Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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India's Foreign Trade Statistics

Each country tries to increase the availability of goods and services to its people through purchase from other countries . Similarly it tries to sell its surplus production to other countries . Buying of goods from other countries is called imports and selling of good to others countries is called exports. Both exports and import constitute to the foreign trade of a country . However, foreign trade does not include sale purchase of only goods but also that of services shipping, insurance, banking , constancy services etc. Here , we will take into account India's Foreign Trade.

Composition of India's Exports Composition of exports means goods that we are selling to other countries . At time of Independence, our exports consisted mainly of Agricultural Products like tea, spices, tobacco, and other raw materials etc. With industrialization composition of exports have undergone a change . Many raw materials that we exported earlier are now being used in newly developed industries . Efforts were made to diversify and expand our exports. It was necessary as imports were increasing . India's exports are now divided into four broad categories.

Export data over the years in the exports is as shown below. (in US $ Million).

Commodity / Year 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2008-09

I. Primary Products 7256.9 7126.2 16377.4 25335.4

II. Manufactured Goods 23747 34335.2 72562.8 123148.9

III. Petroleum Products 453.7 1869.7 11639.6 27547

IV. Others (All Commodities)

337.3 1229.2 2510.7 9263.7

Total Exports 31794.9 44560.3 103090.5 185295

Goods Export's Composition

Primary Products

Petroleum Products

Manufactured Goods

Others

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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Source: Table 129 : Exports of Principal Commodities - US Dollar , Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 15 Sep 2010

Primary Products are further divided into two categories;

The top items of agricultural exports are Rice, Oil Meals, Marine Products and Spices.

Commodity / Year 1995-96 2000-01

2005-06 2008-09

A. Agriculture and Allied Products 6081.9 5973.2 10213.8 17534.9

B. Ores and Minerals 1174.9 1153 6163.6 7800.5 ( US $ Million) , Source: Table 129 : Exports of Principal Commodities - US Dollar , Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy,

15 Sep 2010

Primary Products

Agricultural and Allied Products

Ores and Minerals

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August 23, 2011

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Manufactured goods are also divided further as follows:

Commodity / Year 2000-01 2008-09

A. Leather and Manufactures 1944.4 3556

B. Chemicals and Related Products 5885.9 22708.1

C. Engineering Goods 6818.6 47285.6

D. Textile and Textile Products 11285 20016.4

E. Gems and Jewellery 7384 27955.2

F. Handicrafts (excluding Handmade Carpets)

661.5 300.9

G. Other Manufactured Goods 355.8 1326.7 ( US $ Million), Source: Table 129 : Exports of Principal Commodities - US Dollar , Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy,

15 Sep 2010

Manufactured Goods

Leather and Manufactures

Chemicals and Related Products

Engineering GoodsTextile and Textile

ProductsGems and Jewellery

Handicrafts (excluding

Handmade Carpets)

Other Manufactured Goods

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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Petroleum Products consists of mineral fuels and lubricants. The export in petroleum products have increased over the period of time.

Commodity / Year 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2008-09

I. Primary Products 22.82% 15.99% 15.89% 13.67%

II. Manufactured Goods 74.69% 77.05% 70.39% 66.46%

III. Petroleum Products 1.43% 4.20% 11.29% 14.87%

IV. Others (All Commodities)

1.06% 2.76% 2.44% 5.00%

Different categories as percentage of total exports.

Source: Table 129 : Exports of Principal Commodities - US Dollar , Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 15 Sep 2010

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August 23, 2011

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From the period 1990-91 till 2008-09 some of the Indian exports have move up the value addition chain whereby instead of exporting raw materials , the country has switched over to export of processed goods.

Composition of India's Imports At the time of independence , our country was primarily agricultural economy. Industry was not so much developed. The partition of the country , however brought food shortage because our wheat growing areas remained with Pakistan. Therefore India had to import large quantities of food grains and other goods, for the same reason we had to import large quantity of raw cotton and raw jute. With the development of economy over the years, there was a marked change in the composition of imports. Economic development required setting up of new industries , modernisation of agriculture and industry . For this, capital goods like machinery , transport equipment, and raw materials, chemicals and fertilizers, petroleum products etc. are imported. Our major imports now comprise of capital goods, metals and minerals, chemicals and fertilizers, petroleum, oil and lubricants etc. which are required to meet the developmental needs of the country.

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August 23, 2011

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Bulk Consumption Goods consists of cereals and cereal preparations, edible oils , pulses, and sugar. Other bulk items consists of fertilizers, non-ferrous materials, paper and paper boards, crude rubber, pulp and waste paper, metal scrap and Metalliferrous ores, Iron and Steel Capital goods comprises of manufacturers of metals, machine tools, machinery, electronic goods, computer goods, transport equipment, project goods. Mainly export related materials will comprise of pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, organic and in-organic chemicals, textile yarn, cashew nuts.

Commodity / Year 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2008-09

I. Bulk Imports 39.03% 41.19% 40.95% 45.70%

II. Non-Bulk Imports

60.97% 58.81% 59.05% 54.30%

Total Imports 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Comparison of Bulk and Non Bulk Imports as % of total Imports. Source: Table 129 : Exports of Principal Commodities - US Dollar , Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, 15 Sep 2010

Import Composition

Bulk Imports

Petroleum, Crude and Products

Bulk Consumption

Goods

Other Bulk Items

Non-Bulk Imports

Capital GoodsMainly Export Related Items

Others

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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India's Trade with China

S.No. \Year 2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

1. EXPORT 6,759.10 8,321.86 10,871.34 9,353.50 11,617.88

2. %Growth

23.12 30.64 -13.96 24.21

3. India's Total Export 103,090.53 126,414.05 163,132.18 185,295.36 178,751.43

4. %Growth

22.62 29.05 13.59 -3.53

5. %Share 6.56 6.58 6.66 5.05 6.50

6. IMPORT 10,868.05 17,475.03 27,146.41 32,497.02 30,824.02

7. %Growth

60.79 55.34 19.71 -5.15

8. India's Total Import 149,165.73 185,735.24 251,654.01 303,696.31 288,372.88

9. %Growth

24.52 35.49 20.68 -5.05

10. %Share 7.29 9.41 10.79 10.70 10.69

11. TOTAL TRADE 17,627.15 25,796.89 38,017.74 41,850.52 42,441.90

12. %Growth

46.35 47.37 10.08 1.41

13. India's Total Trade 252,256.26 312,149.29 414,786.19 488,991.67 467,124.31

14. %Growth

23.74 32.88 17.89 -4.47

15. %Share 6.99 8.26 9.17 8.56 9.09

16. TRADE BALANCE

17. India's Trade Balance -46,075.20 -59,321.19 -88,521.83 -

118,400.95 -

109,621.45

India & China signed a Trade Agreement in 1984 which provided for Most Favoured Nation Treatment and later in 1994, the two countries signed an agreement to avoid double taxation. The bilateral trade crossed US$13.6 billion in 2004 from US$ 4.8 billion in 2002, reaching $18.7 billion in 2005. The India China trade relations have been further developed from 2006, with the initiation of the border trade between Tibet, an autonomous region of China, and India through Nathu La Pass, reopened after more than 40 years. The leaders of both the countries have decided to enhance the bilateral trade to US$ 20 billion by 2008 and further to US$ 30 billion by 2010. According to the Indian Commerce Minister, Kamal Nath, China would soon become India's largest trade partner within the next 2-3 years, after the US and Singapore.

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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The principal items of Indian exports to China are ores, slag and ash, iron and steel, plastics, organic chemicals, and cotton. In order to increase the extent of exporting Indian goods to China, however, there should be a special emphasis on investments and trade in services and knowledge-based sectors. The other potential items of trade between India and China are marine products, oil seeds, salt, inorganic chemicals, plastic, rubber, optical and medical equipment, and dairy products. Great potential also exists in areas like biotechnology, IT and ITES, health, education, tourism, and financial sector. The main items that comprise Chinese exports to India are electrical machinery and equipment, cement, organic chemicals, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, silk, mineral fuels, and oils. Value added items like electrical machinery dominates Chinese exports to India. This exhibits that Chinese exports to India are fairly diversified and includes resource-based products, manufactured items, and low and medium technology products. It is said that if India is to capture the markets of China and enjoy profits, then it would have to discover new merchandise and branch out its exports to China

India's Trade with US

S.No. \Year 2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

1. EXPORT 17,353.06 18,863.47 20,731.34 21,149.53 19,535.49

2. %Growth

8.70 9.90 2.02 -7.63

3. India's Total Export 103,090.53 126,414.05 163,132.18 185,295.36 178,751.43

4. %Growth

22.62 29.05 13.59 -3.53

5. %Share 16.83 14.92 12.71 11.41 10.93

6. IMPORT 9,454.74 11,738.24 21,067.24 18,561.42 16,973.68

7. %Growth

24.15 79.48 -11.89 -8.55

8. India's Total Import 149,165.73 185,735.24 251,654.01 303,696.31 288,372.88

9. %Growth

24.52 35.49 20.68 -5.05

10. %Share 6.34 6.32 8.37 6.11 5.89

11. TOTAL TRADE 26,807.80 30,601.71 41,798.58 39,710.95 36,509.17

12. %Growth

14.15 36.59 -4.99 -8.06

13. India's Total Trade 252,256.26 312,149.29 414,786.19 488,991.67 467,124.31

14. %Growth

23.74 32.88 17.89 -4.47

15. %Share 10.63 9.80 10.08 8.12 7.82

16. TRADE BALANCE 7,898.32 7,125.23 2,588.12 2,561.82

17. India's Trade Balance -46,075.20 -59,321.19 -88,521.83 -

118,400.95 -

109,621.45

India US Trade Relations is the significant aspect of the global and strategic partnership existing between the two countries, United States and India. The India US Trade Relations over the years have grown to reach US $ 31.917 billion in 2006. The premiers of both the nations believe that the cordial India US Trade Relations will have a long lasting and positive influence on the future international system, promoting stability, democracy, prosperity and peace across the world. The significant features of the India US Trade Relations are as follows:

The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership provides a more transparent U.S. licensing

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August 23, 2011

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arrangements for Indian imports of sensitive items and technology. This in turn have lead to an enhancement in the high-tech trade between the two countries.

The India US Trade Relations was further boosted with the conclusion of an Open Skies Agreement between the two nations in the year 2005. This agreement is supposed to increase the air connectivity between the two countries, thereby improving the commercial and trade relations.

The visits of US Commerce Secretary Gutierrez and USTR Susan Schwab in this year has been a great impetus for the India US Trade Relations highlighting the multilateral issues including those on the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations.

The US-India Agricultural Alliance agreed upon on 2005, between the two countries concentrates on promoting teaching, research, service and commercial linkages. In the following year under the bilateral Knowledge Initiative on Agriculture there was an agreement to link universities, technical institutions and businesses to support agriculture education, joint research and capacity building projects specially in biotechnology.

Outsourcing of knowledge work to India by the US based companies is a significant feature of the India US Trade Relations as producing goods and services in India makes them cheaper in the US.

The India US Trade Relations is also characterized by the inter-dependence in terms of financial markets as US institutional investors are increasingly investing in India and on the other hand Indian multinational corporations are going on buying companies in the US and establishing operations in the US.

Areas like infrastructure, IT, Telecom sector, energy and other knowledge industries such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, are the favourite areas for economic cooperation between India and the US. Some of the major multinational corporations of USA doing a profitable business in India are- General Electric, Whirlpool Ford (India), 3M, Tecumseh Products (India) Limited, Pepsi, Proctor and Gamble (India), Microsoft, Intel, and IBM Corporation.

Export from India to US : The main export items from India to US are like precious gems and jewellery, textiles, organic chemicals and engineering goods, IT and agricultural products. In 2006, it is found that the total amount of Indian exports to the US increased by 16.07%. US Export to India : The main items of US exports to India. are machinery, precious stones and metals, organic chemicals, optical and medical instruments, aircraft and aviation machinery with the total amount increased by 26.31% in 2006.

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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Trends in Foreign Trade of India

Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India; IndiaStat Database (2008).

During the period of 1970-1991 exports performance improved. Government had taken initiatives in late 1960s like establishing Indian Institute of Foreign Trade and others for promoting foreign trade. The world economy was also growing fast in 1970s. The export growth rate was 15.8 percent in 1970s before slowing down to 8 percent in 1980s.During 1970s, imports growth rate also picked up and in fact was higher than growth rate of exports. The contribution of foreign trade to GDP again reached to 11.8 per cent, the same level as on 1950-51. The export boom of the 1970s, however, could not be maintained during the first half of the 1980s. As the growth rate of world exports turned negative in the aftermath of the second oil price hike, India’s exports decelerated sharply. During the second half of the 1980s, however, the world economy recovered and India’s exports grew at a healthy pace (17.8 per cent). There was a genuine improvement in the export competitiveness of India during this period due to a major depreciation of the REER and increased

Vaibhav Gupta

August 23, 2011

International Trade and Policy, MIB, DSE

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export subsidies.

Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India; IndiaStat Database (2008).

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August 23, 2011

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Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India; IndiaStat Database (2008).

Conclusion Indian foreign trade has progressed a lot over the last sixty years since Independence. The period can be divided into three sub-periods of 1950-1970, 1971-1991 and post-1991.The trade has stagnated and India lost its market share to other countries in 1950s and 1960s.The government policies and dominant views of import substitution and export pessimism has a negative impact. The situation improved in 1970s and exports has finally picked up in post liberalization era in general and after 2002 in particular. In terms of composition, now it is dominated by manufactured goods and services. Services exports contribution has grown rapidly in recent past. India services exports share in global exports is more than double of that of Indian manufacturing exports In terms of direction, it is now more distributed around the world and the share of East Asian countries his on rise in overall trade. Looking at the large size of the economy, the high growth rates and small share in world trade; with the help of economic theories, we can safely conclude that there is huge untapped potential for Indian foreign trade in years to come.