keller williams philly housing market presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Deciphering the Philadelphia Housing Market PETER ANGELIDES
FEBRUARY 23, 2017
Overview
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• ESI’s Technical Applications• Cross Industrial City Trends
Demand:Millennials Public SchoolsJob GrowthChanging Commuting Patterns
Supply:Construction Database
• Housing Market Trends & ToolsPhiladelphia Housing IndexCondo Insight
ESI’s Technical Applications
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Economic & Fiscal Impact Analyses Market Studies Hardship Studies
Valuations (not appraisals) Tax Appeal Cases Litigation Support
Selected Clients
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Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials
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● 20% of the region’s population
● 26% of the city’s population
● 46% of the Core Center City population
● 40% of the population of Greater Center City
Philadelphia Metro Area Age Distribution
2017 Housing Report: building on OptimismCenter City District & Central Development Corporation, Feb 22, 2017
Demand: Philadelphia’s Millennials
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“It’s true that homeownership among this age group has traditionally been lower than in previous generations. But that may be more a function of delayed purchases due to millennials’ new financial reality: historically high student debt, recession, rising real estate costs, a challenging and stratified job market.”
Millennials Look to the Suburbs, Not Cities, for First Homes Curbed, June 21, 2016
Source: US Census Bureau, ACS, 2009 and 2014, 1-Year estimates
Median Household Income, 2009-14
Demand: Future of Philadelphia's
Millennials
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“Will they stay enchanted with Philly, looking past the tepid business environment and still-struggling school system?”
Has Philly Reached Peak Millennial? It’s Going to Be Hard to Find Out
BillyPenn, Feb 21, 2017
Source: The Pew Philadelphia Poll, The Pew Charitable Trusts, 2016
Percentage of 18- to 34-Year Olds Likely to Be Living in Philadelphia in 5 to 10 Years
Demand: Public Schools
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“Thanks to its academic success, Penn Alexander quickly became a destination school for the type of middle-class families who once sidestepped the city’s troubled public schools or moved to the suburbs. The school’s popularity triggered a real estate boom in the West Philadelphia catchment area it serves.” Penn Alexander in Philadelphia Wins Major National Education Award,
Newsworks, Sept. 28, 2016 Curbed, June 21, 2016
Demand: Enrollment Trends
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“After years of decline, K-12 enrollment has stabilized in the past three years in schools run by the School District of Philadelphia and by the Archdiocese of Philadelphia. Enrollment in public charter schools has nearly doubled since the school year that ended in 2010.”
Philadelphia: The State of the City, A 2016 Update, The Pew Charitable Trusts, March, 2016
Demand: Job Growth
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“Neighborhoods are a source of vibrant economic growth, and local civic leaders and residents are passionate and informed...”
Roadmap for Growth: A Shared Agenda for the City to Promote Economic Growth and Job Creation, Dec 8, 2015
Demand: Job Growth
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Philadelphia: An Incomplete Revival,Center City District, Jan, 2017
Total Wage and Salary Employment, 1970-2016
Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns
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Demand: Changing Commuting Patterns
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Demand: SEPTA RidershipGrowth Between 1998-2016
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Supply: Construction Database
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Current Projects Under Construction in Center City
Supply: Construction Related
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The average number of days between zoning and building permit issuance between January 2011 and January 2015 went from 204 to 172 days.
Supply: Construction Related
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Center City Housing Construction Meeting Demand, But Challenges Loom, Plan Philly, Feb 23, 2017
Greater Center City Housing Completions, 200-15
Supply: Rental Rates
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Source: departmentofnumbers.com
Real Gross Rent in Philadelphia (2104 Dollars)
Housing Market Trends Across Philadelphia’s Neighborhoods
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• Aggregates every deed transfer in Philadelphia.
• Adjust sales prices for age, lot size, square footage, garage, central air, exterior, and tax exemption, seasonality.
• Statistical smoothing over time, within neighborhoods.
Housing Market Trends & Tools:Philadelphia Housing Index
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Philadelphia Housing Index
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• Assessment Data
• Transaction Data
• Aggregate to numerous boundaries: Districts, Neighborhoods, School Boundaries.
#PHLhousingindex
Philadelphia Housing Index, Growth Since January 2001
Philadelphia Housing Index River Wards
Philadelphia Housing Index2016 - Q4
Philadelphia Housing IndexChange 2001 Q1 - 2016 Q4
Housing Market Trends & Tools:Condo Insight
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• Tracks condominium sales across Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.
• Provides buyers, sellers, developers, real estate brokers, banks, condo associations detailed, customized and unbiased information
• Provide consulting and forecasting services
CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
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• Ranking
• Comparison and forecast
• Condo valuation
• Market overview
CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Condo Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
ECONSULT SOLUTIONS, INC.CONDO Insight
Questions? Comments? Other feedback?Please feel free to reach out to me directly at:
Condo Insight
Questions?
Peter Angelides, Ph.D., AICPEconsult solutions, [email protected]
Thank You
● econsultsolutions.com
● econsultsolutions.com/philadelphia-housing-index
● condoinsight.com