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  • Improve the Usability!

    SAP APO DP Model tuning & training

    To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

    “Demand Planning LLC has an amazing ability to morph into employees of the company and tackle challenges head on.As a team they delivered on their commitments and institutionalized a new Statistical forecast process that fit within the business constraints.Demand Planning LLC has an uncanny ability to spot problems before they occur and gave world class training in terms of demand planning and statistical forecasting. A Must Hire if you are struggling with end to end SAP/APO Statistical

    forecasting processes & methods.”

    Project Leader, HoneyweLL

     “Demand Planning LLC was able to engage the entire team of planners in this effort and get them excited about statistical modeling.Coleman was quite pleased with the results from this project and the value received for the investment. We look for-

    ward to working with them on future SAP demand planning projects whenever the need arises.”

    Senior Director,coleman

  • To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

    SAP APO DP is a powerful software package – but the most misunderstood and under-used.

    • Do your planners create and calculate forecasts outside the system? • Do they just use APO as a tool to type in the forecasts and pass to APO SNP system?

    thiS iS where we come in…

    Our niche is to improve the usability and adoption of the planning system. On completion of the usability project, we help you fast track better demand forecasts and finished goods plans.

    what Do you get? On completion of the eight week engagement, you will experience new energy both in your system landscape as well as Planner confidence. • Optimized Statistical Models in your Planning Environment • Custom Developed Modeling Profiles – Uni-variate and MLR • Fine-tuned Automated Models • Precise Alert Settings • Exception Based Workflow – Enables you to forecast by exception • SKU/Customer Segmentation consistent with APO algorithms • Custom Developed Training and Reference Materials • Week long training program – Hands-on Modeling in your APO environment

    we juSt Don’t tell you what iS wrong • We help you fix it • We tune the APO modeling engine • We help develop the right set of Statistics • We give you the APO-based work-flow for the monthly cycle • We train them Hands on with your planning book, your numbers, and your business challenges!

    What is Usability?

  • To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

    33 Simple StepsTo APO usability and adoptionI. Assessment Business Diagnostic Review System configuration Compile usability findings Feedback

    11.Model Tuning Segmentation consistent with APO algorithms Model Matching Model Tuning & Profile Development Develop Statistical Models

    III.Training Develop Case Study Develop Business Scenarios in APO Material Development On-Site Training On-Going Expert Support

    “I just want to thank you again for a great workshop. I think it was one of the best I’ve attended. I got a lot out of the workshop and am looking for- ward to taking deeper dives into my forecasting analysis’ now that I have a better foundation to build from and an improved understanding of modeling and measuring. – Thanks again for everything “

    manager proDuction, materialS & inventory planning at combe

  • To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

    About Us Demand Planning, LLC is a consulting boutique comprised of seasoned experts with real-world supply chain experience and subject-matter expertise in demand forecasting, S&OP, Customer planning, and supply chain strategy. We provide process and strategy consulting services to customers across a variety of industries: pharmaceuticals, CPG, High-Tech, Foods and Beverage, Quick Service Restaurants and Utilities.

    Through our knowledge portal Demand Planning. Net, we offer a full menu of training programs through in-person and online courses in Demand Forecast Modeling, S&OP, Industry Forecasting, collaborative Forecasting using POS data.

    Demand Planning.Net, also offers a variety of informational articles and downloadable calculation templates, and a unique Demand Planning discussion forum.

    “Great instructors - great interaction, very knowledgeable. I learned a LOT! I really loved the workshop last week. I woke up this morning excited to come to work! On a Monday! Looking forward

    to Video Testimonial staying in touch!” DemanD planner at novozymeS

  • To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

    Sample Training Agenda DAY ONE Introduction to Forecasting: Theory & Practice 8:30AM-12PM Illustration of Demand components - Model Settings in APO DP - Illustration of Forecast Profiles in APO DP- Ex-post Forecasting in APO DP

    Data Maintenance and Analysis 1PM-3PM - Forecast Problem and Data collection - Data filtering - Measuring volatility - Process to Identify Outliers

    Modeling Segmentation & Data Pattern Evaluation 3:15PM-5PM - Modeling segmentation of SKUs using the Pareto analysis of Volume and volatility - Graphical decomposition of demand using Linear regression Models

    DAY THREE Modeling in APO DP 9AM-12:30PM - Trend Smoothing Models - Seasonal Models or Winters Models - Automatic Modeling with Strategy 50 - Time Dampening Profiles - Croston’s Models

    Work on Group Case Study and Discussion 1:30PM-4:30PM Develop Models in Test system to develop the solution for the case study – Interactive session with our SAP modeling experts.

    DAY TWO Modeling in APO DP 9AM-11:30AM - Internal workings of APO DP - Forecast Profile Selection Process - Modeling Strategies by Forecasting Need

    Assignment of Case Study and Discussion 11:30AM-12:30PM

    Open Modeling session 1:30PM-4:30PM Develop Models for individual Planners SKUs in Live or Test system – Interactive session with our SAP modeling experts.

    Modeling in APO DP 1:30PM-3:30PM - Trend Smoothing Models - Seasonal Models or Winters Models - Holt Winters Models - Automatic Modeling with Strategy 50 - Automatic Model 2 - Product Life Cycle impact on Forecasts - Time Dampening Profiles - Profiles for modeling increasing Trend - Croston’s Models

    DAY FOUR Error Measurement for Model Diagnostics: 8:30AM-10AM - Definition of Demand Forecast Errors - Definition of MPE, MAPE and RMSE - Model Diagnostics through Forecast Error - Tracking Signal Exception Management in SAP APO 10:30AM-12:30PM Alerts – Univariate Alerts – Forecast Comparison

    Case presentations 1:30PM-3:30PM - Group Discussion and Q&A on the Case. - Illustrate the answers through SAP APO examples on the screen.

    Proportional forecasting in APO DP 3:45PM-5PM - Phase-in Phase out - Forecasting levels - Top-down, Bottom-up and Middle-out

    “Moving averages rarely move?!”

    ?

  • Abbott Labs AVON Ahold USA Avery Dennison BAE Systems BASF Cabot Creamery Campbell Soup

    Celanese AG Clorox Eastman Kodak F. Schumaker FMC Corporation Fortune 500 Oil Co Glatfelter paper Grace Foods

    Harley Davidson Hershey’s Hewlett Packard Honeywell Hypertherm, Inc. IMP Aerospace John Deere Johnson & Johnson

    KNEX Kraft Foods Labatt Foods Labatt USA Lifetime Products Limited Brands McCain Foods New Balance

    Newell Rubbermaid Nomacorc NSTAR Electric NTN USA Optos Inc. OSRAM Sylvania Pacific Cycles Pizza Hut

    SAB Miller Sappi Fine Paper Skyworks Solutions Sunovion Teva Pharmaceuticals Texas Instruments US Navy Pfizer

    Clients

    Demand Planning LLC 26 Henshaw st.

    Woburn, MA 01801 Phone: (781) 995 0685

    Fax: (651) 305 5163

    Email: services at demandplanning.net Web: http://www.demandplanning.net

    1. Am I using a Pareto Approach in my APO planning process? 2. How can I leverage APO DP to improve our forecast accuracy? 3. Why does APO mostly give me flat forecasts? How do I fix this? 4. What are Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Sigma and Theta? How do I leverage these parameters? 5. What is the correct level to model so as to improve the overall accuracy at the SKU level? 6. What are weighting profiles? How does it affect my final forecast? 7. How can I control time trend using trend dampening profiles?

    8. Are there products and customers that are better left to APO’s automated modeling strategy? 9. Which models to choose for what family of SKUs? 10. What are custom modeling profiles? 11. How is APO helping us simplify and improve the promotional planning process? 12. How do I create Multiple Linear Regression Models in APO? 13. Are we using the system defined error metrics in APO? Why are they different from the classic MAPE calculations? 14. How do you conduct phase-in/phase-out of products? 15. When should I not use the Croston’s Model? 16. Why am I getting 9,000+ alerts every morning?

    Usability Project will answer the followi