iub change
TRANSCRIPT
The world is rapidly changing….. !!! ???
Islamic University BahawalpurNovember 2011
Hartmut Wellerdt
Pakistan´s Ranking 2007 – 2009 in Global Competition*
2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009
Rank
out of
83
122
92
131
101
134
Comparison: Ghana 102 Senegal 100 Germany 3
* Global Competition Report (GCR) of the World Economic Forum 2009 CSF Competitiveness Support Fund, www.competitiveness.org.pk
The Most Problematic Factors for DoingBusiness in Pakistan*
1. Government instability / coups
2. Corruption
3. Inefficient government bureaucracy
4. Inflation
5. Inadequate supply of infrastructure
6. Inadequately educated workforce
7. Policy instability
8. Access to financing
9. Crime and theft
10. Poor work ethic in national labor force
* acc. to GCR Executive Opinion Survey as experienced by the country´s top business representatives
What is change ?
Change is the coping process of moving
from a present state to a desired future state.
Change (cont.)
Individuals, groups, and organisations undertake change in response to dynamic internal and external factors that alter current realities, presenting opportunities as well
as threats.
- Demography and Society
- Cultural Environment
- Economic Environment
- Political / Legal Environment
What are the indicators and implications ?
What is changing ?
The External and Internal
Forces for Change
Demographic Characteristics*Age *Education* Skill level *Gender* Immigration Technological Advancements* Manufacturing automation* Office automation Market Changes* Mergers and acquisitions* Domestic and international competition* Recession Social and Political Pressures*War *Values* Leadership
External Forces
Human Resource Problems/Prospects*Unmet needs *Job dissatisfaction*Productivity *Participation/*Absenteeism and suggestions turnover
Managerial Behaviour/Decisions* Conflict * Leadership* Reward systems * Structural
reorganization
Internal Forces
The need for change
Demography and Society
• 12 % growth in world population from year 2000 to 2010 - of this total growth 96 % will be from the developing world
- 25 % from Africa- 62 % from Asia
- 10 % from Latin America
• Decline of EUR population minus 1,1 % - Italy from 57,5 mio to 45 mio by 2100 - Germany from 80 mio to 68 mio
• Need for International Immigration - Germany needs to import half a mio immigrants a year to keep the working-age population stable up to 2050 at current birth and death rates
Demography and Society cont‘d
• Affluence
Germany Pakistan
Money rich / Time rich 5 % ?
Money rich / Time poor 45 % ?
Money poor / Time rich 30 % ?
Money poor / Time poor 20 % ?
- Time/ Money classification is important dimension for product choice- Widening gap between haves and have- nots
- throughout EUR 20% of households regard social transfers as the
only source of household income
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Age related trends
- demography is DEAD ! Marketing and media planning „ by the numbers“ is obsolete
- life stage, not chronology; age determins less
- movement to keep young(er); stay young at heart, at least
- Marketers must tailor content to people with common priorities and purchasing patterns: that means clusters, not demographic segments
- Childhood getting shorter; youth period longer ( „Kidults“ )
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Age related trends
- Teenagers: a global group with many common traits ( music, fashion…)
- Teens like innovative and original brands
- Baby boomers very concerned about health and well-being; most concerned about environmental issues and mistrustful of Multinationals
- ageing population is the dominant force of all EUR countries and Japan
- western seniors are healthier, wealthier, more numerous, and live longer BUT: 8 out of 10 of the staff in advertising and marketing are below 40
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Age related trends
- France, working after 60 has been exceptional
- Netherlands, only 20 % of those 60 – 64 are in work
- Germany, purchasing power of seniors is 30% above that of people younger than 50; and they spend more
- older getting younger; they do not „behave their age“
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Age related trends
- pressures on pension systems and social security systems ( life expectancy )
- the country with the highest proportion of over-60 citizens in 2020 will be Japan ( 31 % ) followed by Italy, Greece and Switzerland
- longevity mainly due to mastering on infectious deseases, not to mastering aging
Source : Institute of Population Problems - "Future Population Projections" (May, 1997)
... there will be more people in Japan
over 80 years of age than there
will be children under 10 years of age.
By 2025By 2025
The situation will be similar in manyEuropean countries,
e.g. Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Spain
Population " Pyramid"
Switzerland
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
2000
300 200 100 0 100 200 300
0 - 410 - 1420 - 2430 - 3440 - 4450 - 5460 - 6470 - 7480 - 8490 - 94100 +
1910
300300 200 100 0 100 200
ThousandsThousands Thousands
1970
Men Women
Age Range
Source : Office Fédéral de la Statistique 2002
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Evolution in the structure of family
- a new type of family is emerging due to factors like birth rates, more working women…
- the average EUR household size has fallen from 3.2 to 2.7 in the last 15 years
- 40 % of all EUR families have no children at all; just 5 % have 3 or more
- increased longevity is leading to a „vertical family“; more generations in a family
- growing divorce rate in the western world
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Evolution in the structure of family
- more working women/ dual income households- female employment all over EUR rose steadily to 60 % ( 2009 )- women are increasingly financially independent
- working patterns changing ( week-end, night, at home…)
- Men are more brand conscious than women ( acc. to a US- study )
- attitudes towards the influence of minority groups ( immigrants ) differ widely
- very positive in the US; negative in parts of the EU
Demography and Society ( cont‘d )
• Evolution in the structure of family
- the muslim population is growing in EUR and North America
- UK ethnic community much younger than the white population and well educated - US minorities rapid growth
- by 2030, US „minorities“ are expected to outnumber the „majority“- the US will have the second largest Spanish speaking population in the world- by 2050, 50% of the US population will be „ non-white“
- Decrease of traditional socio- economic segmentation
Health Awareness
- …is a broad term covering concerns like weight/ calories, physical health, nutrition and content of additives, cholesterol, sodium, salt, sugar….
- awareness of health and nutrition increasing - need for fitness activities is growing
- concern about health is often more a female issue
- older baby boomers have become attentive to health awareness
- healthy eating is on the rise
- health awareness is linked to education
- consumers are increasingly expecting detailed labels – even though they often do not read them
December 13 - 19, 2003
OBESITY
An ExpandingProblem
30% of Canadian between 7 - 13 yrs are overweight, 14% are obese
Canadian Medical Association Journal, November 2000
5 - 18% of the Chinese youth are obese
World Health Organisation 2001
Obesity in children grew 17% in France and 200% in the UK in the last ten years
Childhood Obesity
UK National Audit Office, 2002
Obesity Trends in England 1980 - 2010
Pe
rce
nt
Ob
ese
( B
MI
> 3
0 )
10
15
20
25
30
5
0
1980 1985 1990 200520001995 2010
Women
Men
Health awareness ( cont‘d )
• Obesity
- 61 % of American adults are either overweight or obese
- Britain has become one of the fattest nations in EUR - over the last 20 years, the proportion of overweight children has increased by more than 50 % and the number of „extremely“ obese children has doubled ( the condition is often inherited )
- obesity is becoming a global problem
- many countries face the double burden of under- nutrition and over- nutrition
- acc. to a Boston University report ( 2005 ), Fat lowers a man‘s IQ !
Health awareness ( cont‘d )
• Vegetarians
- vegetarianism is both rising in profile and gaining popularity among a wide consumer base
- motives for meat reduction: health, ethnics, and the environment - vegetarianism often because of religion
- true vegetarianism is heavily concentrated in the younger age groups
- about one-third of U.S. teenagers think that being a vegetarian is „in“ ( acc. to American Dietetic Ass. )
Health awareness ( cont‘d )
• Sensory trends for Food & Drink
- simple ( salt ) complex ( herbal salt ); BRANDING !!
- preserved fresh
- artificial nature ( „organic“ and „all nature“ )
- hot cold ( carbonated soft drinks replacing coffee )- cold drinks with a healthy image are growing fastest ( mineral water )
- bland spicy ( ethnic food help drive this )
- deep frying grilling or steaming
Faster Time
- high levels of stress
- increasing time pressure ( Internet )
- quantity and quality of time declining - traffic congestion - flexible working hours - out-of-town work and shopping - need for continuous education - anxieties about crime
- intrusiveness of mobile phone, pagers…..
- 24 hours opening ( late night shopping )
- meal in car; „dashboard dining“
- take away meals ( 55% of US restaurant meals ordered are take away )
Environmental Awareness
concern about the environment has become an issue to an increasing proportion of the population. The change from a minority, radical, political interest to a widespread self- interest has happened, or will in virtually all countries.
- pressure should be expected from legislation; pre- empt !
- the environmental debate has moved towards sustainable development- climate change protection through energy conservation
- greenhouse gas reduction ( Kyoto Protocol )
- Packaging in question ( ongoing trend towards convenience and FF )
- environmental awareness is linked to age, education, and gender
Media and Brand Communication
The future of the media landscape is difficult to predict
- N.Negroponte 1995 confidently stated the demise of television by the year 2000, everyone would use the Internet instead
- Forrester predicted US$ 8 billion spent on interactive TV in 2002, rising to US$ 48 billion in 2005; reality was 7.5 billion in 2005
- people are the drivers of change, social context is fundamental for understanding what the future might hold
- all media ( from traditional print to www ) play an important role in the development of global culture. While local channels often dominate, the content is often foreign, often American
Media and Brand Communication
- Media choice grows exponentially – media time for the consumer stays the same
- TV will continue to be a major medium, but audiences are fragmenting
- newspaper screen versions will continue to replace paper
- text messaging has become a very important medium; esp. for children and young adults
- esp. In Asia, advertisers are using SMS as an advertising medium
- outdoor media is universally enjoyed esp. targeting young people
- e- learning is common in schools and universities
Media and Brand Communication
- e- commerce / online shopping is working better than ever ( e-Bay…)
- Internet is a mass medium; first accessing the affluent and the young
- Internet has changed the way we live our lives; the Internet promotes and facilitates diversity
- Internet as a source of information before making a purchase
- consumers increasingly avoid ads („Marketing by interrupting people“)
- TV and Internet advertising seen as the most intrusive
- Consumers are paying greater attention to a company‘s „total corporate profile“: environmental practices, work-place practices, ethics, transparency….
The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities
Pakistan has enormous economic potential which in the presence of the right policies and conditions can deliver a generation of high and sustainable growth necessary to address all social and infrastructure development challenges facing the country
Pakistan has a unique geo- strategic location ( Gwadar Port )
Pakistan has a young and large workforce ( 45 % is employed in the rural agricultural sector ), and immensely rich natural resources
Challenges: + the realization of high economic growth will depend on
greater liberalization, deregulation and privatization
The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities ( cont‘d.)
+ translating economic recovery into high and sustainable growth will depend on ensuring an enabling environment for investment and entrepreneurship – with the state to act as facilitator of growth by ensuring good governance and effective institutions
+ one of the key hurdles hindering the true realization of Pakistan‘s full economic potential is the recurrence of political volatility as well as worsening of the law and order and security situation
+ prepare an educated and skilled labor force
+ close the gender gap in education and jobs ( female workers only comprise 20 % of the total workforce )
+ get inflation under control
The Economy of Pakistan:Challenges and Opportunities ( cont‘d.)
+ the rising tide of terrorism and extremism is providing to be the real stumbling block constraining the exploitation of Pakistan‘s true economic potential
+ power outages not only disrupt social life but also levy heavy financial losses on industries and their international competitiveness
+ Pakistan‘s export base needs rapid product and market diversification.
It needs to move away from traditional, less sophisticated exports to those driven by innovation, sophisticated technology and value- addition in order to be competitive in the international market
The combination of internal and external growth impedimentswill continue to challenge the economy of Pakistan in the short- to mid- term scenario