khosla m health.12.04.12

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2025: 20% doctor included? an exercise in technology speculation & musings vinod khosla [email protected]

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Can we have better healthcare with fewer doctors? This is the topic that Rob McCray explored with investor Vinod Khosla of Khosla Ventures and Dr. Joe Kvedar of the Center for Connected Health at Partners Healthcare. We had more agreement than sparks in the conversation at the mHealth Summit.

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Page 1: Khosla m health.12.04.12

2025: 20% doctor included?

an exercise in technology speculation & musings

vinod [email protected]

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10% to 20% of cases:delayed, missed, and incorrect diagnosis

graber, et al., jama

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40,000+ patients in u.s. icusmay die with a misdiagnosis annually

winters, et al., bmj quality & safety

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in many records of patients with a high-risk diagnosis, high-information clinical findings were present

before the diagnosis was establishedfeldman, et al., jamia

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nearly half of all american adults have difficulty understanding and acting upon health information

institute of medicine of the national academies

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most [patients] preferred receiving their discharge information from the [computer] agent

compared to their doctors or nurses in the hospitalbickmore, et al., interacting with computers

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50% of MDs are below-averagemath

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human doctors

cognitive limitations

cognitive biases

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the value of second opinions

http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20111204/NEWS05/312049987?tags=|74|305|339|342

cleveland clinic doctors’ review of initial diagnosis

patients switching doctors after receiving second opinion

recommend minor changes to treatment plan

recommend moderate changes to treatment plan

recommend major changes to treatment plan

find need for further testing

disagree with initial diagnosis

5%

22%

26%

18%

15%

11%

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for most study designs and settings,it is more likely for a research claim

to be false than truejohn ioannidis

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wide ranges of uncertainty

archimedes

0% 0.2% 0.5% 1% 1% 1% 1.5% 1.5% 2% 3%

3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6%

6% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10% 13% 13% 15%

15% 18% 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25% 30%

30% 40% 50% 50% 50% 62% 70% 73% 75%

75% 75% 75% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

100%

fifty-eight experts’ estimates of the chance of a spontaneous rupture of a silicone breast implant

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wide ranges of uncertainty

archimedes

seventeen experts’ estimates of the effect of screening on colon cancer deaths

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

proportion of colon cancer deaths prevented

= one expert’s response

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entrepreneurs will ask the naïve questions that uncover

hidden assumptions…

…and move us to the grey zone of “speculations”

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in the future,you will have the data and the data analysis to become

the CEO of your own healthpeter diamandis

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80% of what MDs do can be replaced (with better care than the average MD)…

…but not every MD function will be replaced

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lifecom CHAMP

I …distributed care with medical assistants were 91% accurate

without labs, imaging, or exams

II …“safe triage” with 75% physician bypass rate for acute care encounters

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isabel II

matched expert diagnoses 95% of the time

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archimedes

run clinical trials…

…before you run clinical trials

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machines are better at integrative medicine…

…across “all symptoms”, demeanor, patient history, phone activity, 1000s of data points, genomics, population

management guidelines, …

…and machines won’t have to win every red state and blue state…

…they’ll just be better overall

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the “human” element of care can be provided by the most “humane” humans

(and MDs can be humane)

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the transition will start with “toddler MDs” and digital first-aid kits

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dr. algorithm

v0

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don’t call for an appointment when the doc’s free…

…book one online instantly when it works for you

*a khosla ventures investmentZocDoc

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don’t go to the hospital and get connected to a bunch of electrodes…

…take your own ecg for less than a buck…

…and know you have heart disease before you have an attack!

*a khosla ventures investmentAliveCor

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don’t go to the optometrist…

…get measured for glasses at home

*a khosla ventures investmentEyeNetra

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don’t wait days to take your daughter to the hospital…

…check her ear infection as soon as it hurts

*a khosla ventures investmentCellScope

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Adamant Technologies

NOx: 40ppm

don’t wait for an asthma attack…

…know when it’s coming

*a khosla ventures investmentAdamant

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don’t just smile and nod…

…hear what your “doc” is telling you

*a khosla ventures investmentGamgee

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forget kappas of 0.2 in the DSM-5…

…get reliable, consistent diagnoses

*a khosla ventures investmentGinger.io

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keep people out of the doctor’s office…

…with point innovations in cardiology, dermatology, optometry, psychiatry,

internal medicine, …

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healthcare service stations&

digital first aid kits

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...and your innovation here (call us)

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…will become a wave…

…and grow into a tsunami

innocuous point innovations…

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dr. algorithm

v0v1 – 2015v2 – 2017v3 – 2019v4 – 2021v5 – 2023v6 – 2025

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we’ll start with clumsy point innovations like alivecor, cellscope, adamant, ginger.io,

neurotrek, consumer physics, jawbone, misfit, …

…“insighted” by Ayasdi…

…leading us to discover things we never knew were right in front of us

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the best MDs will train systems over 10 years…

…systems will symbiotically provide “bionic assist” and “AMPLIFY” MDs

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dr. house+++ will be the trainer for dr. algorithm

…no manners required!…but manners learned!

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findings thanks to data

kaiser permanente

using statins for in-hospital stroke patients reduced the death rate by 40%!

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better data for post-study studies

overcome ioannidis’ problem of regressions to the mean

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smart computers can be objective cost minimizers…

…while being care optimizers

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the practice of medicine

the science of medicine

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the problem is not MDs…

…they have served us well in the “practice of medicine”…

…but humans are not good at the integrative “science of medicine”…

…or the misalignment of incentives

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there aren’t enough rural doctors in india and few have access to jama journals, mris, …

…the world of medicine is under-resourced globally

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the shift to “computerization” has already happened in other areas…

…airline pilots, stock trading, car driving

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I will be wrong on the specifics but directionally right

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20% doctor included?

vinod [email protected]