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Improve the Usability!

SAP APO DPModel tuning & training

To schedule this workshop for your company, contact: services at demandplanning.net (781) 995-0685 www.DemandPlanning.net

“Demand Planning LLC has an amazing ability to morph into employees of the company and tackle challenges head on.As a team they delivered on their commitments and institutionalized a new Statistical forecast process that fit within the business constraints.Demand Planning LLC has an uncanny ability to spot problems before they occur and gave world class training in terms of demand planning and statistical forecasting. A Must Hire if you are struggling with end to end SAP/APO Statistical

forecasting processes & methods.”

Project Leader, HoneyweLL

“Demand Planning LLC was able to engage the entire team of planners in this effort and get them excited about statistical modeling.Coleman was quite pleased with the results from this project and the value received for the investment. We look for-

ward to working with them on future SAP demand planning projects whenever the need arises.”

Senior Director,coleman


SAP APO DP is a powerful software package – but the most misunderstood and under-used.

• Doyourplannerscreateandcalculateforecasts outside the system? • DotheyjustuseAPOasatooltotypeinthe forecasts and pass to APO SNP system?

thiS iS where we come in…

Our niche is to improve the usability and adoption of the planning system. On completion of the usability project,wehelpyoufasttrackbetterdemandforecastsandfinishedgoodsplans.

what Do you get?On completion of the eight week engagement, you will experience new energy both in your system landscapeaswellasPlannerconfidence. • OptimizedStatisticalModelsinyour Planning Environment • CustomDevelopedModelingProfiles– Uni-variateandMLR • Fine-tunedAutomatedModels • PreciseAlertSettings • ExceptionBasedWorkflow–Enablesyou to forecast by exception • SKU/CustomerSegmentationconsistent with APO algorithms • CustomDevelopedTrainingand ReferenceMaterials • Weeklongtrainingprogram–Hands-on ModelinginyourAPOenvironment

we juSt Don’t tell you what iS wrong • Wehelpyoufixit • WetunetheAPOmodelingengine • WehelpdeveloptherightsetofStatistics • WegiveyoutheAPO-basedwork-flowforthe monthly cycle • WetrainthemHandsonwithyour planning book, your numbers, and your business challenges!

WhatisUsability?


33 Simple StepsTo APO usability and adoptionI. Assessment BusinessDiagnostic ReviewSystemconfiguration Compileusabilityfindings Feedback

11.Model Tuning Segmentation consistent with APO algorithms ModelMatching ModelTuning&ProfileDevelopment DevelopStatisticalModels

III.Training DevelopCaseStudy DevelopBusinessScenariosinAPO MaterialDevelopment On-Site Training On-Going Expert Support

“I just want to thank you again for a great workshop. I think it was one of the best I’ve attended. I got a lot out of the workshop and am looking for-ward to taking deeper dives into my forecasting analysis’ now that I have a better foundation to build from and an improved understanding of modeling and measuring. – Thanks again for everything “

manager proDuction, materialS & inventory planning at combe


About UsDemand Planning, LLC is a consulting boutique comprised of seasoned experts with real-world supply chain experience and subject-matter expertise in demand forecasting, S&OP, Customer planning, and supply chain strategy. We provide process and strategy consulting services to customers across a variety of industries: pharmaceuticals, CPG, High-Tech, Foods and Beverage, Quick Service Restaurants and Utilities.

Through our knowledge portal Demand Planning.Net, we offer a full menu of training programs through in-person and online courses in Demand Forecast Modeling, S&OP, Industry Forecasting, collaborative Forecasting using POS data.

Demand Planning.Net, also offers a variety of informational articles and downloadable calculation templates, and a unique Demand Planning discussion forum.

“Great instructors - great interaction, very knowledgeable. I learned a LOT!I really loved the workshop last week. I woke up this morning excited to come to work! On a Monday! Looking forward

to Video Testimonial staying in touch!” DemanD planner at novozymeS


Sample Training AgendaDAY ONEIntroductiontoForecasting:Theory&Practice8:30AM-12PMIllustrationofDemandcomponents-ModelSettingsinAPODP-IllustrationofForecastProfilesinAPODP-Ex-postForecastinginAPODP

DataMaintenanceandAnalysis1PM-3PM-ForecastProblemandDatacollection-Datafiltering-Measuringvolatility-ProcesstoIdentifyOutliers

ModelingSegmentation&DataPattern Evaluation 3:15PM-5PM-ModelingsegmentationofSKUsusingtheParetoanalysis of Volume and volatility - Graphical decompositionofdemandusingLinearregressionModels

DAY THREEModelinginAPODP9AM-12:30PM-TrendSmoothingModels-SeasonalModelsorWintersModels-AutomaticModelingwithStrategy50-TimeDampeningProfiles-Croston’sModels

WorkonGroupCaseStudyandDiscussion1:30PM-4:30PMDevelopModelsinTestsystemtodevelopthesolution for the case study – Interactive session with our SAP modeling experts.

DAY TWO ModelinginAPODP9AM-11:30AM-InternalworkingsofAPODP-ForecastProfileSelectionProcess-ModelingStrategiesbyForecastingNeed

AssignmentofCaseStudyandDiscussion11:30AM-12:30PM

OpenModelingsession1:30PM-4:30PMDevelopModelsforindividualPlannersSKUsinLiveorTest system – Interactive session with our SAP modeling experts.

ModelinginAPODP1:30PM-3:30PM-TrendSmoothingModels-SeasonalModelsorWintersModels-HoltWintersModels-AutomaticModelingwithStrategy50-AutomaticModel2-ProductLifeCycleimpactonForecasts-TimeDampeningProfiles-ProfilesformodelingincreasingTrend-Croston’sModels

DAY FOURErrorMeasurementforModelDiagnostics:8:30AM-10AM-DefinitionofDemandForecastErrors-DefinitionofMPE,MAPEandRMSE-ModelDiagnosticsthroughForecastError-TrackingSignal ExceptionManagementinSAPAPO10:30AM-12:30PMAlerts–UnivariateAlerts–ForecastComparison

Casepresentations1:30PM-3:30PM-GroupDiscussionandQ&AontheCase.-Illustratetheanswers through SAP APO examples on the screen.

Proportional forecasting in APO DP3:45PM-5PM-Phase-inPhaseout-Forecastinglevels-Top-down,Bottom-upandMiddle-out

“Moving averages

rarely move?!”?

Abbott LabsAVONAhold USAAvery DennisonBAE SystemsBASFCabot CreameryCampbell Soup

Celanese AGCloroxEastman KodakF. SchumakerFMC CorporationFortune 500 Oil CoGlatfelter paperGrace Foods

Harley DavidsonHershey’sHewlett PackardHoneywellHypertherm, Inc.IMP AerospaceJohn DeereJohnson & Johnson

KNEXKraft FoodsLabatt FoodsLabatt USALifetime ProductsLimited BrandsMcCain FoodsNew Balance

Newell RubbermaidNomacorcNSTAR ElectricNTN USAOptos Inc. OSRAM SylvaniaPacific CyclesPizza Hut

SAB MillerSappi Fine Paper Skyworks SolutionsSunovionTeva PharmaceuticalsTexas InstrumentsUS NavyPfizer

Clients

Demand Planning LLC26 Henshaw st.

Woburn, MA 01801Phone: (781) 995 0685

Fax: (651) 305 5163

Email: services at demandplanning.netWeb: http://www.demandplanning.net

1. Am I using a Pareto Approach in my APO planning process?2. How can I leverage APO DP to improve our forecast accuracy?3. Why does APO mostly give me flat forecasts? How do I fix this?4. What are Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Sigma and Theta? How do I leverage these parameters?5. What is the correct level to model so as to improve the overall accuracy at the SKU level?6. What are weighting profiles? How does it affect my final forecast?7. How can I control time trend using trend dampening profiles?

8. Are there products and customers that are better left to APO’s automated modeling strategy?9. Which models to choose for what family of SKUs?10. What are custom modeling profiles?11. How is APO helping us simplify and improve the promotional planning process? 12. How do I create Multiple Linear Regression Models in APO?13. Are we using the system defined error metrics in APO? Why are they different from the classic MAPE calculations?14. How do you conduct phase-in/phase-out of products?15. When should I not use the Croston’s Model?16. Why am I getting 9,000+ alerts every morning?

UsabilityProjectwillanswerthefollowing questions:


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