ingenuity theory: adaptation failure and societal crisis

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INGENUITY THEORY: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis Waterloo Institute on Complexity and Innovation Waterloo, Ontario Thomas Homer-Dixon CIGI Chair of Global Systems Balsillie School of International Affairs January 13 2009

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Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis Thomas Homer-Dixon

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Page 1: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

INGENUITY THEORY:Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Waterloo Institute on Complexity and InnovationWaterloo, Ontario

Thomas Homer-DixonCIGI Chair of Global Systems

Balsillie School of International Affairs

January 13 2009

Page 2: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

THREE VIEWS OF THE EFFECTS OFRESOURCE SCARCITY ON PROSPERITY

Central Question: Will increasing scarcity limit economic development?

Neo-Malthusian ViewYes, human development is constrained

by strict physical limits

Neoclassical viewNo, with the right economic

institutions (especially markets)humans can increase their

prosperity indefinitely

Distributional viewPerhaps, but the question is

secondary; what really mattersis the social distribution

of resources

Page 3: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

H.G. WellsH.G. Wells

““Hard imaginative Hard imaginative thinking has not thinking has not increased so as to increased so as to keep pace with the keep pace with the expansion and expansion and complications of human complications of human societies and societies and organizations.” This organizations.” This is “the darkest shadow is “the darkest shadow upon the hopes of upon the hopes of mankind.”mankind.”

Page 4: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Are our problems Are our problems becoming harder?becoming harder?

Two Questions

If so, can we solve If so, can we solve them?them?

Most definitely

Too often not

Page 5: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Are there ultimate constraints Are there ultimate constraints on human development?on human development?

Larger Question

It depends on how we define “development.” But, by the currentdefinition, yes.

Page 6: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Economic paradigmHuman beings are:Human beings are:““Rational ConsumersRational Consumers”

Key concepts:Key concepts:Consumption/production;Consumption/production;Investment/savingInvestment/saving

Factors of production (or system inputs):Factors of production (or system inputs):Capital and labor Capital and labor Sometimes land and ideasSometimes land and ideas

Page 7: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Ingenuity paradigmHuman beings are:Human beings are:““Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”Pragmatic Problem-Solvers”

Key concepts:Key concepts:Ingenuity Ingenuity requirementrequirement and and supplysupply

Factors of problem-solvingFactors of problem-solving(or system inputs):(or system inputs):Matter, energy (work), and Matter, energy (work), and ingenuityingenuity

Page 8: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Human beings useHuman beings use ingenuity ingenuity

To guide the application ofTo guide the application of energy energy

To arrange theTo arrange the matter matter around themaround them(including materials and people)(including materials and people)

In ways that they hope will solveIn ways that they hope will solvetheir problemstheir problems

Page 9: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Sets of instructions Sets of instructions that tell us how to that tell us how to arrange the constituent arrange the constituent parts of our physical parts of our physical and social worlds in and social worlds in ways that help us ways that help us achieve our goals.achieve our goals.

Ingenuity

Page 10: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Two types of ingenuity

TechnicalTechnicalSocialSocial

Page 11: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Ingenuity Ingenuity GapGap

TimeTime

SupplySupply

RequiremenRequirementt

Page 12: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Value added of Ingenuity Theory:Value added of Ingenuity Theory:It gives us a metric to operationalize theIt gives us a metric to operationalize the““difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:difficulty” of a problem. This allows us to:• Compare the difficulty of diverse problems Compare the difficulty of diverse problems

across spaceacross space• Track the change in difficulty of a single Track the change in difficulty of a single

problem across timeproblem across time• Separate the issue of rising problem Separate the issue of rising problem

difficulty from the issue of our capacity to difficulty from the issue of our capacity to “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity “keep up” (the two sides of the ingenuity gap).gap).

Page 13: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Once we separate the two sides of the gap,Once we separate the two sides of the gap,we can:we can:• Analyze the factors making our problems Analyze the factors making our problems

more difficultmore difficult• Analyze the factors determining whether Analyze the factors determining whether

we can keep up.we can keep up.

Page 14: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Length of SOIsLength of SOIs

or, more specificallyor, more specifically

Algorithmic complexity (with Algorithmic complexity (with if/then gates)if/then gates)

Measure of Ingenuity

Page 15: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Is our requirement Is our requirement for ingenuity rising?for ingenuity rising?

Page 16: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Six Factors Affecting our Ingenuity Requirement

1.1. Changing valuesChanging values

2.2. Extended time horizonExtended time horizon

3.3. Decreasing resourcesDecreasing resources

4.4. Rising complexityRising complexity

5.5. Increasing speedIncreasing speed

6.6. More surprisesMore surprises

Page 17: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

1.1. Changing Changing valuesvalues

2.2. Extended Extended time horizontime horizon

3.3. Decreasing Decreasing resourcesresources

4.4. Rising Rising complexitycomplexity

5.5. Increasing Increasing pacepace

6.6. More More surprisessurprises

Factor:Factor: Relates to: Relates to: Assumes: Assumes: Affects: Affects:

DefinitionDefinitionofofproblemproblem

Inputs toInputs toproblemproblemsolvingsolving

IntrinsicIntrinsicfeaturesfeaturesofofproblemproblem

ConstrainedConstrainedSubstitutabilitySubstitutability

Law ofLaw ofrequisiterequisitevarietyvariety

MaintenanceMaintenancerequirementrequirement

ExtraordinaryExtraordinaryrequirementrequirement

Page 18: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Most obviously, complexity has risenMost obviously, complexity has risenbecause of:because of:

• Advances in informationAdvances in information technologytechnology

• Performance improvements atPerformance improvements at the level of system unitsthe level of system units (i.e., organizations, people,(i.e., organizations, people, technologies)technologies)

Page 19: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

These changes produce moreThese changes produce morecomplex networks with:complex networks with:

• More nodesMore nodes

• A greater density of connectionsA greater density of connections among nodesamong nodes

• Faster movement of material,Faster movement of material, energy, and information alongenergy, and information along these connectionsthese connections

Page 20: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

There are deeper explanations ofThere are deeper explanations ofrising complexity, at systemic level:rising complexity, at systemic level:Functional/evolutionary:Functional/evolutionary:

W. Brian ArthurW. Brian Arthur

• Structural deepeningStructural deepening• Niche fillingNiche filling• Software capturingSoftware capturing

Stochastic:Stochastic:

Gell-Mann:Gell-Mann:

• ““Frozen Accidents”Frozen Accidents”

Page 21: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

There are deeper explanations ofThere are deeper explanations ofrising complexity, at societal level:rising complexity, at societal level:Functional:Functional:

Joseph TainterJoseph Tainter

Stream of exogenous problems; societies implementStream of exogenous problems; societies implementeasiest solutions first, which produces diminishing returnseasiest solutions first, which produces diminishing returns

Ecological:Ecological:

Buzz Holling:Buzz Holling:

Social units evolve to maximize productivity of availableSocial units evolve to maximize productivity of availableresources; emphasis on efficiency steadily raises complexityresources; emphasis on efficiency steadily raises complexity

Page 22: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis
Page 23: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Can we always supply the Can we always supply the ingenuity we need?ingenuity we need?

Page 24: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

The ingenuity supply chain

BrainsBrains

ScienceScience

PoliticsPolitics

MarketsMarkets

Page 25: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

THREE THINGS TO DO

2. Focus on increasing resilience2. Focus on increasing resilience

3. Use decentralized experimentation3. Use decentralized experimentation to search for solutions to search for solutions

1.1. Recognize complexity of problemsRecognize complexity of problems andand solutions solutions

Page 26: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

1. Recognize complexity

Law of requisite variety:Law of requisite variety:

Complex problems require Complex problems require complex solutionscomplex solutions

Page 27: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Problem TypesProblem Types

ProblemProblem Solution Solution Primary Primary

DefinitionDefinition Locus ofLocus of

Problem Problem Solving Solving

Type IType I

Type IIType II

Type IIIType III

ClearClear

ClearClear

UnclearUnclear

ClearClear

UnclearUnclear

UnclearUnclear

LeaderLeader

Leader/Leader/ GroupGroup

GroupGroup

Page 28: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

2. Increase resilienceResilience is the capability to withstandResilience is the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure

A resilient person A resilient person exhibitsexhibits

• Capacity for self-Capacity for self-reliancereliance

• Creativity in response Creativity in response to novel challengesto novel challenges

Page 29: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions

and societies . . .and societies . . .

have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure

Page 30: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

3. Decentralize Response

Need to distinguish betweenNeed to distinguish betweentypes of problemtypes of problem

For faster and more thoroughFor faster and more thoroughexploration of “fitnessexploration of “fitnesslandscape”landscape”

Page 31: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis
Page 32: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis
Page 33: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

Linked together within a looseLinked together within a loose information networkinformation network

Engaged in autonomousEngaged in autonomousexperimentationexperimentation

And willing toAnd willing to learn from failurelearn from failure

Decentralized response involves:

Multiple “agents” with diverse strategiesMultiple “agents” with diverse strategies

Page 34: Ingenuity Theory: Adaptation Failure and Societal Crisis

 

Two Problem-Solving ParadigmsTwo Problem-Solving Paradigms  Conventional Complex Adaptive

Defining ontology Mechanistic Complex

Social organization Centralized/hierarchical Decentralized/distributed

Competence/Knowledge High, technocratic, explicit Mixed, experiential, tacit

Scale of testing Small number of large tests with high consequence of failure

Abundant small scale, safe-fail experimentation

Sources of legitimacy/power

Policy communities, management elites

Civil society, democratic action, markets

Social location Top Bottom and middle

Goal Optimization of expected utility (according to explicit, well-defined preferences)

Satisficing of multiple, often conflicting, and sometimes incommensurable values

Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2007Thomas Homer-Dixon, 2007