kenyan vision 2040

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KENYAN VISION 2040. PRESENTATION TO THE “20 TH ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013” AT TOM MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU. CONTRIBUTED BY:. We are not alone. N = R*. f p . n e. f l. f i f c . L (DR. FRANK DRAKE’S EQUATION) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • KENYAN VISION 2040CONTRIBUTED BY:PRESENTATION TO THE 20TH ENGINEERS INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013 AT TOM MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU

  • We are not aloneN = R*. fp. ne. fl. fi fc. L (DR. FRANK DRAKES EQUATION)

    N = Number of communicative civilisations in the Milky Way at our current level of civilisation;R* = Rate of formation of sun like stars;fp = Fraction of those stars (*R) that have planets;ne = Number of earth like planets per star that has planets; f = Fraction of earth like planets (ne) where life actually develops;fi = Fraction of life sites ( f ) where intelligence develops;fc = Fraction of intelligent civilizations (fi) that develop detectable communication in space;L = Lifetime" of communicating civilizations;

  • What shall we tell the alien?How we elect leaders to lord over us whether in democracy or communism or many other confused systems he will not be interestedHow we deliver justice arbitrarily he will not be interestedOur pastimes: football, dancing, weddings and bull fighting he will not be interestedOur senseless habits bordering on insanity where we overfeed then spend a great deal of time and resources reducing accumulation of fat in our bodies - he will not be interestedIf our experience with UFOs and crop circles can guide us then what the alien wants to know is simply our technological advancement of which the Engineer and the scientist are the custodians

  • 238m diameter crop circle in the form of a double triskelion on an oats field, England, 2001.Origin: unknownCrop circle or formation

  • Our salvation lies in Vision 2040

  • ContentsVision 2040: Targets and requirementsRecent railway development in NairobiApprehension about large infrastructure projectsPurpose built cities and designated transport corridorsFunding Vision 2040 projectsEngineering opportunitiesVision 2040: Developing infrastructureCase studies for passengers and freight transportTypical minor challenges building a railwayBenefits of building railwaysThank you

  • Vision 2040: ObjectivesA first world economy;Learned, well educated and well informed population;Economic, scientific and technological super power;Adequate military strength;Living in harmony with the Environment;*Healthy food secure (a healthy nation from balanced diet, focused primary health care and general peace of mind);A peaceable, tranquil and progressive country in harmony with all neighbours and all nations in the Universe.

  • Requirements: Transport InfrastructureTo achieve Vision 2040 transport infrastructure development will be one the key pillars.Develop transport infrastructure well connected in the country and into the region for Kenya to be the preferred transport and logistics hub in the regionAssist neighbouring countries to connect their transport infrastructure to the Kenyan network;Create and define in law trunk transport infrastructure corridors.

  • Requirements: OthersAbandon oil exploration and exploitation within Kenya;*But, refine any all crude oil from the Region passing through Kenya; Reduce to a minimum reliance on off-shore tourism and diaspora handouts;*Nurture and develop local, corporate and individual (US$) billionaires within the shortest possible time;Develop new purpose built cities;Assist neighbouring countries to achieve first world economic status;

  • Transport infrastructure: correct utilisationRoad:Small passenger volumes over short and medium distancesParcels (smalls) over short distancesUndefined origin and destinations (the last mile)Long distance freightAirports:Passengers over medium and long distances ( 800 km)High valued parcelsLeisureDefenceWater:High volumes passengers over short distances such as ferriesLeisure (ocean cruises and inland waters leisure boats)FishingIntercontinental high volume freight (containers, fluids and dry cargo)Inland waters leisure and bulk freight

  • Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation (cont.)Pipeline:Bulk fluids (water, petroleum products, natural gas)SewerPower linesElectricityFibre optic cablesSpeech and dataRailwayHigh volume passengers over short, medium and long distancesHigh volume freight overland for short and long distances (including intercontinental transport)

  • antiquatedTypical high volume short distance rail passenger service; showing also multipurpose use of a railway corridorFROM

  • Syokimau Railway Station Train on platformTO

  • TO

  • Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facilityTO

  • Syokimau Railway Station Park and ride facilityTO

  • Imara Daima Railway Station under construction (60% complete)

  • Makadara Railway Station under construction (70% complete)

  • Developing Large ProjectsMindset about large infrastructure projects particularly for public transportGeneral bitterness over money being "eaten", cost overruns, and white elephantsUnnecessary public/media scrutiny benefiting auditors, NGOs, agitators and lawyers; discouraging developers, engineers and users;Remember: these are teething problems all countries go through on the road to full development status

  • 100%0%1960/70s 1980s 1990s 2000 20108.5%Infrastructure Projects Eating curveResidual eating levelCost of recovering the 8.5% is greater than cost of the whole project

  • Vision 2040: Purpose-built CitiesLamu:Deep water seaport for Post Panama-X vessels (petroleum oil tankers, edible oil tankers, container ships and general freight ships)Isiolo:Oil refinery, petrochemical industries, products marketing and distribution centreTransport and logistical hub for Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and South SudanHoma Bay:Free Port to serve the Great Lakes RegionNairobi :Regional financial hubTransport and logistical hub for the Great Lakes RegionLodwa/Turkana:Bread basket for strategic food reserve irrigated and natural commercial farming and livestock production; Agro industries; animal food products industries

  • Purpose built cities and Trunk transport Corridors (red) for Vision 2040

  • Transport corridorsSecure and designate transport corridors sufficient for all the anticipated transport elements to speed up development process;Transport infrastructure development should not be left in the hands of counties;Undertake robust studies to identify the most appropriate modes of transport to be promoted within a corridor

  • Crude and refined petroleum oil pipelines connects the Port to Isiolo.All transport infrastructure elements provided between Lamu and IsioloLAMU DEEP WATER SEAPORT

  • Proposed Lamu Port: Location

  • Isiolo Crude Oil RefineryCapacity > 200,000 barrels per day;Crude and refined petroleum oil pipeline to Juba and Lamu;Refined petroleum oil pipeline to Addis Ababa and Nairobi;Transport infrastructure elements between Isiolo, Nairobi, Juba and Addis Ababa

  • Isiolo Petrochemical IndustriesAim at 100% value addition on any crude oil passing through Kenyan Soil

  • Homa Bay Duty Free Port strategically located to serve the Great Lakes RegionHoma Bay Duty Free Port

  • Provide easy access from Airport,ample supply of electricity, water and communicationTypical Financial District proposed for Upper Hill Nairobi

  • Modern mechanised Farming for food security proposed for Turkana County. Note: Turkana County has more arable land and fresh water than Israel!

  • Modern mechanised large scale livestock production proposed for Turkana County

  • Funding Vision 2040 projectsDo not under-rate your Governments capacity to mobilise funds when the need arises. Sources:GoK budgets (60%): Vision 2040 development levy 40%Taxation 10%Capital Markets 10%GoK borrowing (27%):Concessional loans = 15%Commercial loans =10% (8% locally, 2% offshore)String-less grants = 2%Private investment = 8% (keep it very low citizens have no control over private investors leading losses and delays to projects and poor quality of service delivery)Miscellaneous = 5%

  • Engineering opportunitiesChinese Adage: In a country where engineers have small minds, their Government will think small; in a country where engineers have big minds, their Government will always find money from somewhere for big projects;Vision 2030 was driven and owned by economists, political scientists, prophets, politicians and other soft scientists result: dismal achievement so far;Vision 2040 to be owned and driven by those engineers who have BIG MINDS.China, South Korea, Japan, the US are seeking new homes for their large scale industries suitable for Vision 2030 objectives;

  • Appropriate transport: Case study Nairobi - Thika Corridor for road and rail commuter servicesNairobi Thika super-highway10 lanes220+ metres corridorHypothetical capacity = 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane (beyond this, congestion would reduces rate of flow of vehicles)Environmental pollution = highTotal delivery at both ends = 41,400 passengers per hour (discounting car-pooling and assuming 2.3 passengers per vehicle to take into account buses and mini-buses)Cost per Km = US$ 7.92 million (excluding land acquisition, demolitions and relocation expenses

  • Commuter Rail systemExisting dilapidated Nairobi Ruiru line delivers 20,000 passengers within a span of four hour between Nairobi and Ruiru (operations are limited to morning and evening peak hours)Corridor width = 30 metres After modernisation: frequency of trains = one (1) train movement every three minutes in each direction,Capacity per train: 1,800 passengers (each train has 10 coaches of capacity 180 passengers)Hypothetical delivery: 72,000 per hour (20 trains reaching either destination per hour)Estimated delivery: 50,400 per hour (assuming

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