renewable energy focus January/February 2009 17

News/Roundup

In something of a departure from its previous

reports, the International Energy Agency’s

(IEA) World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO-2008)

warns of dire consequences of an inadequate

response to the climate crisis, and calls for a

radical retooling of the global energy system.

“We cannot let the financial and economic crisis

delay the policy action that is urgently needed

to ensure secure energy supplies and to curtail

rising emissions of greenhouse gases. We must

usher in a global energy revolution by improving

energy efficiency and increasing the deployment

of low-carbon energy,” says Nobuo Tanaka, Exec-

utive Director of IEA.

In the WEO-2008 Reference Scenario, which

assumes no new government policies, world

primary energy demand grows by 1.6% per

year on average between 2006 and 2030 – an

increase of 45%. This is slower than projected last

year, mainly due to the impact of the economic

slowdown, prospects for higher energy prices

and some new policy initiatives. Demand for

oil and coal will continue to rise, but modern

renewables will grow most rapidly, overtaking

gas to become the second-largest source of

electricity soon after 2010.

According to the WEO-2008, oil will remain the

world’s main source of energy for many years

to come, even under the most optimistic of

assumptions about the developments of alter-

native technology.

Tackling challenges

Stabilising greenhouse gas concentration at 550

ppm of CO2-equivalent, which would limit the

temperature increase to about 3°C, would require

emissions to rise to no more than 33 Gt in 2030

and to fall in the longer term, says the report.

The share of low-carbon energy – hydropower,

nuclear, biomass, other renewables and fossil-

fuel power plants equipped with carbon capture

and storage (CCS) – in the world primary energy

mix would need to expand from 19% in 2006 to

26% in 2030.

The scale of the challenge in limiting greenhouse

gas concentration to 450 ppm of CO2-equivalent,

which would involve a temperature rise of about

2°C, is much greater. World energy-related CO2

emissions would need to drop sharply from

2020 onwards, reaching less than 26 Gt in 2030.

Achieving such an outcome would require even

faster growth in the use of low-carbon energy –

to account for 36% of global primary energy mix

by 2030, according to the report.

However, IEA says these scenarios will not lower oil

demand: “Even in [more optimistic] Policy Scenarios,

OPEC production will need to be 12 mb/d higher

in 2030 than today.” Mr. Tanaka says.

Renewable Energy Outlook 2030 begs to

differ

However, some experts are already taking

umbrage with the IEA’s figures. The Energy Watch

Group study Renewable Energy Outlook 2030 has

come to the conclusion that phasing out the use

of fossil and nuclear fuels can be accomplished

at a manageable investment level. The study

looks into the decrease in technology costs

resulting from increased production volume, as

well as the assumed individual development of

the various world regions.

On this basis, it generates a more optimistic

perspective of renewable technologies than the

scenarios of the International Energy Agency’s

World Energy Outlook series has, according to the

Energy Watch Group.

The study’s main message is that renewables

can be extended at much lower costs than

many scientists assume. More than half of the

electricity demand (54%) and 13% of the heat

demand in the OECD countries can be covered

from renewable sources by 2030, it concludes.

Stefan Gsänger, World Wind Energy Asso-

ciation (WWEA) Secretary General, comments:

“The Renewable Energy Outlook 2030 unveils

a realistic path describing how wind energy

and other renewable energy technologies will

develop in the coming two decades. The study

shows that, based on pure economics, wind

energy will deliver a lion’s share of the global

electricity needs in the not too distant future.

We congratulate the Energy Watch Group for

this analysis which is much more realistic than

many other reports and scenarios published

so far.”

IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 changes tack

A robot ascends a wind energy converter to inspect its rotor blades for potential damage (image - Fraunhofer IFF).

A robot has been developed by Fraunhofer

Institute for Factory Operation and Auto-

mation IFF to inspect composite wind turbine

blades in minute detail on location. The RIWEA

robot is said to register any crack and delamina-

tion in the material, relaying their exact positions.

It also checks the bond with the central strut.

Rotor blades, have to withstand wind, inertial

forces and erosion and therefore have to be

inspected at regular intervals, but their often

inhospitable locations – especially when it

comes to offshore wind turbines – makes this

task difficult. This is not a problem for the robot,

which can pull itself up ropes and can climb

wind turbines of any size, on- or offshore.

The inspection system included in the robot

features an infrared radiator conducting heat to

the surface of the rotor blade. A high-resolution

thermal camera can then record the tempera-

ture pattern and thereby register flaws in the

material. An ultrasonic system and high resolu-

tion camera enable the robot to detect damage

hidden to the human eye.

Robot inspects wind turbine blades