Workshop of IGES/APN Mega-city Project

Policy Integration towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia, 4-5 February, 2003 in Honolulu

Modeling of urban development, Modeling of urban development, energy and environmentenergy and environment

Shinji KANEKOShinji KANEKOIDEC, Hiroshima Univ.IDEC, Hiroshima Univ.

ContentsContentsWhat we have learnt from the project with What we have learnt from the project with special focus on methodology and dataspecial focus on methodology and data�� Data availability/comparabilityData availability/comparability�� Model selection/integrationModel selection/integration

Brief introduction of selected complementary Brief introduction of selected complementary case studiescase studies�� Urban economic growth modelUrban economic growth model�� Energy dependency and indirect CO2 emissionEnergy dependency and indirect CO2 emission�� Spatial analysis of urban transportationSpatial analysis of urban transportation

Objectives of the projectObjectives of the project

To make cityTo make city--wide inventories of major air wide inventories of major air pollutants including CO2 in four megapollutants including CO2 in four mega--cities in Asiacities in AsiaTo generate future projections of those To generate future projections of those pollutants by sector up until 2020pollutants by sector up until 2020To draw policy recommendations for the To draw policy recommendations for the four megafour mega--citiescities

Emissions

MaterialFlow/Stock

Final Energy ConsumptionEnergy Type/Sector•Coal•Oil•Gas•Hydro•Solar•Wind•Nuclear

19902000

20102020

Energy Type

Sect

or

Embodied EnergyConsumption/StockEnergy Type/Sector•Coal•Oil•Gas•Hydro•Solar•Wind•Nuclear

19902000

20102020

Energy Type

Sect

or

CO2 Emission

NOx Emission

SOx Emission

TSP Emission

CO Emission

MP10 Emission

within the city

outside the city

Emissions

Emis

sion

Fac

tors

(Ene

rgy

=>C

O2,

NO

x, SO

x, C

O, T

SP, P

M10

etc

.)

InfrastructureConstruction

Energy ServiceDemand

Waste Heat

Method1

ConsumptionActivities

Macro UrbanEconomic Model

Transportation Sector

Res.Com Sector

WasteManagement

ModelC

onve

rsio

n Fa

ctor

s(M

ater

ial=

>Em

bodi

ed E

nerg

y)

Technology

Lifestyle

I/O AnalysisLCA AnalysisMFA Analysis

Direct

Indirect

Energy Consumption

Industrial Sector

Method2

Method3

Method4

Initial framework of modeling

Challenges of the projectChallenges of the projectInternational comparative study at city levelInternational comparative study at city level�� Development of comparable dataset for the four citiesDevelopment of comparable dataset for the four cities�� Effective collaboration in interdisciplinary and Effective collaboration in interdisciplinary and

international joint researchinternational joint research

Modeling techniqueModeling technique�� Integration of sector modelsIntegration of sector models�� Integration of topIntegration of top--down and bottomdown and bottom--up approachesup approaches

KKey indicator groups and data ey indicator groups and data requirementrequirement

Macro socioeconomic dataMacro socioeconomic data�� GRP by major sectorGRP by major sector�� Demographic dataDemographic data�� Labors by sectorLabors by sector

Energy balance dataEnergy balance data�� Sector (Primary energy supply, transformation, final consumptionSector (Primary energy supply, transformation, final consumption))�� Energy type (Coal and coal products, Oil and oil products, LNG, Energy type (Coal and coal products, Oil and oil products, LNG, Town gas (City gas), Town gas (City gas),

Electricity, Heat)Electricity, Heat)

SectoralSectoral data/ transportation, residential, commercial and waste managemdata/ transportation, residential, commercial and waste managementent�� Classification of registered vehicleClassification of registered vehicle�� Travel demand by type of vehicleTravel demand by type of vehicle�� Floor space by type of buildingFloor space by type of building�� Appliances by energy serviceAppliances by energy service�� Energy efficiencies by applianceEnergy efficiencies by appliance�� Waste generation and compositionWaste generation and composition�� Waste management facilities profilesWaste management facilities profiles

Emission factorEmission factor�� CO2CO2�� Air pollutants (CO, HC, Air pollutants (CO, HC, NOxNOx, PM) from transportation sector, PM) from transportation sector

Definition of cityDefinition of city

Beijing, 12,167

Beijing(Wardarea), 9,201

Shanghai, 13,055

Shanghai(Wardarea), 10,186

Tokyo, 11,830

Tokyo(Wardarea), 7,980

Seoul, 10,389

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

-2,000 3,000 8,000 13,000 18,000 23,000Area (km2)

Popu

latio

n de

nsity

(per

sons

/km

2)

*The number with the city name and area of circleshows total popuation(1,000).

Energy balanceEnergy balance

18 energy types:18 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (7); Oil products (7); Oil and oil products and oil products (8); Natural Gas; (8); Natural Gas; Electricity; HeatElectricity; HeatNo Town gasNo Town gas

17 sectors in total; 17 sectors in total; Supply (4); Supply (4); TransportationTransportation(6); Final (6); Final cons. (7).cons. (7).Partially available: Partially available: mining (7); mining (7); manufacturing (17)manufacturing (17)

85, 90, 85, 90, 9595--9999

Commercial Commercial publicationpublication

Energy Energy balancebalanceBeijing/ Beijing/

ShanghaiShanghai

28 energy types:28 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (5); Oil products (5); Oil and oil products and oil products (19); Natural Gas; (19); Natural Gas; Town Gas; Town Gas; Electricity; HeatElectricity; Heat

8 sectors in total;8 sectors in total;Production(1)Production(1)Transformation(3)Transformation(3)Final cons. (4)/Final cons. (4)/ResCom ResCom aggregatedaggregated

9090--9898Internal Internal database of database of KEEIKEEI

Energy Energy balancebalanceSeoulSeoul

17 energy types:17 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (3); Oil products (3); Oil and oil products and oil products (11); Natural Gas; (11); Natural Gas; Town Gas; Town Gas; ElectricityElectricity

31 final cons. sectors in 31 final cons. sectors in total: Agriculture; total: Agriculture; manufacturing (22); manufacturing (22); residential; commercial; residential; commercial; Transportation (4)/Transportation (4)/no no Construction, energy for Construction, energy for air craft is not includedair craft is not included

70, 80, 70, 80, 9090--9898

Internal Internal report of report of TMGTMG

Final energy Final energy consumption consumption datadata

TokyoTokyo

Energy typeEnergy typeSectorSectorYearYearSourceSourceTypeType

Common format of final energy consumption Common format of final energy consumption table (13 energy types and 5 sectors)table (13 energy types and 5 sectors)

Total

Others

Heat

Electricity

Town Gas

Natural Gas

LPG

Other Petroleum Products

Heavy Oil (Fuel Oil, Bunkner)

Kerosene

Gasoline

Diesel

Crude Oil

Coal

TOETOETOETOETOETOEUNIT:

TotalOthersTransportationCommercialResidential Industry　

SectoralSectoral datadata

Total Total residential onlyresidential onlyNo commercialNo commercial

Total Total residential onlyresidential onlyNo commercialNo commercial

Commercial Commercial (office, school, (office, school, hospital, hospital, entertainment, entertainment, etc), etc), Residential Residential (wooden and (wooden and nonnon--wooden wooden (5))(5))

Floor spaceFloor space

Residential/CommercialResidential/Commercial

No. of major No. of major energy service energy service devices for devices for urban and ruralurban and ruralNo efficiency No efficiency datadata

NoNo

No. of energy No. of energy service devices service devices (heating, (heating, cooling, lighting cooling, lighting refrigerator, refrigerator, TVs, etc)TVs, etc)Energy Energy efficiency by efficiency by typetype

AppliancesAppliances

Waste managementWaste managementTransportationTransportation

NoNoWaste collected Waste collected volume by typevolume by typePaper, plastic and Paper, plastic and textile are textile are integratedintegratedNo calorific valueNo calorific value

Working hour of Working hour of passenger vehicle, passenger vehicle, speed, Tonspeed, Ton--km, km, average freight average freight capacitycapacityvehiclevehicle--km km (survey report)(survey report)

Passenger vehicle Passenger vehicle (including bus), Truck(including bus), TruckCar, Small bus, Car, Small bus, Large bus, Small Large bus, Small truck, Large trucktruck, Large truck��6 types, 3 types6 types, 3 types

Beijing/ Beijing/ ShanghaiShanghai

No. of No. of facilities facilities (incinerator, (incinerator, landfill site, landfill site, composting)composting)Capacity of Capacity of facilitiesfacilities

Waste collected Waste collected volume by volume by treatment method treatment method and by type (10)and by type (10)Calorific value of Calorific value of waste by typewaste by type

Vehicle number, Vehicle number, Driving distance Driving distance (national average)(national average)vehiclevehicle--km (pass. km (pass. car, taxi, bus)car, taxi, bus)

Bus, Truck, Bus, Truck, Passenger car, Passenger car, Special vehicleSpecial vehicleNA for further detail NA for further detail datadata�� 3 types3 types

SeoulSeoul

No. of No. of facilities facilities (incinerator, (incinerator, landfill site, landfill site, composting)composting)Capacity of Capacity of facilitiesfacilities

Waste collected Waste collected volume by volume by treatment method treatment method and by type (10)and by type (10)Calorific value of Calorific value of waste by typewaste by type

PassengerPassenger--km, km, TonTon--kmkmvehiclevehicle--km km (survey report)(survey report)

Bus, Truck, Bus, Truck, Passenger vehicle, Passenger vehicle, light car (<660cc)light car (<660cc)Truck (4), Bus (2), Truck (4), Bus (2), Sedan (2), Light Sedan (2), Light motor (2), Special motor (2), Special use (2), Heavy use (2), Heavy special kinds of special kinds of vehiclevehicle��6 types, 3 types6 types, 3 types

TokyoTokyo

FacilitiesFacilitiesWaste volumeWaste volumeTravel demandTravel demandVehicle fleetVehicle fleet

Emission factorEmission factorPMPM--1010HCHCNOxNOxCOCOCO2CO2

g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle

g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle

g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle

Note1: Light duty gasoline vehicle, Light duty diesel Note1: Light duty gasoline vehicle, Light duty diesel vehicle, Light duty gasoline truck 1 and 2, Light duty vehicle, Light duty gasoline truck 1 and 2, Light duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty gasoline vehicle, Heavy duty diesel vehicle.gasoline vehicle, Heavy duty diesel vehicle.Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standard.their emission standard.

IPCC IPCC guideline guideline (1996)(1996)Energy Energy balancebalance

Beijing/ Beijing/ ShanghaiShanghai

Note1: Private passenger car, tax, small bus (gas., Note1: Private passenger car, tax, small bus (gas., diesel, LPG), medium bus (diesel), large bus (LNG), diesel, LPG), medium bus (diesel), large bus (LNG), small truck (gas., LPG, diesel) medium truck, large small truck (gas., LPG, diesel) medium truck, large trucktruckNote2: Past emission factors are estimated based on Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standard. their emission standard. No information for future No information for future

IPCC IPCC guideline guideline (1996)(1996)Energy Energy balancebalance

SeoulSeoul

Note1: Classification of vehicle type (Passenger Note1: Classification of vehicle type (Passenger vehicle, bus, light truck and ordinary truck) is based on vehicle, bus, light truck and ordinary truck) is based on transportation census which is not consistent with transportation census which is not consistent with Tokyo statistical yearbook and vehicle registration data.Tokyo statistical yearbook and vehicle registration data.Note2: Emission factors for each type of vehicle in use Note2: Emission factors for each type of vehicle in use are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standards.composition by vintage and their emission standards.

National National emission emission factor (factor (MoEMoE, , Japan)Japan)TEPCOTEPCO

TokyoTokyo

Overall framework of the project Overall framework of the project in practicein practice

Macro socioeconomic sector (GME)

Transportation

Residential

Commercial

Waste managementCO2 and other pollutants (2000-2020)

Energy (2000-2020)

• Embodied energy in production sector

• OD based transportation study

• Direct/indirect

• MARKAL model for Shanghai

Main models

Complementary studies

• CGE

• Factor decomposition

Selected complementary studiesSelected complementary studies

Issues to be addressed by complementary Issues to be addressed by complementary studiesstudies�� Interaction with outsideInteraction with outside

Energy dependency and transEnergy dependency and trans--boundary boundary environmental impactsenvironmental impactsTraffic inflow and outflow with surrounding regionsTraffic inflow and outflow with surrounding regions

�� Urban economic growth Urban economic growth CGE (Computational General Equilibrium) modelCGE (Computational General Equilibrium) model