j.p. morgan aviation, transportation & defense conference · regarding risk factors and other...

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1 J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference March 10, 2010 2 Cautionary Information These materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions, future productivity, future safety and operating performance, the success and outcome of network management initiatives, pricing strategy, and strategic investments, competitiveness and quality of service, and its ability to improve pricing, generate financial returns and significant margin leverage, and take advantage of new business opportunities. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10- K for 2009, which was filed with the SEC on February 5, 2010. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Page 1: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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1

J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference

March 10, 2010

2

Cautionary Information

These materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions, future productivity, future safety and operating performance, the success and outcome of network management initiatives, pricing strategy, and strategic investments, competitiveness and quality of service, and its ability to improve pricing, generate financial returns and significant margin leverage, and take advantage of new business opportunities. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2009, which was filed with the SEC on February 5, 2010. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Page 2: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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3

Conference Agenda

• Introduction to the Franchise

• First Quarter Volume Update

• Legacy Pricing

• Volume Leverage

4

Strength of the Franchise

Page 3: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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5

Union Pacific Hauls . . .

6

Serving the Global Economy

• Diverse Franchise Expands Market Opportunities

• Import/Export Balance Provides Opportunities with Strong/Weak U.S. Dollar

• Mexico’s Diverse Portfolio

– Almost 50/50 northbound v. southbound

– Emerging market potential

Domestic

70%

Other

Imports

12%

Mexico

Imports

4%

Other

Exports

9%Mexico

Exports

5%

2009 Freight Revenue($13.4 Billion)

Page 4: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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7

International Trade Drives Diverse OpportunitiesGrowth Areas for All Businesses

• Leveraged to the Consumer

– Asian imports

– Autos

• Demand for Food & Changing Diets

– Grain & grain products

– Meat & poultry

– Fertilizer

• Demand for U.S. Raw Materials

International

Intermodal

Vehicles

& Parts

Wheat

Feed

GrainsSteel

Soda Ash

Fertilizer

Plastics

Lumber

International Freight Revenue($3.9 Billion in 2009)

Other

Coal

Beer

Minerals

8

Global Demand for EnergyGrowth Potential Across UP’s Business Teams

Energy Sources

• Coal

• Petroleum/LPG

• Natural Gas

• Ethanol

• Wind

2009 Revenue

31%

Energy-

Related

Page 5: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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9

Supporting Oil and Natural Gas Development

***February YTD

2007 2008 2009 2010

Outlook

35,010

46,946

33,142

38,850

Drilling Materials* (Carloads)

2007 2008 2009 2010***

1,695 1,814

1,0461,265

U.S. Land Rig Counts** (Full Year Average)

*Primarily frac sand, but also includes other granular products used in oil and natural gas drilling.

**Source: Baker Hughes

10

Ethanol Mandate Drives ShipmentsEthanol Supply and Demand

• Ethanol and DDGS

– 2009 revenue of $391 million

– 11 percent of Agricultural

Products volume

Ethanol

DDGS

Forward Corn

Receiving Market

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Ethanol Demand*(Billions of Gallons)

*Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

Ethanol Traffic Flows

2013 2014 2015

Major Ethanol

Producers

Page 6: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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Innovative Solutions in Emerging MarketsWind Components

2007 2008 2009 2010

Outlook

917

2,739

4,311

7,140

Wind Components (Carloads)

Top states in wind production

States with significant growth potential

Current operating distribution centers

Possible future distribution center sites

12

Service Excellence Drives GrowthLower variability opens door for new customers and new markets

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

>30 30-20 20-10 10-0 0-10 10-20 20-30 >30

Hours Early Hours Late

Intermodal Train Arrival Performance • Opened 43 New Lanes in 2009

• Donner Tunnel Clearances

• Joliet Intermodal Terminal

Opens Fall 2010

Tomorrow

Today

Yesterday

2006 2007 2008 2009

Domestic Intermodal Volumes(In Millions)

1.24

1.21

1.16

1.25-2%

-4%

+8%

Page 7: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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Current Demand Levels Producing Growth

Flat

-3%

-5%

-12%

-21%-22%

-15%

-5%

+11%

Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Q2

2008 2009 2010

Positive Carload Trend

First Quarter Volume* (Revenue Carloads)

Chemicals

Agricultural

Intermodal

Automotive

Industrial

Energy

TOTAL

+6%

+20%

+2%

-2%

+10%

+11%

+61%

* As of 3/6/2010

14

Slowly Shrinking Stockpiles Help Demand

SPRB CO/UT

Jan Feb DecMar*

*March 2010 NCTA Forecast

32

36

28

20

24

6

8

4

0

2

10

Jan Feb DecMar*

2009 Monthly Trains Per Day

2010 Monthly Trains Per Day

2009 Average Trains Per Day

Trains

Per Day

Trains

Per Day

Page 8: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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Legacy Pricing OpportunitiesPercent of Revenue

Remaining Legacy

Energy 68%

Intermodal 21%

All Other 11%

2013+

2010

2011

2012

4%

2%

6%

Re-Priced

since 2004

6%

12% To Re-Price (As of 4/1/2010)

• Expect Solid 2010 Pricing

– Volume dependent

– Escalator impact

• Service Drives Value

• Legacy Benefits

• Committed to Pricing for Returns

16

Continued Pricing Gains

Reported Core Price (Including RCAF Fuel Impact)

Price Excluding RCAF Fuel Impact

Annual Price Improvement

2006 2007 2008 2009

7%

4.5%

6%6%6.5% 5.5%

5%5.5%

Operational Excellence

2006 2007 2008 2009

7983

88

72

69

76

84

92

Service Delivery Index (Including Earlies)

Customer Satisfaction Index

Page 9: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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Flexible and Efficient Cost Structure

Operating Expenses*(In Billions)

7-Day Carloadings(In Thousands)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2009

146

143

157

161

$2.7

$2.5

$2.6 $2.6

-7.4%

+4.0% Flat

-2.1%

+9.8%

+2.5%

*Operating expenses are normalized for First Quarter 2009 fuel price per gallon. See Union Pacific website under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.

18

Committed to Improved ProfitabilityLow 70’s Operating Ratio Expected by 2012

• Safety Records

• Excellent Operations

• Ongoing Pricing Gains

• Project Operating Ratio

Expect Strong Operating Leverage in 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009

81.5

79.3

77.376.0

Operating Ratio(%)

Page 10: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

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Question and Answer Session