kevin anderson research director tyndall centre university of manchester november 2008 reframing...

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Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate

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Page 1: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Kevin AndersonResearch director

Tyndall Centre University of Manchester

November 2008

Reframing Climate Change:

Based on research by Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows

Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering

How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate

Page 2: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Talk outline

1) What is dangerous climate change?

2) Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions

3) Global greenhouse gas emission pathways

4) UK greenhouse gas emission pathways

Page 3: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

What is dangerous climate change?

UK & EU define this as 2C

Page 4: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

What are the ‘correct’ emission-reduction targets for

2C ? UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets

- UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050- EU 60%-80% reduction in CO2 e by 2050- Bali 50% global reduction in CO2e by 2050

But CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years

Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows

So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

Page 5: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

the final % reduction in carbon has little

relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change

(e.g. 2C)

Put bluntly …

What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon & other

greenhouse gases (i.e. the carbon budget)

Page 6: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

How do global temperatureslink to

global and national carbon budgets & from there to

emission-reduction pathways?

Page 7: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Temperature threshold

GHG concentration

Global cumulative emission budget

National cumulative emission budget

Apportionment regime

science/modelling

science/modelling

Global emission pathway

National emission pathway

2000-2008emissions

+short-termprojections

Page 8: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Page 9: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Illustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

available carbon budget

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

s

Page 10: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

available carbon budget

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Plot recent emissions

Page 11: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

available carbon budget

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Em

issi

on

s alr

ead

y

rele

ase

d

Page 12: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

available carbon budget

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Em

issi

on

s alr

ead

y

rele

ase

d

We can project:- Short-term emissions to peak year/s

We know:- Cumulative emissions for 2°C

Page 13: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

available carbon budget

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Em

issi

on

s alr

ead

y

rele

ase

d

Hence can draw emission pathways

Page 14: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

carbon budget range

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

An

nu

al C

O2e

em

issi

on

sIllustrative pathway for a CO2e budget

Em

issi

on

s alr

ead

y

rele

ase

d

Page 15: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

How does this ‘scientifically-credible’ way

of thinking alter the challenge we face at:

1) the global level

2) the UK level

Page 16: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

the global level

Page 17: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

What are the latest CO2 emission trends?

What are implications of factoring in:

- land-use & forestry?

- non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions?

When will global CO2e emissions peak?

Tyndall’s

‘global emission scenarios (CO2e)’

Page 18: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs

~ 3.3% p.a. in last 5 years

What are the latest global CO2 emission trends?

Page 19: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

What are the latest global CO2e emission trends?

~ 2.8% p.a. since 2000

~ Stern assumed 0.96%

Page 20: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

Recent emissions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 E

mis

sions

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C

O2 E

mis

sions

(GtC

y-1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:

A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61Observed

2000-2006 3.3%

20062005

Page 21: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of C

O2 (

MtC

O2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Emissions of CO2 from land-use change

- Characterised by high

uncertainty (principally

driven by deforestation)

- Represents 12%-25% of

total global greenhouse

gas emissions in 2000

- Two Tyndall scenarios

with different carbon-

stock levels remaining:

70% & 80%

- Optimistic compared

with Forest Resource

Assessment

Page 22: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of n

on-C

O2 g

hg (

GtC

O2e)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Early actionMid actionLate action

- Short-term EPA estimates

- Characterised by

considerable tail due to

emissions associated

with food production

- Represents ~20-23% of

total global greenhouse

gas emissions in 2000

- Three scenarios with

different peak dates

Page 23: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Bush - USA - 2025

Stern – Global aim - 2015

Tyndall - 2015, 2020, 2025

Suggested CO2e emissions peak?

Page 24: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

2°C

greenhouse gas emission pathways

(450ppmv CO2e)

Page 25: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

For 2°C, emissions between 2000-2100 (the carbon budget) are estimated to be

~ 1400 to 2200 GtCO2e

Page 26: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Total greenhouse gas emission pathways

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

of g

reen

hous

e ga

ses

(GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Low DL

Low DH

Medium DL

Medium DH

High DL

High DH

2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak

(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)

Page 27: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020

Year

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issio

ns o

f g

ree

nh

ou

se

ga

se

s (

GtC

O2e

)

0

20

40

60

80

Low ALow BMedium AMedium BHigh AHigh B

What does all this imply for a 450ppmvCO2e future?

Unprecedented annual

reductions (~10% pa globally, even for 2020 peak)

Page 28: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

3°C & 4°C

greenhouse gas emission pathways

(550 & 650 ppmv CO2e)

Page 29: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

For 3°C (550ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020:

6% annual reductions in CO2e

9% annual reductions in CO2 from energy

For 4°C (650ppmv CO2e) with emissions peaking by 2020:

3% annual reductions in CO2e

3.5% annual reductions in CO2 from energy

Page 30: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Annual reductions of greater than 1% p.a. have only

“been associated with economic recession or upheaval”

Stern 2006

UK gas & French 40x nuclear ~1% p.a. reductions

(ex. aviation & shipping)

Collapse Soviet Union economy ~5% p.a. reductions

What are the precedents for such reductions?

Page 31: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Even assuming:

… an unprecedented step change in mitigating emissions

… stabilising at 650ppmv CO2e appears increasingly to be

the best we can expect

i.e. human-induced climate change of ~4°C or more

So where does this leave us?

Page 32: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

We need to urgently reframe the climate change debate:

For mitigation

2°C should remain the driver of policy

For adaptation

4°C should become the driver of policy

Consequently …

Page 33: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

the UK level(older work based on CO2 only - to be updated)

Page 34: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

~ 17-23 GtCO2

between 2000-2050

the UK’s budget is

For a reasonable chance of 2°C to 3°C

Page 35: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today?

2. What emissions are we locked into in the

immediate future?

From this two questions arise

Page 36: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

… emissions between 2000-2006

were

~ 4.5 billion tonnes of CO2… i.e. we’ve used ~¼ of our permitted

emissions for 50 years in around 6 years

Answer 1

Page 37: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Looking at this graphically …

Answer 2

Page 38: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Carbon pathway

Page 39: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Plot data from 2000 to 2006

Carbon pathway

Dip due to September 11th

Page 40: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

What about the next 6 years …

with more aviation and shipping

Carbon pathway

Page 41: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

This gives a notable rise in emissions between now & 2012

Carbon pathway

Page 42: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Carbon pathway

But UK can emit

only

17 to 23 GtCO2

locking nation into unprecedented annual CO2 reductions for

~2 decades, beginning 2012-14

6% p.a.

9% p.a.

Page 43: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

6% p.a.

9% p.a.

… and this equates, at best, to only a 50:50 chance of staying below 2°C

Page 44: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

What does the pathway approach say

about UK emission policies ?

Page 45: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Mos

t em

ission

s ove

r

the

next

15 ye

ars

Policy implications

Page 46: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ca

rbo

n d

ioxi

de

em

issi

on

s (M

tCO 2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

demand

supply&

demand

Policy implications

Page 47: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

Does the demand-side have what’s

needed?

Page 48: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

FuelProduction,Extraction &TransportPowerstationTransmission

ElectricityConsumptionLight

10 50 54 120 133

the example of domestic lighting

Page 49: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

… ultimately ..

“at every level the greatest obstacle to

transforming the world is that we lack the

clarity and imagination to conceive that it

could be different.”Roberto Unger

Page 50: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

1-person living in 3 bedroom housespatio heaters10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3milesdriving children to school business tycoons with private jetsacademics flying to climate change conferencesmusicians flying to climate change concerts celebrating the excesses of celebrities‘right’ to fly & drive when & to wherever we want year-round strawberrieshen parties in Prague & birthdays in Barcelonadouble door refrigerators & home cinemasecond homes, 2 cars & 3 TVs & all with 9 billion people living on our planet!

Page 51: Kevin Anderson Research director Tyndall Centre University of Manchester November 2008 Reframing Climate Change: Based on research by Kevin Anderson &

EndReframing Climate Change:

Kevin Anderson & Alice BowsTyndall Centre

University of Manchester

How recent emission trends & the latest science change the debate