Ⓒ

Olo

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Market outlook for grains and oilseeds

Stephan Hubertus Gay

DG Agriculture and Rural Development

2

Introduction

• Cereal and oilseed balances regularily produced in DG AGRI

• Basis: Eurostat balances

• Current yield estimate from „MARS Bulletins for Europe“ (JRC-IES)

• Discussion between market experts within DG AGRI

• Presented version: June 2011

3

Usage of cereals in the EU

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e 11/12 f

mill

ion

tonn

es

Seed use Food use Industrial use (incl. Biofuels) Feed use

4

EU cereal balance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e 11/12 f

Sto

cks

(Mio

t)

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

330

Pro

duct

ion

& u

tilis

atio

ns (

Mio

t)

Intervention stocks Market stocks Usable production Uses

5

Extra-EU trade in cereals

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 e

mill

ion

tonn

es

grai

n e

quiv

alen

t

Imports Exports

6

EU cereal prices

50

100

150

200

250

300

Eur

o /

tonn

e

Soft wheat (Rouen) Barley (Rouen) Maize (Bayonne)

7

Uses and balance items

• 2010/2011 high net-exports and sharp reduction in stocks

• Price levels comparable to 2007/2008

• 2011/2012 reduction in net-exports expected

• Almost unchanged harvest in 2011

• Stocks expected to remain under pressure

8

Cereal production in the EU

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Soft wheat Durumwheat

Barley Grainmaize

Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals

mill

ion

t

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

9

Areas of concern as of mid-May 2011

Source: MARS Bulletin Vol. 19 No. 6 (2011), JRC-IES

10

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

Soft wheat Durumwheat

Barley Grainmaize

Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals

t/ha

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

Cereal yields in the EU

11

Grain area in the EU

0

5

10

15

20

25

Soft wheat Durumwheat

Barley Grainmaize

Rye Oats Sorghum Triticale Othercereals

mill

ion

ha

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

12

Production, yield and area

• Increase in grain maize production and decline in soft wheat

• Reduced average yields for soft wheat and barley

• Increased area of grain maize

• Generally lower yields and only slight increases in cereal area

13

Cereal, oilseed and protein crops (COP) area

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12proj.

Cer

eals

an

d t

ota

l CO

P (

mio

ha)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Oils

eed

s a

nd

pro

tein

cro

ps

(m

io h

a)

Total COP Total cereals Oilseeds Protein crops

14

Rapeseed price and price ratio

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Eur

o / t

onne

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

ratio

Rapeseed (Hamburg)/Soft Wheat (Rouen) Rapessed (Hamburg)

15

Oilseed availabilities and uses

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011e 2011/2012f

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

Rapeseed Production Rapeseed Imports Rapeseed Crushings Rapeseed ExportsSoybeans Production Soybeans Imports Soybeans Crushings Soybeans ExportsSunflowerseed Production Sunflowerseed Imports Sunflowerseed Crushings Sunflowerseed Exports

Availabilities (first bar) Main Uses (second bar)

16

Oilseed balances

• Strong demand for oilmeals and vegetable oils

• Reduced expected crushing of rapeseedin 2011/2012

• Production decline of rapeseed due to yield decline

• Continued gain in area but this season due to sunflower and not rapeseed

17

Concluding remarks

• 2010/2012: tight season with high prices– Reduced imports– Reduction of stocks (intervention and private)

• 2011/2012: continued tight markets– Slower demand increase– Reduced net-exports– Small expansion in COP area– Low yield prospects– Almost unchanged production– Stocks remain under pressure

18

Thank you!