Ashok Gulati and Shweta Saini(Chair Professor and Consultant, respectively)

Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

NCAER Workshop on ‘Medium Term Outlook for India’s Food Sector’ ,

June 26, 2014. New Delhi

Depends on Technology & delivery systems◦ Our productivity levels in rice, wheat and maize still

way below what current technology can provide◦ Challenge of delivering good seeds and farming

practices◦ Investments in irrigation will have large pay offs

Incentive Structures: ◦ Tilted towards wheat and rice through MSP regime◦ Broadly following global prices with some time lag

WPI- Cereals above is calculated for Rice, wheat and Maize only as the FAO Cereals’ Index comprises of these

Some notable ones are:

•Bhalla, Hazell and Kerr (1999): India will import 64-115 mt of grains by 2020

•Planning Commission (GoI, 2006): demand-supply deficit of 10 mt by 2011-12

•Binswanger, Parikh, et.al (2011): could be 70 mt of imports by 2039

Commodities Studies Demand Supply Gap (supply less

demand) Total Cereals Kumar

(1998)225 (4%) 248.4 (cons

TFP growth)23.4/

24.1/24.7224.3 (5%)

223.7 (7%) 229.2 (dec TFP growth)

4.2/4.9/5.5

Total Cereals PC (2006

)

214.3(4.8%) 207.66 -6.69

Pulses 19.9(4.8%) 16.06 -3.85

Total Food grains

234.2 (4.8%)

223.72 -10.48

Commodities Studies Demand Supply Supply-Demand Gap

Total Cereals Rosegrant et al. (1995)

237.3(at 3-4% PCY

growth)

237 -0.3

Total Cereals Kumar (1998)

267 (4%) 309.0 (cons TFP growth)

42/43.2/43.3

265.8 (5%)

265.7 (7%) 269.9 (dec TFP growth)

2.9/4.1/4.2

Total Cereals Bhalla et al. (1999)

257.25 (2%) 232.2 -25.1/-63.99/-142.53296.19 (3.7%)

374.73(6%) 259.9 2.65/-36.3/-114.83

Demand 2016-17 2020-21

Cereals (mt) 235 253

Pulses 22 25

Total grains 257 278

Supply Cereals 240-251

Pulses 18-21

Total 258-272

• A big unknown? Poultry-corn-soya showing trends

• How far will poultry and dairy go to demand grains as feed? Will structural transformation in dairy and poultry sector trigger this demand? 20? 30? 40? 50mt? in the next 10 years

• Currently shortage of fodder (dry, green) about 40%

• Will today’s exports of oilmeals be feeding our cattle tomorrow?

• Next 5-10 years, ample scope to raise productivity and production of grains for food and feed… question of right incentives and investments…

• India will keep feeding itself in cereals, except for some occasional dips caused by bad weather

• Will remain dependent on imports for edible oils unless some major policy decisions are taken to turn around (oil palm on one million hectares)…

Live to dressed, how many years/decades?

From road side slaughterhouse/vendor to organized systems…when will food safety concerns drive it? Any lessons from dairy?

Of legs and breasts! When will cut legs start pouring in? (import duty 100% in 2014)