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  • HPC Trends for 2017

    HPCAC Stanford

    Addison Snell@addisonsnell, addison@intersect360.com

  • Intersect360 Research in 2017

    10 year history of HPC analyst business

    Covering high performance data center markets, including traditional HPC and supercomputing, high-performance enterprise,

    cloud, big data, and hyperscale

    New hyperscale advisory service

    Weekly podcast, This Week in HPC

    Contributing editors to The Next Platform, market research partners of TOP500.org, media partnerships with HPCwire, insideHPC

    Sponsors of HPC Advisory Council

  • Key Topics from Yesterday

    Architecture specialization

    HPC in the Cloud

    HPC vs. Hyperscale

    Machine learning and AI

  • HPC User Forward-Looking ViewsFAVORABLEUNFAVORABLE

    Intersect360 Research special study, 2016

  • Plans for POWER/OpenPOWER

    WillDefinitelyUse13%

    WillEvaluate40%

    Noplanstoevaluateoruse47%

    PlanstoUseorEvaluatePower/OpenPOWERforHPC"overthenextfewyears"

    Intersect360Researchspecialstudy,2016

  • Plans for ARM

    WillDefinitelyUse12%

    WillEvaluate47%

    Noplanstoevaluateoruse41%

    PlanstoUseorEvaluateARMforHPC"overthenextfewyears"

    Intersect360Researchspecialstudy,2016

  • Top Accelerator* Supplier

    38% of the systems reported have accelerators installed

    NVidia was installed in the majority of systems with

    accelerators and accounted for the majority of accelerators

    installed.

    Intel Xeon Phi was installed in less than 20% of systems.

    FPGAs are reported, yet account for less than 2% of systems

    and less than 1% of accelerators installed.

    Top Suppliers by Share of Systems

    (N=316 systems)

    Top Suppliers by Share of Total Accelerators

    (N=54,375 accelerators)

    * Accelerators includes GPUs, co-processors, and FPGAs

  • Top Interconnects/Network Suppliers

    In all locales, two vendors account for over 50% of the mentions, with

    Mellanox being the only supplier in all three locales. Entries not specifying

    supplier were not included in total.

    InfiniBand continues to be the performance system network of choice for

    system interconnects, with about two-thirds of the mentions. Ethernet 10G+

    and InfiniBand have about equal shares for storage systems networks.

    Intels Omni-Path was reported for a few systems and storage systems, with

    expectations for increased share in 2017.

    Top System Interconnect Suppliers Top Storage Interconnect Suppliers Top LAN Suppliers

  • About 76% of applications reported were Open Source or ISV

    software (generally-available applications).

    ISV and in-house packages are still the majority at commercial

    sites, representing about 84% of the packages reported.

    Open source accounts for more than 50% of the packages reported

    at academic and government sites.

    Top Generally-Available ApplicationsTop Open Source Applications Top ISV Applications

  • Total HPC Market (Combined HPTC and HPBC)

    Revenue by Product Class ($M)

  • The Hyperscale Market

    Included since our 2007 HPC methodology as

    ultrascale internet

    In 2015, recognized Hyperscale as distinct

    market in proximity to HPC; began process of

    separating it from HPC

    Defined hyperscale methodology with market

    research and feedback from interested clients

    Published definitions and methodology report in

    April 2016

  • Hyperscale Market Definition

    The hyperscale market consists of arbitrarily scalable, web-facing application infrastructure that is distinct from general IT investment

  • Hyperscale Market Size and Tiers

    Intersect360 Research has a tiered model for

    the hyperscale market, as follows:

    Tier AnnualIT Orgs MarketSize

    Tier1 >$1B 8 ~$20B

    Tier2 >$100M ~40 ~$10B

    Tier3 >$1M hundreds ~$5B

    Total: ~$35B

    DRAFT,Intersect360Research,2016

    We anticipate publication of market size very

    soon, possibly by end of year

  • Deep Learning

    Intersect360 Research tracks AI (including deep

    learning, machine learning, cognitive computing,

    etc.) as part of the hyperscale market

    Similar to but distinct from HPC

    Low precision, intensely parallel, strong affinity to

    public cloud

    DL is not a vertical market. It is more akin to an

    algorithm or method of computation, like an FFT

    Cloud providers and end users are in early

    stages of investment for their applications

  • Sizing Deep Learning

    We have looked at the size of the deep learning

    market opportunity from several angles:

    Supplier-side information on market expansion

    Demand-side market analysis on acquisitions

    Top-down analysis of the hyperscale market

    Analyst opinion

    Our independent methods have produced

    consistent views of the current opportunity in

    deep learning

  • Deep Learning Size and Growth

    According to our analysis, the deep learning

    market opportunity is $2.0B to $2.5B for 2016

    Represents about 6.5% of the hyperscale market

    This is a pre-publication figure

    We expect growth rate to be very high for the

    next two years, 2017-18, close to 100% Y/Y

    After that, growth will moderate, and possibly

    even contract by end of five-year period

  • The Next Ten Years in HPC

    (Write These Down; Grade Me in 2027)

    1. Fundamental drivers of HPC remain strong. Forever.

    2. Specialization proliferates again. Custom architectures will

    reemerge in the market.

    3. Public cloud (utility) remains well below 10% of the HPC market

    through the next 10 years.

    4. Object storage will take off in commercial markets.

    5. The hyperscale market will have a tremendous effect:

    Consuming HPC-associated technologies like GPU, InfiniBand

    Defining system configurations and product specifications

    Influencing software and middleware

    Introducing new revolutionary applications based on AI

    (including deep learning) and augmented reality. These are

    hyperscale applications that will predominant be run on cloud-

    based resources.

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