innovation overload – technology, jobs and the future

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9:00 AM - 10:00 AM

Innovation Overload – Technology, Jobs and the Future

Room: Meeting Room 3

Speaker: David Smith

This is not your grandfather’s job market where one could work and retire from one company after 40 years. Your father and your company have probably not fared that well either. The fast pace of technology change and productivity improvements, in an increasingly competitive market, have forced companies to change their strategy, frequently upgrade and improve their products or services, and adjust their workforce. Downsizing, outsourcing, automation, financial pressures, short-term demands, and failed strategy all contribute to the challenges.

The pace of technology innovation is increasing so fast that many have a hard time choosing where to focus and how to discover what is new. Most delay action and then miss the window to innovate. The growth of complex systems and a global infrastructure has changed the decision and education process. The ability to adapt to real-time and continuous learning will provide an advantage for professionals of the future. A future focus and focused innovation will drive the next generations of products and services.

This talk explores the future of work and how it impacts companies and you.

David Smith

Technology, Jobs and the Future

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Work

“No other technique for the conduct of life attaches the individual so firmly to reality as laying emphasis on work: For work at least gives one a secure place in a portion of reality, in the human community.”

Sigmund Freud

The product of work contributes to health, well-being and economic & social stability.

Changes to the Future of Work

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Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and projections of Census/BLS and BEA data.

Millions of People

Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand

Growing Shortage of U.S. Workers

0

50

100

150

200

250

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Labor Needed

Labor Available

Female Labor Force Participation(as a Percent of the Female Population Age 15+), 1990-2011

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Screeching to a Halt:Growth in the Working-Age Population

Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You Know Where Your Talent Is? Why Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p.6

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Mexico Brazil India China South Australia Canada US Netherlands Spain France UK Russia Italy Japan GermanyKorea

1970-2010

2010-2050

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5% 5%

-9%

18%

48%

15%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age of Workers

Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010

Dramatically Different Patterns of Growth by Age

1. Declining number of mid-career workers

2. Few younger workers entering

3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

. . . Continuing Into the Future

Age of Workers

Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020

7% 8% 7%

-10%

3%

73%

54%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

under 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 55-64 65+


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In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World . . .

Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%


Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000

. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025


Under 5% 5% to 12.4% 12.5% to 20% Above 20%

Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025

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1900 1950 1970 1980 1990 20001910 1920 1930 1940 1960

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

80

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration

Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.

Why? Dramatic Increase in Life Expectancy

“Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000Age

76.5

47

383635

3025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1900 2000

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And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates

Source: Age Wave

Tota

l Fer

tility

Rat

eTotal Fertility Rate:

3.32.8 2.9

3.6

2.02.5 2.5

4.0

5.9

2.01.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

1.8

3.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

US UK France Canada Japan Germany Italy China India

1960 2000

Why? The Baby Boom Pattern

Source: U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Birth

in M

illion

s

The Boom Years: 1946-1964

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Skill Mismatch Ahead in the U.S.

Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college degree

Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:- # students that declared their major in computer science has

declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000- Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences

A growing number of high school dropouts Fewer high school graduates with vocational training Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and

opportunities in rapidly developing countries

Source: In part, The Seventh-Annual Workplace Report, Challenges Facing the American Workplace, Summary of Findings,” Employment Policy Foundation, 2002; India Daily, October 12, 2005, citing McKinsey & Co. Research; Computing Research Association, March 2005; Information Week, August 16, 2004; Holding

on to Global Talent: Foreign-born stars are heading home. How to keep them working for you” by Anne Fisher, Fortune Magazine, October 19, 2005. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

When I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, "Tom, finish your dinner. People in China and India are starving."

Today I tell my girls, "Finish your homework. People in China and India are starving for your jobs."

Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman on Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005

—Thomas Friedman, The World is Flat

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U.S. 21st Century Workforce Challenges

Chronologically olderLimited availabilityKey skills lackingGlobal & VirtualDiverse- Race- Gender- Age Generations- Culture

Source: Testimony by Tamara J. Erickson to the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, May 2005

Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine, 2005

Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the early 21st century workplace

“Multi-Generational” Workforce

Traditionalist Boomer Generation X Generation Y

Born: 1928-1945 Born: 1946-1964 Born: 1965-1980 Born: 1980-2000

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• to disappear • to go away • to withdraw

Source: Webster's New Twentieth Century Dictionary

Webster's Definition of Retirement

Average Retirement Age of Males

Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

France

64.5

59.2

65.2

60.5

64.5

60.6

66.2

62.3

66.2

62.7

66.5

63.6

67.2

Germany Italy Canada UK US Japan

1995196068

66

64

62

60

58

56

66.5

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Falling Desire for Jobswith Greater Responsibility

Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute

69%

41%

14%

60%54%

31%

15%

80%

Under 23 years old(Gen-Y in 2002)

23-37 years old(Gen-X in 2002)

38-57 years old(Boomers in 2002)

58 or more years old

1992

2002

Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater Responsibility By Gender

Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace, An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute

52%

68%

1992 2002

Men

36%

57%

1992 2002

Women

Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility

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Lower Alignment with the Organization

4539

32

4844

28

5752

35

6561

53

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

I really care about the fateof this organization

(agree)

I’m willing to put in effortbeyond that normallyexpected to help the

organization besuccessful (agree)

I find my values and theorganization’s are similar

(agree)

Y X Boomer Traditionalist

Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation, The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2004

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Education Work Leisure

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Shifting the Old Work/Life Paradigm . . .

Age

Source: Demography is De$tiny, The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age

80

. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm

Source: Demography is De$tiny,The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Age

80

. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”

Source: Demography is Destiny, The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003

Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic Work

12%

39%

49%

Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forthbetween working full-time

and not working

The most popular pattern for working after “retirement” is

not part-time, but moving back and forth between

periods of working and not working.


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Cutting Back Has New Meaning: Cyclic Work

12%

39%

49%

Working full-time Working part-time Moving back and forthbetween working full-time

and not working

The most popular pattern for working after “retirement” is

not part-time, but moving back and forth between

periods of working and not working.


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Copyright, 2011 © HBMG, Inc.

The Limits of Technology

The laws of physics

The laws of software

The challenge of algorithms

The difficulty of distribution

The problems of design

The importance of organization

The impact of economics

The influence of politics

The limits of human imagination

Fundamental

Human

The Open Economy

• New business models based on collaboration, co-creation & sharing

• Transparency as a normal practice

• Conversations (two way communication)

• Open interfaces to partners, vendors, suppliers, customers

• Common technology and business standards

• Service and Experience Mentality

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Impact of Lifestyle on Health and Work

100%

0%

HEA

LTH

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 AGE

Ideal Lifeline

Typical Lifeline

Optimal Health

Declining Health

Poor Health

Progressive and chronic disability

What is healthy aging in the 21st century? Westendorp RGJ Am J Clin Nut, Vol. 83, No. 2, 404S-409 (2006)

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Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

Copyright 2012@ HBMG Inc.

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The reward for work well done is the opportunity to

do more. - Jonas Salk (1914 - 1995)

In Parting: Be Paranoid

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business

world will change.”

⎯ Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”

“Sooner or later, something fundamental in your business

world will change.”

⎯ Andrew S. Grove, Founder, Intel“Only the Paranoid Survive”