john barton ukes nov 2015 v3

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High-Temporal-Resolution Analysis of UK Power System Used to Determine the Optimal Amount and Mix of Energy Storage Technologies John Barton, [email protected] Murray Thomson, [email protected] Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST), Loughborough University

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Page 1: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

High-Temporal-Resolution Analysis of UK Power System Used to Determine the Optimal Amount

and Mix of Energy Storage Technologies

John Barton, [email protected] Murray Thomson, [email protected]

Centre for Renewable Energy Systems Technology (CREST),

Loughborough University

Page 2: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Uncontrolled Generation

WindWaveTidal

Solar PVCHP

Electricity Demand

Electric Vehicles Heat Pumps,

Appliances etc.Domestic,

Commercial and Industrial

∑ = net demand

Balancing:Storage

InterconnectorTime shifting Curtailment

Non-electric fuel use

TotalUK CO2

Emissions

Dispatchable generation

∑ = National fuel demand

Merit OrderOf Generators

+ _

Overview of FESA, “Future Energy Scenario Analysis”

Page 3: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

The Future Need for Energy Storage:Steeper Load-Duration Curves

Page 4: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

DECC 2050 Calculator – (e.g. High Renewables)

Page 5: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

DECC 2050 Calculator (Higher Renewables Scenario)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Net

Dem

and

in G

W

Page 6: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

‘Thousand Flowers’ Low-Carbon Pathway in 205012 days of surplus, 10 days of deficit, 2 days surplus

2500GWh of surplus

1500GWh of shortfall

Storage needed

Page 7: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Costs of Electricity Generation

Baseload and renewables: High capital cost but ‘free’ running costs

Fuel costs: £16/MWhe for CCS, £23/MWhe for peak gas-fired plant

Carbon price: £76/tonne of CO2 equivalent Peak gas plant 460kg/MWhe

CCS plant 50kg/MWhe

Value of Lost Load (DECC & Ofgem) £16,940/MWhe !

Page 8: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Marginal Costs of Generation (1)

Page 9: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Marginal Costs of Generation (2)

Value of los load (VOLL) is not really helpful in determining economic optimum despatch most of the time

Page 10: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

3 Thresholds of Storage

Lost Load(Storage ReplacesPeak Generation)

Low Carbon Fossil Fuel (CCS)

Baseload (RenewablesAnd Nuclear)

0Time(Hours)

Net

Ele

ctric

ity D

eman

d, G

W

Peak PlantFossil Fuel (CCGT)

Use peak generation to avoid loss of load

Use low carbon to displace high carbon

Use baseload to displace low carbon

Page 11: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

3 Thresholds of Storage

0Time(Hours)

Net

Ele

ctric

ity D

eman

d, G

W

• Perfect forecasting• Economically optimum• Reference levels of

demand are at thresholds.• Minimum generation to

avoid more expensive generation

Page 12: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Store Sizing with Real Demand Data

Move the ceiling down.Increasing power, P = peak generation savedCalculate the energy capacity, E = store capacity

Page 13: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Ratio of energy Capacity to Power (GWh/GW)(High Renewables Scenario)

Large Energy CapacityBut Usefulness is LimitedBy Power RatingOf Store

Large Power RatingBut Store Spends Too Much TimeFull or Empty

Page 14: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Ratio of energy Capacity to Power (GWh/GW)

Inter-Seasonal Storage => Fuel Storage

Peak Lopping.Flexible Demand?

Intermediate Timescales:

Daily, weekly, Monthly, Weather

Page 15: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Value of Storage vs. Store Power

Page 16: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Value of Storage vs. Storage Capacity

1500

GW

h

Page 17: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Capital Costs Per Power and Energy for Energy Storage

Page 18: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Size of Storage and Appropriate Technology by Application

Batteries for Short-Term

Thermal Energy Storage for up to about 2 days

CAES for weather-related variation

On time up to 2 weeks

Hydrogen for

Inter-seasonal

Page 19: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Ratio of energy Capacity to Power (GWh/GW)(High Renewables Scenario)

ΔGW

ΔGWhLower gradient at small storage volumes, suitable for a short-term of storage technology

ΔGW

ΔGWhHigher gradient at larger volumes, suitable for a longer-term storage technology

Page 20: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Solution is Multiple Stores Working TogetherHeat / Cold Compressed Air Hydrogen

Peak of each curve is the economic optimum level of storage

Page 21: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Storage Power

Page 22: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Optimum Storage Energy Capacity

Page 23: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Components of Value of Energy Storage

Page 24: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Energy Storage Cycle Time vs. Weather Predictability

Limit of accurate forecasting: 2 days

Limit of approximate forecasting: 5 days

(Mark Brinkley scenario is an outlier for several reasons)

Page 25: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Modest Improvement in Load Factor of CCS

Page 26: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Reduction in Curtailed Low Carbon Energy at Economically Optimum Level of Energy Storage

Page 27: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Conclusions – Part 1

The need for energy storage is increasing The optimum ratio of GWh/GW (time constant)

increases exponentially with power rating Strong law of diminishing returns with energy

capacity, GWh The cost-effective technologies appear to be

heat/cold storage and Compressed Air (CAES) Storage is cost-effective for cycle times of

approximately 2 to 5 days but no more: Poor Economics of storage technologies Inadequate long-term weather forecasts

Page 28: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Conclusions – Part 2

Energy storage can substantially reduce the following parameters but it is not economically feasible to build enough storage to eliminate them: Curtailed low-carbon energy High carbon peaking generating plant

Energy storage can increase the utilisation factor of fossil-fuelled plant with CCS, but it is not economically feasible to use storage to bring it up to the levels anticipated in the DECC 2050 Calculator Model

Page 29: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Next Steps

Forecasting Errors – How the optimum size, despatch algorithm and value of storage change with imperfect forecasting

Extend FESA to a European model – the optimum role of storage alongside interconnectors

Demand response – where (in timescale) does DR finish and storage begin?

Alternative supply scenarios – more electricity generation mixes, e.g. from ETI, Shell, UKERC

Page 30: John barton ukes nov 2015 v3

Cost of Storage with Increasing Timescales

BatteriesUp to 1 hour

Above-GroundHeat or Cold(?)Storage,Or FlowBatteriesUp to 12 hours

CAES &PumpedHydroUp to 2 weeks

Hydrogen& Fuels