j.p. morgan aviation, transportation & defense conferencemar 09, 2010 · j.p. morgan aviation,...
TRANSCRIPT
J.P. MorganAviation, Transportation & Defense
Conference
Mark Donegan
Chairman & CEO March 9, 2010
Forward-Looking Statements Information included within this presentation describing projected growth and future results and events
constitutes forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995. Actual results in future periods may differ materially from the forward-looking statements
because of a number of risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to fluctuations in the aerospace,
power generation, and general industrial cycles; the relative success of the Company’s entry into new
markets; competitive pricing; the financial viability of the Company’s significant customers; the impact on
the Company of customer labor disputes; demand, timing, and market acceptance of new commercial and
military programs; the availability and cost of energy, materials, supplies, and insurance; the cost of
pension benefits and post-retirement medical benefits; equipment failures; relations with the Company’s
employees; the Company’s ability to manage its operating costs and to integrate acquired businesses in an
effective manner; governmental regulations and environmental matters; risks associated with international
operations and world economies; the relative stability of certain foreign currencies; the impact of adverse
weather or natural disasters; the availability and cost of financing; and implementation of new technologies
and process improvement. Any forward-looking statements should be considered in light of these factors.
The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly release any forward-looking information to reflect
anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of this document.
Baseline → Wyman-Gordon interconnect pipe
Building Strength In Power Markets
Coal-Fired Plant Schematic
BOILER
Feed Water
Pumps
Feed Water Pipes STEAM
TURBINEMain Steam Pipes
Hot Reheat Steam Pipes
Boiler Island Turbine Island
Interconnecting Pipe Schematic
Dominant market position worldwide
Advantages of inner diameter controlled pipe
Better predictability of pressure drops/flow in system
Reduced weight and pipe hanger loads
Reduced welding costs
Advanced alloys → P91/P92 high chrome carbon steel
Higher temperatures → greater efficiencies
Niche market
One of the three manufacturers for 600MW plants
~ $5M interconnect pipe per plant
One of two manufacturers for 1,000MW plants
~ $9M interconnect pipe per plant
Baseline → Wyman-Gordon interconnect pipe
Building Strength In Power Markets
Recognized leader in Ultra Supercritical power plants
Higher efficiencies
Lower CO2 emissions
Additional market opportunities
Nuclear projects
Qualified with Westinghouse and Areva
Large refineries
Petrochemical projects
Cont’d
Solid Market Position
BUT
Walking Away From $1 Billion Boiler Pipe Market
Baseline → Wyman-Gordon interconnect pipe
Building Strength In Power Markets
Building Strength In Power Markets
Green field operation
Massive capital investment
Extensive construction time
Rigorous, long-term qualifications
Partnership with existing manufacturer
Strong market position
Solid production capabilities
Well-developed skill set
Strategic Options
Building Strength In Power Markets
One of the largest boiler pipe manufacturers in China
Significant share of Chinese boiler market ~ $2.5M boiler pipe per 600MW plant ~ $6.0M boiler pipe per 1,000MW plant
Focus on smaller diameters/shorter lengths/lower alloys
Specific cut lengths required for boiler applications
Expertise in carbon steel and low chromes (P11/P22)
Capacity to manufacture larger diameters
Modern, well-run facility
Proprietary manufacturing processes
Significant cost advantages
Extensive product portfolio
Good customer relationships
Additional benefits
Cold drawing bench Final process required for 9 ⅝” downhole pipe Special Metals access to $200M oil & gas market over next two years
Further upside in out years
Cost-effective source for Hackney Ladish input stock
Chengde Boiler Pipe
Building Strength in Power Markets
PCC Contributions
Wyman-Gordon worldwide name recognition
Access to export markets
Quality control
Shared best practices
Productivity
Process control
Inventory
Scrap and rework
Complete package of interconnect pipe, boiler pipe, and fittings to marketplace
Chengde Boiler Pipe
$3-3.5 Billion Market Opportunity Over Next Five Years7-10% Annual Market Growth
Current End Market Activity
Aerospace
Slow OEM recovery Q4 FY10 through Q2 FY11
Large structural castings
Cannon-Muskegon aerospace alloy
Wyman-Gordon aerospace forgings (non-aftermarket)
Aerospace airfoils (non-aftermarket)
Fastener OEM direct ~ 50% of aerospace sales
Continued mismatch with aircraft build rates
Alignment by Q3 FY11
Flat aftermarket orders
Zero growth through Q2 FY11 Airfoils Wyman-Gordon
Accelerated order rate expected in second half of FY11
Using Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Current End Market Activity, cont’d
Aerospace
Flat fastener distribution sales
No growth through Q2 FY11
~ 50% of aerospace sales
Anticipated schedule recovery in second half of FY11
787 activity
Inventory already in place for initial production aircraft Estimate of 15-20 aircraft/engine shipsets
Production ramp-up by Q3 FY11 Schedules currently being loaded in to support higher rates
Continued progress at Carlton Forge
Using Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Carlton Forge Progress Report Aerospace market share opportunities clearly identified
Currently only 25-30% of $1B aerospace market
Penetration of low pressure turbine disc market
Plan of attack to further penetrate power market
Continued integration of new operational tools/methods
Daily focus on cost reductions
Rich revert stream
On track for:
Target synergies
► 12-16 months → $15-20M
► 22-26 months → $35-40M
10%+ CAGR
Current End Market Activity, cont’d
Aerospace
Flat fastener distribution sales
No growth through Q2 FY11
~ 50% of aerospace sales
Significant schedule recovery anticipated in second half of FY11
787 activity
Inventory already in place for initial production aircraft Estimate of 15-20 aircraft/engine shipsets
Production ramp-up by Q3 FY11 Schedules currently being loaded in to support higher rates
Continued progress at Carlton Forge
Growing position on the right aircraft programs
Using Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Continued Major Presence in Aerospace Markets
A320
A330
767
747-8
777
A380
A340
747-400
787
737
$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8$ Millions
PCC $ Content Per Aircraft Platform
Data points represent average dollar content
F-35
F-18
C-17
$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5$ Millions
PCC $ Content Per Military Aircraft Platform
Data points represent average dollar content
Continued Major Presence in Aerospace Markets
Future Share Gains On All Fronts
Sales Upside – Areas of Opportunity
Active development programs
A350
Airframe
Trent XWB
Next generation engines
CFM56 LEAP
Geared turbofan
V2500 select
F136 engine
KC-X tanker (airframe/engine)
Current End Market ActivityUsing Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Power
IGT
Destocking at European customers holding steady
Aftermarket still a “wild card”
Growing presence on high-tech platforms
Data points represent average dollar content
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
Older Generation Current Generation Next Generation
70-275MW50/60Hz
50Hz
Middle East
China
Russia
Africa
Europe
Japan
60Hz
Middle East
South America
North America
Japan
235-330MW50/60Hz
38-190MW50/60Hz
Ave
rag
e S
ale
s P
er
Tu
rbin
e($
Mil
lio
ns
)
Continued Major Presence in IGT Markets
PCC Casting $ Content Per IGT Class
9 Production Engines
~ $16K ~ $1.4M
14 Production Engines~ $160K ~ $3.5M
4 Production Engines~ $350K ~ $5M+
IGT Technology
Current End Market ActivityUsing Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Power
IGT
Destocking at European customers holding steady
Aftermarket still a “wild card”
Growing presence on high-tech platforms
Seamless Pipe
China Current realignment to new power plant strategy
• Movement away from smaller coal plants• 300MW plant → ~ $2M interconnect pipe opportunity
Burning through inventory on hand Three+ quarters of slower order rates at Wyman-Gordon
Strategic transition to Super Critical power plants by Q3 FY11 Greater interconnect pipe opportunity
• 600MW plant → ~ $5M • 1,000MW plant → ~ $9M
Current End Market Activity, cont’d
Power
Seamless Pipe India
Significant quoting activity• 20 projects in 600MW range
Orders anticipated in second half FY11
Oil & Gas
Order books filling up going forward 1-2% sequential growth
Substantial pickup in order activity Projects scheduled for second half FY11
General Industrial
Continued upward trend → 1-2% sequentially
Steckel mill back in production → mid-February
Using Q3 FY10 as a Baseline
Summary
Slow recovery through Q2 FY11
Major catalysts for second half FY11 growth
Realignment with current aircraft build rates
787 production ramp-up
Accelerated aerospace aftermarket and fastener distribution schedules
Stabilized IGT order rates
Seamless pipe upside in China and India
Increased oil & gas project activity
Positioning the Company for Strong Second Half FY11 Sales Growth and Continued Upside in Operational Performance
Questions
Mark DoneganChairman & CEO