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Ovid, Metamorphoses

There is nothing in the whole world which is permanent.

Everything flows onward; all things are brought into being with a changing nature;

the ages themselves glide by in constant movement.

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CHANGEoften occurs not slowly and incrementally but discontinuously and in big leaps. The arch, the pulley, the compass, eyeglasses, moveable type, the steam engine, the cotton gin, asphalt, the Model T, elevators, structural steel, the atomic bomb: these are inventions whose impact has extended far beyond the activities for which their creators built them. Ultimately, the havoc they visited on social, political, and economic systems has outweighed the impact of their intended usage.

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Until the 21st Century,the history of invention and innovation was a history of killer apps.

A killer app is a new good or service that establishes an entirely new category and, by being first, dominates it, returning several hundred percent on the initial investment. The personal computer, electronic funds transfer, and the first word processing program are all examples of killer apps.

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developing break-through innovation seemed to be comparably easy.

50 years ago,

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Because products were easy.

And the world was, too.

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Interesting Facts about The 1950’s

12" records cost $4.85.A Dog named Laika became the first live animal to enter space.A Ford car cost $1339-$2262.A loaf of bread cost 14 cents.A new house cost $14,500.A postage stamp cost 3 cents.Castro became dictator of Cuba.CBS begins broadcasting in color.Gas was 20 cents a gallon.Hula Hoops became popular.Legos were introduced.McDonalds corporation founded.Milk was 82 cents a gallon.Pillsbury and General Mills began offering prepared cake mixes.The average income was $3,216 a year.The color television set was introduced in the USA.The first atomic Submarine was launched.The first hydrogen bomb was ordered by president Harry Truman.The first modern credit card was invented.The first photocopying machine was created.The first self-service elevator is installed by Otis Elevator in Dallas.The population of the world was 2.52 billionThe TV remote control was invented.

Unemployment was 5.3%

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Today, the world has become complex. In 2008, about 40 exabytes (that’s 4.0 x 1019) of unique new information were

generated worldwide. That’s estimated to be more than in the previous 5,000 years. The amount of new technical information is doubling every 2 years. It’s predicted to double every 72 hours by 2010.

And so are products.

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And innovation, of course.

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The key to future success lies in reducing complexity.

And in foreseeing the future.

the future?

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the future?

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the future?

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the future?

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The best way to predict the future is to invent it. This is the century in which you can be proactive about the future; you don't have to be reactive. The whole idea of having scientists and technology is that those THINGS YOU CAN ENVISION AND DESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT. Alan C. Kay

THINGS YOU CAN ENVISION AND DESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT.

Again:

It‘s staggering how much of what we do today is last generation‘s science fiction. Dean Kamen, inventor of the Segway

SOME EXAMPLES...

SCUBA DIVING as imagined by Jules Verne in '20,000 Leagues Under The Sea' (1875) Although diving gear was nothing new, even in 1875, it was then only possible through a pipe to the surface and a semi-rigid suit. Captain Nemo introduces Arronnax to a portable system of diving in which air is compressed into a tank that is then ‘fixed on the back by means of braces, like a soldier’s knapsack.’ The progression of the aqualung continued through the early part of the 20th century, but was not perfected until the 1940s.

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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TEST-TUBE BABIES as imagined by Aldous Huxley in 'Brave New World' (1932)

Brave New World is one of the most famous glimpses into an imagined future, and author Aldous Huxley’s imagination conjured up a world where the population is not born naturally but from a machine, where their genes can be

perfected and the nutrition controlled. This pre-dates the arrival of so-called test tube babies, where the egg is fertilised outside of the body, by some 46 years – although in reality a human is still needed for the pregnancy, which

means you'll have to hold off on suggesting a test-tube baby's star sign is Pyrex...

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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ROBOTSas imagined by Karel Capek - 'Rossum’s Universal Robots' (1920) There are links to mechanical servants traceable back to Greek Mythology and the legend of Pygmalion, but the first use of the word robot in its modern usage comes from Capek’s play R.U.R – the root is from the Czech word ‘robota’ which means drudgery, although the author kindly gave credit to his brother Josef who had suggested the term.

CCTV

as imagined by George Orwell in ‘1984’ (1949) In one of the most famous dystopian imaginings, George Orwell plunged his character Winston into a world of paranoia and suspicion, watched over by the sinister Big Brother. First published back in 1949, Orwell pictured a life where the populace was watched over by telescreens, with nobody ever sure if they were being watched. CCTV arrived as a means of watching the public in the 1970s, and there are now an estimated four million cameras in the UK alone.

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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THE SCREENSAVER as imagined by Robert Heinlein in 'Stranger in a Strange Land' (1961) Heinlein talks of a television screen ‘disguised as an aquarium’ in his book Stranger in a Strange land, with guppies and tetras swimming around, describing the now familiar site of a computer screen with fish floating serenely across it. Screen savers were brought in to stop an image being burnt on to a screen, and even the advent of monitors much more resistant to this problem has not really curbed their usage.

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

THE INTERNET as imagined by Mark Twain in ‘From the London Times of 1904’ (1898) "The improved 'limitless-distance' telephone was presently introduced, and the daily doings of the globe made visible to everybody, and audibly discussable too, by witnesses separated by any number of leagues." A little bit more a stretch for this one, but back in 1898, Twain wrote of a global communications network called the telelectroscope that you could see and hear through – pretty good going for the 19th Century! The Internet, or at least the American military precursor to it named ARPANET (Advanced Research Projects Agency NETwork), was first brought about in 1969, as a way of keeping lines of communication open in the event of a major attack during the Cold War.

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Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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THE VIDEO IPOD as imagined by HG Wells in ‘When The Sleeper Wakes’ (1899)

Wells, the writer of some of the most important books in science fiction, came up with a device that sounds almost exactly like a modern day media player such as a video iPod in his book ‘When The

Sleeper Wakes. His version was a flat square with a little picture that was ‘very vividly coloured.’ Not only were the people on the screen moving, but they were conversing with clear small voices.

Science-Fiction predictions that came trueCommon technologies – predicted by some of the world’s most famous authors

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AND SO ON...

THINGS YOU CAN ENVISION AND DESCRIBE CAN ACTUALLY BE BUILT.

* This means: Companies need a tool to connect innovation and imagination.

Again:

*

AIDA ARIZ Advantages, Limitations and Unique Qualities Algorithm of Inventive Problem Solving Alternative Scenarios Analogies Anonymous Voting Assumption Busting Assumption Surfacing Attribute Listing Backwards Forwards Planning Boundary Examination Boundary Relaxation BrainSketching Brainstorming Brainwriting Browsing Brutethink Bug Listing BulletProofing Bunches of Bananas CATWOE Card Story Boards Cartoon Story Board Causal Mapping Charette Cherry Split Chunking Circle of Opportunity Clarification Classic Brainstorming Collective Notebook Comparison tables Component Detailing Concept Fan Consensus Mapping Constrained BrainWriting Contradiction Analysis Controlling Imagery Crawford Slip Writing Creative Problem Solving - CPS Criteria for idea-finding potential Critical Path Diagrams DO IT Decision seminar Delphi Dialectical Approaches Dimensional Analysis Disney Creativity Strategy Do Nothing Drawing Escape Thinking Essay Writing Estimate-Discuss-Estimate Exaggeration Excursions F-R-E-E-Writing Factors in selling ideas False Faces Fishbone Diagram Five Ws and H Flow charts Focus Groups Focusing Force-Field Analysis Force-Fit Game Free Association Fresh eye Gallery method Gap Analysis Goal Orientation Greetings Cards Help-Hinder Heuristic Ideation Technique Hexagon Modelling Highlighting Idea Advocate Idea Box Ideal Final Result Imagery Manipulation Imagery for Answering Questions Imaginary Brainstorming Implementation Checklists Improved Nominal Group Technique Interpretive structural modeling Ishikawa Diagram KJ-Method Keeping a Dream Diary Kepner and Tregoe method Laddering Lateral Thinking Listing Listing Pros and Cons Metaplan Information Market Mind Mapping Morphological Analysis Morphological Forced Connections Multiple Redefinition NAF NLP Negative Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Nominal-Interacting Technique Notebook Observer and Merged Viewpoints Osborn's Checklist Other Peoples Definitions Other Peoples Viewpoints PDCA PIPS PMI Paired Comparison Panel Consensus Paraphrasing Key Words Personal Balance Sheet Pictures as Idea Triggers Pin Cards Plusses Potentials and Concerns Potential Problem Analysis Preliminary Questions Problem Centred Leadership Problem Inventory Analysis - PIA Problem Reversal Productive Thinking Model Progressive Hurdles Progressive Revelation Provocation Q-Sort Quality Circles Random Stimuli Rawlinson Brainstorming Receptivity to Ideas Reframing Values Relational Words Relaxation Reversals RoleStorming SCAMMPERR SCAMPER SDI SODA SWOT Analysis Sculptures Search Conference Sequential-Attributes Matrix Similarities and Differences Simple Rating Methods Simplex Six Thinking Hats Slice and Dice Snowball Technique Soft Systems Method Stakeholder Analysis Sticking Dots Stimulus Analysis Story Writing Strategic Assumption Testing Strategic Choice Approach Strategic Management Process Successive Element Integration SuperGroup SuperHeroes Synectics Systematic Inventive Thinking TILMAG TRIZ Talking Pictures Technology Monitoring Thinkx Thril Transactional Planning Trigger Method Trigger Sessions Tug of War Using Crazy Ideas Using Experts Value Brainstorming Value Engineering Visual Brainstorming Visualising a Goal Who Are You Why Why Why Wishing Working with Dreams and Images

Which one?

Today, a very widespread innovation approach is: to find a need and fill it. We don't get many new ideas out of that because if you ask most people what they want, they want just what they have now, 10 percent faster, 10 percent cheaper, with 10 percent more features. It's kind of a boring way to predict the future. But if we look at the big hitters in the 20th century, like the Xerox machine, like the personal computer, like the pocket calculator, all of these things did something else. They weren't contaminations of existing things. They weren't finding a need and filling it. They created a need that only they could fill. Their presence on the scene caused a need to be felt, and almost paradoxically the company was there to create the need and fill the need. Nobody needed to copy until the Xerox machine came along. Nobody needed to calculate before the pocket calculator came along. When mini computers and micro computers came in, people said, "What do we need those things for? You can do everything now on the mainframe." And the answer was, "Of course, you can do all those things on the mainframe, but it's for all the extra things you can do that you wouldn't think of doing on the mainframe."

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Don‘t look for needs to fill them. Create a need that only you can fill!

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'Back from Future' ScenariosThink yourself into a far future. A future with no physical or mental determinations. Create a world that appears wishful to you. Think people into this world who feel pretty much in harmony with what they do and with how they do it. Use personas for a better understanding, and start imagining their normal life before you focus on the areas connected with your business. Think what would be great, not what is probable. Try to set yourself free from today‘s limitations. It is important that you write down your thoughts and ideas, and that you start to construct a story because this helps your brain to free its creative capacities. Use all insights that you have about the future – social, political and demographic developments, shifts in values, expected developments in the technology sectors, future studies and so on – to substantiate your plot. Science fiction material – books, movies, sketches etc. – can help you dive into your future world. The resulting scenarios are a good platform to think about possible challenges in the near future and opportunities on how to solve them.

near future far futuretoday

Creating a need that only you can fill:

near future far futuretoday

creative future scenario planning1

Creating a need that only you can fill:

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creative future scenario planning

problem-oriented backwards thinking

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Creating a need that only you can fill:

near future far futuretoday

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Creating a need that only you can fill:

ADVISES FORINNOVATORS

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Be investigative –Explore the places where future already happens.

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Exploit science fiction –Read SF books, watch SF movies, explore virtual worlds.

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School is certainly not about the future. If schools were future oriented, they would be full of classes in programming, multimedia literacy and creation, astronautics, bioethics, genomics, and nanotechnology. Science fiction and fantasy literature would be a part of the curriculum, as representative of alternative visions of the future.

MARC PRENSKY

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Be courageous –Even the strangest idea will find its fans.

Be optimistic –There is a market for (almost) everything.

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Be multifunctional –Don‘t think in product categories, think in usage scenarios.

As the center of economic activity in the developed world shifts inexorably from industrial manufacturing to knowledge creation and service delivery, innovation has become nothing less than a survival strategy. It is, moreover, no longer limited to new physical products but includes new sorts of processes, services, interactions, entertainment forms, and ways of communicating and collaborating.

FROM THE BOOK CHANGE BY DESIGN BY TIM BROWN

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Think global –Prepare for the new emerging markets.

Approximately a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade as economic growth in emerging markets pushes them beyond the threshold level of 5,000 in annual household income – the point where people generally begin to spend on discretionary goods. The consumers spending power in emerging economies will increase from 4 trillion today to more than 9 trillion in 2015. This is nearly the current spending power of Western Europe.

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Be cooperative –Give your customers the chance to co-create.

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Be farsighted –Nurture an innovation culture in your company.

FROM THE BOOK CHANGE BY DESIGN BY TIM BROWN

Tricks from the designer's toolkit – user observations, brainstorming, prototyping, storytelling, and scenario building – are invaluable in building an innovation capability, but taken by themselves they are rarely sufficient. Innovation has to be coded into the DNA of a company if there is to be large-scale, long-term impact.

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Be open-minded –Learn from other firms and industries.

William Gibson

“The future is already here – it’s just unevenly distributed.”

While information technology is very much the engine driving the knowledge age, the bulk of future innovation and ensuing economic growth is less likely to be driven by the technologies and products coming from labs than from their applications outside the laboratory. Activities that involve people, either as providers or consumers of services, will be particularly significant. It will not be enough to build social networks of techies and entrepreneurs. The economic and cultural palette needs to be broader.

Irving Wladawsky-Berger, Vice President Technical Strategy, IBM

THANK YOU!

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