The parties agreed that the Speaker and the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly would be from the PPP while the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the Punjab Assembly would be from the PML (N). v. Both the parties agreed that the PML (N) would be a part of the federal government while the PPP would be a part of the Punjab government.

vi. This is the solid opinion of the leaderships of both the parties that the allied parties are ready for forming the governments and the sessions of the National and Provincial Assemblies be summoned immediately b. Two senior U.S officials viz., Deputy Secretary of state Negroponte and Assistant Secretary of state Richard Boucher met PPP & PML (N) Leaders and also Musharaff on 25/3/08. c. PPP leader Yousaf Raza Gilani was made the Prime Minister of Pakistan. - P.M Gilani immediately ordered the release of the sacked Judges. Taking advantage of the unsettled situation in Pak, U.S army continued its attacks on the tribal areas of NWFP (North West Frontier Province) to fight the Taliban and AlQaida militants, without the approval of either the Government or Pak army.

5. Problems to be solved by the New Government Pak Cabinet was sworn in on 31/3/08: 11 cabinet positions for PPP, 9 for PML (N) and 2 for ANP, 1 for Jamat-e-Ulema Islami and one for Federally Administered Tribal Areas. PPP Leader Zardari met MQM chief Altaf Hussain and both agree to work together. Thus bitter rivals were ready to move together for the sake of the future generations. i. Pervez Musharaff : PML (N) leader is for impeachment of Musharaff, while PPP is not for it. One cannot ignore the American position to save him. There is nothing in Murre Declaration about this. ii. Reinstatement of sacked Judges : Muree Declaration is for their reinstatement within 30 days of the installation of the government which ended by 30/4/08. Serious differences cropped up within the coalition government. This is a serious problem for the government Musharaff is against the reinstatement of CJP. Iflikhar Chaudary. USA never asked for reinstatement of the Judges. iii. Terrorism : There are serious differences between this USA and the present government on this issue. USA wants to attack the terrorists in NWFP directly, if Pak fails to intensify its fight against them. ANP has already entered in to a peace agreement with the terrorists. Government also favours peace with the Taliban and Al Queda, though it was not made clear. But Army chief says they will fight terrorism. iv. Relations with India: Pak government is speaking in so many voices though the dominant opinion is to continue the composite dialogue.

6. Series of Political and other crisis in Pakistan and other Developments a. President Musharaff stepped down and Zardari became president. Deadlock on the issue of reinstatement of 60 Judges continued as PPP is not for reinstatement of the chief Justice. Political crisis in the government followed as the PML (N) withdrew from the government on 12/5/08. PML(N) leader is demanding that president Musharaff should quit on his own accord or he shall face impeachment. PPP leader Zardari said Musharaff is a stumbling block. Long march by Lawyers of all Bar Associations including the supreme court on 9/6/08. Impeachment proceedings against Musharaff were launched in parliament. Musharaff stepped down on 18/8/08. After intense negotiations between PPP and PML (N), Asif Ali Zardari of the P.P.P was elected as president by parliament on 6/9/08.

b. Dispute regarding under whose control the ISI is: ISI was said to be under the control of the Pak army. But Prime Minister Gilani asserted that it is under its control. But interior Ministry said that ISI is under its control. But army chief declared that ISI is under his control, clearing the confusion in Oct08. But the political wing of ISI was disbanded and ISI will focus on internal security. c. Relations between the Pak government and the Taliban: It is no secret that Pak Taliban, Afghan Taliban, Al Queda, LeT, JeH etc terrorist groups are closely working together. USA wants the Pak government to fight them seriously. U.S tripled its Pak aid in order to encourage the government to fight the terror seriously. In the meantime on 26/11/01 the attacks on Taj Hotel

etc in Mumbai took place for which India blamed Lashker-e-Taiba and wants Pak to take proper action against the culprits and cooperate to work to prevent terror attacks on India. But Pak government entered into a peace agreement with the Taliban to establish Islamic courts in Swat Valley in Jan 09. It is to be noted that 16,148 Madrassas are there in Pak which are being used by the Islamists to continue their terror activities. Thus Pak is in the grip of Taliban. U.S has intensified its drone attacks, under mining the Pak government, whose credibility is declining. Again big rift between the government and the opposition PML(N) was created on the issue of reinstatement of dismissed Judges. In spite of interference by Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State and U.S. Special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan Holbroke the crisis continued. But ultimately the army settled it and Chief Justice of Pak Iftekhar Chowdary will be reinstated on 23/3/09 and ultimately it was complied with

d. On 10/4/09 Pakistani P.M Gilani vowed to make president Zardari a figure head. There are now 6 power centers in Pak viz President, P.M, Army, Supreme Court, ISI and Terrorists. The epi-centre naturally will be Washington. There was no alternative except to fight the terrorists in Swat Valley which is a Haven for all sorts of terrorists. $800 million gem, marble, illegal trade is funding the Taliban in Balochistan. Only 38% of NWFP (North West Frontier Province) is in the control of Pak Government. By 15/5/09, 6.7 lakh civilians in Swat Valley were registered as refugees eventhough 20lakh civilians were displaced. The news came out that DickCheney, the then Vice President of U.S ordered the killing of Benezir Butto. Ex president Musharaff vacated the army House in Rawalpindi as forced by the government in May 09 and went abroad and is living there only. P.M said 1700 Militants were killed in NWFP. e. When the battle was going on between president Zardari(of PPP) and opposition Leader Nawaz Shariff of PML(N), the Supreme Court disqualified both Nawaz Shariff and his brother and they are prohibited to hold any public office. So, Nawaz Shariff’s brother resigned to the post of Chief Minister of Punjab. After some time when both the parties came to an understanding, the disqualification was set aside. f. President Zardari agreed to give up his powers to sack government, to dissolve parliament and to appoint governors, imposition of emergency as demanded by PML(N) Leader Nawaz Sharif and PM Gilani. Imposition of emergency by Musharaff on 3/11/07 was held illegal by the Supreme Court on 31/7/09, with the result that all actions by Musharaff government such as sacking of Judges were held illegal. But the Supreme Court has exempted Zardari and asked him to continue as president as he was elected. There were demands for action against Musharaff and an arrest warrant was issued by a District court and he began seeking asylum. g. Pak government is facing another serious crisis. President Musharaff issued in Oct 07 an ordinance known as NRO(National Reconciliation Ordinance) withdrawing all cases (Corruption as well as criminal) against Benezir’s husband Zardari and other politicians, bureaucrats, numbering 8000. It was the result of reconciliation between Musharaff and Benezir Bhutto at

the instance of the USA. There was corruption charges as well as criminal cases against Zardari. All cases were withdrawn as he was elected as president. But on 16/12/09 the Supreme Court held N.R.O null and void. The Government could not get the NRO ratified by the parliament as the opposition PML(N) and some elements in PPP did not agree for the measure. The wife of P.M Gilani is also one of the beneficiaries under NRO. It is now reported that president Zardari has millions of dollars in Foreign Banks especially in Swiss banks. President Zardari expressed his willingness to become P.M after shedding all powers of the president. But now his fate is in balance. PML(N) chief demands that action should be taken against all beneficiaries of NRO. Arrests warrants are pending against some Ministers also.

h. Ex-President Musharaff who has been living abroad since April 09, expressed his willingness to jump into politics either by giving oxyzen to his old party of PML(Q) or starting a new party. But Supreme Court Judgement on NRO opens doors for many criminal charges against Musharaff. i. There are indications and experts analysis show that the army chief Kayani may try to resolve the crisis. Pak is admittedly a failed state. Anything may happen at anytime. The elements of democracy which have become visible in the last days of Musharaff’s regime and afterwards became invisible. j. There is no let up in violence all over Pak. President Zardari rejected Afg-Pak policy of US President Obama. He accused the west for creating militants. k. Speaking at the graveyard of his wife Benezir on 27/12/09 on the second death anniversary, the beleaguered president Zardari who was under pressure to quit pledged to protect democracy from conspirators against it. He has not clarified who those conspirators were. 7. Supreme Court’s verdict holding National Reconciliation Ordinance(NRO) null and void and after a. In Oct 2007, the then president Musharaff issued National Reconciliation Ordinance(NRO) withdrawing all cases(corruption as well as criminal) against Benazir’s husband Zardari(Now president of Pak) and other politicians, bureaucrats, numbering 8000. But on 16/12/09 the Supreme Court held NRO null and void. The government could not get the NRO ratified by parliament. b. The Pak government, to save president Zardari immediately after the verdict, moved the Supreme Court for immunity from corruption and other charges. But chief Justice of Pak ordered reopening of corrupttion charges against president Zardari. He also ordered National Accountability Bureau(NAB) to implement the Supreme Court’s verdict on the NRO within 48

hours. But the Pak governments told the Supreme Court on 6/5/10 that the graft cases against president Zardari were closed.

c. Fresh crisis between the Judiciary and the Government as the Supreme Court suspended the Judicial appointments(Two persons were appointed as Supreme Court Judges) made by the president, thus raising a fresh crisis. But the Prime Minister saved the situation by withdrawing the orders of appointment. But in the first week of November 2010, the newly constituted Judicial Commission gave the Chief Justice of Pakistan powers to initiate nominations in the Commissioner for appointment of Judges. d. President Zardari under pressure, Okays Law to slash his presidential powers and to become a figure head. But his attempts to become a hero by telling the same to the parliament directly to amend the constitution to that effect were spoiled by Nawaz Shariff, the leader of

his coalition partner. But the National Assembly and the senate passed the 18th amendment to the constitution and the sweepping powers of the president were removed. e. There were allegations that president Zardari has slashed away black money in Swiss Banks. So the National Accountability Bureau asked the Swiss Banks to reopen the case against Zardai. But it was rejected by the Swiss authorities. So the Supreme Court asked the Government to move the Swiss authorities in the matter. But the Swiss authorities rejected the government’s request also. f. The Supreme Court verdict on NRO opened doors for many criminal cases against ex-president Pervez Musharaff. After submission of UN Report on Benazir’s death, which said that president Musharaff could have prevented the event, an FIR was registered against him. The court declared Musharaff as a proclaimed offender. g. U.S has expanded drone attacks on Pakistan soil which indicates the decline of its sovereignty. h. Meanwhile a new terrorist group called Ghaza Force emerged in July 2010. Imran Khan, veteran cricket player and founder of Tehrick-e-insaf said Al-Qaida is a product of CIA. Pak army declared that it was finding the Taliban very tough to be rooted out. The ISI said on 17/8/2010

that militants, not India a threat to Pak. Pak is described as the 10th failed state in the world by a popular magazine. One U.S report said Pak is slipping into Iran-style Islamic Revolution. i. U.S special envoy Holbrook said” we have extensive discussions with the army chief of Pakistan in Aug 2010. We find Kayani, the army chief is a key political factor. Among general officeers, he is remarkable strategic thinker.” US used its good offices to get extension for 3 years for Kayani. It is significant to note that Pak has began talks with Israel to recognize it which pleases the US.

j. There is news that terrorists in NWFP are shifting their base to urban Pak from NWFP to escape US drone attacks as the drone attacks wiped out 70% of the Al Qaida leaders. “Pak is my biggest worry and not Afghanistan” said US vice president Biden in Feb 2010.

8. Unstable situation in Pakistan Continues : a. The over-all situation in Pakistan is very unstable. Very rarely a day passes without any suicide attack or blast in some part or other in Pakistan, in addition to the U.S drone attacks from Afghanistan on to Swat Valley or North or Sough Wazirstan areas in North West Frontier Province. The Balochistan province is also not under the control of the central or any government at all. The Foreign policy Magazine of Washington in June 2010 described Pakistan

as the 10th most failed state. The Pakistan army intelligence ISI for the first time in 63 years has determined in Aug 2010 that Islamaist militants and not India pose the main threat to Pakistan. b. The floods in Aug 2010 devastated Pakistan and it was said that about 13.8 million people were affected and it added to the woes of Pakistan. The army chief, whose term was extended for three years from Sep 2010, at the instance of the U.S, became key political figure in Pakistan politics. There was news that the civilian government has thoroughly failed to give the flood relief to the people. The army got the credit of serving the people during the floods. There are rumors that there is a likelihood of army take-over in Pakistan. Meanwhile an official of U.S has warned on 4/8/10 that Pak is slipping into an Iran-Style Islamic revolution as fundamentalism in Pakistan is finding support from the army and the ISI. It has become very difficult to predict the future of Pak.

c. A report by the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency said that Pak President Zardari has become a liability to his party and the government. It can be concluded that president Zardari has become a liability to the US. It is significant to note the opinion of US special envoy Hal-brooke that army chief Kayani has became a key figure in Pakistan politics. Kayani has began to accuse president Zardari and PM Gilani of thorough failure in providing flood relief to people and to pressurize them to take action against the corrupt Ministers and officials and gave them a list. But they failed to take action.

d. The gap between the US administration and the present government of Zardari has widened when the US started army attacks on Pakistan entering it from Afghanistan and Pak closed the entry to the US army supply trucks into Afghanistan from Pakistan. e. Realizing that there is a power vacuum in his country, ex-president Musharaff who is staying in London started moving his pawns to reach out to the US without whose support, nobody could came power in Pakistan. From London itself he floated his political party. He also said that USA should not withdraw its army from Afghanistan as that will unleash a wave of

terrorism. In an interview, which was given good publicity, he admitted that Pak has set up and nurtured terrorist groups, meaning that USA was not responsible for the emergence of terrorist groups. Immediately Pentagon described Musharaf was a close allay of the USA. All these developments go to show that US is thinking of various options about the future administrative setup in Pakistan. It is not out of place to recall what Musharaff has said when he was in power in Pak. He declared that American CIA and Pak ISI has given military training to one lakh Muslim youth in Pakistan with a view to fight the Soviet Army in Afghanistan. f. It is interesting to note that on 8-11-2010, former US President Gorge W Bush who invaded Afghanistan in the name of catching hold of Osama bin Laden in 2001 said that President Barack Obama failed and messed up on Pakistan. There are reports that the successive Governments in Pakistan failed to account for Billions of dollars given by the USA as aid on various heads. II. Indo-Pakistan Relations 1. Introduction : British India was divided into India and Pakistan at the behest of British imperialists in 1947. Naturally there are some bilateral issues. Even after more than six decades, and even after four wars not a single issue was resolved and more over some new issues are being added. If another war occurs between India and Pakistan, there is no guarantee that it will not be a nuclear war. Friendly relations between the two countries existed only for short periods. Both countries have been incurring heavy losses on account of the wars and tensions and lack of friendly relations, even though common people in both the countries aspire for good neighborly relations. Both India and Pakistan are members of SAARC(South Asia Association fro Regional Cooperation), but there is no forward movement in it as Pakistan used to raise the bilateral issues relating to India and Pakistan. Many summits of both countries took place but with no much positive results. Even though some agreements were concluded between the two countries relating to some issues, they were never implemented with the result not a single was resolved. Even though Pakistan has shown some interest in the Non-Aligned Movement in its formative days, it left it and joined the American camp. Thus during and after the end of the cold war period also, Pakistan remained a camp follower of the United States of America, which has been a beneficiary because of the unfriendly relations between the great South Asian neighbors. It is high time that the leaders and especially the rulers of both the countries must realize that unless good friendly neighborly relations are established by resolving all bilateral issues, only the third parties will be the beneficiaries and both the countries would be continued to be put to heavy losses not only economically but even otherwise also.

2. Bilateral Issues: There are many bilateral issues between India and Pakistan which will be serialised. But Kashmir problem is the most important of them.

a. Issue of Jammu and Kashmir(J&K) Jammu and Kashmir was one of the many princely states in British India which lies between India and Pakistan. Afghanistan and China also are border countries. There are three regions in Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu region in which Hindus will be in majority, Ladakh region in which Buddhists will be in majority and Kashmir valley region in which Muslims will be in majority. On the whole in J&K, Muslims will be in majority. The ruler of the princely state was Hari Kishore Singh, a Hindu king, father of Karan Singh, Ex-Union minister. The British India rulers gave an option to the rulers of the princely states that they may join either India or Pakistan or if they want they can be independent. The ruler of J&K signed a standstill Agreement with Pakistan which indicates preservation of status quo. But he was hesitant to join either Hindu majority India or Muslim majority Pakistan and he did not make his decision by 15/8/1947. But rumors were spread in pakistan that the Hindu king was trying to accede his princely state to India and Indian armed forces will occupy Kashmir. So, Pakistan dispatched its army to Kashmir. Pakistan para-military forces and Pathuns invaded Kasjmir in September 1947. Seeing these developments, the ruler of the princely state acceded his state to India and signed the instrument of Accession. By this time the invaders were near capital Srinagar. So there was no alternative for India except to send its army to protect Kashmir, which has become part and parcel of India by the Instrument of Accession. The Indian army seized some parts of Kashmir after much bloodshed. Already in northern India and in Pakistan there were riots between Hindus and Muslims. In order to avoid further bloodshed both India and Pakistan declared ceasefire and approached the UNO and both agreed to resolve the dispute through plebiscite. In 1957 North-Western Kashmir was fully integrated into Pakistan and it became Azad Kashmir or Pak Administered Kashmir or Pak occupied Kashmir(POK). The rest of the portion which came under Indian control has become the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In 1962 China occupied Aksai chin, the North Eastern region bordering Ladakh. The line that separates India and China in the region is known as the Line of Actual Control(LAC) while the line be tween POK and Indian controlled area in Jammu and Kashmir is known as Line of Control(LOC). This is recognized by the UNO. Thus one third J&K has been under occupation of Pakistan. Pakistan has ceded some area to China near Karakoram passpura. It is necessary to identify the Line Of Control (LOC) Line of Actual Control (LAC). There is international border to a lengh of 198kms starting from Madhapur to Sangam in Jammu region. The LOC will be from Sangan to Pt N.T 9847(Point Nuetral Jone) which will be 778kms. The AGPL(Actual Ground Position Line) or L.A.C is from Pt. NT 9842 to Indira col which will be 150kms. The LOC can be devided into three sectors.

- Poonch Sector: This starts from Rajouri in Jammu region and passes through Poonch sector in Jammu and extends upto Kupwara in Kashmir sector. Pakistan always tries to violate this line. So, Indian army which is kept here will be very alert to prevent Pak army or militants crossing over the Indian side.

- Kargil Sector: The National High Way NH 1 which can be described as a lifeline to Jammu as well as Kashmir region will pass through this sector. The distance between the National High Way and LOC will be very short around 4 to 12kms. The National High Way will be opened only for five months from June to October in the year. - Siachin Glacier area or Sector: This starts in Kargil, passes to east and ends at Nuetral Zone(NZ 9842). The distance of LOC from Rajouri upto NZ 9842 will be 740kms. The LOC from Nz 9842 to Turkuk in Saltoro Ridge area will be 110kms. Pakistan tried to disturb the LOC many a time. Thus the whole of Jammu and Kashmir can be divided into seven areas or sectors. 1. Rajouri-Poonch 2) Poonch 3) Ladakh 4) Kashmir valley 5) Kargil 6) Pak occupied Kashmir 7)Northern areas where Baltistan is an important area. As already noted this kashmir issue is very important one which Pak always tries to internationalise it. b. Siachen Glacier : This strategic area will be at a height of about 20,000 feet above the sea level. Around this area, are Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and Northern Territories including Gilgit and Baltistan, which are under Pakistan occupation. One will find Karakoram mountains to the East of Siachen Glaciers and Kargil town will be to the South. The area of Siachen will be about 500sq kms. The length of this area will be about 70kms and the width varies from 2 to 8kms. This is the longest glacier in the Karakoram mountains and second longest in the world’s non-polar areas. This glacier is a major source for Indus River. Nubra River which starts from this glacier will join Shyok River which inturn joins the Indus River. Due to Global Warming, Siachen glaciers is being subjected to abnormal melting of ice. It has been found that the volume of the glacier has been significantly reduced over recent decades.

- Siachen Glaciers can be considered as the highest battle field in the world. India and Pakistan fought many battles, in this region and much blood had flown here. But the area is not suitable for human inhabitation. Human beings can live here only in summer. The reason for many battles lies in the 1949 Karachi ceasefire agreement entered into between India and Pakistan, which UN facilitated. There is an ambiguity in defining the ceasefire line. As per the ceasefire agreement the ceasefire line ends at point NZ 9842, where Khore town is there and there is an area of 65sq kms where there is no clearcut ceasefire line. The ceasefire agreement used the following words to indicate the ceasefire line from the Pt NZ 9842 “THENCE NORTH TO THE GLACIERS”. India and Pakistan interprets this differently and in their own convenient way. According to India the ceasefire line extends from NZ 9842 to Siacong rioan China border. This line passes through Bilafondla, Indira col (pass). But according to Pakistan from NZ 9842, the ceasefire line runs into the Karakoram mountains situated on the North East to pt NZ 9842. Even 1972 Shimla Agreement did not clarify the ambiguity. Here the ceasefire line is called LAC(Line of Actual Control). Both sides tried their level best to show that this area is in their position. They tried to creat evidence to prove the point. Between 1974-80, Pakistan encouraged many foreign expeditions to reach this Siachen Glaciers. But India sent an army contingent to keep a watch over the area in the summer of 1978. Similarly India used to do the same in subsequent summers also. But Pakistan in 1983 managed to send its security force sometime before India could send its force and declared that the area was in its position. Then

onwards India has been keeping its army contingent throughout the year with much expenditure and loss of army people. India could build its army bases in Bilafondla and Soltoro Ridge and sealed the ways from and to Siachen Glaciers. Pak was not only surprised but expressed its anxiety at the developments. Thus from 1983 onwards, admittedly Siachen Glaciers has been in possession and full control of India.

- To solve this dispute relating to Siachen Glaciers there were five rounds of talks between India and Pakistan between 1986-1989. In the round held in Rawalpindi in 1989, there was an announcement in Rawalpindi from both sides(army) that an agreement was reached. But both New Delhi and Islamabad clarified that no agreement was reached. - The ceasefire has been on hold since 26/11/03. Altogether ten rounds of talks took place till 2004 Feb when this issue was included in the composite Dialogue along with other disputes. c. Sir Creek Dispute: This Sir Creek Dispute relates to boundary between Gujarat state in India and Sindh province in Pakistan. Sir Creek is named after a local British officer, the original name of which was “Bann Ganga”. It is 96km width of a canal whose boundaries will be changing due to Arabian sea. It is an uninhabited marshlands in Rann of Kutch in Gujarat. This Creek which opens up into the Arabian Sea which may be called as the mouth of Sir Creek. This starts from the month and extends upto point B in the map in the Rann of Kutch. But the dispute between B and A was settled by an international tribunal in 1968. Pakistan got about 10% of the 2000sq kms. - Sir Creek dispute contributed much to the 1965 Indo-Pak war. The dispute gained importance due to more than one reason. It is discovered that there is abundant oil and gas reserves not only in marshlands but also in the Kutch basin. The area of Kutch basin is about 43,000sq kms. But in an area of 7,000sq kms out of the above, there are 20crore Metric tones of oil and gas reserves. More over the Kutch basin is rich in fisheries and other sea foods. The boundary and Exclusive Economic zones (E.E.C)also depend upon the demarcation of boundary between Gujarat and Sindh provinces which again depends upon the resolution of the Sir Creek dispute.

- Pakistan claims rights on the whole of Sir Creek depending upon a map(not on the award) attached to an Award given by the then Bombay Administration in 1914 in a dispute between Sindh and Rann of Kutch rulers which showed the eastern border of Sindh as Cori Creek. Thus the Sir Creek falls in the territory of Sindh province. But Government of India rejected this plea as Pak is not basing its claim on the award but on a map. On the other hand India expressed its readiness to follow the international principle and practice adopted in resolving such disputes, which is known as THAL WEG(Thal:Valley:Weg:Way). Thal Weg principle or practice says: To make the deepest point in the valley or River or canal as the boundary. Thus India proposed

that it has no objection to demarcate the boundary between Sindh and Gujarat basing on the deepest-point in the Sir Creek. But Pak rejected this proposal and claims the whole of Sir Creek.

- Six rounds of Talks held between India and Pak ended with no positive result. This issue was also included in the composite dialogue. d. River Water Disputes : There are some River Water Disputes between India and Pakistan. These disputes are indirectly linked to Kashmir as the later is the origin point for many rivers and their tributaries of the Indus River Basin. In order to settle and avoid Water disputes, the two countries entered into a Indus River Water Treaty in 1960 mediated by the World Bank. It was signed by Indian Prime Minister Pandit Nehru and Pakistan President Ayub Khan. Some of the important provisions are as follows. - Eastern Rivers : There are three Eastern Rivers which are Beas, Ravi, Sutlez which flow into India. India will have exclusive and full rights over the Water in there three rivers, while Pak will have limited rights. Pakistan can use the water for domestic purposes only. - Western Rivers : Thee are three Western Rivers which are Chinab, Sindh and Jhelum which flow into Pakistan. Pakistan will have exclusive and full rights over the utilization of the Water and India will have limited rights. India can use the water for domestic purposes only. - The Treaty created permanent Indus river Commission with two commissioners and one commissioner to be appointed by each country. Both parties agreed to exchange data relating to all aspects of the treaty and to cooperate with each other. - The permanent Indus Commission can resolve any Water dispute relating to Indus River Basin. If they cannot, it has to be referred to the World Bank, which can refer the dispute to a neutral expert if it feels that there are “differences” or to a court of Arbitration if it is a Dispute, who will decide and gave a award, which will be final. The Water disputes can be serialised thus : 1. Tulbul Navigation project(or Wullar Barrage, Dispute relating to Jhelum River, Western River in which Pakistan has exclusive rights over water. India, with a view to keep the Water in the Wullar Lake or the reservoir, wants to construct a dam so that the outflow into the canal can be regulated. India says that this project would be very much useful to Pakistan. Pakistan is using the canal from Wullar Lake for navigation purposes especially from Sodur to Baramullah which are on this canal. For navigation purposes the water level in the canal should be at least 5 feet. But during Oct-Feb the Water level will be only about 2.5feet when the canal cannot be used for navigation purposes. If water is regulated the canal could be used through out the

year, for navigation. But Pakistan objects to the construction of this project saying it violates the Indus River Water Treaty. Work was stopped in 1987 itself. An agreement after 8 rounds of Talks was reached in 1991. But Pakistan wanted India to commit itself not to construct Kishen Ganga Hydro Electric project to which India did not agree. So, the dispute was not settled and it was included in the composite dialogue.

2. Kishen Ganga Hydro Electric project on Jhelum River with a capacity of 390MW: Jhelum River is a Western River and India has got only limited rights over the water. India is entitled to construct Hydro electric projects as per the Indus river treaty to produce 8,769 Mega Watts of electricity. But the total production of electricity in all projects constructed or to be constructed put together will not exceed 1300MWs. But Pakistan is objecting on the ground that it violates Indus river treaty and Pak alleges that India wants to disturb the flow of water in the river in order to cause loss to Pakistan. This was not solved and it was included in the composite dialogue.

3. Balglihar Hydro Electric Project on river Chenab : Chenab is a Western river, in which India has limited rights. It is a 450MW project worth Rs.25,000crores. It was started in 2000 with a view to complete it by 2005. All these projects will help the people in Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan objected to the construction of the project on the ground that it violates Indus River Water Treaty. Pakistan referred the dispute to the World Bank, which in its turn entrusted to a neutral expert, who ultimately gave the award in favor of India. Thus the dispute was resolved and the project was commissioned by Indian prime minister Dr.Man Mohan Singh in October,2008. 4. Swal Kot Dam: The Dam to be built on river Chenab near Udhanpur in Doda district which is only 70 miles away from Pakistan at a height of 646feet at a cost of 2billion dollars to produce 1200MWs electricity. Pakistan is objecting to the project. - Similarly India is constructing 240MW Urill Hydel project on Jhelum River in Kashmir Valley. Thus river also is a Western River in which India has got limited rights. - India is also constructing 44MW CHUTAK Hydel project in Kargil district of Ladakh region. The barrage of the project is located near Sarzho village and the power house will be on the right bank of Saru River near village Chutak Pakistan though objected to the construction of all the three projects, it has chosen to give up its objections to Urill and Chutak projects. e. Cross Border Terrorism: Pakistan which was defeated in direct wars with India, resorted to export of terrorism from 1987 from Pak occupied Kashmir by organizing terrorist camps etc. Cross-border terrorism has become a menance to India. It is to be noted that Pak president Musharaff while in office admitted that they have given military training for one lakh Muslim youth, evidently in the name of driving out the Soviet army from Afghanistan. But as the Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev withdrew his forces from Afghanistan saying that his

country has committed a mistake by sending army to Afghanistan. The militants who were trained in Pakistan by US intelligence service CIA(Central Intelligence Service) and Pak intelligence Agency viz ISI(Inter Services Intelligence) were sent to Kashmir, to create problem to India and to serve Pak and US interests. The cross border terrorism started in 1987 was being continued till now. It is also necessary to note that many terrorist organizations which are based in POK and Pakistan have been organizing terrorist activities in India with the full backing of the ISI. Some of such organizations are Lashkar-e-Toyyaba(LeT) Hizbul Mujahiddin(HM), Harkat-ul-Mujahiddin(HUM) Harkat Jihad-e-Islamia (HJI). The secret communication sent by the US Ambassador to Pakistan, Anne Paterson which was released by the Wikilike Website in the first week of December 2010 reveals : "Pakistans Army is covertly sponsoring fore Major Militant groups, including the Afghan Taliban and Mumbai attackers, Lashker-e-toiba and no amount of money (to Pakistan) will change its policy. Although Pakistan had received more than 10 billions dollars as American aid since 2001, there is no chance that Pakistan will view enhanced resistance: as sufficient compensation for abandaning support to these groups". It is to be noted that Russia also views Pakistan as Greatrest potential threat as disclosed by Wiki Liki website.

f. Nuclear Programme : The NDA caretaker Government headed by Prime Minister AB Vajpayee in 1998 May conducted a series of atomic tests and declared India as a nuclear weapon state. Pakistan, which had not signed the NPT(Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) and CTBT(Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) like India, vowed to conduct atomic tests if India undertakes and actually conducted the necessary tests, and declared Pakistan also as a nuclear Weapon state. The USA, a close ally of Pakistan, which proclaims as a champion of nuclear proliferation, who severely criticized the Vajpayee government did not prevent Pak from becoming a nuclear weapon state. The nuclear-weapon states and permanent members of the UN security council refused to recognize India and Pak as n-weapon states. It was believed that India was superior to Pakistan so far as nuclear weapons are concerned in the beginning. But now it is estimated that Pakistan has added new weapons to its nuclear arsenal and became superior to India so far as nuclear weapons are concerned. The US has been pressurizing both India and Pakistan to abandon their nuclear weapons and to make South Asia a nuclear Free zone. But the later are refusing to give up these n-weapons. The US has been expressing its anxiety now and then that there is a possibility of Pak n-weapons going into the hands of terrorists and asked Pakistan to hand over their custody to it, for which Pak has shown a blind eye and Pak rulers assured to the world that the n-weapons are secured. Both India and Pak agreed to notify to each other the secret places where this nuclear-weapons were secured and both have been complying the same. Pakistan authorities made it clear to India that they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against India if India wages a war against it. Thus India more or less lost its superiority in conventional warfare. It is an open secret that India won all the four wars in 1949, 1968, 1971 and Kargil war

in 1999. The other nuclear weapons states are pressuring India and Pak to sign NPT and CTBT, which both are resisting.

g. Composite Dialogue: So, the main issues between India and Pakistan are eight in number and they are: 1. Jammu and Kashmir 2) Siachen Glacier 3) Sir Creek 4) Tulbul Navigation project(or Wullar Barrage dispute) 5) Baghidar Hydro Electric project 6) Kishan Ganga Hydel project 7) Cross border Terrorism 8) Nuclear weapons. Previously both India and Pakistan never tried to identify and discuss all issues together. They used to discuss that issue which gains priority at that time. There were being discussed in different forums at different times. But no useful purpose was served. So, when I.K.Gujral was the prime minister during 1996-98, the composite dialogue process was initiated by identifying the above 8 bilateral issues and special experts groups were assigned the task of solving them. 3. Major initiatives to solve bilateral issues and to improve friendly relations Many a time talks were held and some times some agreements were concluded, but not a single problem was solved. Even SAARC(South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) could not proceed on the right diretion mainly due to Pak raising the Kashmir issue, contrary to the spirit of the regional grouping, that bilateral issues should not be raised. We shall recall some of the initiatives. i. Tashkant Agreement(1966) When 1965 Indo-Pak War was at its peak, Russian P.M Kosygin took initiative and facilitated talks between President Ayubkhan and P.M Lal Bahadur Sastry and an agreement was signed on 10/1/1966 in Tashkant, capital of Uzbekistan. Though it contained many useful and beneficial items to both sides, they were never followed nor implemented. (ii)Shimla Agreement(1972): This was concluded between P.Ms ZA.Bhutto and Indira Gandhi. In 1971 war waged by Pak against India, Pak lost the war. Pak was split and Bangladesh was formed. Ayub Khan’s rule ended and Z.A..Bhutto became P.M. Both sides agreed not to disturb the LOC(Line of Control), to solve all problems, including Kashmir through bilateral negotiations. India could argue that plebiscite to solve the Kashmir issue as per U.N. arrangement lost its relevance, Z.A.Bhutto was dethroned, sentenced to death as a traitor and was executed.

4. Various India – Pakistan Summits.(a)P.M.Rajiv Gandhi and P.M Benazir Bhutto summit in 1989: After three decades such a summit took place. They decided to sortout all outstanding issues. But Benazir Bhutto lost power as her Govt. was dismissed. b. P.M Nawaz Sheriff and Prime Minister Chandra Sekhar summit 1991 in Male, Maldives on the sidelines of SAARC Summit.

c. Gujral Doctrine was evolved during the United Front Government(1996-98) Some forward movement in Indo-Pak Relations when I.K.Gujral was External Affairs Minister and later P.M (Prime Minister) Track II Diplomacy was also introduced during Gujral’s regime. If Governments take initiative to solve or to bring the warring parties to the table for negotiations, it may be called Track-I Diplomacy. If non-officials, VIPs or Non-Governmental Organisations, take initiative to help any governments to come to the table for negotiations it is known as Track-II Diplomacy. - Composite Dialogue was introduced by J.K.Gujral to give a momentum to Indo-Pak relations. 8 bilateral issues were identified and special Expert Groups were assigned the task of solving them. 7 secretary level talks took place. - For the first time Kashmir issue was not raised in 1997 Polls in Pakisthan. d. P.M.Vajpayee-P.M Nawaj Shariff Summit in Lahore on 21/2/1999 : At the conclusion of the summit a joint statement was issued which was described as a mature declaration. This happened after atomic tests in May 1998 and international pressure, especially from the US was there to punish both India and Pak for conducting Nuclear tests. But all the good atmosphere created between India and Pakistan was wiped out due to Kargil war in May 1999. Military Coup in Pakistan: Powerful P.M Nawaz Shariff was removed and Musharaff became all powerful president. P.M Vajpayee vowed not to talk to Pak until democracy was restored. e. Agra Summit(2000 July) Giving a go-bye to his declared policy, P.M Vajpayee invited president Musharaff to Agra for summit in July 2000. It was reported that Talks progressed well till the end and agreements reached but not signed. No reason were assigned for failure of the summit. f. Islamabad Summit(Jan 2004) Many events happened between Agra and Islamabad summits i) 9/11 Terrorist attacks on the World Trade centre New York, ii)Attack on Indian parliament in Dec 2001. India blamed Pak for the second event. iii)U.S war on Afghanistan 2001. iv)War on Iraq in 2003 March. Some Indian leaders like Yaswant Sinha, former Foreign Minister expressed a desire to deal with Pak as USA was dealing with Iraq. -But the USA warned India and pressured it to talk to Pak. India offered peace Talks and Pakistan also responded. - Track-II diplomacy also was in action. - On 22/10/03 India offered a dozen peace proposals which are given below with Pak response. The following proposals were intended to help improve bilateral relations:

India’s proposal Response of Pakistan

1. To restore cricket and other sport activity Agreed. 2. To hold second round of negotiations to restore air travel between the two nations Agreed.

3. To have bilateral ties between the coast guards Agreed. 4. To arrange free medical treatment for 20 Pak offered to give same Pak children in medical institution in India facility for 20 Indian children. 5. To increase the strength of the staff in Pak agreed to increase High Commissioner’s office in Delhi the strength to 110 which and Islamabad was the level prior to 2001 Dec. 6. To start bus service between Srinagar Pak agreed in principle. and Muzaffarabad in POK To arrange check points by UN. 7. To restore Bus service between Delhi and Lahore Agreed. 8. To allow senior citizens of both countries to cross Wagha border by Walk Agreed. 9. Not to arrest the fishermen in designed areas in the Arabian sea Agreed. 10. To issue visa in other towns in India and Pak besides New Delhi and Islamabad Agreed in principle. 11.To start ferry service between Karachi To decide in bilateral and Mumbai Talks. 12. To start Bus or Rail service between To decide in the Sindh provice in Pak and Kakhrovar bilateral Talks. in Rajastan.

- P.M Vajpayee travelled to Islamabad to participate in SAARC Summit. During 4-6,Jan 2004. - Uncertainty prevailed about the holding of the summit. But, ultimately I-P Summit took place. Musharaff said no plebiscite business to solve Kashmir issue and he will not allow Pak’s territory to be used for any terrorist activity against India. Positive Joint statement was issued on 6/1/04 after 5 years. All Party Hurriyat Conference also helped to create proper atmosphere. Both agreed to pursue the composite dialogue. 5. Various visits and meets : a. President Musharaff and Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Singh met in Delhi in April 05 after their first Summit in New York in Sep 04. Joint statement was issued. Decided to have

more bus routes and to continue the Composite Dialogue. 3rd summit in Sep 05 in New york

and 4th in Havana in 06 on the sidelines of NAM summit P.Ms directed Foreign secretaries to expedite the composite dialogue on Terrorism. They have decided to create Joint Anti-Terrorism institutional mechanism to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations(this has became controversial in India as it will not be possible to combat terrorism jointly with Pakistan, as Pak itself is the sponsorer of it)Another summit was held in Delhi in April 07 on the sidelines of SAARC summit. b. visits to Pakistan to build confidence building measures by Indian Foreign Ministeers, Foreign secretaries and various eminent persons groups, journalists, lawyers, politicians such as

leaders of CPI,CPI(M) viz A.B.Bardhan, Sitaram Yechuri, BJP leader L.K.Advani, congress leaders and congress Chief Ministers of Punjab etc took place. Similarly P.M of Pak Shaukat Aziz also visited India.

c. 5 Rounds of Talks relating to composite dialogue took place and the 5th was held in Islamabad in Jan 07 to which Pranab Mukherjee the then External Affairs Minister attended. India-Pak Joint commission which was abandoned about 16 years back was restored in Oct 05

during the visit of External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh to Pak. The 11th round of Siachen talks

took place in April 07. Talks could not proceed on the question of authentication. The 4th round of Joint Working Group(Expert level)took place in Oct 07 in new Delhi. India rejected Pak

proposal for strategic balance(of forces)to maintain peace in Siachen. The 5th round of India-Pak expert level talks on nuclear and missile related CBMs (Confidence Building Measure) was held in New Delhi on 19/10/07. Both agreed to give advance information about missile tests. For the first time Pakistan accepted India’s dossier on terror in J&K. The second ATM(anti-Terror Mechanism)meeting was held in Delhi on 21/1/07 while the first was held in Islamabad in March 07.

d. The External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his counter-part Qureshi met in

Islamabad in May 08. They reviewed the progress of the 4th round of composite dialogue and agreed to hold further talks e. There was an attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul, in Afghanistan on 7/7/08. India accused Pak’s ISI for the attack. Foreign secretaries of both countries met in Delhi on 21,22 July 08 for

5th round of composite dialogue. But the attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul was raised. Indian Foreign Secretary Shiv Sanker Menon said that the composite dialogue process was under stress. f. Pakistan blamed India for low-level of water flow in the River Chenab and said that it is a violation of Indus River water treaty, which India denies. P.M Dr. Man Mohan Singh and president Zardari met in Sep 08 in New York on the sidelines of UN General Assembly. Zardari promised action against terror. Zardari who called J&K’s militants as terrorists, immediately backtracked after protests in Pak. g. India, which was taking lot of interest in Iran-Pak-India(I-P-I)gas pipeline, suddenly began to show its disinterest, evidently at the instance of the U.S. U.S put forth an alternative one viz TAPI(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India)gas pipeline. h. LOC Trade(Trade between Kashmiri people who are on either side of LOC) began on 21/10/08 after 60 years. This is the first official trade since 1947. The trade on the Poonch-Rawalkot side, which touched all-time high of Rs.8 crores on a single day, has since gone down

to 1.5 crores. But the traders’ Association on the either side of LOC accused India and Pak that they are not serious about the trade and in protest stopped LOC trade from 29/12/09. i. A big set back to India-Pak relations occurred with 26/11/2008 Mumbai attacks, in which Pak trained terrorists, especially LeT(Lashkar-e-Toyyaba) hard core participated. 10 LeT terrorists who came from Karachi on a ship, attacked Nariman House(where Israeli families reside), Chattrapathi Shivaji Terminal, Railway station, Cama hospital, Taj and Oberoi hotels. 9 terrorists were killed. One Kasab was held. 183 were killed including 20 security forces,141 Indians and 22 foreigners. Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil resigned owing responsibility for the event.

j. Before 26/11 Mumbai attacks JATM(Joint Anti-terror Mechanism)meeting took place on 24/10/08 in New Delhi in which India raised the ISI bombing of Indian Embassy in Kabul.-Home secretaries of both countries met in Islamabad on 25/11/08. Pak released 101 Indian prisoners. Home secretaries meeting was part of 8-topic composite dialogue. -Pak Foreign Minister Qureshi was in New Delhi for talks with his counter part at that time. He denied the existance of any terrorists training camps in Pak or POK. Indian government asked the Pak government and Foreign Minister to take action on the attackers in Mumbai attacks.- India asked Pak to return 20 fugatives, including LeT(Lashkar-e-Taiba) chief Hafiz Saeed. But president Zardari refused.-India has sent 52-page dossier through CIA to Pak. There was no positive response from Pak. Pak sought more information.-Tensions were on the rise between Indian and Pak. Tribal jirga(Tribal chief’s Assembly)said 60,000 tribal fighters will join the Pak army in case of war between India and Pak. -U.S special envoy for Afg-Pak Holbrook was in Delhi in Jan 09 and said Pak is the world’s most dangerous country. -Again Pak seeks more information about 26/11 and sent 30+2 Quarries and answers were sent by Government of India. -On 26/7/09 charge sheet(11,280 pages) was filed. 2202 witnessed were cited. Case was against 47 accused(9 dead)3 were arrested. Names of Headly and Rana are not there. k. Pak was insisting on starting composite dialogue. Indian External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna made it clear on 25/5/09 and subsequently that no talks with Pak until it takes action on 26/11 culprits. -P.M Dr. Man Mohan Singh met Pak President Zardari on 16/6/09 in Russia on the sidelines of SCO(Shanghai cooperation Organisation)meeting. This was the first meet after 26/11. P.M asked Pak president not to allow its soil to be used for terror attacks against India. Pak objected to this though not the President. Indian Prime Minister said there are 34 terrorist camps in Pak which Pak denies. -Foreign Ministers of India and Pak met in Italy on the sidelines of G-8 Meet in June 09. There was no positive outcome. -Both Foreign secretaries met in Egypt on 14/7/09 and I-P summit took place on 16/7/09 on the sidelines of NAM summit in Shalm-el-Sheik;Egypt. A joint statement was issued which became controversial in India. It was alleged that U.S was behind the Joint statement. Joint statement was not necessary as it is a sideline meeting. Balochistan issue was included for the first time in the joint statement. Pak alleges that India is behind the insurgency in Balochistan which India denies.

India agreed to talk to Pak and thus talks issue was delinked from 26/11 attacks. This deviated from Government Of India’s( position that no talks with Pak till it takes action against 26/11 culprits. -Pak alleged that India is running terror camps in Balochistan.

l. Pakistan announced a package of measures giving Administrative and Political autonomy to Gilgit-Baltistan(Northern areas which are part of J&K). India objected to the package as Pak is trying to give a provincial status to these Northern areas by providing an Assembly and a chief Minister. m. U.S Think Tank declared that Pak has been increasing its nuclear arsenal and it said that Pak, at present has 70-90 nuclear war heads which was up from 60, while that of India are from 60 to 80. This added to the already existing controversy that 1998 Pokhran tests were not fully successful and India shall not sign CTBT. (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). n. Indian Army chief Deepak Kapoor alleged in Sep 09 that the ceasefire violations by Pak are on the rise.. -Indian P.M Dr.Mam Moham Singh said in Sep 09 that India wants to normalize relations with Pak, but the only obstacle is that Pak should give up its old attitude of regarding its use of terror as an instrument of state policy. Both the Foreign Ministers met in New York on 27/9/09 on the sidelines of UN General Assembly session. But India made it clear that Pakistan helpful attitude in 26/11 case was an obstacle.(i)There is news that China is interested to have Gilgil. Added to this was the Joint Statement issued after the U.S-China summit meeting in Beijing (Obama-Hu Jintao meet)on 17/1/09, in which China was given a role in India-Pak Relations. Pak welcomed the statement. India which has been opposing any mediatory role for U.S, also opposed any mediatory role to China in I-P relations. o. Thus there is no forward movement in the composite dialogue process after 26/11 Mumbai attacks though United States was insisting for Indo-Pak talks. Though U.S tried its level best in its own interests to bring India and Pakistan closer, could not help. 6. Some Developments in 2010 : One can see a lot of bilateral activity between India and Pak, mainly at the instance of the U.S, as it wants Pakistan to intensify its struggle against terrorism and also to see that role of India is increased in its Afghan-Pak strategy. Yet one can say there is no much forward movement so for as Indo-Pak relations are concerned.

i. Bilateral Meetings between India and Pak a. Pak army chief Kayani said in Jan 2010 that Pakistan was aware of threat from India. Pak’s Deputy Chairman of planning commission in Jan 2010 accused that India was stealing water through Baglihar project and Pakistan was ready for war with India. Pak Foreign Minister said that there can be a nuclear war for water between India and Pak. Despite India’s objection, Pakistan was involving China in several projects in Pak Occupied Kashmir(POK) and also supply of arms to Pak form China. U.S said in Jan 2010 that Pak terrorist groups plan fresh attacks on

India. India had to retaliate to Pak rocket attacks from across the border. India also protests to Pakistan for its ceasefire violation on LOC. ISI chief Pasha alleged in Jan 2010 that India and Afghanistan are conspiring against Pakistan. In Feb 2010 Pak National Assembly expressed great concern over construction of dams by India in violation of Indus River Water Treaty. India’s External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna said on 13/2/10 that no thinking on talks with Pak. Indian diplomat Madhuri Gupta working in Islamabad was arrested on 27/4/10 for leaking sensitive information to Pak agencies. There was no progress in Pak’s attempts to punish the 26/11 culprits. Pakistan even refused to arrest Saeed, the leader of Lashkar-e-Toiba(LeT), who is the brain behind the attacks. (b) U.S special envoy Holbrook made it clear in Jan 2010 that India is vital for U.S success in Afghan-Pak strategy. Pak P.M Gilani said in Feb 2010 that Pak would pressurize India to talk to Pakistan. U.S vice president Biden also said in Feb 2010 that Pak is their biggest worry and not Afghanistan. The Wall Street Journal(U.S) disclosed on 5/4/10 about president Barack Obama’s secret push for India-Pak dialogue, aimed at winning Pak’s cooperation in Afghanistan. It also disclosed about secret directives by president Obama to his top aides to work hard to achieve

the objective. Thus several countries in SAARC 16th summit in Thimpu, pressurized India and Pak to sort out their disputes. c. The Foreign Secretaries of India and Pak Nirupama Rao and Salman Basheer met in New Delhi on 25/2/10. but talks failed to overcome trust deficit. Pak wanted to restart composite dialogue for which India was not ready as time was not ripe. India rejected the charge that it was supplying weapons to militants in Balochistan. –U.S and India asked Pak to shut 42 terror camps in Pakistan in March 2010. U.S said that India can quiz Headley, Pak-American, who U.S says is the brain behind 26/11 attacks. Till now india has been demanding Pakistan to take action on LET chief Hafiz saeed as he was the brain behind the 26/11 attacks. This American administration attempt also did not work to bring India and Pakistan for negotiations.

d. The Water commission of India and Pak met in Pakistan on 28-30 March 2010. but the talks failed and they decided to continue them in India. e. Prime Ministers of India and Pak met in Thimpu,Bhutan on 29/4/10 on the sidelines of

SAARC 16th summit. India has not accepted Pak’s demand to discuss composite dialogue issues as Pak has not done much on 26/11 attacks. But both P.Ms agreed that Foreign secretaries and Foreign Ministers shall discuss modalities for restoring trust. -Pakistan sent second note on Kishan Ganga project on 17/5/10 indicating its intention to setup a court of arbitration as provided under Dispute Settlement Mechanism under Indus River water Treaty. f. The permanent water commission of India and Pak met in New Delhi from 31/5/10 to 3/6/10. Pak officials wanted to visit Nimo Bazgo and CHUTAK Hydro power projects in Indus river basin in J&K. They could resolve Baghlihar Dam issue but not the above. In Kishan Ganga project dispute, a siting judge of the international court of Justice in Geneva is likely to be appointed as an arbitrator to take up the issue.

g. Foreign secretaries of India and Pak met in Islamabad on 24/6/10 and exchanged proposals on a wide range of issues including terror, J&K, and Humanitarian Affairs.

h. Goodwill Links between India & Pakistan i. Home Ministers of India and Pak met in Islamabad on 26/6/10 on the sidelines of SAARC Home Minister’s meet. Pak’s FIA(Federal Investigation Agency)is to collaborate with Indian CBI(Central Bureau of investigation) on the issue of fighting terror. j. Foreigner Minister of Pak Qureshi and India’s External Affairs Minister S.M.Krishna met in Islamabad on 15/7/2010. They were unable to find a meeting ground even after three rounds of discussions. Pak blamed India for the failure of the talks. It said that the biggest irritant was Union Home Secretary G.K.Pillai’s remark that the ISI has coordinated the Mumbai terror attacks on 26/11/2008. But analysts say that actually the Pak army sabotaged the talks. “Intervention by Pak army chief Kayani derailed the talks” said the sources. Pak army chief Kayani made it clear that India should be out of Afghanistan. -Pak army chief Kayani told Afghan President Karzai that he can broker peace deal with Taliban only if Indian consulates in Afghanistan are closed. “Pak military to keep India-centric policy said, Hamid Gul, former ISI chief. -Pakistan blamed India not only when there was no water in the rivers due to drought, but when there are floods which engulfed one fifth of Pak and was affected due to floods and when two crores of people were under distress. When India offered to donate 5 million dollars for flood relief, it was a topic of controversy, though ultimately Pak P.M announced that Pak has accepted India’s donation.

7. Pak’s China card : a. Pak has been a reliable partner of the U.S.A in South Asia. The U.S President Bush administration conferred on Pak a non-NATO-ally status. It is an admitted fact that the CIA and ISI gave military training for about one lakh Muslim youth from various countries to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan. After 9/11 attacks in New York, U.S declared all of them as terrorists and fight against them is the primary task of the international community including Pak, which was not digested by Pak rulers. Pak could not support the Afg-Pak policy of the U.S. Under those circumstances Pak began using China card directly and indirectly against the U.S and India as Pak has been against India which has been evincing interest in Afghanistan. This was made clear by Pak rulers on many occasions. b. On 28/8/10 the New York Times revealed two important new developments. In Gilgit-Baltistan there is a simmering rebellion against the Pakistan rule and the influx of an estimated 7000 to 11,000 soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army(PLA) in the area, which is closed to the world. Gilgit-Baltistan was also in the news last year when Pak government issued Gilgit-Baltistan Empowerment and self-Governance order. It will be relevant to know about the

Gilgit-Baltistan and also Northern areas in Pakistan. According to S.K.Sinha, former vice-chief of Army staff, Ex-Governer of Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan is legally a part of India. The British India rulers had a political agent at Gilgit and obtained a lease to administer the area. As Independence of India approached, the lease was terminated and Gilgit was reverted to Jammu and Kashmir. As per the article by Shubha Singh in Asian age Northern areas were formed from the amalgamation of Gilgut agency, Baltistan district of the Ladakh Wazarat and the states of Hunza and Nagas, with Gilgit town as the administrative Head quarters. The Northern areas lies south of Afghanistan and China’s Xinjiang province. On the West is the North West Frontier province(NWFP), with the state of J&K on the south and Azad Kashmir also on the South. Azad Kashmir as we, Indias understand is Pak-occupied Kashmir-POK. But the Kashmir territory in Pak’s occupation is not the narrow strip of land that is shown as Azad Kashmir, it includes the vast, sparsely populated Northern areas that comprised a third of the former princely state of Kashmir and the Trans-karakoram Tract which Pak ceded to China under a bilateral agreement in 1963.

Pak divided the Northern areas in to three parts. It detached Gilgut-Baltistan from Azad Kashmir because of its strategic importance. It separated state of Chitral and integrated it into the NWFP and later it separated from the Shaksgam valley and ceded to China. The Shias of Baltistan have close ethnic and cultural ties with the Shias of Kargil. Gilgit came under the Maharaja of Kashmir only after 1866 and so the Baltistan never considered themselves as Kashmiris. The original inhabitants of the region are Shias and Ismaile Khojas. But in 1975 Pak repealed the old Kashmiri “state subject” Regulation that prevented outsiders from purchasing land and settling down in the state. The government encouraged the Pathan Sunnis from the Federally Administered Tribal Agency(FTAA) region to settle down here in this region and the army facilitated settlement by ex-servicemen. This resulted in the reduction of local Shias from 80 percent in 1947 to about 53 percent. There used to be clashes between Shias and Sunnis on many occasions, which were curbed by the authorities. The constitution of Pak made no mention of Northern Areas though it referd to Azad Kashmir as a disputed territory which meant that the people had no constitutional or legal rights under Pak constitition and they have also no political representation. But it was being ruled by Islamabad as a department under the Federal Ministry of Kashmir and northern affairs, with the help of the Pak army. c. ut the Pak government’s Gilgit-baltistan Empowerment and Self-Governance order, restored the old name of the region, Gilgit-Baltistan, and devolved greater administrative and political powers to the region. This region will now have a local administration, headed by a chief Minister and a council of ministers and a partly-elected and partly-nominated body.

d. The New York Times also says that China wants a grip n the strategic area to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan and for this purpose China is building high speed rail and road link. Chinese soldiers are engaged to work on various projects, including 22 tunnels in secret location, where even Pakistanies are banned. The paper also says that the tunnels are necessary for a projected gas pipeline from Iran to China that would cross the Karakoram through Gilgit and also to be used for missiles storage sites. The paper further says that the Chinese are building a big residential complex clearly designed for a long term

presence. The New York Times disclosed that there were widespread brutally suppressed local movements for democratic rights and for regional autonomy in both Gilgit and Baltistan, where Sunni(Jihadi Groups) allied with Pak army has systematically terrorized the local Shia Muslims. But Pak denied the New York Times report. But certainly it is matter of concern for India. India made it clear that it will take all necessary steps in this regard. China told Indian officials that its army is in Gilgit-Baltstan area for flood relief and rehabilitation work. It also withdrew its observation that Gilgit-Baltistan region is in Northern areas, which is part of Pakistan. e. China’s activity in this region is an the increase. The Karakoram high way that connects China and Pak is to be widened to 30 feet to provide an all weather access route to its Chinese-built Gwadar sea port on the Balochistan coast at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. China is investing billions of dollars in various projects in this region. It plans to construct a hydro-electric power project at Bunji, to build the Bhasha dam and also irrigation works and to provide telecommunication facilities in this remote area. China is also constructing port at Sost near the border with Xinjiang province. Gilgit was the route through which trading goods from central Asia reached the Kashmir valley. All this is happening in spite of protests from India. f. Civil Societies in both countries played a significant role in getting release of Indians prisoners in Pak and vice versa. On 9/9/10 India acknowledged Pak’s gesture in releasing 442 Indian fisherman and announced the release of 31 Pak prisoners from Indian jails. g. U.S President Barak Obama visited India in the first week of November 2010. Before coming to India, President Obama had extensive talks with Pakistan President Zardari over telephone. Before that U.S donated 2 Billion U.S Dollars to Pakistan towards military help to fight terror India protested as Pakistan has been in the habit of using it against India. During in visit to India President Obama made a business of Rs 47,000 cores. After intensive talks with Indian Prime Minster Dr. Man Mohan Singh and other top brass. President Obama addressed joint session of Parliament. He expressed verbal support to India’s efforts to secure permanent member ship in the UN Security Council with certain conditions. But there was resentment in Pakistan and not only the Pakistan Cabinet but even the National Assembly passed a resolve it an repressing that U.S has betrayed Pakistan. Though white house declared that support to India is not at the expense of Pakistan not only that Pakistan President Zardari rushed to China to Mobilise support against India. President Zardari said that going to China, he feels that he is going to his own home.

Sri Lanka

1. a. Introducing Sri Lanka : Sri Lanka is situated in the Indian Ocean to the South of India. Its area is 66000sq kms with a population of 18.5 million. Ethnic Composition: Simhala - 74%, Tamilians 12.6%, (out of them 5.5% live in hilly tea gardens and the rest are in Northern and Eastern provinces), Moors 7% (Arab heritage Sunnis). Religious Composition: Buddhists 70%, Hindus 15.5%, Christians 7.5%, Muslims 7%, 2. Political Parties :1. United National Party (UNP), 2. Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), 3. Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP) of Simhala people. They call themselves as Maoists. 4. Buddhists Jaathika Hella Urumaya (JHU), 5. All Ceylon Tamil Congress (ACTC), 6. Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), 7. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), 8.Tamil Eelam Liberation Front (TELF), 9.Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This is most powerful Tamil Group. It was established in 1963 by V Prabhakaran which has taken up arms to achieve its objective of a separate country or state Eelam to Tamils. Its headquarters are in London and Paris. It owns Army, Navy, war planes and helicopters. It owns international trade. It runs a news paper also. Though LTTE was in control of Jafna, Eastern and Northern provinces by 2007 July, afterwards it was in control of North Province only. But now LTTE is not there. The main cities in the Northern and Eastern Provinces are Batticalova, Trincomole, Killinochchi, and Mallathive. Chief Commander of the LTTE Col. Karuna left Prabhakaran and started separate group which weakened the LTTE. LTTE was recognized as a sole representative of Tamilians.

3. The Ethnic Tamil Issue : This is the main issue faced by Sri Lanka. Most of the Tamilians (about 27lacs) living in North and East Provinces have no citizenship and are second class citizens. The Northern Province is very near to Tamilnadu. LTTE has been fighting for Eelam. 4. The following is the chronology of some events. 1948 - Ceylon now Srilanka became an independent country.

1957 - An Agreement between Prime Minister Bandaranayke of SLFP (Srilanka Freedom Party)and Tamil leader Selvarajan, giving some limited rights to Tamils which was opposed by UNP, (United National Party) the then opposition party. So it was not implemeted. 1960 - Similar agreement between Prime Minister Dudley Sena Nayake of UNP and Selvarajan. This agreement was opposed by the then opposition Sri Lanka Freedom Party. So that agreement was also not implemented.

1963 - LTTE was established by V Prabhakaran and he started arms struggle. 1964 - A similar Agreement between Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Sastry and Sri Lankan President Sirimao Bandarunayake which gave Indian citizenship to some and Ceylon Citizenship to some citizens. But it could not solve the problem. 1974 - A similar Agreement between Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Prime Minister Sirimao Bandarunayake. The main problem was not solved. 1978 - UNP leader Jayavardhane who became the President in 1977 adopted Unitary System of Government viz. Powerful President, Premadasa was appointed as Prime Minister. President Jayavardhane is rule continued till 1991. 1983 - Civil War (Eelam war no:1)was started between Sri Lanka Army and LTTE, after LTTE ambushed army petrol in Jafna, killing 13 soldiers. 1987 - Indo-Sri Lankan Peace Agreement between President Jayavardhane and Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and the same was not implemented. In 1990 June Eelam War II began after LTTE launched surprise attacks on Police establishments in North and Eastern Provinces. 1991 - Premadasa of United Nations Party became President. He was killed by LTTE in 1993 and Chandrika Kumarathunga of SLFP became the Prime Minister. 1994 - Chandrika Kumarathunga became the President and her mother Sirimao Bandarunayaka became Prime Minister. In 1995 April Eelam War III was started and it continued up to 2000. 1999- UNP leader Vikrama Singhe became Prime Minister. Power struggle between President

Chandrika and Prime Minister Vikrama Singhe. Prime Minister lifted ban on LTTE on 23rd Feb., 2002. The cease-fire agreement was entered into between Vikram Singhe Government and LTTE. SriLanka International Monitoring MISSLON (SLMM) was established. LTTE leader V Prabhakaran held his press conference publicly after 12 years.

2003 October 31st - Prime Minister Vikrama Singhe of UNP and LTTE negotiated peace deal. President Chandrika stripped Prime Minister off Defence Portfolio. So there was breakdown in negotiations. 2004 April - UNP was defeated in Parliamentary polls. Rajapakse of SLFP was appointed as Prime Minister.

2005 August 12th - Foreign Minister Laxman was killed by LTTE. President Chandrika offered negotiations with LTTE. LTTE refused but expressed willingness to have negotiations after presidential elections. 2005 November - In the Presidential Election Sri Lanka Freedom Party leader Rajapakse won and became President. LTTE asked the President to solve the Tamil problem within one year, after which the armed struggle will be intensified. Accordingly the negotiations were started between the Government and LTTE.

2006 April - Attempt on the life of the Chief of Army Sarath Fonseka by LTTE. Sri Lanka army started attacking the LTTE bases. LTTE withdrew from negotiations.

2006 May 27th - Norway tried to restart the negotiations. India offered to join the talks along with USA and European Union. Sri Lanka Government and LTTE were unwilling to join. The fight between Government forces and LTTE continued even though the cease-fire agreement was there.

2006 August 20th - India wanted both the Government and LTTE to stop fighting and negotiate basing on the devolution of powers between Centre and the Provinces. 2007 April - Sri Lanka monitoring mission decided to suspend rulings on cease fire violations as there were more than 4000 violations.

2008 January 14th - Sri Lanka Government withdrew from cease fire agreement and on 10-01-2008 USA declared LTTE as one of the most dangerous and deadly extremists in the world, which has inspired world wide net works including the Al Quaida. 5. Some attempts to solve the problem of ethnic Tamils :

a. Indo-Sri Lanka peace agreement (1987 July 29th) Jayawardhane-Rajiv Gandhi Agreement with the approval of the LTTE: It was a significant turning point in Sri Lanka –India Relations. India involved itself to attend to this problem between 1983-1990. The accord provided for devolution of powers to the States. North and Eastern Provinces were merged.

13th Amendment to the Constitution of 1978 was adopted. Provincial Councils were setup throughout Sri Lanka. Powers were devolved on provinces. Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) went to Sri Lanka to implement the Accord. Prime Minister Premadasa colluded with LTTE and they began attacking IPKF. India lost 1255 soldiers on Sri Lanka soil. More than 64000 people lost their lives. President Jayawardhane could not do anything. That was the influence of the Buddhist lobby. IPKF returned home. Accord came to an end.

b. President Chandirka’s initiative(1994): Before coming to power Chandrika Kumara Thunga and her husband, cine artist, Vijayakumar Thunga were treating LTTE as a patriotic organization and visited them when the fight was going on. Chandrika Kumara Thunga promised to restore the Parliamentary Democracy replacing the Unitary System of Government. Her husband was killed by JVP (Jathiya Vimukthi Perumana). During the 1994 Presidential Elections, UNP candidate Dissa Senanayake was killed by LTTE. But the President Chandrika continued negotiations. After four rounds of talks LTTE withdrew from the talks without assigning any reason. Yet the President offered devolution of powers to the Provinces. President Chandrika continued attacks on the LTTE and was able to capture Jaffna Town from the LTTE which was with LTTE since 1990. President Chandrika entered into a historic agreement with the opposition UNP (United National Party) to the effect that further negotiations only after consultations with the UNP. United Kingdom helped the negotiations. Chandrika won the 1999 Presidential Elections on the plea that she will wage a war against the LTTE.

c. Prime Minister Vikram Singhe’s (UNP) Initiative 2001: Now there are two power centres in Sri Lanka. Viz. The President and the Prime Minister. But Prime Minister entered in to a cease-fire agreement with LTTE in February 2003. Norway mediated the talks. Four rounds of talks took place. President Chandrika objected to the presence of CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) representative on the PM’s side in the negotiations. Sri Lanka Army attacked LTTE boat and killed 11 LTTE people. LTTE withdrew from the negotiations. Differences between President and Prime Minister resulted in the evaporation of the peace process. d. President Mahinda Rajpakse’s initiative: Ratnasiri Vikaram Nayake (SLFP) became Prime Minister. LTTE was positive for negotiations with the Government. but wanted the talks to be completed with in one year. Norway mediated. LTTE tried to kill Army Chief. Sri Lanka Army started attacking the bases of LTTE. SLMM ( Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission) withdrew from 1-9-2006 for security reasons. European Union banned the LTTE in May 2006. Heavy causalities during the fight between the Sri Lankan Army and LTTE. Sri Lanka Government withdrew from the Ceasefire Agreement on 4-1-2008 The Government was determined to continue the war and weaken the LTTE, and if possible to destroy it.

6. Eelam War IV: LTTE was crushed - Army won the War : a. A Comparison of Sri Lanka army and LTTE fighting power: ITEM SRILANKA LTTE Army 118000 11000 ( Vanni 5000, Mallathivu 3000,Jaffna 1800,Sea Tigers 1500) Artillery 187 6 Armored personnel Carriers 2000 Not Known Battle Tanks 65 Not Known Air Force 19300 Not Known Air Crafts 24 3 Navy 20600 1500 Eelam War IV: i. In April 2006 Sri Lanka Army Chief Sarath Fonseka survived the assassination attempt by LTTE woman suicide bomber. Sri Lanka Army started attacking the LTTE bases. Ealam War IV began in August 2006. Defence Secretary Gothaboya Rajapakse, brother of President Mahinda Rajpakse survived the assassination attempt by LTTE in December 2006. LTTE lost Eastern Province by the end of 2007. LTTE’s Political Wing Head and second in Command Thamulu Selvan was killed in November 2007. In 2009 January Sri Lanka Army captured the LTTE defacto Capital Killinocchi. Army captured LTTE’s last major strong hold of Mullathivu in January 2009. In February 2009 Government declared it a No-Fly-Over Zone (NFZ) and called on civilians to move into safety places from there. LTTE Supremo V Prabhakaran was killed on 19-5-2009. President Mahinda RajaPakse declared on 16-5-2009 that he won the war completely. On 17-5-2009 LTTE declared that it lost

the war. On 18-5-2009 Army declared that seven top leaders including Prabhakaran’s son Charles Anthony were killed. Thus Jaffna Peninsula, North and East Provinces, mainly Tamil areas which were used to be under the LTTE’s control, came under the full control of the Sri Lankan Government.

ii. Outcome of the War : The 32 year - war claimed over 70000 lives. 2008-09 is the bloodiest year of the Civil War. 11144 people were killed in about 1200 major incidents. The dead included 414 civilians, 1314 security forces, 9426 LTTE militants. 5 lac Tamilians have become internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). As per UN Report 1.35 lac people are in refugee camps. There are allegations and accusations of war crimes and atrocities against civilians (mostly Tamilians) in the fighting during April-May 2009. The European Union Foreign Minister and many International Organisations have called for enquiry into the war crimes and the atrocities. Government of India announces a donation of Rupees 500 crores for the rehabilitation of Tamils in Sri Lanka. Tamilnadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi thanked Government of India for this good gesture.

7. Future of the ethnic Tamil issue : a. The victory in the war gave President Rajpakse a great opportunity to solve the Tamil ethnic problem. His victory speech in Parliament was very positive. He said that the war was against the LTTE and not against the Tamilians. He stressed that he would ensure equal rights for all and would protect the Tamilians. The military victory needs convertion into political reconciliation and consolidation of national unity and solidarity. Policies such as the Simhala – only Act of 1956, the ban of Tamil language, the University Admission Policies of 1971 and burning of Jaffna Library (of Tamils) in 1983, wounded the pride and dignity of Tamils and they should be set right. Of course economy has been devastated by decades of civil war. President Rajpakse said that he would recruit one lac people to the army to prevent the resurgence of LTTE or any other groups. Thus the Army will be increased to three lacs. On 16-06-2009 the surviving leaders of LTTE announced that they were REGROUPING the rebel movement and forming a transitional Government.

b. It is necessary to set up an independent Judicial Commission to inquire into to the allegations of war crimes

c. India has been suggesting to the Sri Lanka Government to implement the 13th amendment to 1987 Constitution which was based on Indo-Sri Lanka Accord, devolving powers

to the Provinces. As per the 13th Amendment Nine provinces with Federal, Provincial and Concurrent powers like Indian Constitution were established, but not fully implemented. No Provincial Government was established in Northern Province. In Eastern Province the Chief Minister belongs to Colonel Karuna Group. In the rest of 7 Provinces Simhala Chief Ministers

were there. Sincere implementation will help solving the ethnic problem but the Buddhist lobby should not put obstacles in the way. 8. All Parties Representatives Conference (APRC) : President Mahinda Rajpakse arranged All Parties Conference and appointed 12 members to the APRC to suggest recommendations to solve the Tamil ethnic problem, form of Government and to study the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Agreement also. Rajpakse took full control of Sri Lanka Freedom Party from Chandrika

Kumarathunga. The All Party Representatives Conference submitted an interim report on 23rd January 2008 to President Rajpakse. The main opposition UNP and JVP quit the panel in the middle. The Interim Report recommended the following.

1. Full and faithful implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, holding of Provincial Council elections in the East and establishment of an Interim Provincial Council in the

North as the elections are not possible now. The 13th Amendment was based on the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord which was passed during the Jayavardhane Government. 2. President should initiate measures for a consensus on the devolution of powers to the Provinces. The Indian Government welcomed the contents of the Report. The Committee will prepare a set of proposals which would be the basis for the solution to the National Ethnic Tamil problem. 9. Some developments at the end of Eelam War IV : a. President Mahinda Rajapakse, with a view to take advantage of his credibility gained by winning war against the LTTE, embarked upon organizing presidential and Parliamentary polls, he has decided to hold the Presidential Polls even before the expiry his present term.

Accordingly it was announced that Presidential Elections will be held on 26th January 2010. Army chief general Sarath Fonseka who led the Army in the war against LTTE was named Sri Lanka Military Chief in recognition of his services by the President Rajpakse. But Sarath Fonseka contested the Presidential polls as a candidate of combined opposition. In the elections Mahinda Rajpakse got 57.8% while Fonseka got 40.15% of the votes polled and the former was declared elected. Even though President Rajpakse was elected as President for the second term on 26-01-2010, he was sworn in on 19-11-2010 as he was elected for the first term on 19-11-2005 and that term ended 19-11-2010.

b. After assuming office for the second term after re-election, President Rajpakse organized major purge in the Army. Not only that he ordered for the arrest of Ponseka on the allegation that he committed military offences at the time of war, but also he was arrested on 8-2-2010 and declared that he will be court-martialed. c. President Rajpakse dissolved the Parliament and elections for the new Parliament were held on 8-4-2010. The 42 Parties who supported Fonseka in the Presidential polls parted ways.

The main opposition UNP contested the polls on its own. The ruling UPFA got 144 seats out of total 225. Only a few seats are required for 2/3rds majority. For the first time the ruling UPFA on its own got elected in all the 22 election districts including the North and East. President Rajpakse’s brother Chamal Rajpakse was elected speaker of the Parliament. Karuna Amman, a former top leader of the LTTE who joined the President’s political force became a Minister. d. The credit also goes to President Rajpakse for holding local polls in Jaffna and Vavuniya, once LTTE strong holds. The ruling UPFA won majority seats in both the Districts. e. The Truth Commission consisting of 8 persons to probe events from February 2002 to the Military victory against the LTTE in May 2009, met for the first time under the Chairmanship of President Rajpakse on 20-6-2010. f. But the UPFA Government vehemently opposed the proposal of the UN Secretary General Ban-Ki-Moon to appoint a committee to advise him on the human rights violations during the last stage of the war against the LTTE. Even one Minister in Rajpakses’s Government went on fast unto death on 8-7-2010 out side the UN office in Colombo against the UN Panel. But subsequently at the instance of President Rajpakse he withdrew the fast. But the UN proposal got the support of the US and other Western Powers. The Sri Lanka Government refused entry to the Human Rights Panel. Sri Lanka could get the support of China and Russia to oppose the Panel. Prime Minister of Sri Lanka criticized the Western Powers of interfering in the internal affairs of his country.

g. Local polls were held in Jaffna and Vavuniya on 3-8-2009 and the turnout was 35%. The ruling UPFA won majority of seats in both the regions. h. The Rajpakse Government arrested Sarath Fonseka Ex-Army Chief on 2-2-2010 and he was court-martialed for the military offences committed by him when he was in service. Subsequently the court martial found him guilty on 13-8-2010 and recommended for a dishonourable discharge from the army ranks. President accepted the recommendations and Fonseka was divested of all the honours conferred on him Subsequently Fonseka was convicted and was sent to jail like an ordinary citizen. i. President Rajpakse appointed a committee to study the root cause for the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka in July 2010. It is known as “Panel on Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission”. The pro-LTTE party viz. Tamil National Alliance (TNA) gave up its demand for Tamil Eelam and demanded only for self determination for Tamils. j. Sri Lanka cabinet met in Killinochi in Northern Sri Lanka which is Tamil dominated area on 15-7-2010 and approved to take a loan of $150 million from the Asian Development Bank for the construction of damaged power and water infrastructure in North and Eastern Provinces of Sri Lanka.

k. Mean while two Members of Parliament from the opposition joined the ruling alliance and its strength was increased to 146. It is only a short of 5 seats for 2/3rds majority in the

Parliament. The Sri Lankan cabinet took a major decision lifting the ban on the 3rd term for the President of Sri Lanka, evidently with a view to give President Rajpakse to stand for the

Presidential p2ost for the third term. The 1978 constitution banned the 3rd term for the Sri Lanka President. President Rajpakse sought the opinion of the Supreme Court on this point. The Supreme Court gave its opinion on 7-7-2010 favouring the Constitutional changes lifting the ban for the third term. The Supreme Court also said that there is no need to go for referendum on Constitutional changes and said it is enough if it is approved by the Parliament with 2/3rds majority. Five members of the Parliament from the opposition UNP expressed their support to the proposal of the Government. The opposition UNP declared that it will boycott the debate and the voting on the Amendment to the Constitution scheduled for 8-9-2010. The Sri Lankan Parliament on 8-9-2010 approved the controversial amendments to the 1978 Constitution with the required 2/3rds majority. In the House of 225 members 161 voted for and 17 against. Cross voting by several members of the main opposition UNP facilitated the passing of the Bill. The UNP boycotted the Parliament and staged a demonstration outside the Parliament against the Bill. The amendment paved the way for President Rajpakse to run for the Office of the President for the third term when the elections will be held in November 2016. By virtue of the Amendments the President has to attend the Parliament at least once in three months. While the ruling combined projected the Amendments as a measure to bring the President into the Parliamentary process, the opposition including the former Army Chief Fonseka and the civil society contend that it could lead to dictatorship.

l. The Government announced on 29-7-2010 that 85% of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDP’s) were settled. It said 217393 IDPs were settled within one year at the rate of 700 persons per day and only 35333 are to be settled. m. The Sri Lank Intelligence Agencies, with the help of INTERPOL, have unearthed vital information on the International network of the LTTE. The Defence Ministry said that unless LTTE’s terror network abroad was broken, there could be no end to terrorist activities in the country. Meanwhile the US “Congressionally-Mandated Country reports on terrorism for the year 2009” disclosed that one year after Sri Lanka won the war against LTTE, the US still suspects that the international financial support-net work of the Tamil Tigers remained largely intact. The LTTEs international net-work continued to collect contributions from Tamil Diaspora in Northern America, Europe and Australia. In view of this the Prime Minister of Sri Lanka warned of the possibility of LTTE regrouping in Northern and Eastern Provinces and emergency was extended in Sri Lanka. n. The Chinese Vice Premier visited Sri Lanka in 2009, before the Sri Lanka President planned his visit to India and committed to Sri Lanka’s development and the two countries

entered into bilateral agreements which cover development of highways, IT Sector and development of Hambartola port. Accordingly the phase I of the port was completed and opened on 15-8-2010 by President Rajpakse which was constructed at a cost of 1.5 billion dollars. This is one of the four ports that China offered to help construction of them. There was news that this port will be used by China as its Military Base. This naturally created ripples between Sri Lanka and India. But Sri Lanka made it clear there is no Chinese Military Base in Hambartola port. o. SriLankan Parliament on 10-11-2010 passed legislation to legalise betting and gambling to attract foreign tourists. 10. VIPs Killed by LTTE : a. Sri Lankan Prime Minister Premadasa in May 1993 b. Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991. c. Dissa Sena Nayake, UNP candidate in 1994 Presidential Elections. d. Sri Lankan foreign minister Lakshman Kadirigamar in August 2005. e. Three Members of Parliament were also killed. 11. LTTE and Tamilnadu politics : LTTE was a banned organization in India. So the operations of LTTE are not based in Tamilnadu. 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord was entered into when Dr. M.Karunanidhi was the Chief Minister of Tamilnadu. LTTE’s name will be mentioned in Tamilnadu almost everyday. AIADMK leader Jayalalitha was benefited atleast twice. In 1991 she succeeded in getting dismissal of the DMK Government by claiming that it was supporting the activities of LTTE. After assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the Tigers she swept to power following a sympathy wave for the Congress-AIADMK alliance. PMK and VCK (Vidathalai Chiruthigal Katchi) were in the ruling alliance with DMK. They were supporters of LTTE. Jayalalitha demanded the arrest of the two leaders on the ground that they were supporting the LTTE. DMK did not do it as the Indian Supreme Court held verbal support to a banned organization is not an offence.

II. INDO-SRI LANKA RELATIONS 1. During the Days of Young Independent Countries a. Republic of India is the only neighbor to the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka separated by the Palk Strait. Two major factors that influenced the bilateral ties could be noted as security and shared ethnicity of Tamils living mostly in Southern India mainly in Tamilnadu and in the Northern and Southern Sri Lanka. After Britain which ruled India and Sri Lanka (the then Ceylon) for centuries, withdrew its military presence from the Indian Ocean in 1950s, both the Nations began to share regional security interests and came close to each other. Then both the countries advocated non-aligned policies, cooperated to minimize the western influence in

the Indian Ocean, though they could not prevent Britain from handing over the Diego Garcia islands to the United States of America. b. Both India and Sri Lanka, who are members of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), South Asia Economic Union, South Asia Cooperative Environment Programme and BIMSTEC (Bangladesh-India-Myanmar-Sri Lanka Economic Cooperation) cooperated to improve their bilateral ties. c. There was a setback in the friendly relations when Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) sent as per the agreement entered into between two nations by President Jayardhane and Prime MinisterRajiv Gandhi was attacked by the LTTE in collusion with the then Prime Minister Premadasa of Sri Lanka. After the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by LTTE in 1991, it was banned, and one can see improvement in bilateral relations. d. A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed by two countries which came in to effect in 2000 and the bilateral trade started ascending. One can see an increase of 120% of trade by 2004 and it was further increased and it was $2.6Billion by 2006. 2. Post Eelam War IV : a. The major problems in the Post-Eelam War IV which was ended in May 2009 are: To rehabilitate Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) mainly Sri Lanka Tamils which were in lacs and to solve the ethnic Tamil issue. Naturally there was anxiety in Tamilnadu about the fate of Tamils in Sri Lanka in the post-war situation, though not expressed openly due to the ban on LTTE. Even before the end of Eelam war IV, Pranab Mukherji, the then External Affairs Minister visited Colombo in January 2009 and got an assurance from President Mahinda Rajpakse that

his Government was committed to the 18th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution which was part of 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Peace Accord. Sri Lanka cancelled arms deals with China and Pakistan worth $200 million. b. Kachchativu Festival was organized in February 2010 and 3500 people mainly fisherman from India participated. India participated in this festival after a gap of 27 years. There is a dispute regarding Kachchativu Islet raised by Tamilnadu. c. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupamarao visited Colombo in March 2010. She had discussions on long range of issues with the Sri Lanakan Government including President Rajpakse. There was news that RAW (Research and Analysis Wing- external intelligence agency

of India) tried for the defeat of President Rajpakse in the Presidential polls on 26th January 2010. Nirupamarao made it clear to Rajpakse that it was false news. Nirupamarao promised India’s help for rehabilitation of displaced Tamils. India has decided to setup a consulate in Jaffna town in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has consulates in Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata.

d. As part of its commitment to help Sri Lanka in providing relief and resettlement of nearly 3 lacs internally displaced Tamils, India handed over galvanized sheets worth $2.75 million. e. India and Sri Lanka signed Rs 67.4 Billion credit line to fund the second phase of Railway Line from Colombo to Martan. f. Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and Sri Lanka President Rajpakse met in April

2010 in Thimpu in Bhutan on the sidelines of the 16th SAARC Summit. g. Foreign Ministers of both the countries met in Tehran in May 2010. Both expressed to strengthen ties in Defense, Space, Energy and Security. Both decided to review the Joint Commission Mechanism which will be headed by foreign ministers. India agreed to construct 56000 houses for Tamil displaced persons in Sri Lanka and also agreed to help Railway infrastructure and improvement of Air Port and Sea Port. h. President Rajpakse visited India in June 2010 and had extensive discussions with Prime Minister Dr. Man Mohan Singh and other dignitaries. Seven agreements for construction of Madu-Talaiman Railway Line, Women’s Trade Facilities Centre, and Mutual Legal Assistance in criminal matters and agreement on transfer of sentenced prisoners were signed. i. First Annual Defense Dialogue between Sri Lanka and India took place in New Delhi in the last week of August 2010. India was represented by National Security Advisor Shiva Sankar Menon, Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and Defense Secretary Pradeep Kumar and Sri Lanka was represented by Defense Secretary Gotabhay Rajpakse, Secretary to President Lalith Weerathunga and Senior Advisor to President Basil Rajpakse. It was decided to normalize defense ties between the two Nations as ethnic Tamil conflict in Sri Lanka was ended. All the issues including the problems faced by Indian fishermen, India’s concern regarding the expansion of Hambantota Port undertaken by China, the rehabilitation of internally displaced Tamils were discussed. Indian fishermen were facing lot of problems at the hands of Sri Lanka Navy. 1456 Indian fishermen in 2008, 127 in 2009 and 26 in 2010 were apprehended by Sri Lankan Navy. All parties in India raised this issue in Parliament. It was agreed between the two sides to open channels of communication between fishermen from both countries to understand issues that sparked violence in high seas. Sri Lankan foreign Minister dismissed India’s concern and said that Chinese-built deep sea port at Hambantota was part of Beijing policy to expand its strategic foot print in the Indian Ocean. India decided to open the Consulate in Jaffna, and Hambantota while Sri Lanka opens its fourth Consulate in India. President Mahinda Rajapaksa who opened the Hambantota Port on 18-11-2010 said that his country would like to be a part of the radically progressing Asia led by China and India. He also said that his Government will make SriLanka the “Wonder of Asia” by making it a five-gold hub-naval, aviation, commercial, energy and knowledge. President Raja Paksa in the last week of

November 2010 met the Tamil Parties' Forum, an umbrella organisation of Tamil Parties outside the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), to discuss aspects of a post-conflict reconciliation. The told the President that political soulution should be within the Framework of a United Srilanka. It was decided to appoint a committee comprising the members of T.P.F. and others to revue the progress of the settlement of the I.D.Ps. (Internally Displaced persons) and to have regular inter action with the Government on their needs.

j. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao paid four day visit to Sri Lanka in August-September 2010. She met the Chief Minister along with other leaders in Tamilnadu and discussed the ethnic Tamil issue before going to Colombo. In Sri Lanka Nirupama Rao visited Jaffna, Vavunia, and Killinochchi, met displaced Tamils and inspected resettlement process. She is the first Foreign Secretary to visit these Tamil areas in nearly three decades. She met Sri Lankan President and other officials. 90% of the internally displaced persons were settled. It may be recalled that India donated Rs.500 crores aid to the relief and rehabilitation of displaced persons and committed to build 50000 houses for the displaced in North and East Provinces. k. Indian Army Chief V K Singh visited Colombo in September 2010. He offered floral tributes at the memorial of the soldiers and officers of IPKF who sacrificed their lives in fighting the LTTE during 1987-89. As many as 1065 officers and soldiers lost their lives during the fight. It is the first Indian Army Chief to pay homage at the memorial since its erection in 2008. l. India agreed to modernize Kankesanthurai Sea Port and Palaly Air Port and to build rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka and signed the agreements for the projects. Further steps will be taken in due course. m. SriLankan President Mahinda Rajapakse was the chief guest at the concluding session of prestigious Common Wealth Games in New Delhi on 14-10-2010. While in Delhi President met the top Government official including Minister SM Krishna who expressed it is time to act decisively to win over Tamils in Srilanka. President Rajapaksha told him that his Government wants to talk to broader spectrum of Stakeholders relating to ethilic Tamil issue. n. On 23-10-2010, there was an attact on the Public Library, which belongs to Tamils there, which naturally hurt to sentiment of the Tamil People. But the SriLankan Presidential Secretariat came out with a statement on 1-11-2010 denying army involvement of the state. o. India's External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna was on a four- day visit to Sri Lanka in the last week of November 2010. He met President Raja paksa co-chaired a Joint India-Sri Lanka Joint Commision meeting. He hoped for the creation of a Structured Dialogue Mechanism to workout a Political Solution to Ethnic Tamil conflict. He opened the consulates in Jaffna and Hamban Tata. The ferry service between Colombo and Rameswaram will be resumed soon. An agreement for $416 millian dollors credit for Railway Line in Sri Lanka was signed.

3. KACHCHATIVU ISLET DISPUTE a. Introducing Kachchativu Islet: Kachchtivu is a barren tiny islet (285 acres in area) in the PalkBay of Rameswaram, a part of Ramanathapuram District, part of Raja of Ramnadu Zamindari, bearing survey no. 1250. When the Zamindari system was abolished in 1948 the island became part of Madras Presidency, now Tamilnadu. b. Seeni Kuppan Padayachi, a fisherman from Ramanathapuram had built St. Antony’s church around 1900 in this uninhabited islet, with marine rich surroundings. But fishermen from India and Sri Lanka used to dry their nets, rest and pray there. But the Church comes under the jurisdiction the Catholic Diocase of Jaffna (Sri Lanka). When the Protestant Churches in South India were united on the eve of Independence and formed the Church of South India it elected Bishop Lakdasa de Melo (Colombo) as its first head. But there is no administrative control over the island to either of the countries. c. Gift by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to Prime Minister of Sri Lanka: In 1974 Prime Minister Indira Gandhi gifted this island to her counterpart of Sri Lanka to help her ( Sirimao Bandaru Nayake) who was facing political turmoil, by signing the Indo-Sri Lankan Marine Agreement. Dr. M Karunanidhi of DMK was in power in Tamilnadu at that time. The DMK members, Thever of Forward Block raised the issue in Lok Sabha on 23-07-1974 and walked out of Lok Sabha in protest. But in spite of the gift, fishermen from both the countries continued to catch fish as usual and used the Church also.

d. Change in situation since 1983: After Sri Lanka took up anti Tamil Programme since July 1983, there was a change in the situation. Hundreds of fishermen from Tamilnadu have been killed, wounded and high value equipment of fishermen was destroyed. The Tamilnadu rivals viz. DMK and AIDMK which never agreed on any point, came together demanding the

Government of India to scrap the Gift Agreement and retrieve the island in July 3rd week 2008, as the Sri Lankan Army shot at the unarmed fleet of fishing boats in which two Indian fishermen were killed and a few of them were also wounded. e. The Supreme Court moved: Jayalalitha the leader of the AIADMK on 7-8-2008 moved the Supreme Court for retrieving the islet on the ground the Executive Order ceding the island to Sri Lanka was illegal as the Parliament has to ratify it through Amendment to the Constitution as decided by the Supreme Court in an earlier decision. It is still pending before the Supreme Court.