kamil gregor: a bayesian model of ecological inferece (presentation for the 2012 eusoc conference)
DESCRIPTION
This presentation was given by Kamil Gregor, data analyst with KohoVolt.eu, at the 2012 EUSOC Conference in Třebíč.TRANSCRIPT
„Crazy 90s and boring 00s?“:The Stability of Structure of Individual-level behaviour
in the Czech Republic
Kamil Gregor
Why my paper sucks?
Why my paper sucks?
Why my paper sucks?
The method…
Ecological inference problemBlacks Whites Total
1000600 400
? ? 400 Voters
? ? 600 Non-Voters
Ecological inference problemBlacks Whites Total
1000600 400
? ? 400 Voters
? ? 600 Non-Voters
Blacks Whites Total1000600 400
0 400 400 Voters
0 0 600 Non-Voters
Ecological inference problemBlacks Whites Total
1000600 400
? ? 400 Voters
? ? 600 Non-Voters
Blacks Whites Total1000600 400
0 400 400 Voters
0 0 600 Non-VotersBlacks Whites Total
1000600 400
400 0 400 Voters
200 400 600 Non-Voters
Blacks Whites Total1000600 400
200 200 400 Voters
400 200 600 Non-Voters
Basic Statistical Undeterminacy Problem
Pi = AiDi + Bi(1 – Di)
Whites BlacksTotal
1Pi 1 – Pi
Ai Di – Ai Di Voters
Bi(1 – Di) – Bi 1 – Di Non-Voters
How to solve an unsolvable problem?
• Surveys – sometimes unavaliable– Lack of resources– Unreliable responces– Ex post research (I do not see dead people)
• Statistical models
The model
Data Model Results
Model assumptions
• No changes in population• (No spatial autocorrelation)• A distribution of unobserved variables
corresponds to an a priori chosen distribution
Binomial Normal Distribution
Bayesian models
• Utilizing information on the distribution of observed variables to better assume a distribution of unobserved vatiables
What is it good for?
• When dealing with aggregate data• Filling cells in a contingancy table
A B C
? ? ? α
? ? ? β
? ? ? γ
Examples in political science
• Social, economic and demographic characteristics of a population (e.g. an electorate of a political party)
• Voter transitions between elections• Ticket-splitting
…and what to do with the method
Research question
• What the hell is going on?• The process of party system structuralization
in Central Europe in 1990s and 2000s• Central European party systems appear to be
unstructuralized but there might be a „hidden“ structure
• „Parties come and go but the structure remains the same (?)“
Research question
• Is there a stable underlying structure of electoral behaviour in Central Europe?
• The question is whether voters continually vote for political parties that occupy relatively similar position in a political space
The thesis
• V4 countries• Parliamentary elections since early 1990s• Voter transition rates between political parties
in pairs of consequential elections
The thesis
Non-voters VVČSSD KDU-ČSL KSČM ODS SUV SZ TOP09
Non-voters
ČSSD
ODS
KSČM
KDU-ČSL
SZ
Other
A conceptualization of political space
An old leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
An old leftist party
A new leftist party
A new leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
Model A
An old leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
An old leftist party
A new leftist party
A new leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
Model B
An old leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
An old leftist party
A new leftist party
A new leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
1
Model C
An old leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
An old leftist party
A new leftist party
A new leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
Model D
An old leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
An old leftist party
A new leftist party
A new leftist party
An old rightist party
An old rightist party
Operationalization
• How to operationalize ideology?• How to operationalize „new“ and „old“?• Are these two concepts sufficient to describe a
political space?
Possible results
• „Crazy 1990s“ and „boring 2000s“?– Lack of structure in the 1990s and stability in
2000s• Why?
– Relative unexperience of voters– „Crystalization“ of parties‘ ideological profiles
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Asva5SIBKjNudF9oUUc2MjNmMXYzN29KNmtCd2tZTmc&gid=1
