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Juha Schweighofer, D.Sc.

PIANC PTGCC Meeting, Koblenz, October 4th, 2012

Inland waterways and extreme weather – EWENT and ECCONET projects‘ results

Source: Aker Arctic

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Content

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• EWENT - ECCONET

• Extreme weather effects on inland waterway transport

• Climate change projections

• Adaptation measures

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� Priority Project 18: "Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube"

The Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube waterway as TEN-T axis

North Sea

Black Sea

Rhine

Main

Main-Danube Canal

Danube

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via donau sites & course of Austrian Danube

350 km Danube9 Danube locks9 Company locations270 Employees

Passau

Wachau

Bratislava

east of Vienna

• Founded in 2005 on the legal basis of the Austrian Waterway Act

• 100% ownership by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology

Lock

Head office

Site

Office

78% impounded sections2 free-flowing sections

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EWENT – Example Danube

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ECCONET

• Effects of climate change

on the inland waterway networks

• Funded within FP7 by the European Commission

• Duration: 2010 – 2012

• Website: www.ecconet.eu

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ECCONET - Consortium

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Water regime

Based on Moser, presentation given at Kongress der Zentralkommission

für die Rheinschifffahrt, 2009, Bonn.

Source:

via donau

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Drought – capacity utilisation

• Reduced cargo capacity utilisation

• Duration long (2003, 2011)

Draught [m]

Dea

dw

eig

ht

[t]

Draught [m]

Dea

dw

eig

ht

[t]

Source: DST

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Drought – sailing times

• Increase

• Increased fuel conumption

Source: Modified after DST

Low water Sufficient water

Ship speed [km/h]

De

live

red

po

we

r P

D[k

W]

800 KW

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Drought – specific costs

• Increase

• Small vessels

less sensitiveYear

Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs

Year

Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs

Development of the specific transport costs of a large motor cargo vessel (GMS)

and a small motor cargo vessel (Gustav Königs) as a function of the water depth.

Transport of bulk cargo from Rotterdam to Basel. Source: DST.

Large vessel Small vessel

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Drought – accidents

• Grounding

Development of grounding events on the Upper and Middle Rhine within 2002 and 2010. Based on WSD Südwest.

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High water – suspension of navigation

• When HNWL reached

• Depending on area

• Often short lasting phenomenon

Austrian stretch

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High water – river morphology

• Sedimentation • Aschach on the Danube:

• 13.8.2002: 1 800 000 m3

• Total in 2002: 5 000 000 m3

• Aggradation

• Damage of towpaths

• Damage of banks and flood protection installations

• Recent example: August 2002

• Costs e.g.:

Austrian Danube: 3 Mill EUR (2002)

and 2 Mill EUR (2003)

Total transport infrastructure: 110 Mill EUR

Changes in the river cross-section geometry of the Danube

at river kilometre 1887.1 in 2002, being partly caused by the flood

in August.

9.1.2002 4.4.2002 10.10.2002

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Ice (1)

• Prevented operation of locks

• Damage of navigation signs

and installations on banks

• Suspension of navigation

• Impact locally different

Ice occurrence in locks on the Danube preventing

their operation. Source: via donau.

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Ice (2)

Rhine: no suspension due to ice since 1970!

0 0DAYS

DAYS

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Ice (3)

Austrian stretch

Main-Danube Canal

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Other weather phenomena

• Wind, storms:

• Increased requirements on maneuverability and

course stability

• Main cause for accidents due to environmental

reasons

• Reduced visibility

• Reduced speed or interruption of navigation

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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (1)

• Floods (end 21st century)

• Finland, Russia,

South Spain:

• 100-year return levels

of river discharge

(floods): decrease

• Rest of Europe:

• almost no changes

or increase of floods

⇒ Consideration of floods

will gain importance

Source: Peseta

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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (2)

• Rhine

• Low water NM7Q

• Summer:

• almost no change till 2050 for all relevant gauges (KLIWAS, ECCONET)

• Significant decrease by 42% by KNMI06 W+ at Lobith

• Winter:

moderate increase in discharge

• Mean discharges: no clear tendency

• 100-year return levels of discharge:

• No changes till 2100 by Peseta

• No suspension of navigation due to ice on the Upper and Central Rhine since 1970!

Source: ECCONET Del. 1.3, 2012

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Climate change in Europe – hydrology (3)

• Upper Danube (till 2050)

• Annual discharge: slightly decreasing

• Maximum discharge: slightly decreasing

• Minimum discharge: almost no change

• Till 2100 changes become significant

• 100-year return levels (floods, Peseta):

• Upper and Central Danube:

No change (A2) or moderate increase (B2)

• Lower Danube:

No change (A2) or significant increase (B2) Source: ECCONET Deliverable 1.3

Danube at Vienna 2021 - 2050

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Climate change in Europe - glaciers

• Glaciers – influence of melting ice on discharge:

• Currently most significant in August 10 % (Achleiten, Glowa Danube)

• Vienna most significant in August 2% (Pöyry Energy GmbH)

• Vanishing glaciers only little or negligible influence on discharge of Danube

• Ice occurrence decreasing

Tem

per

atu

re[°

C]

Tem

per

atu

re[°

C]

Air and water temperature of the

Danube in Austria increasing

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Climate change in Europe – visibility and wind

• Reduced visibility clearly decreasing for most airports in Europe

• Indication for better visibility conditions in IWT

• Wind gusts till 2050:almost no change in the Rhine-Main-Danube corridor Source: ESSL- European Severe Storms Laboratory

(Pieter Groenemeijer), EWENT Deliverable 2.1

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Effects of climate change on navigation (qualitative)

Source: ECCONET, Deliverable 1.4, 2012

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Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (1)

RLWL+0,5

• Measures with significant effect on nature problematic

• Integrative approach recommended (e.g. Joint Statement)

• First measures to be taken now (improved maintenance)

• High potential for improvement related to waterway management and usage of ICT

• On medium and long term:

• infrastructure measures (e.g. groynes)

• local framework conditions

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Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (2)

RLWL+0,5

• Commitment by the EC related to promotion of IWT /TEN-T projects)

• Internationally agreed standards are to be fulfilled =>

• Inland waterway transport will benefit from infrastructure measures

• Fairway conditions expected to be better than today

• Provision of determined fairway conditions allows the economical usage of the current fleet as well as the proper design of the future fleet as framework conditions are known

• High water occurrence and floods need to be considered more in detail

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Summary

RLWL+0,5

• Extreme weather events problem today

• Uncertainties are still high

• Floods are not projected to decrease for European waterways (except Finnland, Russia and South Spain)

• Low water: No convincing evidence for increase in severity till 2050

• Ice occurrence is decreasing

• Visibilty is impoving

• Wind activity in the Rhine-Main Danube corridor: almost no change

• Rhine-Main-Danube corridor:• No decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to

climate change till 2050

• Research need: Central and Lower Danube

• First adaptation measures: infrastructure

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Is there something positive about climate change?

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Juha Schweighofer, D. Sc., MRINAvia donau – Österreichische Wasserstraßen-Gesellschaft mbH

A-1220 Wien, Donau-City-Straße 1Tel +43 50 4321 1624, Fax +43 50 4321 1050juha.schweighofer@via-donau.org, www.via-donau.org