keller williams philly housing market presentation

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Deciphering the Philadelphia Housing Market PETER ANGELIDES FEBRUARY 23, 2017

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Page 1: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Deciphering the Philadelphia Housing Market PETER ANGELIDES

FEBRUARY 23, 2017

Page 2: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Overview

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• ESI’s Technical Applications• Cross Industrial City Trends

Demand:Millennials Public SchoolsJob GrowthChanging Commuting Patterns

Supply:Construction Database

• Housing Market Trends & ToolsPhiladelphia Housing IndexCondo Insight

Page 3: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

ESI’s Technical Applications

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Economic & Fiscal Impact Analyses Market Studies Hardship Studies

Valuations (not appraisals) Tax Appeal Cases Litigation Support

Page 4: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Selected Clients

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Page 5: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials

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● 20% of the region’s population

● 26% of the city’s population

● 46% of the Core Center City population

● 40% of the population of Greater Center City

Philadelphia Metro Area Age Distribution

2017 Housing Report: building on OptimismCenter City District & Central Development Corporation, Feb 22, 2017

Page 6: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials

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“It’s true that homeownership among this age group has traditionally been lower than in previous generations. But that may be more a function of delayed purchases due to millennials’ new financial reality: historically high student debt, recession, rising real estate costs, a challenging and stratified job market.”

Millennials Look to the Suburbs, Not Cities, for First Homes Curbed, June 21, 2016

Source: US Census Bureau, ACS, 2009 and 2014, 1-Year estimates

Median Household Income, 2009-14

Page 7: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Future of Philadelphia's

Millennials

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“Will they stay enchanted with Philly, looking past the tepid business environment and still-struggling school system?”

Has Philly Reached Peak Millennial? It’s Going to Be Hard to Find Out

BillyPenn, Feb 21, 2017

Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll, The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2016

Percentage of 18- to 34-Year Olds Likely to Be Living in Philadelphia in 5 to 10 Years

Page 8: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Public Schools

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“Thanks to its academic success, Penn Alexander quickly became a destination school for the type of middle-class families who once sidestepped the city’s troubled public schools or moved to the suburbs. The school’s popularity triggered a real estate boom in the West Philadelphia catchment area it serves.” Penn Alexander in Philadelphia Wins Major National Education Award,

Newsworks, Sept. 28, 2016 Curbed, June 21, 2016

Page 9: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Enrollment Trends

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“After years of decline, K-12 enrollment has stabilized in the past three years in schools run by the School District of Philadelphia and by the Archdiocese of Philadelphia. Enrollment in public charter schools has nearly doubled since the school year that ended in 2010.”

Philadelphia: The State of the City, A 2016 Update, The Pew Charitable Trusts, March, 2016

Page 10: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Job Growth

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“Neighborhoods are a source of vibrant economic growth, and local civic leaders and residents are passionate and informed...”

Roadmap for Growth: A Shared Agenda for the City to Promote Economic Growth and Job Creation, Dec 8, 2015

Page 11: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Job Growth

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Philadelphia: An Incomplete Revival,Center City District, Jan, 2017

Total Wage and Salary Employment, 1970-2016

Page 12: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns

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Page 13: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns

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Page 14: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Demand: SEPTA RidershipGrowth Between 1998-2016

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Page 15: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Supply: Construction Database

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Current Projects Under Construction in Center City

Page 16: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Supply: Construction Related

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The average number of days between zoning and building permit issuance between January 2011 and January 2015 went from 204 to 172 days.

Page 17: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Supply: Construction Related

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Center City Housing Construction Meeting Demand, But Challenges Loom, Plan Philly, Feb 23, 2017

Greater Center City Housing Completions, 200-15

Page 18: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Supply: Rental Rates

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Source: departmentofnumbers.com

Real Gross Rent in Philadelphia (2104 Dollars)

Page 19: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Housing Market Trends Across Philadelphia’s Neighborhoods

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Page 20: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

• Aggregates every deed transfer in Philadelphia.

• Adjust sales prices for age, lot size, square footage, garage, central air, exterior, and tax exemption, seasonality.

• Statistical smoothing over time, within neighborhoods.

Housing Market Trends & Tools:Philadelphia Housing Index

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Page 21: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Philadelphia Housing Index

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• Assessment Data

• Transaction Data

• Aggregate to numerous boundaries: Districts, Neighborhoods, School Boundaries.

#PHLhousingindex

Page 22: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Philadelphia Housing Index, Growth Since January 2001

Page 23: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Philadelphia Housing Index River Wards

Page 24: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Philadelphia Housing Index2016 - Q4

Page 25: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Philadelphia Housing IndexChange 2001 Q1 - 2016 Q4

Page 26: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Housing Market Trends & Tools:Condo Insight

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• Tracks condominium sales across Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.

• Provides buyers, sellers, developers, real estate brokers, banks, condo associations detailed, customized and unbiased information

• Provide consulting and forecasting services

CONDO Insight

Page 27: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

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• Ranking

• Comparison and forecast

• Condo valuation

• Market overview

CONDO Insight

Page 28: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 29: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 30: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 31: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 32: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 33: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 34: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 35: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 36: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 37: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 38: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 39: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Condo Insight

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Page 40: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight

Questions? Comments? Other feedback?Please feel free to reach out to me directly at:

[email protected]

Condo Insight

Page 41: Keller Williams Philly Housing Market Presentation

Questions?

Peter Angelides, Ph.D., AICPEconsult solutions, [email protected]

Thank You

● econsultsolutions.com

● econsultsolutions.com/philadelphia-housing-index

● condoinsight.com