hvacr 2013 - analysing world markets

Global Trends in Air Conditioning

Anette M Holley

AHR, 29th Jan 2013

2Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

Current factors affecting AC markets Global trends US vs other regions

– product winners and losers– market dynamic– key companies– geographical growth and recovery; where to focus next?

2012 – Global refrigeration

2

3Excellence in Market Intelligence 3

Changes in the Global AC market, 2012 –

Importance

Urgency

The rise of VRFshare

Move to heat pumps

Consolidation of competitors

New refrigerants; R32 +?Vertical

segmentation

Growth in inverters ERP- directive

Continued crises

Smaller compact solutions

Oil free/Turbocor

chillersolutions


Smart building and building service

integration

US Market Drivers and Restraints

4

Sluggish economic growth

Slow recovery of new construction

Falling gas prices with oversupply

Accelerated replacement cycle

after R22 phase out

Energy conservation driver and SEER/EER regional standards

Recovery of demand

Ductless market growth

Increasing competitive

pressure and lower margins

Market becoming less ‘insular’

5Excellence in Market Intelligence 5

Daikin becomes the first non-US company to have a full coverage of the HVAC market by end user and by applications

Residential: Ducted (Goodman) and ductless

Light commercial: ductless and unitary

(Goodman/McQuay)

Commercial and Industrial: Chiller + AHU + Fan coil

(McQuay)

Residential heating: heat pumps air to air and air to

water (Daikin and Goodman)

Eco solutions for residential and commercial: energy

efficient ductless, chillers and heat pumps

What’s is missing? Control range, refrigeration and vertical integration in commercial and industrial HVAC


Competitive Landscape Trends in the US

6

Increased focus on the US market from Asian OEMs will generate:o Chinese branded presence in the residential market, primarily window and PTACs;o Strengthening of the Korean OEM presence in the residential market;o Further increase of the Japanese OEM market share in both residential and

commercial marketo Possible OEM agreements and Asian acquisitions of US companies

US OEMs will look at expanding presence in other markets primarily Latin America.


World air conditioning market, 2012

7

Value (US$m)

Volume (units)

Total 2012: 111,763,938 units

Total 2012: US$88.4 billion


US market, value (US$m), 2012

No. 3 after China and Japan No. 1 for Windows and Moveables No. 1 for Rooftops No. 1 for US-style splits No. 2 for Chillers after China No. 8 for Indoor packaged No. 4 for VRF No. 11 for Splits (single & multi)

8

Total 2012: US$12,852.0 million


Definitions III: US-style ducted vs. Japanese-style ducted

9

US Style Ducted Installation

• The picture below shows typical indoor and outdoor installation for USA ducted splits.

• Often these systems have a furnace, but in the southern states of the US, the systems is connected to the air handler. The houses are built around a central column space, and in that column space the air handler is found at the beginning of the main duct. On the other side of ducts grilles are diffusing air to all the rooms.

Japanese Style Split Installation

Single split Standard 1 to 1 outdoor unit• Connected by two refrigerant pipes and electrical

connections to one indoor unit.• The larger capacity units tend to be taller rather than

widerMulti split:• One outdoor unit connected to up to 5 indoor units by

means of the required number of pipework sets.• Each indoor unit has its own pair of refrigerant pipes

and electrical connections.


World air conditioning market by product, 2012

10

Value (US$M) Volume

Total: US$88.4 billion

Total: 111.8 million units


World air conditioning market by country, 2012

11

Value (US$M) Volume

Total: US$88.4 billion

Total: 111.8 million units


World air conditioning market, volume, 2012

12

USA Europe China

Total: 43.7m unitsTotal: 17.0m units Total: 9.0m units


World VRF market volume, 2012

13

VRF

Chillers


World hot and cold spots by volume, 2012

14

Warm spots >10-20% growthCold spots <0% growth

Hot spots >20% growth

Russia

Ukraine

Egypt

TurkeyIndia

VenezuelaDominican Rep. Morocco

Italy

Argentina

ChinaJapan

South Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

UruguayChile


AC growth rate in Europe, 2012

15

9%-22%

-1% -30%


World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-15

16

Warm spots >10-20% growthCold spots <0% growth

Hot spots >20% growthUruguay

Venezuela

Brazil

Chile

PanamaDominican Rep.

Cuba

Bolivia

Romania

RussiaUK Belgium

ItalySpainSwitzerland

Indonesia

Morocco


AC growth rate in Latin America, 2012

17

ArgentinaUS$668.8m

BrazilUS$1816.0m

MexicoUS$610.0m

VenezuelaUS$440.6m

ChileUS$267.4m

ColombiaUS$96.4m

Puerto RicoUS$77.9m USA

Total LABrazil

VenezuelaChile

ArgentinaColombia

MexicoPuerto Rico

7.7%12.3%

14.2%14.2%

13.7%8.3%

7.7%7.4%

4.1%

CAGR 2012-2015


Americas AC market, 2012

18


Growth prospects for splits and chillers, 2012-2015

19

Splits by volume Chillers by value

BSRIAGlobal

Refrigeration studies


Commercial & industrial refrigeration

In-depth re-ports in 9 countries with global overview

21

Research being finalised; draft coming in and will be published from April 2012


Trends in refrigeration

22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Scroll

Reciprocating

Screw

Centrifugal

Rotary

Industrial Ref Share

JCIGEAVilterMycomOther

US$M

0.050.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0

Mono blocks

Bi-blocks

Unit coolers

Air cooled condensers/ dry coolersIndustrial distributioncold storesIntegral cabinets

Remote cabinets

Small cold rooms

Process chillers

Bottle coolers, Reach-ins


Contact details

23

Thank you

Anette Meyer Holley

General Manager, VACR and Consultancy

+44 (0) 1344 465636

[email protected]

hvacr 2013 - analysing world markets

Business