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Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure Association of Engineers and Technicians of Transport

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Page 1: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Investing in Airports in Tough Economic

Times

Mark Heusinkveld28 May 2009

Lodz, Republic of Poland

European Sky over Poland

Ministry of Infrastructure

Association of Engineers and Technicians of Transport

Page 2: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Strategic Feasibility Studies

Master Plans

Airspace &Airfield Modeling

Forecasting and Facility Requirements

Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility

Noise & Environmental Analysis

AirsideAirsidePlanningPlanning

Landrum & Brown Services

Page 3: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Airside Airside PlanningPlanning

Cargo & LogisticsCargo & LogisticsPlanningPlanning

Forecasting

Facility Layout

Operations/Financing Plans

Marketing and Development

Strategic Feasibility Studies

Master Plans

Airspace &Airfield Modeling

Forecasting and Facility Requirements

Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility

Noise & Environmental Analysis

Landrum & Brown Services

Page 4: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Cargo & LogisticsCargo & LogisticsPlanningPlanning

Forecasting

Facility Layout

Operations Plans

Marketing and Development

Terminal/LandsideTerminal/LandsidePlanningPlanning

Terminal/LandsideTerminal/LandsidePlanningPlanning

Programming, Schematic Design, Modeling, 3D, Gate Management

Airside Airside PlanningPlanning

Strategic Feasibility Studies

Master Plans

Airspace &Airfield Modeling

Forecasting and Facility Requirements

Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility

Noise & Environmental Analysis

Landrum & Brown Services

Page 5: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Global Aviation Experience

Page 6: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

North American

ACI Air Traffic Statistics by Regions

Latin America Caribbean

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia/Pacific

Psg: total passengers

(millions)

Cgo: total cargo

(metric tonnes 000s)

Mov: total movements

(000s)

World Map of Air Traffic Change 2007 ~ 2008

Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Page 7: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Cuban Missile Crisis

Hijackings

R

Fuel Shock

R

Fuel Shock

PATCOStrike

RR

Pan Am103

Persian Gulf War

R

WTC 1993

9-11

R

Iraq War

Fuel Shock

Fuel Shock

R

Credit Crisis

Aviation System Shocks and Recoveries1960-2006 – U.S. Market

Source: Jan 2009 update Tragedy Analysis (Landrum & Brown Analysis)

Page 8: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Worldwide Passenger Traffic History

1960-2007

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

Reven

ue E

np

lan

em

en

ts (

in m

illion

s)

Worldwide Total Enplanements

U.S. Total Enplanements

Page 9: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

World Airline Traffic Forecasting: Number of Passengers1945 ~ 2030

45’~54’23.2%

Growth Rates 55’~64’

9.6%65’~74’12.6%

75’~84’5.3%

85’~94’3.6%

95’~04’4.2%

Forecasted Growth Rate:

Boeing = 4.26% Airbus= 4.30%

Source: Airport Transport Association (http://www.air-transport.org/); Boeing transformation of air transport summary outlook 2008; Airbus Global Market Forecasting 2007

Page 10: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

2007-2015: 12 New Airports at U.S.$15.2 Billion

New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn

Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )

Page 11: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn

New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn

Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )

2007-2015: 22 New Terminals at U.S.$18.8 Billion

Page 12: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn

New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn

Other Exps. 31 $ 36,048 Mn

Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright )

2007-2015: 31 Expansion Projects at U.S.$36.0 Billion

Page 13: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Planning Strategies

Understand the Market Focus on the Forecast Plan for Flexibility Anticipate Change Ensure Balanced Facilities Explore all Revenue Opportunities Build for What is Foreseen Continually Improve Performance

Page 14: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

70 MAP 100 MAP 130 MAP 160 MAP

Use of Planning Demand Levels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180P

assen

gers

(m

illion

s)

History Low Case Base Case High Case EK Forecast

70 MAP 100 MAP 130 MAP 160 MAP

Page 15: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

The Effect of a Changing Fleet…

Page 16: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Aircraft by ICAO Design Code

24.1%

10.3%63.3%

0.9%1.4%17.8%

3.5%

62.6%

0.0%16.0%

70 MAP 160 MAP

B C D E F

ICAO Design Code B:

ERJ170, E145 …

ICAO Design Code C:

B737, A320 …

ICAO Design Code D:

A300, B757, B767 …

ICAO Design Code F:

A380, An225 …

ICAO Design Code E:

A340, A330, B747, B777 …

Page 17: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Transfer DeparturesTransfer ArrivalsO&D DeparturesO&D Arrivals

Understand the demand profile…

Transfer

Passengers

Transfer

Passengers

O&D

Passengers

O&D

Passengers

Page 18: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Ensure Balance of Airspace withAirside, Terminal and Landside

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Hong Kong

Macau

Zhuhai

5 Airports 3 Jurisdictions Restricted

Airspace

Page 19: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Anticipating Change Since 1959

1959 1962 1968

1971 1996

Future

1946

Page 20: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Explore Future Development Options

Page 21: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Hong Kong – Airport City Concept

New T2 Terminal

New Bus Depot

Convention Center

Potential Office Development

Future Development

Ferry Terminal

Hotel

Page 22: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Mumbai – Redevelopment on Site

Page 23: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Explore the Potential…

Page 24: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Develop a Vision… And build what can be justified

Maglev - Metro Subway - High Speed Rail - City Buses –

Commercial Development – Retail – Residential - Logistics

Page 25: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

شـــكرDًا !

Thank You!Dziękuję!

Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Page 26: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Total Passengers by Region2007~2008

Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Page 27: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Total Cargo by Region2007~2008

Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Page 28: Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure

Total Movements by Region2007~2008

Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008