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  • 1. Computers in the Operating Room: A Patient/Customer and Computer Persons View The 3rd Congress on Computers & Robotics in the Operating Room 2000 July 14, 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation For Computer Motion Company Yulan Wang Technology transitions
  • 2. rd The 3 REMOTE PRESENCE CLINICAL INNOVATIONS FORUM Intouch-Health Technology transitions seem to take forever (technology adoption, telepresence, robots, PHRs, startups) July 18, 2008 Gordon Bell Microsoft Research Technology transitions
  • 3. Outline Meads 11 year rule (transistor, ICs) & Consumer Electronics Some examples Teleconferencing, telerobots, ebooks, Why does it take so long? Will MS and Google Health make it? Betting against optimists No technology before its time bells law A look at startups Technology transitions
  • 4. Technology transitions
  • 5. Technology transitions
  • 6. Teleconferencing Technology transitions
  • 7. Cisco Telepresence System 3200: $340,000 08 Technology transitions
  • 8. AT&T PMS Picturephone Meeting Service c1979 Room cost approximately $250,000 Technology transitions
  • 9. Teleconferencing 1979: AT&T PMS Picturephone Meeting Service 2008: Cisco Telepresence System Technology transitions
  • 10. The Promise of Videoconferencing AT&T introduced Picturephone at the 1964 Worlds fair 1980s: PMS room-based systems 1990s Desktop/internet systems (Cu-SeeMe, MBONE, NetMeeting) cheap! 2008 Cisco Telepresence system (room) Why isnt videoconferencing much bigger than it is??? Technology transitions
  • 11. Conference Rooms with video c1995 Teleconferencing Technology transitions
  • 12. Telepresentations: The Killer App Increased attendance & lower travel costs Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internet http://research.microsoft.com/acm97 Technology transitions
  • 13. How to Fail at Videoconferencing Audio latency high + quality poor No gaze awareness/screen area/2-D only. Lack of ubiquity Hard to set up call Note: phone is the competitor (ubiquitous, easy calling, low latency). Critical: audio quality, 3-D space, and gaze awareness Technology transitions
  • 14. Robots my first was a GE tele-operated refrigerator c1948 Technology transitions
  • 15. Technology transitions
  • 16. Denning Mobile Robots c1983-1999 Navigation by wall mounted beacons Technology transitions
  • 17. Mobile videophone Technology transitions
  • 18. Gordons Telerobot c1991 updated 5/6/08
  • 19. Technology transitions
  • 20. Robot Drivers License Technology transitions
  • 21. Technology transitions
  • 22. Realizing Memex Digital Capture, Storage, and Utilization of All Personal Information www.MyLifeBits.com Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell, Roger Lueder Technology transitions
  • 23. The killer app Health? Technology transitions
  • 24. Capturing every heartbeat 72.6 beats/min; 38.16 Million beats/year 3.13 billion beats year The important number is 4-4.5 years, or ETS Battery life: the expected trip to surgery! Technology transitions
  • 25. BodyMedia Output Technology transitions
  • 26. MyHealthBits PHR Schema B Parmatto, Technology transitions U. Pittsburgh Courtesy of B. Parmanto, U. of Pittsburgh
  • 27. Especially cyber-ready images Technology transitions
  • 28. Your husband just died, heres his black box Technology transitions
  • 29. Honda Robot Technology transitions
  • 30. Teleconferencing It is happening! slowly Skype and video telephony are critical Technology transitions
  • 31. Bells Law it should apply to telepresence P 3. Supercomputer: the largest r computers of the day 1. Constant price, increasing performance. i 2. Sub-class formation. c e 4. New, minimal priced computers: smallest, useful computer, new apps, new industry Time Technology transitions
  • 32. Technology transitions
  • 33. eBook Readers Softbook c1998 Sony c2006 Amazon c2008 Publishers: recall music, video Technology transitions
  • 34.