Drought Risk Management Scheme: a decision support system

Activity 5.4

Tamara Tokarczyk 2nd IDMP CEE Workshop Ljubljana, 8 – 9 April 2014

The main objective & Partners

• Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute Tamara Tokarczyk Wiwiana Szalińska

• Institute of Technology and Life Sciences (ITP) Leszek Łabędzki

POLAND

• Vilnus University, Department of Hydrology and Climatology (UV) Gintautas Stankūnavičius, Edvinas Stonevičius

LITHUANIA

• National Meteorological Administration (NMA) Elena Mateescu

• National Research and Development Institute for Soil-Agrochemistry and Environment (ICPA), Bucuresti Catalin Simota

ROMANIA

Developing an integrated framework that constitute a systematic approach for

building drought management systems for different sectoral context.

The framework contains concept of:

• components of the system required to support decisions

• drought hazard assessment methods

• drought vulnerability analysis with the use of impact assessment

• drought risk visualization and mapping

Measures for the

assessment of hazard

and vulnerability to

drought

Methods for the

drought hazard and

risk management

Framework for

Drought Risk

Management Scheme

3.1 Drought Risk Management Scheme for

Odra River

3.2 Recommendations for operational support

system in drought risk management

2.1. Developing methodology for drought hazard

mapping with the use of measures for drought

susceptibility assessment.

2.2. Framing methodology for vulnerability to drought

assessment based on available GIS information

including population map, type of economic activity

map and protected area to showing the potential

adverse consequences.

1.1. Identification of the national measures for drought

suspectibility (drought hazard) assessment

1.2. Identification of the national measures for drought

vulnerability assessment

Inventory of the

national (Poland,

Romania, Lithuania)

drought contexts.

Concept of drought

hazard and

vulnerability mapping

as a tool for drought

risk management for

selected regional

context.

The generic approach to

drought management that

can be detailed and adjusted

for specific applications.

Requirements for operational

DSS development in the

middle Odra River basin.

OUTPUT MILESTONE EXPECTED

RESULT

Outputs

DONE:

2. Climatic conditions in the context of drought (LT, PL, RO)

3. Drought monitoring and early warning systems (LT, PL, RO) 4. Measures for the assessment of susceptibility to drought

4.1.Drought indicators – meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and others

4.2.Drought monitoring and assessment using Remote Sensing and GIS methods

4.3.ROIMPEL simulation model as instrument for drought assessment

5. End-users and dissemination products

Milestone 1.1.

2. Identification of national sectors vulnerable to drought (LT, PL, RO)

3. Inventory of methodology to characterize drought impact and vulnerability

assessment (LT, PL, RO)

4. Stakeholders on national, regional and local levels and their needs for

information on drought risk (LT, PL, RO)

Milestone 1.2.

1.Objectives for drought risk management 2.Current status of drought risk management in Odra River

2.1. Study area 2.2. Organizational framework for water management in Poland 2.3. Management of water resources to mitigate drought impacts 2.4. Drought risk management plans

2.5. Drought monitoring and prediction 3.Recommendation on development of drought risk management in the Odra River

3.1. The need to improve drought governance

3.2. The need to improve drought risk identification

Milestone 3.1. The report provides the context for

the framework development that

demonstrate the current state and

needs for operational risk

management in the region of

Middle and Upper Odra River

basin.

The report provides the information

on the national context in terms of

drought hazard characteristic and

assessment

The report provides the

information on the

national context of

drought impacts and

sectors vulnerable to

drought

Progress Report

•real-time infromation on current conditions Monitoring network

• parameters that are used to describe drought Drought indicators

• drought triggers, threshold values indicating drought onset, duration and frequency Drought hazard assessment

• warnings and alerts generation, communication systems Drought early warning

• long-term analysis for land use, weather, water, climate variablity and climate change

Drought prediction

• social, economic and environmental conditions, sectors vulnerable to drought Impact assessment

• potential loss in connection with drought, which could occur to a particular location Risk assessment

• institutional commitment and responsabilities Service delivery

System

for

drought

risk

manage-

ment

DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT SCHEME

1.1.

1.1.

2.1.

1.1.

1.1.

1.2.

2.2.

1.2.

Milestone

no Final output

Definitions

Hazard physical conditions that has the potential for causing damage to life,

health, property or environment

Vulnerability a condition resulting from social, economic, and environmental factors or

processes, which increases the susceptibility of a system to the impact of a

hazard (drought)

Risk a combination of the likelihood of occurrence (HAZARD) and the

magnitude of the unwanted consequences (VULNERABILITY)

Ongoing work

Jianping Yan, 2010

System Vulnerability is the property of an

anthropogenic system that can be defined by the

susceptibility, coping capacity, and resilience of the

system.

Element Vulnerability refers to the degree of potential

physical damage to the target elements at risk, such as

particular crop spiece, water users, forrest biota in

response to a hazard event of a given intensity.

Drought risk assessment

Ongoing work

Sector- based risk assessment

The work is dedicated to a risk

assessment of recognized key

sectors vulnerable to drought in the

participating countries (LT, PL RO):

sector hazard assessment category of impact

Agriculture

(Act. 5.1)

SPI, HTC), PET, PDSI, CWB, EDI, Aridity

Index, NDWI, fAPAR, NDVI, CWSI, LAI

Economic (losses in crops, decline

in relevant food production)

Water

resources

SRI, Flow Index (from FDC), NDWI Social (public safety, health,

conflicts between water users,

reduced quality of life)

Forestry

(Act. 5.2)

Forest fire risk index, temperature,

precipitation, relative humidity, moisture

of forest litter

Environmental (increased

incidence of fires, damage to animal

and plant species)

Drought hazard assessment is based

upon the indicices applicable to the

participating countries (LT, PL RO)

• Selection of drought hazard indicies (region/sector)

• Identification of drought hazard assessment methods,

• Identification of impact and vulnerability estimation methods,

• Integration input information for the need of risk analysis.

Drought hazard and vulnerability assessment

Ongoing work

1. DROUGHT FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

The purpose of the frequency analysis is to determine the frequency and

severity of droughts and graphically represent the spatial distribution of drought

occurrences.

The SPI method is designed to be flexible in terms of drought duration specified by users.

Short time scales (e.g., 3 months) may be important for agricultural practices while long time

scales (e.g., one year or longer) may be vital for water supply management interests.

Maps representing spatial distribution of the probabilty of

occurence and duration drought of different severity .

The resultant frequency data are intended for integration with the

results of the drought vulnerability analysis to identify areas subject to drought risk.

(1) Drought frequency analysis (HAZARD),

(2) Assessment of drought impact on a given area (EXPOSURE),

(3) Vulnerability analysis (ELEMENT VULNERABILITY)

(4) Integration of these components to a form risk maps (RISK)

Risk mapping

Ongoing work

2. GIS-BASED ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT IMPACT AREAS

Data sources:

The meteorological conditions: precipitation, temperature, wind, slope

exposure, relative humidity, cloud cover, and evaporation and transpiration

data.

The environmental conditions: geology, slope, soil types, vegetation

types and coverage, water resources.

The land use and management data: crop information and farming

practices for crop and livestock, livestock population inventories.

The infrastructure conditions: population settlements and communities,

hotels and tourist zones, dams and storage reservoirs, desalinization and

water treatment plants, waste water treatment facilities, irrigation and

water distribution systems, water catchment systems.

- Identifying & categorizing elements at risk: crop type; forest biota; population, etc.

- Inventory mapping:

– Resolution

and seasonality

– Data format

– Analysis unit

Ongoing work Risk mapping

Developing Vulnerability Functions

for Drought Risk Assessment

- Loss-Intensity Matrix for Drought

- Vulnerability Functions

3. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS Vulnerability functions are created to calculate

potential damage or loss to a given element at

risk against a specified event intensity.

drought severity (Intensity&duration)

los

s r

ati

o

Ongoing work Risk mapping

Jianping Yan, 2010

based onTsakiris et al., 2010

water resources sector:

1) water supply locations;

2) population demographic information;

3) drought hazard map based on SRI

Exmaples of the combination of GIS leyers

regarding the risk assessment for:

agricutural sector:

1) land use;

2) crop type;

3) population demographic information;

4) drought hazard map based on SPI

The risk assessment involves both GIS data-gathering and data creation so as to compile asset layers and analytical layers for a visual presentation of risk.

GIS offers the ability to integrate many different types of data through the use of common geography. Each feature is linked to a position on the graphical image of a map. Layers of data are organized to be studied and to perform statistical or spatial analysis.

GISs allow users to analyze geographic phenomena within areas of interest, thus leading to a better understanding of relationships and to provide a helpful tool in decision-making.

The combination and content of leyers depends on purpose. This analysis include methods to overlay, query, highlight, and select layers that are determined as being critical to the examination of the potential vulnerability of the drought impact sectors. The analysis consisted of deriving new maps of the likely occurrence or magnitude of a particular phenomenon based on the established relationship between the existing maps layers.

Ongoing work Risk mapping 4. INTEGRATION TO FORM OF RISK MAPS

4. INTEGRATION OF THESE COMPONENTS TO FORM OF RISK MAPS

The integrated risk can be represented by a two-dimensional matrix that

classifies risks into three categories (low, moderate, high) based on the combined

effects of their likelihood (HAZARD) and consequence (VULNERABILITY).

Ongoing work Risk mapping

Where we search for expertise? • Partner countries? • IDMP CEE countries? • Other projects? • Literature? • Develop new ones?

Thanks for your attention !