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Impacts of Climate Change in sustainability of hydropower in Nepal

INTRODUCTION

Change in the climatic patterns regionally or globally refers to climate change. A growing body

of scientific literature provides unequivocal evidence that “climate change will continue for

many decades, and even centuries, regardless of the success of global initiatives to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions” (Natural Resources Canada, 2007, p 4). Therefore, it is essential to be

conscious of climatic effects before and after starting any initiatives.

Infrastructures are the physical assets that include communications, emergency services, energy,

finance, food, government, health, education, civil protection, transport or water of infrastructure

and the basis for human settlement. In case of Nepal, hydropower is one of the most important

infrastructures. Nepal has a huge hydropower potential. In fact, the perennial nature of Nepali

rivers and the steep gradient of the country's topography provide ideal conditions for the

development of some of the world's largest hydroelectric projects.

Climate change has already shown huge impacts on infrastructures like hydropower in recent

years and can put their operation and reliability partially at risk. Looking at this trend, it is very

likely to accelerate in the upcoming decades. Main threats to infrastructure assets include

destruction caused by extreme weather events, which climate change may worsen.

REAL PROBLEM

The climate and weather of Nepal vary greatly spatially (across regions) and temporally (from

one season to the other). The process of climate change, along with its anticipated changes in

temperatures, precipitation patterns, wind conditions and the occurrence of extreme weather

events, have clear inferences on every country’s built infrastructures like hydropower. Nepal has

a huge hydropower potential so, the need for its investment and development over the coming

decades is vital and enormous. Climate change does not change this need but can increase its

costs. Therefore, it becomes crucial to protect these infrastructures, prominent to damages and

prepare itself for building such plant that can sustain climatic changes in coming future.

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The geographical condition of Nepal is boon and curse. Boon in the case of generating high

potential head for development of hydropower stations and curse because variation in

geographical condition are more prone to disaster like flood and landslide.

The current estimates show that Nepal has approximately 40,000 MW of economically feasible

hydropower potential. However, the present situation is that Nepal has developed only

approximately 600 MW of hydropower. The recent data shows there are almost 30 hydropower

stations built in Nepal among which five power plants are already closed and transmission

towers destroyed. [source: www.ippan.org.np/HPinNepal.html]

Climate change may not only affect where infrastructure is built but also how it is designed and

operated. It is vital to know where there is need for additional infrastructure keen to climate

protection, such as flood protection, interconnections in water supply, as well as retro-fitting to

improve resilience of existing infrastructure .Infrastructure assets are long-lived and have the

capacity to lock development patterns for a long time. Making infrastructure resilient to climate

change is an important and early adaptation challenge. This might not be easy and cheap task. It

requires sophisticated decision-making with what knowledge we about future climate effects at

the regional and local level.

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

The past years has shown adverse effect of climate change in developing infrastructures in

Nepal. Hence it is necessary to foresee the problems created due to climate change on the

construction of hydropower in Nepal. This includes looking at the effects of climate change in

built, ongoing and future developing hydropower plant. This can give an insight to the city

planners, engineers to plan accordingly.

The possible solution to this problem can be:

Integration of climate change considerations into contracts on development of

hydropower

Identification of controlling factors of climate change that causes impacts on overall

hydropower plant.

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Assessment of recognizing quality climate information and climate risk-management

processes through climate change considerations.

Assessment of adopted Early Warning System for Natural Disasters.

Assessment on identification of hydropower plant that are at risk because of changing

climate and are in need of retrofitting

Assessment on identification of locations that may be vulnerable to climate change

impacts, reviewing existing practices and use entirely new solutions

Formal risk assessment and carry out risk management by increase the magnitude of

design parameters or safety factors.

Development of relative contingency plans for infrastructure failure.

METHODOLOGY

In order to obtain the solutions mentioned above, several methods can be applied. Following is

the flow of a methodology that can be adopted.

Planning

Planning involves creating of a set of plans to help guide this project through the execution and

closure phases of the project. The plans created during this phase shall be helpful to manage

time, cost, quality, change, risk and issues. This also consists of selection of factors that must be

considered.

Identify the controlling factors

Identification of controlling factors that controls the relationship between construction of

hydropower and changing climate along with the necessary factors to undergo this project must

be done at the initial phase of this project. Both qualitative and quantitative data are essential.

Qualitative data includes data of climatic parameters like temperature, precipitation. Also it

includes historical data of disaster like landslide, flood. This data can be collected from the

related organization like DHM (Department of Hydrology and Meteorology), ICIMOD

(International Center for Integrated Mountain Development) etc. The information about this

infrastructure (built, destroyed, ongoing, future plan) shall be collected from Department of

Electricity Development. The data thus collected can be used for hazard mapping, risk mapping.

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Through the study and analysis of those data controlling factors can be identified. The objective

of hazard maps is to provide residents with the information on the range of possible damage and

the disaster prevention activities. It is the important point to provide residents with

understandable clear information. Risk mapping is a tool used by life insurers in the

identification, control, and management of risk. Quantitative data can be collected through

household interviews which can be conducted within selected community group members. This

data can be helpful in going into the depth of impacts of climate change in local environment.

Develop experiment plan

An experimental plan must be prepared in order to explore, compare, explain and demonstrate

the identified factors and move forward in methodologies with full assurance in preparing

successful production from this project. Experiment must be carried out in small area as sample

to formulate this larger area.

Formulate plan

The formulation of plan refers to formulating the experimental plan that has been verified in the

proposed area. The plans are formulated into action in the real subjected area. Maps, charts and

necessary statistical analysis must be prepared to visualize the impacts. Maps showing impacts of

climate change in different hydropower plant must be prepared. The charts show the historical

events of impacts.

Conduct analysis

The collected and prepared data can be used for analysis. It includes analyzing the information

collected and processes them to give a meaningful production. Analysis must be done with the

output produced such as maps, graphs, statistics and other collected information. This includes

conducting initial descriptive analyses, refining and improving data as necessary, testing with

planned assumptions and produce a sensible results.

Finally documenting the analysis and finding must be done. Documenting information is

especially important. Not only do procedures help ensure that tasks can be completed in a

consistent and repeatable way, it also help to facilitate transfer of institutional knowledge.