investment decision making between games workshop and hornby finance essay

8/20/2019 Investment Decision Making Between Games Workshop and Hornby Finance Essay

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Investment Decision Making Between Games Workshop And Hornby Finance Essay

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#he basis $or this analysis is to advise Mr! %"rry on an investment! #he client has a

h"ge port$olio o$ shares and has recently inherited a big s"m o$ cash which he also

wishes to invest in shares! He has a broad port$olio o$ shares& b"t not that so"nd

eno"gh when it comes to games retailing sector! 'o the a"thor over here looks at

s"ggesting the client & to invest in one o$ the $ollowing companies namely Games

Work 'hop gro"p ()% * Hornby ()%! #o make it $"rther e$$ective& the a"thor has

considered the last three year+s $inancial statements o$ both the companies instead o$

,"st deciding on one $inancial statement! #he $inancial analysis e-"ipment was made

"se o$& in order to compare between the companies which are e.plained in the

statement! Event"ally& the a"thor benchmarked it with the ind"stry in which they are

present by gathering in$ormation $rom vario"s so"rces available on the web& books&

and ,o"rnals! /ltimately& necessary recommendations have been made along with

some vital meas"res to be taken be$ore making a spec"lation!

2.COMPANIES PROFILE:-

Games Workshop gro"p ()%0 It is basically a largest and s"ccess$"l gaming company

which was $o"nd in 1234 by 5ohn (eake and Ian )iving 'tone ! It is a prod"ction *

retailing company which is located in )ondon! It has introd"ced a 'tock E.change in

1226! It was originally a man"$act"re o$ a wooden board $or ames s"ch as back

Gammon! Mancala& 7ine Mend+s Morris and G8 games b"t later became an importer

o$ /nited 'tated o$ America role9(laying games namely D"ngeons * Dragons!

%ompany+s over all :4; sales operations is coming $rom /'A & %anada

&France&'pain&Italy&5apan& Germany * A"stralia ???9>?1?@

Hornby ()%0 It is basically a toy company which is abrand leader $or /+s railway

hobby model! Fo"nder Frank Hornby started his company in < 1:C912C@ and

company got patent rights in 12?1&a$ter that they establishment o$ Meccano )td in

12?3& th"s it became one o$ the classic toys!Meccano )td that was taken over by )ines

Bros


2/23

have made some changes $or the privatiation o$ ailways! Hornby introd"ced $irst

commercially prod"ced +??+ ga"ge live steam locomotive in year >??C& company+s

e.pands range& more than :4? c"rrent items! %ompany position held $or more than

4? years as Britain+s leading model railway man"$act"rer company!??@

3.FINANCIAL ANALYSIS:-

It wo"ld be via $inancial tools to help "s meas"re "p to the per$ormance and do +#IE+

benchmarking to "nderstand the improved per$ormer o$ the two! Horiontal and

ertical analysis is $ollowed by ratios! where +#IE+ is benchmarking wo"ld be

compare the companies

# 9#rend

I 9Ind"stry

E 9E.pectation

3.1.COMMON-SIZE STATEMENTS:-

In common sie statements are generally +Horiontal analysis compares+ the

presentation o$ a company with its own historical data to recognie how the $inancial

statement things change over time ??201:@! 7ow a base year is chosen

and all the $inancial statement items are e.pressed as an catalog"e relative to the

base year!It gives a -"ick g"ide to speci$ic trends o$ an individ"al item??03?:@! With three years $inancial statements& this is carried o"t $or

Games work 'hop (lc and Hornby ()% so that the company+s trend is "nderstood!

ertical analysis is carried o"t on one year+s statement! #he entire items in the

$inancial statement is e.pressed in comparison with a selected $ig"re in the

statement


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ratios can be considered as shown in the appendi. b"t we are going to consider the

key ratios o$ the $inancial per$ormance& c"rrent $inancial position and the

shareholder+s ret"rn and the related ratios "nder each are09

Financial (er$ormance

(ro$itability atio!

E$$iciency atio!

%"rrent Financial (osition

)i-"idity atio!

Gearing atio!

'hareholder et"rn

8E8'F

#'

Financial ratios analsis#his section will critically demonstrate and analye the $inancial health and

per$ormance o$ the two companies in term o$ its pro$itability& li-"idity& e$$iciency&

gearing& investment by comparing trends o$ those ratios as well as looking in deep

insight o$ $inancial $ig"res between the two companies over three $inancial years!

Basically& investors are most concerned abo"t their investment ret"rn and risk!

Based on this sense& we have chosen those mentioned ratios to analysis and e.plain

these two companies+ investment val"e& and also ,"sti$ications o$ why they areimportant to eval"ate also are provided with each ratio! Among those& pro$itability

and investment ratios& nevertheless& will be mainly $oc"sed $or the investment

analysis and decision making!

1. Pro!ita"ilit Ratios:

(ro$itability ratios are the most important ratios to investors in any given ind"stry&

beca"se it simply shows how m"ch pro$it the company has earned over years& does it

achieve satis$actory level to investors& banks& and shareholders compared to that o$


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its competitor or the ind"stry! Also by drilling down into $ig"res& pro$itability ratios

can also tell how e$$icient and e$$ective company cond"cts its b"siness reso"rces and

operation activities s"ch as sales& prod"ction or other cost9cons"med ones!

#his section will e.amine the reasons why the pro$itability o$ GWB is growing

"pward contrary to that o$ HB thro"gh years& why even generating large sales in

>?? ??2 and >?1?! ?? to

>?1?0 8%E& 8' and A#

(#scri"#:

As seen in the graph0

#he 8%E o$ GWG is "pward& and that o$ HB however is downward $or the C

$inancial years!

Both A# o$ GWG and HB are slightly downward& however the ratio o$ GWG

!CC@ is at higher level than that o$ HB


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'ince 8%E is e-"al by A# times 8'& and A# o$ both companies seems to stay

"nchanged& the signi$icant changes in 8%E between them largely depends on the

$l"ct"ations o$ their 8' ratios

Act"ally& a signi$icant increase in 8%E o$ GWG is as a res"lt o$ an increase in its8' and a signi$icant decrease in 8%E o$ HB is as a res"lt o$ a decrease in its 8'

Also& the average A# o$ GWG $or C years is 1!4 times as m"ch as that o$ HB means the

greater e$$ectiveness o$ "sing its assets to generate reven"es $or GWG over HB!

8nce again& beca"se 8' is e-"al by (BI# 'ales& and the 'ales o$ both companies

slightly increase in appro.imately same proportion @ nearly one $o"rth to HB+s in >??!

GWG

>?1?

>??2

>??

'ales

1>:&411

1>4&3?:

11?&C64

increase

114;


6/23

116;

1??;

HB

>?1?

>??2

>??

'ales

:6&3C:

:1&4:2

44&:2>

increase

11:;

111;

1??;

(ro$it is there$ore meas"red as the di$$erence between 'ales and 8peration E.penses!

8peration E.penses and %8G' are the key reasons $or two companies+ per$ormance

di$$erences0

*+*

>?1?

>??2

>??

8E

11?&6::


7/23

11:&33C

1?3&32C

decrease

1?>!6;

1?!CC;

1??!??;

,

>?1?

>??2

>??

8E

4&3C>

46&:3?

6:&C?:

Increase

1>:!C;

11!?:;

1??!??;

Co&nt:

#here are two reverse pict"res o$ b"siness per$ormance between the two companies0

GWB has improved progressively& HB has not!


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GWG m"st do something right in its cost strategies $rom >?? to >??2 and >?1? and

vice versa $or HB!

#o simpli$y& the reasons o$ positive changes $or GWB+s pro$itability and negative

changes $or HB+s are mostly ill"strated by the diagram below0

%8G'

$alls

8E

$alls

(BI#

increases

(ro$itability

Increases

8%E

increases

8'

increases

'ales slightly increases

Diagram ill"strated the $inancial ratio $actors that make the positive increase inpro$itability o$ GWG over C years!

9 #he e$$icient way o$ cost management in GWB thro"gh C years has lead the

red"ction o$ its %8Gs and 8peration E.penses& along with the slightly increase in

sales which together res"lts in the increase in 8'& 8%E ratios and $inally the

pro$itability!

9 By the same way& the ine$$icient way o$ cost management in HB has made it less

pro$itability per$ormance than it did in previo"s years!


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*+*

21

2/

20

*+*

21

2/

20

%8G'

C?&:C

C4&212

C>&2:

'ales

1>:&411

1>4&3?:

11?&C64

Decrease

2C!>3;

1?2!12;

1??!??;


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increase

114;

116;

1??;

,

21

21

21

,

21

21

21

%8G'

C>&:C:

C>&1:

>:&>23

'ales

:6&3C:

:1&4:2

44&:2>

Increase


11/23

1>6!11;

1>>!CC;

1??!??;

increase

11:;

111;

1??;

7et pro$it Margin


12/23

>!?6 in >?1?! HB has $l"ct"ated $rom high level ??& b"t

declining considerably to 1!6 in >??2& and recovering dramatically at >!11 in >?1?!

)i-"id ratios have shown the similar trends to the previo"s ratios between two

companies beca"se it is c"rrent ratio b"t ded"cts inventory asset which is not alwayseasily to t"rn into cash! As a matter o$ $act& e.cl"ding inventory makes li-"id ratios o$

GWB become relatively higher than those o$ HB& which means GWB has done better

in term o$ inventory strategies over HB! GWB+s inventory has been kept as a

consistent level over C years aro"nd 1?!C?? accompanied with the increase in total

assets which makes the relative proportion between inventory and total asset getting

smaller hence higher li-"id ratio!

While HB+s inventory has been $l"ct"ated ??& 16!C: in >??2& 1>!>3C in>?1?@ and by the same way $inally makes that proportion become bigger and hence

lower li-"id ratio!

,

21

2/

20

Inventory

1>&>3C

16&C:

11&2?

%"rrent Asset

3405

2030

23601

(roportion


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C6!4;

41!>6;

4?!>1;

*+

21

2/

20

Inventory

1?&1C

1?&:3

1?&C2>

%"rrent Asset

3551

31234

2/32

(roportion

>:!2;

C6!12;

C4!66;

(roportion o$ inventory over total c"rrent assets $or Games Workshop Gro"p

()c


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#he di$$erent pict"re has been seen in %ash ratio when GWB has shown a m"ch

higher ability to pay its short term loans in immediate cash than HB! #his implies

greater risks $or HB in the b"siness when it needs cash to cover other operational

e.penses

3. E!!ici#nc ratios:

E$$iciency ratios eval"ate the ability o$ a company to "tilie and manage vario"s

reso"rces! In the previo"s section& A# has been assessed to see how GWB "se its

assets more e$$iciently to generate reven"es than HB!

'peci$ically& Fi.ed Assets #"rnover ratio meas"res how e$$iciently a company "ses its

$i.ed assets to generate its sales! #he higher is the ratio& the better! #he high ratio

means the company has less money tied "p in $i.ed assets $or each po"nd generated

and the declining ratio indicates that company has over invested in $i.ed assets s"ch

as plant& machinery& etcJ

In the chart& the increasing ratios o$ GWB $or C years clearly show the e$$icient

"tiliation o$ its $i.ed assets0 >!2 ??& C!>C in >??2 and C!C1 in >?1?! 8n

the contrary& HB has the declining and lower ratios over C years0 >!: in >??& >!?:

in >??2& >!>4 in >?1?!

#h"s& HB has per$ormed less e$$iciently "sing $i.ed assets to generate sales than

GWB!

'tock t"rnover period meas"res $or how long inventories are being hold or how well

a company can manage its stock level! #he lower period is the ratio& the better! It can

also help company improve its sales and li-"idity per$ormance! 8nce again& as

analyed in the pro$itability ratios& GWB has per$ormed better than HB in term o$

inventory and %8G's! GWB keeps its consistent lower inventory level while red"cing

cost o$ goods sold to ma.imie its pro$its!

In the chart& however in >?1?& the period o$ GWB is getting higher to 1>1 days&

compared to the previo"s years0 1?2 days in >??2 and 11C days in >??& while HB

has red"ced this period over C years0 $rom 1:: days in >??& to 1:6 days in >??2 and

1C days in >?1?!

(#"tors %#rio'


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Debtors (eriod is one o$ most important ratios re$lected the ability o$ a company to

collect debts $rom its credit c"stomers! I$ the period is high& a company will $ace

di$$ic"lty to -"ickly withdraw its $inance to invest in its b"siness operations! It can be

seen that GWB+s period is m"ch better !4 times lower@ than HB+s& while GWB only

needs averagely C? days to take its debts back and this periods tend to decrease& HB

normally needs more than 3? days and this ratios seem not to positively change!

. Cr#'itors P#rio'

%reditors period& on the other hand& meas"res $or how long company have to pay $or

its s"ppliers! #he higher period is the ratio& the better beca"se it can keep cash longer

and p"sh the $inance risk to its s"ppliers! GWB+s period is still better and 1!: times

longer than HB+s $or the C years& means the press"re o$ GWB to pay money back toits s"pplier is smaller than the other!

6. Ca%ital 7#arin7:

%apital gearing ratio determines how well a company can pay $or its long term loans!

It meas"res the proportion o$ long term loans over total capital employed! #wo

reversed trends have been seen $or the two companies! GWB started at very high rate

o$ C>!>1; in >?? b"t dropped to >>!2; in >??2 and dipped to the lowest ?; in

>?1?& conversely the other started at very low rate o$ ?!66; in >??& b"t climbedsharply to 1!6?; in >??2 and >>!>>; in >?1?! High ratio also indicates the higher

risk o$ HB to pay high interests to banks and the bigger nervo"sness o$ its creditors

on HB+s loans!

5. In8#stnt ratios:

#his is the most important ratio $or the investors and it consists o$ many ratios which

are going to see in detail0 E('& D('& (E


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than it did in previo"s year! It reaches the highest point 6!6 ?1?&

$ollowed by 13!: in >??2 and 9>!6 in >??& a spectac"lar trend $or investors to look

at! %onversely& less pro$itability& th"s less E(' makes HB loose its attractiveness

$rom investors by the downtrend0 2!3: in >?1?& 11!13 in >??2 and 1:!14 in >??!

P9E Ratio

#he (riceearnings ratio is one o$ the most important and controversy ratio that

meas"res o$ the company+s per$ormance ??:0>2@! It represents the

market+s view o$ growth potential o$ the company& its dividend policy and the degree

o$ risk involved in investment! #his indicates the relationship between the earnings

o$ the company and its stock market price!

#he low (E means the company is "nderval"ed and vice versa& hence investors

might p"t their money on those stocks rather than those ??2

and 14!6C in >?1?@ shows its less val"e attractiveness than GWB ?!4 in >??&

16!46 in >??2 and !C in >?1?@ $or years!

However& the higher (E ratio also means the greater o$ the con$idence in $"t"re

earning power o$ the company& HB there$ore has higher market con$idence in stock

increase $or $"t"re! 'tock prices o$ HB is m"ch more $l"ct"ated& and lower than GWB

demonstrates its better probability to increase while GWB+s stock price is very high

and has less space $or share price rising!

#his point will be assessed more in Investment Advice section!

(PS

Another key investment ratio is very "se$"l $or investors to consider is D('

?? and >??2 b"t a very large dividend

proposed >4 ?1? while there were lower dividends paid to HB+s

shareholders $or C years0 !4> in >??& >!3 in >??2 and 4!?6 in >?1?!

5. IN(STRY ANALYSIS:-


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Initially let+s eval"ate the per$ormance o$ the ind"stry they are present in !#he $actors

that are a$$ecting the retailing game ind"stry are as $ollows0

Mar;#t "ac;7ro$n':

#he / traditional toys and games market grew consistently between >??6 and

>??3& b"t recorded a slowdown in sales in >??& which bro"ght the val"e o$ the

market to K>!?2bn!

#he main prod"ct categories in the market are0 in$antpre9school toys and games=

activity toys= o"tdoor and sports toys and games= games and p"les= dolls= action

toys= vehicles= electronic toys= pl"sh toys= and other prod"cts!

M"ltichannel retailing


18/23

?1?@

Co&%#titi8# in'$str #n8ironnt:

%osts rising $or retailers! Highly seasonal retail market!

Growth in Internet sales!

More channels o$ distrib"tion opening& partic"larly s"permarkets and the Internet!

%hallenges $rom to"gher economic conditions and competitors+ $or kids+ time 9

console games and Internet!

# and $ilm plays ma,or role in market!

When the $irm+s $ig"res seem to hit the gro"nd d"e to global economic conditions&

s"rvival seems to be to"gh! 7ow taking this into acco"nt& below $ig"re is plotted

which reveals a $act that Games Workshop Gro"p ()% has a ma.im"m (B# 2!43; as o$ the available year when compared to its close competitors

namely ivid Imagination limited and the Hornby ()% which co"ld only manage to

gain a (B# o$ 1!3?; and 2!43; respectively! #his clearly s"ggests "s that the Games

Workshop Gro"p ()% has been maintaining a decent (B# which event"ally gained

them a strong market share!

#his Leconomic hitL has lead to the $ollowing conse-"ences where&

.

%ons"mers do choosy shopping!

#he demand c"rve $or the val"able goods had gone down!

Mar;#t s=ar#:

'o as a res"lt o$ the above changes that have occ"rred& any given $irm in the market

needs to make necessary changes as $ar as their operations are concerned! #he

comparisons are carried o"t below! However the necessary recommendations will be

made at the end by the report that might possibly remedy the c"rrent scenario!

'o"rce09Fame ?1?@


19/23

In the chart& the Games Workshop Gro"p ()% is known to be the largest and the

most s"ccess$"l tabletop $antasy war games company in the world since it managed

to maintain some respectable n"mbers when compared to the other toy and game

ind"stries!

?1?@!

F$t$r# %ros%#ct an' !or#cast:

T$rno8#r o! 8ario$s To in'$stri#s in t=# .>?23-21@.

'o"rce0 ?1?@

#he above graph shows that #oy ind"stry had reached "p to >&?4? million po"nds in

>??C year& !a$ter that ind"stry t"rnover constantly improved to >&14? million po"nds

in year >??:& in>??3 it reached almost to >&>?? million po"nds! In year >??9>??2

ind"stry t"rnover has been declined below >&?4? million po"nds& beca"se o$

recession e$$ect in market! And i$ we observe in the year >?1? ind"stry t"rnover had

slightly increased and reached as in year >??C which is >&?4?million po"nds!

In $"t"re prospector point o$ view Games work shop Gro"p ()% is doing wellcompare to Hornby ()% even in recession period occ"rred d"ring >??39>??2& and

the 8%E ratio has increased as well compare with pervio"s !I$ we compare with

competitor like Hornby ()% doing well some ratios& b"t some them are lagining

behind with Games workshop ()% !#he 8%E ratio o$ Hornby is declined compare

with pervio"s years!

ising birth rate good news $or market!

'maller average $amily sies& older parents

R#co&n'ation:

#he per$ormances o$ the two companies are "nderstood by analysing their ratios!

Among the ratios which has been calc"lated we have to consider the $ew key points in

order to recommend $or the investment!

We can recommend the investor by taking the key ratios o$ the both companies

which gives a clear idea o$ which company is making more pro$it and low risk! #hese


20/23

are the two important aspects that has to be taken into consideration in order to

choose a better company to invest!

S+OT Analsis:

'W8# analysis o$ Games Workshop ()%0

STREN*,TS

Good ret"rns on capital employed!

Increase in share price!

Gearing ratio is ero in the c"rrent year states that it has low risk!

)argest and the most s"ccess$"l table top $antasy war games company in the world!

+EA>NESS

7o reg"lar dividend to investors!

OPPORTNITIES

ecovering $rom the in$lation it has large scope to e.tend its b"siness globally!

(arents are s"pporting learning thro"gh play so that GW( can "se this as an

opport"nity to increase the b"siness!

Increasing child pop"lation in /!

T,REATS

ecession0 ecession is a h"ge threat $or GW( as it is in a market o$ toys!

%ompetitors0 this is one o$ the threat $or the company as the other companies in the

same ind"stry are also doing well!

'W8# analysis o$ Hornby ()%0

STREN*,TS

)arge prod"ct port$olio!


21/23

Best per$ormance in E"rope despite o$ s"pply problem!

eg"lar payment on dividend!

+EA>NESS

'"pply (roblem

OPPORTNITIES

(rod"ct e.pansion in E"rope markets

)ondon 8lympic Games >?1>

T,REATS

ecession0 'ho"ld be a h"ge threat $or the company c"rrently!

%ompetitors0 this is a threat that the other companies which has entered a$ter the

Hornby are doing well in the market!

In8#stnt a'8ic#:

't"dying the ratios and per$ormance the investment advice to Mr 'tephen %"rry is

given depending on the $ollowing key elements0

$sin#ss P#r!or&anc# R#t$rn on In8#stntc$rr#nt stoc; %ric# tr#n's

A$ter analysing the total $inancial ratios we can concl"de that the Games Workshop

Gro"p ()% is doing better in the b"siness per$ormance than the Hornby ()%! #he

GWB generates more pro$its by selling m"ch more prod"cts and at the same time

reg"lating the inventory stock well to minimise the prod"ction cost& hence they are

more e$$icient to "tilie their b"siness reso"rces and better in cash li-"idity!

#he c"rrent share price o$ Games Workshop ()% is 6>3!4p Date0 1>91191?N which

has an increase o$ :2!4p when it was C6:p Date0C?9491?N while Hornby ()% c"rrent

share price is 14?!4 Date01>91191?N has an increase o$ >6!4p when it was

1>:Date0C19C91?N! #his shows that there is a great increase o$ the share price o$ GW(

than that o$ the Hornby ()% which is very important to any investor to think!


22/23

*as +or;s=o% PLC S=ar# Pric#

6>3!4p /pdated0 1?9119>?1?

http0investing!b"sinessweek!comresearchstockssnapshotsnapshot!aspOtickerPGAW0)7

,orn" PLC S=ar# Pric#:

14?!4( "pdated01?9119>?1?

http0www!hornby!cominvestor9relations

In'$str %ros%#cti8# !inancial #n8ironnt an'co&%#titions

St#%=#ns attit$'# to ris;:

From the investment ratio& there are two di$$erent options $or any investor to

choose ! #hey are0

)ow risk9)ong term investment!

High risk9'hort term investment!

From the above share price charts o$ the two companies it is clear that the GWB

comes "nder the $irst category and the HB comes "nder the second category! We can

,"sti$y this satatement by analysing the (Es o$ the two companies ! when the (E is

low it means that the company is "nderval"ed and vice versa! #he (E o$ GWB and

HB are !C and 14!6C respectilvely! It means that they pay !C po"nds and 14!C

po"nds respectively $or every 1 po"nd earnings! #he "pward trend o$ HB ??& 1C!6C in >??2 and 14!6C in >?1?@ shows its less val"e attractiveness than GWB

?!4 in >??& 16!46 in >??2 and !C in >?1?@ $or years!

However& the higher (E ratio also shows the con$idence in $"t"re earning power o$

the company! HB there$ore has higher market con$idence in stock increase $or $"t"re!

'tock prices o$ HB is m"ch more $l"ct"ated& and lower than GWB demonstrates its

better probability to increase while GWB+s stock price is very high and has less space

$or share price rising!


23/23

As o"r investor Mr 'tephen %"rry has a broad port$olio in the o$ shares b"t he does

not have very m"ch e.pos"re to the games retailing sector& we wo"ld like to

recommend him to better choose the low risk9long term investment that is Games

Workshop gro"p ()% to invest!

#h"s by st"dying the ratios& per$ormances and the share price o$ the two companies

we s"ggest it will be wise and pro$itable $or Mr!'tephen to invest in Games

Workshop ()%!

R#!#r#nc#s:

Elliott& B! and Elliott& 5! ??@ Financial Acco"nting and eporting! 1>th Edition!

Q Harlow 0Q (earson

Ale.ander& D!& Britton& A! and 5orissen& A! ??2@ International Financial eporting

And Analysis! 6#H Edition! Andover0 (atrick Bond

8+egan& (! ??:@ Financial In$ormation Analysis! >7D Edition! Q %hichester&

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