june market update report 2015

JUNE 2015

UPDATES

UPDATES

Home Prices

The Impact of Monthly Housing

Inventory on Home Prices

LESS THAN

6 MONTHS

BETWEEN

6-7 MONTHS

GREATER THAN

7 MONTHS

SELLERS

MARKETHomes prices

will appreciate

NEUTRAL

MARKETHomes prices

will only

appreciate with

inflation

BUYERS

MARKETHomes prices

will depreciate

FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by Region

FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by State

FHFA

Quarter-Over-Quarter Percent Change in Price by State

Source: CoreLogic

12-Month Home Price Change

1-Month Home Price Change

Source: CoreLogic

13.2%12.9%

12.4%

10.8%

9.3%

8.1%

6.7%

5.6%

4.8%4.5%

4.3% 4.5%4.6%

5.0% 5.0%

Jan2014

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb Mar

S&P Case Shiller 5/2015

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES

20 City Composite

Case Shiller

6.8%

5.1%

2.7%

12 Month 3 Month 1 Month

CoreLogic National Home Price Index 6/2015

Change in Residential Single Family

HOME PRICES

Home Price

Expectation

Survey

A nationwide panel of

over one hundred

economists, real estate

experts and investment

& market strategists.

Average Annual %

APPRECIATION

Pre-Bubble

Bubble

Bust

Recovery

To Date

Home Price Expectation Survey 2015 2Q

PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation


Cumulative House

Appreciation by 201926.7%

19.4%

11.8%

BullsAll

ProjectionsBears


8.7%

11.3%

4.8%

6.0%5.3%

2012 2013 2014 2015 April 2015 - April 2016

Core Logic

Percentage Change in U.S.HOME PRICE APPRECIATION

PROJECTED

“All signs are pointing toward

continued price appreciation

throughout 2015…

Anand Nallathambi, CEO of CoreLogic

Tight inventories, job growth

and the impact of demographics

and household formation are

pushing price levels in many states

toward record levels.”

Is another

HOUSINGBUBBLE about to take place?

“This spring buying season

is off to a strong start - in

fact, prices are going up

faster than they were just a

few months ago, according

to nearly every recent metric.

So does that mean we’re in a bubble?

Nope, that’s just what happens when

demand increases faster than supply.”

Jonathan Smoke, realtor.com Chief Economist

“Given the long stretch of

strong reports, it is no

surprise that people are

asking if we’re in a new

home price bubble…

I would describe this as a rebound

in home prices, not a bubble and

not a reason to be fearful.”

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of

the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices

Without data, you’re just

another person with

an opinion. W. Edwards Deming

6.8%

5.1%

2.7%

-9%

12 Month 3 Month 1 Month Peak-to-Current

CoreLogic National Home Price Index 6/2015

Change in Residential Single Family

HOME PRICES

Source: CoreLogic

9%

Price & Time Since The Peak

It’s not about

having the dots.

It’s about

CONNECTING

the dots!!

Seth Godin

$187,000 $195,400

$223,200

$5,400 $5,400 $5,500

2010 2013 2015 Projected

Homeowner Renter

NAR

Increasing Gap in Family Wealth

Increasing Gap in Family Wealth

$182K $190K $218K

NAR

$250,000

$260,750

$270,398

$279,592

$288,539

$297,772

January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020

$47,772

Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey

potential growth in family wealth over the next five

years based solely on increased home equity


$217,726

$18,672

$54,879

30 Year Total Financial Benefit of Owning Penalty of Waiting 1 Year to Buy Penalty of Waiting 3 Years to Buy

realtor.com 5.2015

The COST of

Waiting to Buy*Nationally, the

estimated wealth an

average buyer

would accumulate

over a thirty

year period

*Assuming projected increases in mortgage

rates and continuing price appreciation

$18,672

$54,879

Penalty of Waiting 1 Year to Buy Penalty of Waiting 3 Years to Buy

realtor.com 5.2015

The COST of Waiting to Buy**Assuming projected increases in mortgage

rates and continuing price appreciation

$680

$720

$760

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median Asking Rent

2010 - 2014

U.S. Census

4,300,000

4,400,000

4,500,000

4,600,000

4,700,000

4,800,000

4,900,000

5,000,000

5,100,000

5,200,000

5,300,000

Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr

NAR 5/2015

EXISTINGHome Sales

NAR 4/2015

6.1%

1.6%

3.6%

6.4%

13%

U.S. Northeast South West Midwest

by region

EXISTING

-10.1%

9%

21.2%19.1%

18%

13%

$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+

% -10.1% 9.0% 21.2% 19.1% 18.0% 13.0%

% Change in Sales from last year

by Price Range

NAR 5/2015

33 3935 4539

4539

49

2014 2015

Jan Feb March April

281 281

282 295

355 403

422425

2014 2015

Freddie Mac

EXISTING

NEW

HOME

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

January2014

February March April May June July August September October November December January2015

February March April

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 5/2015

PENDINGHome Sales

NAR 5/2015

14.0%

9.4%

13.3%14.8%

16.4%

U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Year-over-Year Pending Home Salesby region

July 2013 August September October Novem ber Decem ber January 2014 February March April May June July August September October Novem ber Decem ber January 2015 February March April

Foot Traffic

NAR 5/2015

…according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage

Share Index by AEI’s International Center on

Housing Risk

52.2% of all buyers

were first time

buyers in April

AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

First Time Home Buyers

AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk

532K

577K

November 2013-April 2014 November 2014-April 2015

Number of primary

owner-occupied,

first-time buyerpurchase mortgages

8.5% increase

5.2

5.7

5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

5.3

5.1 5.1

4.4

4.64.7

4.6

5.3

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Mar Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2015

last 12 months

6%

5.2%5%

-0.50% -0.50% -0.50%

2%

-0.90%

September October November December January 2015 February March April

NAR 5/2015

Inventory

Levels Year-over-Year

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

Freddie Mac 5/2015

Freddie Mac

Actual Rates January 2013 – June 2015

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

Freddie Mac 5/2015

Freddie Mac Rates April – May 2015

30 Year Fixed Rate

Mortgages

Decade Average Rate

1970s 8.86%

1980s 12.7%

1990s 8.12%

2000s 6.29%

Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade

Freddie Mac

4.5%

3.7%

4.0%

4.2%

3.9%

4.9%

2011 2012 2013 2014 May 2015 2016

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates

Freddie Mac

QuarterFannie

Mae

Freddie

MacMBA NAR

Average of all Four

2015 3Q 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1%

2015 4Q 3.9 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2%

2016 1Q 4.0 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4%

2016 2Q 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6%

Mortgage Rate Projections

4/2015

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

Where Are They Going?

Q3

Q4

2016 Q1

2016 Q2

Where Have

They Been

This Year?

Freddie Mac

Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

“The rule for when is it

time to refinance or buy

is always the same: given

your household budget and

where current interest rates are, if it

makes good financial sense to

refinance or take out a home loan

today, then today is the day to do it.”

Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae

April2013

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2014

Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb March April

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a

report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit

Availability

112

114

116

118

120

122

Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb March April

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a

report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit

Availability

UPDATES

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

June 2012 January 2013 January 2014 Jan 2015 March

S&P Case Shiller 5/2015

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

Case Shiller

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6% 5.2% 5% -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 2% -0.90

NAR 5/2015

Year-over-Year

Inventory Levels

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

January2011

January2012

January2013

January2014

January2015

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2015

2011 - Today

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Mar-13 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-15 Feb Mar Apr

Months Inventory of

HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2015

last 2 years

5.1

4.4

4.64.7

4.6

5.3

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 5/2015

last 6 months

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

Jan2012



Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2015

Feb Mar Apr

NAR 5/2015

EXISTINGHome Sales

90

95

100

105

110

January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 5/2015

PENDING Home Sales

Jan

2012

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

2013


2014


2015

Feb Mar Apr

Percentage of

Distressed Property

Sales

35%

10%

15%

NAR 5/2015

January 2012 - Today

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

6,7,8 FHFA Price Maps http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx

9 & 10 CoreLogic Price Maps http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx

11 Case Shiller Reporthttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-

0526.pdf

12 CoreLogic National HPI http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx

13-16Home Price Expectation

Surveyhttps://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2015_HPE_Survey.php

17CoreLogic % Change in US

Home Price Appreciationhttp://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx

18 Anand Nallathambi Quote http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic_hpi_march_2015.pdf

20 Jonathan Smoke Quote http://www.realtor.com/news/home-prices-climbing-faster-but-this-is-no-bubble/

21 David Blitzer Quotehttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-

0526.pdf

23, 24

Change in Single Family

Home Prices, Price & Time

Since Peak

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx

26, 27Increasing Gap in Family

Wealthhttp://www.realtor.org/infographics/widening-wealth-inequality-at-the-local-level

28

Correlation Between Home

Equity Appreciation & Family

Wealth

https://pulsenomics.com/Q2_2015_HPE_Survey.php

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

29, 30 The Cost of Waiting to Buy

http://origin-qps.onstreammedia.com/origin/multivu_archive/ENR/0-Financial-Benefit-of-Owning-Market-List.pdf

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-report-finds-waiting-to-buy-a-home-could-cost-thousands-

300089980.html

31 Median Asking Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

33, 34, 35,

37, 38

Existing Home Sales, %

Change by Price Range,

Pending Home Sales, YOY

Pending Sales by region

http://www.realtor.org

36 Home Sales in Thousands http://www.freddiemac.com/corporate/blog/research_and_analysis/20150527_1_april_home_sales.html

39 Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org/infographics/april-2015-foot-traffic

40, 41, First Time Homebuyers http://www.housingrisk.org/

42, 43Inventory Levels: Y-O-Y & last

12 monthshttp://www.realtor.org

46, 47, 30 Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

48 Historic Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html

49 30 Year Fixed Rate by Year http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/may_2015_public_outlook.pdf

ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link

50 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_052115.pdf

http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/may_2015_public_outlook.pdf

https://www.mba.org/Documents/Research/Mortgage%20Finance%20Forecast%20May%202015.pdf

http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/phs-4-29/Forecast-04-2015-us-economic-

outlook-04-29-2015.pdf

51 Mortgage Rates Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html

52 Doug Duncan Quote http://www.thehomestory.com/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-fed-and-your-mortgage/

53, 54 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm

56Case Shiller YOY Price

Change

https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/185742_cshomeprice-release-

0526.pdf

57 – 60

YOY Inventory Levels,

Inventory 2011 – Today, Last

2 years, Last 6 months,

http://www.realtor.org

61-63Existing Home Sales, Pending

Home Sales, Distressed Saleshttp://www.realtor.org

68 Robert Rose Quote http://sethprice.net/podcast/the-things-you-need-for-a-winning-marketing-strategy-with-robert-rose/

69 hootsuite Quote http://blog.hootsuite.com/social-media-content-marketing-mistakes/

How Can I Help?

Phone (720) 200-6868

E-Mail [email protected]

Cherry Creek Mortgage Company NMLS #3001

Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.

Kirsten Hamling

Marketing