international conference on contemporary issues workshop ... · anil patel senior director boeing...
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Anil PatelSenior DirectorBoeing Capital Corporation
Anil PatelSenior DirectorBoeing Capital Corporation
International Conference on Contemporary Issues&
Workshop on Introduction toAir Transport, Air Law & Regulation
March 21 – 25, 2008 New Delhi
International Conference on Contemporary Issues&
Workshop on Introduction toAir Transport, Air Law & Regulation
March 21 – 25, 2008 New Delhi
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AgendaAgenda
• Market Review & Forecast
• Boeing Products in the market
• Aviation Financing
• Summary
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0
2
4
6
8
10
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1986 1996 2006 2016 2026
20-Year Forecast: Strong Long-Term Growth
Historical
Long-Term Growth2007 - 2026
GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0%
Cargo = 6.1%
Long-Term Growth2007 - 2026
GDP = 3.1% Passenger = 5.0%
Cargo = 6.1%
RPKs (trillions)
Future
Historic Growth1986 - 2006
GDP = 2.9% Passenger = 4.8%Cargo = 6.3%
4
Airlines Will Need Over 28,600 New Airplanes
28,600 airplanes
13%22%
62%
747 and largerTwin-aisleSingle-aisleRegional jets
3%
Includes CIS
$2.8T 2006 delivery dollars
42%
9%
45%
4%
5
19%
1%
6%
74%
41% 53%
2%
4%
911airplanes
$86.0 billiondelivery dollars*
Regional jetsSingle-aisleTwin-aisle747 and larger
*In year 2006 dollars Catalogue Prices
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2007
Over the Next 20 Years India Will Require a Large Number of Airplanes
Very Few in 747 and Larger Size
Over the Next 20 Years India Will Require a Large Number of Airplanes
Very Few in 747 and Larger Size
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
Asian Currency
Crisis
Iranian crisis
Historically Cyclical Nature of Aviation
Oil Embargo
Aviation downturns World Real GDP GrowthOperating Margin
GulfWar 1
9/11
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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World Traffic and Capacity Growth
4.6%
6.5%
0.9%
4.5%
RPKsRPKs
3.0%
5.9%
0.1%
3.6%
ASKsASKs
1212--Month moving Month moving averageaverage
4.0%3.9%Asia
8.1%7.2%Europe
3.6%1.1%US Domestic
5.4%4.5%World
RPKsRPKsASKsASKs
YearYear--toto--year changeyear change
Traffic outpacing capacity growthTraffic outpacing capacity growth
ROM Associates, ATA, and AEA, airline reports and Boeing Market Analysis. As of August 2007
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Airline Productivity Rising
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20068.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200660%
65%
70%
75%
80%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
+ 8%
Single-AisleUtilization
Twin-AisleUtilization
World LoadFactors
+ 6% + 4%
Utilization and load factors at historical highsUtilization and load factors at historical highs
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Increasing Geographic Diversity of theWorld’s Fleet
Source: AirclaimsNote: 2026 fleet composition based on forecast fleet from Boeing 2007 CMO
19701970 20062006 20262026
EuropeEurope33%33%
NorthAmerica
55%
NorthAmerica
55%
OtherOther7%7%
AsiaAsia5%5%
EuropeEurope31%31%
NorthAmerica
37%
NorthAmerica
37%
OtherOther13%13%
AsiaAsia19%19%
EuropeEurope26%26%
North America
33%
North America
33%
OtherOther13%13%
AsiaAsia28%28%
Geographic fleet balance should mitigate aviation cyclesGeographic fleet balance should mitigate aviation cycles
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Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops
Air travel growth has been met by increased frequencies and nonstops
Index 1980=1.00
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Frequency Growth
Nonstop Markets
Average Airplane Size
Air Travel Growth
2006 OAG data reflected
World
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Single-Aisle Product Strategy
Passenger Airplane Deliveries Forecast2007 – 2026 2006 – 2025
BOEING AIRBUS
737-900ER180 seats
737-800162 seats
737-700126 seats
737-600110 seats
A321-200183 seats
A320-200150 seats
A319-200126 seats
A318107 seats
240Seats
90 Seats
17,63017,630 15,33015,330
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A340-600323 seats
A340-500/A340-300/A330-300280 262 262 seats
A330-200241 seats
747-400416 seats
Twin-Aisle Product Strategy
777-300/-300ER365 seats
777-200/-200ER/200LR301 seats
767-400ER 245 seats
767-300ER 218 seats
767-200ER 181 seats
BOEING AIRBUSA380-800555 seats
200 Seat Gap
60 Seat Gap
A350-800
A350-900
A350-1000
SEATS
747-8467 seats
787-9280 seats
787-8242 seats
777-200ER/200LR 787-10301 seats
2,630
3,190
-200-
1,263
2,579
2,125
-450-
-400-
-300-
-350-
-250-
-500-
563
295
295
Passenger Airplane Deliveries Forecast2007 – 2026 2006 – 2025
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737NG Market Validation
737-MI-2006 01-23-08-DR/LB
4,549 firm orders and 113 customers
• Through December 2007.• 2,467 deliveries.• Number of customers exclude BBJ.
SunExpress
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787 Unprecedented Market Success
*
*
*
*January 21, 2008
*
56 customers; 857 firm orders56 customers; 857 firm orders
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The 777 is the market leader
1,044 firm orders687 delivered54 customers
December 31, 2007
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12
104 Announced Orders
COPYRIGHT © 2006 THE BOEING COMPANY
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As of January 11, 2008
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6
13 14
5
10
5
10 5
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Aircraft Financing Environment
GGNew Sources of Funding
G
G
G
G
G/Y/G
G
G
20072007
G
G
G/Y
G
G/Y
G/Y
G
20082008FebFeb
GGGGPrivate Equity / Hedge Funds
YYRRTax Equity
GGGGExport Credit Agencies
GGR/YRAirframe and Engine Manufacturers
YR/YRRPublic Debt / Capital Markets
GGGR/YCommercial Banks
GGYR/YLessors
20062006200520052004200420032003Capital ProvidersCapital Providers
Satisfactory Cautionary Major ConcernG Y R ChangeY/G
G
G/Y
G/Y
Y/R
G
Y/R
Y
G/Y
TodayToday
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Sources of Aircraft Financing –Boeing Deliveries ($)
2003
31%31%
26%26%18%18%
17%17%
8%8%
2004
35%35%
20%20%25%25%
16%16%4%4%
2005
38%38%
17%17%
26%26%
18%18%1%1%
2007
34%34%
30%30%
22%22%
11%11%3%3%
2006
29%29%
30%30%
21%21%<1%<1%
1%1%
Leasing companies Export credit Bank debt
Cash/other sources ManufacturerPublic debt/capital markets
2008 fcst.
22%22%
19%19%39%39%
14%14%7%7%
18%18%
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Developing New Sources of Capital
ChinaChinaChina Middle EastMiddle EastMiddle East
Developing Regional BankingDeveloping Regional BankingDeveloping Regional Banking Sovereign Wealth FundsSovereign Wealth FundsSovereign Wealth Funds
• Qatar• Kuwait• Saudi Arabia• UAE• Bahrain• Oman
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Evolution of Aircraft Finance
Aircraft AssetAircraft Asset
Airline CreditAirline Credit
Airline CreditAirline CreditAirline CreditAirline Credit
Aircraft AssetAircraft Asset
AirAirccrraafftt AssetAssetYesterday
Today
Tomorrow
Managing risk through asset differentiationManaging risk through asset differentiation
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What Makes an Airplane a Great Investment?
Airplane capabilities (range, speed…)
Number of engine types available
Part of a family of airplanes
Environmental friendliness
Simplicity of re-configuration
OEM support for model
Many airplanes sold …
To lots of different customers…
With geographic distribution of sales
Liquidity and stable residual value performanceLiquidity and stable residual value performance
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Solutions
Pioneering technology Manufacturing Operational efficiency Public policy
Environmental Initiative
Risks
Opportunities
Efficient / incentive- basedcarbon market
Sustainable environment
Airline businessAirline businessAsset valuesAsset values
Managing risk / unlocking opportunities by Working TogetherManaging risk / unlocking opportunities by Working Together
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Evolving Global A/C Finance Infrastructure
OECD
European
SafetyAgency
Aviation
EUROCONTROLIASB
Cape Town Treaty
AWG AWG –– the voice of our industrythe voice of our industry
BANK FORINTERNATIONALSETTLEMENTS
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Cape Town Treaty in Full Force and EffectMarch 31, 2008
Panama
Oman
Afghanistan
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Ireland
Mongolia
Cape Verde
Nigeria
Malaysia
Kenya
Mexico
Pakistan
Senegal
South Africa
Albania
USA
Angola
Colombia
India
Global syndication infrastructureGlobal syndication infrastructureGlobal syndication infrastructure
20082008CandidatesCandidates
China
EU
UAE
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AirlineCustomers
AirlineCustomers
OpinionMakersOpinionMakers
CapitalProviders
CapitalProviders
BoeingBoeing
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SummarySummary
• Large aircraft market over the next 20 years: 28,600 units and $2.8T
• Boeing’s product strategy is addressing the market requirements
• Boeing working to ensure adequate financing is and will be available
• Improve aircraft financing environment
• Environmental
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