KENYAN VISION 2040

CONTRIBUTED BY:

PRESENTATION TO THE “20TH ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013” AT TOM

MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU

We are not aloneN = R*. fp. ne. fl. fi fc. L (DR. FRANK DRAKE’S EQUATION)

N = Number of communicative civilisations in the Milky Way at our current level of civilisation;

R* = Rate of formation of “sun like” stars;fp = Fraction of those stars (*R) that have planets;

ne = Number of “earth like” planets per star that has planets;

fℓ = Fraction of earth like planets (ne) where life actually develops;

fi = Fraction of life sites ( fℓ ) where intelligence develops;

fc = Fraction of intelligent civilizations (fi) that develop detectable communication in space;

L = “Lifetime" of communicating civilizations;

What shall we tell the alien?How we elect leaders to lord over us whether in

democracy or communism or many other confused systems – he will not be interested

How we deliver justice arbitrarily – he will not be interested

Our pastimes: football, dancing, weddings and bull fighting – he will not be interested

Our senseless habits bordering on insanity where we overfeed then spend a great deal of time and resources reducing accumulation of fat in our bodies - he will not be interested

If our experience with UFOs and crop circles can guide us then what the alien wants to know is simply our technological advancement of which the Engineer and the scientist are the custodians

238 m diameter crop circle in the form of a double triskelion on an oats field, England, 2001.Origin: unknown

Crop circle or formation

Our salvation lies in Vision 2040

ContentsVision 2040: Targets and requirementsRecent railway development in NairobiApprehension about large infrastructure projectsPurpose built cities and designated transport

corridorsFunding Vision 2040 projectsEngineering opportunitiesVision 2040: Developing infrastructureCase studies for passengers and freight transportTypical minor challenges building a railwayBenefits of building railwaysThank you

Vision 2040: Objectives

A first world economy;Learned, well educated and well informed population;Economic, scientific and technological super power;Adequate military strength;Living in harmony with the Environment;*“Healthy food” secure (a healthy nation from

balanced diet, focused primary health care and general peace of mind);

A peaceable, tranquil and progressive country in harmony with all neighbours and all nations in the Universe.

Requirements: Transport Infrastructure

To achieve Vision 2040 transport infrastructure development will be one the key pillars.

Develop transport infrastructure well connected in the country and into the region for Kenya to be the preferred transport and logistics hub in the region

Assist neighbouring countries to connect their transport infrastructure to the Kenyan network;

Create and define in law “trunk” transport infrastructure corridors.

Requirements: Others

Abandon oil exploration and exploitation within Kenya;

*But, refine any all crude oil from the Region passing through Kenya;

Reduce to a minimum reliance on off-shore tourism and diaspora handouts;

*Nurture and develop local, corporate and individual (US$) billionaires within the shortest possible time;

Develop new purpose built cities;Assist neighbouring countries to achieve

first world economic status;

Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation

Road:Small passenger volumes over short and medium

distancesParcels (smalls) over short distancesUndefined origin and destinations (the last mile)Long distance freight

Airports:Passengers over medium and long distances (≥ 800 km)High valued parcelsLeisureDefence

Water:High volumes passengers over short distances such as

ferriesLeisure (ocean cruises and inland waters leisure boats)FishingIntercontinental high volume freight (containers, fluids and

dry cargo)Inland waters – leisure and bulk freight

Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation (cont.)

Pipeline:Bulk fluids (water, petroleum products, natural gas)Sewer

Power linesElectricity

Fibre optic cablesSpeech and data

RailwayHigh volume passengers over short, medium

and long distancesHigh volume freight overland for short and

long distances (including intercontinental transport)

antiquated

Typical high volume short distance rail passenger service; showing also multipurpose use of a railway corridor

FROM

Syokimau Railway Station Train on platform

TO

TO

Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility

TO

Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facility

TO

Imara Daima Railway Station under construction (60% complete)

Makadara Railway Station under construction (70% complete)

Developing Large Projects

Mindset about large infrastructure projects particularly for public transport

General bitterness over money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephants

Unnecessary public/media scrutiny benefiting auditors, NGOs, agitators and lawyers; discouraging developers, engineers and users;

Remember: these are teething problems all countries go through on the road to full development status

100%

0%

1960/70s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010

8.5%

Infrastructure Projects “Eating” curve

Residual “eating” level

Cost of recovering the 8.5% is greater than cost of the whole project

Vision 2040: Purpose-built Cities

Lamu: Deep water seaport for Post Panama-X vessels (petroleum oil tankers,

edible oil tankers, container ships and general freight ships)

Isiolo: Oil refinery, petrochemical industries, products marketing and

distribution centre Transport and logistical hub for Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and South

Sudan

Homa Bay: Free Port to serve the Great Lakes Region

Nairobi : Regional financial hub Transport and logistical hub for the Great Lakes Region

Lodwa/Turkana: Bread basket for strategic food reserve – irrigated and natural

commercial farming and livestock production; Agro industries; animal food products industries

Purpose built cities and Trunk transport Corridors (red) for Vision 2040

Transport corridors

Secure and designate transport corridors sufficient for all the anticipated transport elements to speed up development process;

Transport infrastructure development should not be left in the hands of counties;

Undertake robust studies to identify the most appropriate modes of transport to be promoted within a corridor

•Crude and refined petroleum oil pipelines connects the Port to Isiolo.

•All transport infrastructure elements provided between Lamu and Isiolo

LAMU DEEP WATER SEAPORT

Proposed Lamu Port: Location

Isiolo Crude Oil Refinery

Capacity > 200,000 barrels per day;Crude and refined petroleum oil pipeline to Juba and Lamu;Refined petroleum oil pipeline to Addis Ababa and Nairobi;Transport infrastructure elements between Isiolo, Nairobi, Juba and Addis Ababa

Isiolo Petrochemical Industries

Aim at 100% value addition on any crude oil passing through Kenyan Soil

Homa Bay Duty Free Port strategically located to serve the Great Lakes Region

Homa Bay Duty Free Port

Provide easy access from Airport,ample supply of electricity, water and communication

Typical Financial District proposed for Upper Hill Nairobi

Modern mechanised Farming for food security proposed for Turkana County. Note: Turkana County has more arable land and fresh water than Israel!

Modern mechanised large scale livestock production proposed for Turkana County

Funding Vision 2040 projectsDo not under-rate your Government’s capacity to mobilise funds when the need arises. Sources:GoK budgets (60%):

Vision 2040 development levy – 40%Taxation – 10%Capital Markets 10%

GoK borrowing (27%):Concessional loans = 15%Commercial loans =10% (8% locally, 2% offshore)String-less grants = 2%

Private investment = 8% (keep it very low – citizens have no control over private investors leading losses and delays to projects and poor quality of service delivery)Miscellaneous = 5%

Engineering opportunitiesChinese Adage: In a country where engineers

have small minds, their Government will think small; in a country where engineers have big minds, their Government will always find money from “somewhere” for big projects;

Vision 2030 was driven and owned by economists, political scientists, prophets, politicians and other “soft” scientists – result: dismal achievement so far;

Vision 2040 to be owned and driven by those engineers who have BIG MINDS.

China, South Korea, Japan, the US are seeking new homes for their large scale industries suitable for Vision 2030 objectives;

Appropriate transport: Case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail commuter servicesNairobi – Thika super-highway10 lanes220+ metres corridorHypothetical capacity = 1,800 vehicles per hour per

lane (beyond this, congestion would reduces rate of flow of vehicles)

Environmental pollution = highTotal delivery at both ends = 41,400 passengers per

hour (discounting car-pooling and assuming 2.3 passengers per vehicle to take into account buses and mini-buses)

Cost per Km = US$ 7.92 million (excluding land acquisition, demolitions and relocation expenses

Commuter Rail systemExisting dilapidated Nairobi – Ruiru line delivers 20,000

passengers within a span of four hour between Nairobi and Ruiru (operations are limited to morning and evening peak hours)

Corridor width = 30 metres After modernisation: frequency of trains = one (1) train

movement every three minutes in each direction,Capacity per train: 1,800 passengers (each train has 10

coaches of capacity 180 passengers)Hypothetical delivery: 72,000 per hour (20 trains reaching

either destination per hour)Estimated delivery: 50,400 per hour (assuming 70%

operational efficiencyCost of double track railway (Nairobi - Thika) per Km ≈

US$ 2.97 million

Appropriate transport: case study – Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail

commuter services

Item Nairobi – Thika Highway

Nairobi – Thika Railway

Number of lanes 10 Two (2) tracks

Corridor width 120 metres 30 metres

Delivery at both ends

41,400 p/hour 50,400 p/hour

Two (2) lane delivery for comparison

8,280 p/hour 50,400 p/hour

Efficiency of delivery

1 6.1

Environmental pollution

High Low

Cost of installation 7.92 US$ M/km 2.97 US$ M/km

Capital cost comparison

2.67 1

Cost of operation High Low

Summary of Comparisons

A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport corridorRoad transportEstimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in

2020 ≈ 25 million tonnesNumber of lanes required = 8Corridor width = 150+ metresHypothetical number of trucks required = 2,869 vehicles

per day (assuming each vehicle carrying 35 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 70% operation efficiency) = 120 vehicles per hour

Average delivery speed = 21 Km/hr (i.e. 24 hours from Mombasa to Nairobi including disruptions at weighbridges and checkpoints)

Environmental pollution = highCost per Km = US$ 6.34 million (excluding land acquisition

and relocation expenses

A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport

Railway freight transportEstimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country

in 2020 ≈ 25 million tonnesNumber of lanes required = single trackCorridor width = 30 metres (minimum = 20 metres)Hypothetical number of trains per day = 19

(assuming each train carrying 4,000 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 90% operation efficiency)

Average delivery speed = 65 Km/hr (i.e. 8 hours Kilindini to Embakasi)

Environmental pollution = lowCost of construction per Km = US$ 2.86 million

(excluding land acquisition and relocation expenses

Item Mombasa – Nairobi Road

Mombasa - Nairobi Railway

Freight volume 25 million tonnes 25 million tonnes

Corridor width 100+ metres 30 metres

Number of trucks/trains

*2,869/day 19/day

Number of lanes/tracks

8 1

Average delivery speed

21 Km/hr 65 Km/hr

Environmental pollution

High Low

Cost of construction

6.34 US$ M/km US$ 2.86 M/Km

Capital cost comparison

2.22 1

Cost of operation High Low

Summary of Comparisons

*One (1) track loaded with 35 tonnes of freight leaving the Port every 30 seconds

240 TEUs container train compared to a loaded truck with one (1) 40-foot container

Comparative costs for long distance delivery:•Truck = US$ 0.12 per tonne-km•Rail = US$ 0.065 per tonne-km•Cost of transport reduced on average by 46%

E.g. container MSA - KLA•Road = US$ 3,025•Rail = US$ 1,788•Savings = 41%

Section Challenge Mitigation

Changamwe to Mazeras

Steep climb and raged terrain

Cuttings and viaducts

Tsavo National park

Environmental Fencing, animal underpass

Chyulu water tower

Environmental Viaducts

Nairobi to Kedong Valley to Longonot

Steep descent and raged terrain

Deep cuttings, viaducts and tunnels

MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges

Section Challenge Mitigation

Mbaruk swamp Environmental Mitigation: a cluster of culverts

Nakuru to Timboroa

Steep ascent out of Rift Valley

Two tunnels ≈ 1.5 km each

Timboroa to Kisumu

Steep descent, ragged terrain into the Lake Basin

Viaducts, long bridges

Whole system Land compensation and PAPs relocation

Minimise

MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges

Kisumu Branch Line – steep descent and rough terrain

Kisumu Branch Line – a typical challenge

Kisumu Branch Line – gorge

Building a railway: BenefitsJobs creationDirect jobs creation {at least 60 jobs per kilometre of

track (Mombasa –Nairobi Railway will create 30,000 jobs with a dwell time of 5-years)}

Jobs creation from rapid industrialisation ≈ 10,000 (large quantities of local inputs such as steels, cement, aggregates, electricity transmission poles and cables, roofing materials, glass, plastics, rubber etc. all made locally will be required)

Jobs creation from service industry ≈ 3,000 (providers of foods, accommodation and leisure)

Jobs creation from developed skills ≈ 3,000 (self employment after the project by masons, carpenters, mechanics and electricians)

Development of skills: For future use locally, regionally and globally

Operating a railway: BenefitsJobs creation Mombasa – Nairobi RailwayDirect employment ≈ 4,000Supply chain ≈ 2,000Service providersReduced cost of transportationCompetitive tariffsSafer roadsReduced accidents causing loss of life, injury

and damage to propertyPleasant environmentReduced pollution

Operating a railway: Benefits (cont.)

Savings in foreign exchange: Less fuel requirement for transportation

Appreciation of property value along the corridor

*Decongestion of major cities: Living further from working place

Industrialisation along the railway corridor: Easy access and cheaper means of transportation

Annual GDP growth of at least 1%: Increasing volumes of regional trade

SUMMARYThe Aliens will soon be with us here. We must

prepare to show them robust technology, failing which they will subject us to slavery, abuse and colonialism;

VISION 2040 is our salvation;Engineering, science and technology is the route

to that salvation;Only engineers can deliver that salvation;The aliens will only spare this country the agony

of slavery, abuse and colonialism at the sight of our high speed, high capacity, reliable, cost effective long and short distance railway technology!

DISCLAIMER

Some of the thoughts presented here might be thought-provoking. The author shall not be held responsible for subsequent damage resulting from any thoughts provoked by these thoughts

THANK YOU