Where are we heading?

India Solar Market

Deepak RodhiyaSales and Business Development

Vikram Solar

Module prices trend(Jan’11-Sep’16)

y = -0.0004x + 17.396R² = 0.7225

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

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16

Global BlendedModules prices are decreasing at the slope of -0.0004 or -0.04% every week since Jan’11

Module prices trend(Jan’16-Sep’16)

$0.55

$0.40

y = -0.0005x + 20.506R² = 0.903

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$0.60

06/01/2016 06/02/2016 06/03/2016 06/04/2016 06/05/2016 06/06/2016 06/07/2016 06/08/2016 06/09/2016

Global Blended

Modules prices decreasing trend become more fierce this year and slope decreased to -0.0005 or -0.05%

Cells prices trend(Jan’16-Sep’16)

$0.33

$0.19

$0.31

$0.20

y = -0.0005x + 23.492R² = 0.9182

y = -0.0004x + 18.262R² = 0.7441

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

06/01/2016 06/02/2016 06/03/2016 06/04/2016 06/05/2016 06/06/2016 06/07/2016 06/08/2016 06/09/2016

Multi Mono Linear (Multi) Linear (Mono)

Multi-crystalline cells prices which were higher to monocrystalline in Jan’16 decreased more steeply(-0.0005 to -0.0004) and became lower in Apr’16

Dec-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16

Haryanastatepolicy

150 MW

NTPC AP350 MW

NTPC Raj420 MW

NTPC UP100 MW

Uttarakhand State

Policy170 MW

Jharkhand StatePolicy

1000 MW

Karnataka StatePolicy

910 MW

SECI UP125 MW

NTPCKAR 500

MW

SECI AP400 MW

SECI KAR920 MW

SECI CHH100 MW

SECI GUJ160 MW

NTPC RAJ130 MW

SECI OD270 MW

SECIMAHA

450 MW

Series1 5.08 4.63 4.35 4.78 5.77 5.36 5.04 4.78 4.79 4.868 4.962 4.864 4.957 4.35 4.794 4.571

5.08

4.634.35

4.78

5.775.36

5.044.78 4.79 4.868 4.962 4.864 4.957

4.35

4.7944.571

We

igh

ted

Ave

rage

Tar

iff

Tariff Trend (OCR)

Tariff Trend (OCR)Major reason

Decrease in Module Prices

Note: VGF bids are changed to equivalent value using LCOE financial model

Tariff Trend (DCR)

Dec-15 Mar-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

NTPC, AP/2,DCR(3x50)

NTPC, RAJ/04,DCR (10x10)

MW

SECIORDINANCE

FACTORY,BHANDRA,

NAGPUR 2MW

SECIORDINANCE

FACTORY,Ambajhari,

5MW NAGPUR

SECI NSM, MH50 MW

NTPC TEL 50MWDCR

SECI Kar 50MWNTPC, KR, DCR

100 MWSECI 25MW

Gujarat

Series1 5.12 5.07 5.56 5.31 5.01 5.19 5.39 4.85 5.33

5.125.07

5.56

5.31

5.01

5.19

5.39

4.85

5.33

We

igh

ted

Ave

rage

Tar

iff

The DCR tariffs are comparatively higher but

reducing at higher rate than OCR tariffs

Note: VGF bids are changed to equivalent value using LCOE financial model

Major Reasons of Decrease in tariff

Decline in Module and BoS

costs

Larger size of projects leading to economy of

scale

Some projects are bid with

lower return to gain entry in the

Indian solar market

Majority of foreign investors

has bid aggressively for solar park bids where the land acquisition and developmental

risk in not involved. For

example: NTPC, SECI Bids

500

500

450

300

230

210

195

150135125125120100

100100

100100

100

1980

Waaree Energies Pvt Ltd Vikram Solar Pvt Ltd Goldi Green Technoligies Pvt Ltd Tata Power Solar Systems Limited

Moser Baer Solar Limited XL Energy Ltd. Solar Semiconductor Emmvee Photovoltics Pvt Ltd

Navitas Green Solutions Pvt. Ltd. Satvik Panchwakra Solar Surana Solar

Websol Energy System Liited TITAN Energy Systems Ltd Alpex Exports Pvt Ltd Sova Power Limited

HHV Solar Tehnologies Pvt Ltd Rohini Solar others

Largest manufacturing capacity- Vikram

Solar(9%) and WareeSolar(9%)

63 companies in ‘others’ category have manufacturing

capacities up to 90MW

81 Manufacturers

Total Installed capacity-5620 MW

Many Small capacity players are entering into module manufactturing

Manufacturers of MODULES in India

Total Installed capacity-5620 MW

Manufacturers of CELLS in India

200

250

140150

60

132

120

50

30

12 10 810

40

Indosolar Ltd Moser Baer Solar Limited Tata Power Solar Systems Limited

Websol Energy System Liited XL Energy Ltd. Jupiter Solar Pvt. Ltd

Surana Solar Euro Multivision Ltd Solar Semiconductor

UPV Solar - Udhaya Energy Photovoltaics Pvt Maharishi Solar Technology Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL)

Central Electronics Limited Premier Solar Systems (P) Ltd

Moser Bear (250MW)-Largest manufacturer

Indo Solar (140MW)-First Largest

Manufacturer

Investment opportunities for DCR

projects

Total Installed capacity-1212 MW

Total 14 Companies

Major drivers of Indian Solar Market

100GW solar power by 2022.

RPO target for FY22 is 8% compared to 3% earlier which is a driver for the solar power sector.

Improving financial health of state DISCOMs after UDAY scheme.

Increasing competitiveness of solar power

Decrease in prices of raw materials for solar equipment manufacturing

Increasing Economy of Scale

Major Challenges to Indian Solar Dreams

Built up of evacuation

infrastructure

Timeliness of land

acquisition

Enforcement of RPO

Weak, though improving,

financial health of state

DISCOMs

Announcement Date

Target Company

AcquirerAcquirer Country

Deal Value

(Rscrore)

Impact

Feb-15 Green InfraSembcorp

UtilitiesSingapore 1051

Controlling stake in Green Infra

Sep-15BLP Energy Pvt

LtdENEL Green

PowerItaly 220

Majority stake in BLP Energy

May-16SE Solar, a SPV

of Suzlon Energy Ltd

CLP Group Hong Kong 73.549% stake in the solar

project

Jun-16Welspun

Renewable Energy Pvt Ltd

Tata Power Renewable Energy Ltd

India 92491140 MW of solar and

wind power assets

Jun-16Greenko Energy

HoldingsADIA & GIC UAE, USA 1559.4

Strategic investment from existing investor GIC and

ADIA

Jun-16Rooftop Project

of Sun Edison

Amplus, backed by US based PE firm I Squared

Capital

India/USNot

disclosed

7 MW rooftop operational portfolio

Recent major M&A activities and reason

Large players grow the solar portfolio through ready access to operational/pipeline of projects

To get project financing from larger companies. Small companies see M&A as a opportunity to get project financing

States with RPO of more than 1GW in FY 17-18

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500 4249

3363 33183037

19971737 1584 1579 1576 1541

13321154

Values in MW with RPO(4.75%)

Source of data: MNRE

Total 12 States with total RPO of 26.5 GW

States with Commissioned Capacity more than 300MW

Source of data: MNRE data as on 31st Oct’16

1555.41

1301.161138.19

968.05 963.79811.38

571.2

386.06 340.08

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Values in MW

Installed Capacity of India: 10 GW

Possible Installation in FY17: 5.1 GW

80+ Module manufacturers in India

14+ Cells manufacturers in India

Gist and Forecast

Forecasting CompanyGlobal MW

Cumulative by 2020

PVMA (medium scenario, 2015) 536 GW

IHS (10.5% CAGR, 2015) 566 GW

BNEF (New Energy Outlook 2015) 589 GW

Targ

etSt

ates Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Karnataka

Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Telangana

Global Installation Forecast

Thank You