ingenuity theory: adaptation failure and societal crisis
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Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis Thomas Homer-DixonTRANSCRIPT
INGENUITY THEORY:Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis
Waterloo Institute on Complexity and InnovationWaterloo, Ontario
Thomas Homer-DixonCIGI Chair of Global Systems
Balsillie School of International Affairs
January 13 2009
THREE VIEWS OF THE EFFECTS OFRESOURCE SCARCITY ON PROSPERITY
Central Question: Will increasing scarcity limit economic development?
Neo-Malthusian ViewYes, human development is constrained
by strict physical limits
Neoclassical viewNo, with the right economic
institutions (especially markets)humans can increase their
prosperity indefinitely
Distributional viewPerhaps, but the question is
secondary; what really mattersis the social distribution
of resources
H.G. WellsH.G. Wells
““Hard imaginative Hard imaginative thinking has not thinking has not increased so as to increased so as to keep pace with the keep pace with the expansion and expansion and complications of human complications of human societies and societies and organizations.” This organizations.” This is “the darkest shadow is “the darkest shadow upon the hopes of upon the hopes of mankind.”mankind.”
Are our problems Are our problems becoming harder?becoming harder?
Two Questions
If so, can we solve If so, can we solve them?them?
Most definitely
Too often not
Are there ultimate constraints Are there ultimate constraints on human development?on human development?
Larger Question
It depends on how we define “development.” But, by the currentdefinition, yes.
Economic paradigmHuman beings are:Human beings are:““Rational ConsumersRational Consumers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Consumption/production;Consumption/production;Investment/savingInvestment/saving
Factors of production (or system inputs):Factors of production (or system inputs):Capital and labor Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideasSometimes land and ideas
Ingenuity paradigmHuman beings are:Human beings are:““Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”
Key concepts:Key concepts:Ingenuity Ingenuity requirementrequirement and and supplysupply
Factors of problem-solvingFactors of problem-solving(or system inputs):(or system inputs):Matter, energy (work), and Matter, energy (work), and ingenuityingenuity
Human beings useHuman beings use ingenuity ingenuity
To guide the application ofTo guide the application of energy energy
To arrange theTo arrange the matter matter around themaround them(including materials and people)(including materials and people)
In ways that they hope will solveIn ways that they hope will solvetheir problemstheir problems
Sets of instructions Sets of instructions that tell us how to that tell us how to arrange the constituent arrange the constituent parts of our physical parts of our physical and social worlds in and social worlds in ways that help us ways that help us achieve our goals.achieve our goals.
Ingenuity
Two types of ingenuity
TechnicalTechnicalSocialSocial
Ingenuity Ingenuity GapGap
TimeTime
SupplySupply
RequiremenRequirementt
Value added of Ingenuity Theory:Value added of Ingenuity Theory:It gives us a metric to operationalize theIt gives us a metric to operationalize the““difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:• Compare the difficulty of diverse problems Compare the difficulty of diverse problems
across spaceacross space• Track the change in difficulty of a single Track the change in difficulty of a single
problem across timeproblem across time• Separate the issue of rising problem Separate the issue of rising problem
difficulty from the issue of our capacity to difficulty from the issue of our capacity to “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity gap).gap).
Once we separate the two sides of the gap,Once we separate the two sides of the gap,we can:we can:• Analyze the factors making our problems Analyze the factors making our problems
more difficultmore difficult• Analyze the factors determining whether Analyze the factors determining whether
we can keep up.we can keep up.
Length of SOIsLength of SOIs
or, more specificallyor, more specifically
Algorithmic complexity (with Algorithmic complexity (with if/then gates)if/then gates)
Measure of Ingenuity
Is our requirement Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?for ingenuity rising?
Six Factors Affecting our Ingenuity Requirement
1.1. Changing valuesChanging values
2.2. Extended time horizonExtended time horizon
3.3. Decreasing resourcesDecreasing resources
4.4. Rising complexityRising complexity
5.5. Increasing speedIncreasing speed
6.6. More surprisesMore surprises
1.1. Changing Changing valuesvalues
2.2. Extended Extended time horizontime horizon
3.3. Decreasing Decreasing resourcesresources
4.4. Rising Rising complexitycomplexity
5.5. Increasing Increasing pacepace
6.6. More More surprisessurprises
Factor:Factor: Relates to: Relates to: Assumes: Assumes: Affects: Affects:
DefinitionDefinitionofofproblemproblem
Inputs toInputs toproblemproblemsolvingsolving
IntrinsicIntrinsicfeaturesfeaturesofofproblemproblem
ConstrainedConstrainedSubstitutabilitySubstitutability
Law ofLaw ofrequisiterequisitevarietyvariety
MaintenanceMaintenancerequirementrequirement
ExtraordinaryExtraordinaryrequirementrequirement
Most obviously, complexity has risenMost obviously, complexity has risenbecause of:because of:
• Advances in informationAdvances in information technologytechnology
• Performance improvements atPerformance improvements at the level of system unitsthe level of system units (i.e., organizations, people,(i.e., organizations, people, technologies)technologies)
These changes produce moreThese changes produce morecomplex networks with:complex networks with:
• More nodesMore nodes
• A greater density of connectionsA greater density of connections among nodesamong nodes
• Faster movement of material,Faster movement of material, energy, and information alongenergy, and information along these connectionsthese connections
There are deeper explanations ofThere are deeper explanations ofrising complexity, at systemic level:rising complexity, at systemic level:Functional/evolutionary:Functional/evolutionary:
W. Brian ArthurW. Brian Arthur
• Structural deepeningStructural deepening• Niche fillingNiche filling• Software capturingSoftware capturing
Stochastic:Stochastic:
Gell-Mann:Gell-Mann:
• ““Frozen Accidents”Frozen Accidents”
There are deeper explanations ofThere are deeper explanations ofrising complexity, at societal level:rising complexity, at societal level:Functional:Functional:
Joseph TainterJoseph Tainter
Stream of exogenous problems; societies implementStream of exogenous problems; societies implementeasiest solutions first, which produces diminishing returnseasiest solutions first, which produces diminishing returns
Ecological:Ecological:
Buzz Holling:Buzz Holling:
Social units evolve to maximize productivity of availableSocial units evolve to maximize productivity of availableresources; emphasis on efficiency steadily raises complexityresources; emphasis on efficiency steadily raises complexity
Can we always supply the Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?ingenuity we need?
The ingenuity supply chain
BrainsBrains
ScienceScience
PoliticsPolitics
MarketsMarkets
THREE THINGS TO DO
2. Focus on increasing resilience2. Focus on increasing resilience
3. Use decentralized experimentation3. Use decentralized experimentation to search for solutions to search for solutions
1.1. Recognize complexity of problemsRecognize complexity of problems andand solutions solutions
1. Recognize complexity
Law of requisite variety:Law of requisite variety:
Complex problems require Complex problems require complex solutionscomplex solutions
Problem TypesProblem Types
ProblemProblem Solution Solution Primary Primary
DefinitionDefinition Locus ofLocus of
Problem Problem Solving Solving
Type IType I
Type IIType II
Type IIIType III
ClearClear
ClearClear
UnclearUnclear
ClearClear
UnclearUnclear
UnclearUnclear
LeaderLeader
Leader/Leader/ GroupGroup
GroupGroup
2. Increase resilienceResilience is the capability to withstandResilience is the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure
A resilient person A resilient person exhibitsexhibits
• Capacity for self-Capacity for self-reliancereliance
• Creativity in response Creativity in response to novel challengesto novel challenges
RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions
and societies . . .and societies . . .
have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure
3. Decentralize Response
Need to distinguish betweenNeed to distinguish betweentypes of problemtypes of problem
For faster and more thoroughFor faster and more thoroughexploration of “fitnessexploration of “fitnesslandscape”landscape”
Linked together within a looseLinked together within a loose information networkinformation network
Engaged in autonomousEngaged in autonomousexperimentationexperimentation
And willing toAnd willing to learn from failurelearn from failure
Decentralized response involves:
Multiple “agents” with diverse strategiesMultiple “agents” with diverse strategies
Two Problem-Solving ParadigmsTwo Problem-Solving Paradigms Conventional Complex Adaptive
Defining ontology Mechanistic Complex
Social organization Centralized/hierarchical Decentralized/distributed
Competence/Knowledge High, technocratic, explicit Mixed, experiential, tacit
Scale of testing Small number of large tests with high consequence of failure
Abundant small scale, safe-fail experimentation
Sources of legitimacy/power
Policy communities, management elites
Civil society, democratic action, markets
Social location Top Bottom and middle
Goal Optimization of expected utility (according to explicit, well-defined preferences)
Satisficing of multiple, often conflicting, and sometimes incommensurable values
Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2007Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2007