© 2007 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.The information contained herein is subject to change without notice

SPaM

HP Supply Chain Best PracticesHP 供应链母本（最佳实践）

Brian CargilleAPJ Manager, SPaMSPaM 亚太经理

2023年4月7日 2

SPaM

Agenda议程• Beer Game

啤酒游戏• HP supply chain today

今日 HP 供应链• HP Supply Chain Innovations

HP 供应链创新− Forecasting

预测− Supply Chain Network Design

供应链网络设计− Inventory and Capacity Optimization

库存和产能优化− Warranty

保修− Product Design for Supply Chain

为供应链的产品设计

2023年4月7日 3

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HP Supply Chain Today今日惠普供应链HP’s Supply Chain leadership continuously evaluates and supports the requirements of our customers while simultaneously executing in the most efficient and cost effective way possibleHP 的供应链领导团队持续的评估和支持客户的需求，同时，以最有效和最有成本竞争力的方式实施

HP’s Supply Chain operates on the principle that one Supply Chain model does not serve the needs of all customers. HP’s Supply Chain strategy is based on a flexible, modular set of Supply Chain pathways that enables HP to deliver on customer requirements while supporting their buying preferences. HP’s Supply Chain enables both direct and indirect routes to market to reach customers in over 148 countries around the worldHP 供应链在运营过程中坚持单一供应链模式不能满足所有客户的需求。 HP 的供应链战略是建立在一个灵活的模块化的模式上，保证 HP 能够依据客户需求进行货物或者服务交付，同时支持客户的购买偏好。 HP 供应链在全球 148 个国家支持直接和间接到市场和客户的模式。

2023年4月7日 4

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HP Supply Chain Today今日惠普供应链（续）HP’s Supply Chain enables HP to respond to a variety of complex market conditions while ensuring we can out perform our competition. It is the engine behind HP’s continuous effort to grow market share in the highly competitive and dynamic personal computing and enterprise storage and server markets. HP recently captured leadership positions in both. At the same time HP’s Supply Chain continuously sustains our established leadership positions in the imaging and printing markets. HP 供应链帮助 HP 能够针对不同的复杂市场状况作出有效反应，同时确保 HP 保持竞争力。 HP 供应链是企业内部强大的引擎，帮助 HP 在高度竞争和动态的个人计算、企业存储和服务市场上持续提高市场份额。最近 HP 取得了在这两个市场的领导地位。同时 HP 的供应链持续帮助 HP 维持在映象和打印市场的领导地位。

Proof of HP’s operations excellence can be seen in HP’ consistently strong growth and financial performance.HP 的精益运营可以通过 HP 业务持续的强劲增长和财务绩效得到证明。

2023年4月7日 5

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Four Key Activities4 个关键的活动What we focus on in HP Supply ChainHP 供应链关注什么

Supply Chain Balancing Act

供应链平衡

Supply Chain Operations供应链运营

Operating Principles运营原则

•Price价格

•Performance绩效

•Quality质量

•Availability货物可获取能力

•Value价值

•Support支持

CustomerRequirements

客户需求

MinimizeCosts

成本最小化

Continuously managing Supply Chain operations to minimize cost持续管理供应链运营，使其成本最小化

Enabling the HP business Model支持 HP 业务模式Products 产品

Modular Supply Chain:模块化的供应链

Flexible & cost effective灵活 & 低成本

No touchLow touchHigh valueCTO

Plan 计划

Source 寻源

Make制造

Deliver 交付

HP ownedCMODM

Full turn keyGuided turnKeyBuy/sell

RTM

退回

管理

Cost minimizing vectors成本最小化要素

• Manufacturing 制造• Procurement [shared service]

采购（共享服务）• Logistics [shared service]

物流（共享服务）

• True collaboration with partners for mutual success与合作伙伴共赢的真诚合作

• Operate responsibility:运营责任SER

• EICC, code of conduct运营方式

• DfSC为供应链设计

• Deliver value:交付价值

• Customers: TCE客户 : 客户全程体验

• Shareholders股东

• Profit利润

• Market share市场份额

• SKU varietySKU 差异

• NPI window management新产品导入视窗管理

• Market dynamics市场动态

• Customer segment/s match客户细分匹配

• IP investment知识产权投资

• Volumes数量

GlobalDelivery全球交付

Routes to Market

入市路径

• Direct直接

• Indirect间接

• Channel indirect渠道间接

• Regional requirements区域需求

• 148 countries148 个国家

• Localization本土化

• Global trade regulations国际贸易规则

2023年4月7日 6

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计划

寻源

制造

交付

计划

寻源

制造

交付

Horizontal leverage points横向协调点

Creates efficiencies, minimizes costs, drives alignment创造效率、成本最小化、保持一致

PSG IPG TSG

Plan

Manufacture

Fulfill

Source

Plan

Manufacture

Fulfill

Source

Plan

Manufacture

Fulfill

Source

Social and Environmental Programs社会和环保

Logistics Services物流

Procurement采购

• Quality 质量• Assurance of supply 供应保

证• Risk mgmt风险管理• Access to new technology

新技术导入•3PL partners第三方合作伙伴•International Direct Ship 国际直接发运•Factory Express工厂快件•Lego

•Code of Conduct 运作方式•Take back召回•Compliance 合规•Design for SC 针对供应链设计

• Leverage平衡

• Simplify简化

• Align一致

2023年4月7日 7

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Strategic Planning and Modeling (SPaM)战略计划和建模

Purpose 目标

drive competitive advantage through the application of analytics to HP’s critical operations and business problems通过对 HP 一些重要而复杂的运营和业务问题进行分析的应用，提高惠普竞争力

a team of world-class experts in decision support with extensive consulting experience and advanced analytical and technical skills拥有一个世界一流的专家团队来支持决策，具备丰富的咨询经验以及超高的分析和技术能力

an innovation lab to develop leading-edge business processes and methodologies创新实验室开发领先的业务流程和方法论

a knowledge broker across the HP businessesHP集团内部跨 BU 的知识库

a 15+ year track record on a wide variety of complex, mission-critical problems拥有超过 15 年的实践经验处理各种复杂和高难的问题

SPaM

2023年4月7日 8

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SPaM partnership modelSPaM 合作模式

• Executive sponsors: HP Supply Chain Board发起人： HP 供应链委员会

• Hosted by IPG, serves all HP businesses由 IPG托管，服务所有 BU

• Projects co-led and funded directly businesses项目由 BU 直接出资，由 BU和 SPaM 团队共同领导

− Typically 3 months long with 2 SPaMsters @ 50% time一般情况下项目历时 3 个月

• Account managers as contact points for scoping a project or “drive-by” consulting (<10 hrs)客户经理作为项目的联系点确定项目范围，或者由咨询主导（ <10 小时）

− IPG, PSG/TSG, EMEA, APJ

• Key metric: satisfied clients关键指标：满足客户

− Client decides what success looks like客户决定怎样才算成功

− SPaM screening: in our “sweet spot”, with $5M+ business impact or VP-level prioritySPaM： sweet spot: 大于 5 百万美金的业务影响，或者 VP层面提出的优先级

2023年4月7日 9

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SPaM value proposition: driving competitive advantage through analyticsSPaM 的价值定位：通过数据分析创造竞争力

•Data analysis / predictive modeling数据分析 /预测建模

•Financial / spreadsheet modeling 财务 /表单建模

•Optimal decision-making under uncertainty不确定情况下的最佳决策

Client Business Challenges客户业务挑战

•Neutral facilitation with end-to-end profitability view端到端盈利能力视角的协调

•Problem-framing问题框架•Strategy synthesis or Excel/Access tool development战略合成或者 Excel/Access工具开发

•Knowledge brokering across BU’s, regions跨 BU跨地区知识共享

SPaM ExpertiseSPaM 专家

资源

• Client check-in’s客户输入

• “Drive-by” consulting咨询主导

• Workshops专门工作会议 分

析A

naly

tics

咨询

Con

su

ltin

g

Better Data-Driven

Decision or Process

更好的基于数据的决策或流程

Innovation (Methods, Tools, IP)

创新（方法、工具、 IP ）

Pan-HP Tools, Methods, Programs

覆盖整个 HP 的工具、方法和项目群

Projects项目

2023年4月7日 10

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Analytics 分析 Consulting 咨询

Data

Analy

sis and P

redictiv

e M

odelin

g

数据分析和预测模型

Spre

adsh

eet a

nd Fin

ancia

l Modelin

g

财务/

表单建模

Decisio

n-M

akin

g U

nder U

nce

rtain

ty

不确定情况下的决策

Sto

chastic In

vento

ry T

heory

库存理论

Risk A

naly

sis and S

imula

tion

风险分析和模拟

Dete

rmin

istic Optim

izatio

n

决策优化

Pro

ble

m-Fra

min

g a

nd S

ynth

esis

问题框架和假设

Neutra

l Facilita

tion w

ith E

nd-to

-End

Vie

w

端到端盈利能力视角

Know

ledge B

roke

ring A

cross

Busin

esse

s

跨业务知识共享

SC Network Design供应链网络设计Inventory & Capacity Setting库存和产能设计Planning (Ops, Orders, Projects)计划（运营、订单、项目）Forecasting预测Complexity Management / DfSC构成管理 /为供应链设计Customer & Marketing Analytics*客户 & 市场分析Other Business Decision Support**其它业务决策支持

The SPaM “sweet spot”: analytics and consulting skills matched to complex business problems：SPaM “sweet spot”: 分析和咨询技能解决复杂业务问题

业务问题Business Problems

Ops运营

X-Functional职能

* Customer & Marketing Analytics examples: channel replenishment strategy; pricing as an inventory balancing lever; risk analysis of big deal pricing; statistical benchmarking of margin and attach rates across accounts 客户和市场分析示例：渠道补货策略、库存平衡定价、大单定价风险分析、毛利率统计对标、不同客户毛利统计对标等** “Other Business Support” examples: warranty decision support; statistical benchmarking applied to returns or logistics rates; portfolio decision model for IP licensing 其它业务支持示例：保修决策支持、退货或物流费率的统计对标、知识产权许可组合决策模型

2023年4月7日 11

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The SPaM problem-solving process for projectsSPAM项目问题处理流程

• Clarify problem context and appropriateness (i.e., “is this the right problem to be working on?”)理清问题的情境和合适性（是不是要解决的问题？）

• Structure the problem by breaking it down into components将问题逐步分解细化

Framing and Structuring the Problem提出问题框架

Developing Hypotheses进行假设

Designing the Analysis设计分析计划

Synthesizing整合

• Use ingoing knowledge of problem and business context as start利用已掌握的知识和对业务情境的了解作为起点

• Refine with initial data-gathering interviews提炼原始数据收集访谈

• Employ rough-cut / pareto analysis to identify key drivers利用帕拉图等分析工具抓住核心动因

• Structure the analysis and work plan to test/prove the hypotheses制定分析和工作计划来验证相关的假设

• “Prune” the work plan where possible需要时修改工作计划

• Gather information to test the hypotheses收集信息验证相关假设

− Interviews访谈

− Business data业务数据

− External information外部信息

• Draw conclusions from the information collected从收集的信息总结结论

• Focus on insights and “so-what’s”关注“内涵”和”结果会怎样呢”

• Identify what can be learned beyond the specific problem提炼在此具体问题基础上，可以收获什么（问题内和问题外）

• Learn as you go along持续学习

Application of problem-solving skills across a typical project一个项目中的问题处理技能的应用示例

Project setup项目启动

Closure项目结束

Project delivery项目交付

Relationship

management

关系管理

Phases of engagement项目阶段

Gathering and Analyzing Information收集和分析信息

2023年4月7日 12

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SPaM as an innovation labSPaM 是一个创新试验室

Develop new business processes and methodologies to solve critical business problems faced by the hp businesses while maintaining a world class reputation for the company and the group开发新的业务流程和方法论解决HP面临的重要业务问题，确保HP世界一流的声誉 more than 12 patent applications filed between ’00 and ’06

covering innovation in inventory and capacity algorithms, forecasting methodologies and metrics, financial flows, modeling tools, and new business models2000－ 2006 年之间超过 12 个专利应用存档，覆盖库存和产能计算创新、预测方法论和指标、财务流、建模工具、新业务模式等领域

articles in a variety of business and operation research journals and magazines – including Harvard Business Review, Sloan Review, Supply Chain Management Review, Operations Research/Management Science and others在众多知名商业和运营研究杂志上发表大量论文—包括哈佛商业评论、供应链管理研究、 Sloan Review 、 Operations Research/Management Science 等等

white papers on a wide variety of topics for internal HP audiences大量针对 HP 内部的涉及众多主题的白皮书

2023年4月7日 13

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Roles and responsibilities角色和职责

• co-leads the project with SPaM与 SPaM 共同主导项目

•provides necessary resources提供必要资源

•data collection数据收集

Client 客户

• co-leads the project with customer与客户共同主导项目

• full-fledged member of the project team项目团队成员

• technical experts技术专家

•model development模型开发

SPaM

• scenario definition情境定义

•model specifications, data requirements模型设计、数据需求

• validation of data and model数据和模型验证

•analysis and recommendation分析和建议

2023年4月7日 14

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Keys to a successful project—working together项目成功的关键 – 一起努力

open communication开放式沟通

gathering and understanding data收集和理解数据

discussing model logic (avoid the “black box”)讨论模型逻辑 （避免“黑箱”）

validating assumptions and results验证假设和结论

good data, quickly数据好，快速

quick turnaround on requests需求快速反应

accurate information (critical to project success!)信息精确（对项目成功至关重要）

joint problem solving合作解决问题

we have complementary skills and knowledge--let’s use them!我们有互补的知识和技能 - 让我们共享它

2023年4月7日 15

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Examples of HP-SPaM efforts in forecasting惠普 SPaM 在预测方面的应用示例Topic主题

Deliverables交付品

Example Past Projects项目经验

SPaM PublicationsSPaM出版物

1. Forecast Process Improvement

预测流程改进

Assessment: governance & alignment, metrics, methodology, tools分析：管控 & 协调，指标，方法论、工具

Process recommendations:流程建议

objectives (why: what’s it used for)目标（为什么：用来干什么）

outputs (what, when)输出（什么，何时）

roles & responsibilities (who)角色和职责（谁）

ROI analysis: what’s it worth?投资回报率分析：值得吗？

Basic recommendations on metrics & methodology指标和方法论的初步建议

IPG EMEA Commercial (Jun’02)

IPG EMEA Consumer (Jun’02)

HP Home and Home Office (May ’06)

Forecast process assessment guide预测流程分析指导

2023年4月7日 16

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Examples of HP-SPaM efforts in forecasting惠普 SPaM 在预测方面的效用示例Topic主题 Deliverables 交付品 Example Past Projects项目

经验举例SPaM PublicationsSPaM输出文档

2. Forecast Metrics

预测指标

• SKU-level and portfolio-level metrics for forecast accuracy为了更精确的预测，需要 SKU层面和产品组合层面的指标

• Control limits for monitoring forecast error and bias管控预测错误和偏差的控制限定

• Excel/Access tool with manual data loads可手工输入数据的 Excel/Access工具

• BCS (Oct’03)• NSS Americas (Jun’03)• ISS Americas (Apr’03)

“ Measure, Then Manage”, APICS (Assoc. for Ops. Mgmt.), Oct’02

3. Forecast Methodology

预测方法论

• Data-driven, causal-factor approach to forecasting (e.g., short life cycle products)数据驱动，动因预测方法（如生命周期较短的产品）

− statistical analysis of predictive factors预测动因的统计分析

− estimated improvement and ROI改进和投资回报率

• Excel/Access tool with manual data loads可手工输入数据的 Excel/Access工具

• Cameras PLC Tool (Nov’04)

• PSGA Emerging Tech PLC Tool (Apr’03)

• NA Inkjet HW PLC Tool (Oct’02)

• Inkjet Hardware Long-Term Forecasting Tool (Dec’03)

“ Forecasting for Short-Lived Products: Hewlett Packard's Journey”, J. of Business Forecasting, Dec’02

2023年4月7日 17

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Four Elements of Good Forecasting良好预测 4 要素

Tools工具

(Automate)（自动化）

Process 流程

(Understand)（理解）

Metrics指标

(Measure)（衡量）

Methodology方法论

(Improve)（改进）

How we currently measure and reward现状：如何绩效评估和 奖赏

Generating alternative metric schemes产生可选的指标体系

Governance管控

Impact

Hypotheses or lists of frequent problems假设或常见问题列表

List of good practices良好实践列表

Template for process流程模板

Interviews with decision makers决策人访谈

The last step. New tools often not required for impact. 最后一步。

Goals are:目标- Save labor 节约人工

- Better accuracy 准确率提高

IT requirementsIT 需求- Robustness (beyond prototypes) - Links to SAP / other systems与 SAP/ 其它系统整合

Select best way to forecast选择最佳预测方法

Specific technical steps or issues具体技术步骤或者问题- Seasonality 季节性- Connect rates 连接率 - Other drivers 其它动因

2023年4月7日 18

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Metrics dashboard tool

to review key metrics and

allow scenario analysis for

alignment指标指示板工具，回顾关键指标，允

许情境分析Process 流程(understand)

理解

Metrics指标

(measure)衡量

Methods方法

(improve)改进

Tools工具

(automate)自动化

HP Home & Home Office Ops Forecasting惠普 H&H办公运营预测

Project Completion: May 2006

• Business need 业务需求− 运营和收入预测的协调流程很慢且不清晰− No forecast metrics across store没有门店的预测指标

− 缺乏结构化的流程来预测运营能力需求（呼叫中心、 IT 、仓库）

− 运营预测分析成孤岛状• SPaM 贡献

− Assessed gaps between current process and best practice, and designed store-wide forecast alignment process分析现状流程和母本之间差距，设计新的门店层面的预测流程

− Developed statistical forecasting tools and metrics dashboard tool开发了统计预测工具和指标指示工具

• Recommendations 建议− Adopt proposed process and newly

developed tools采用建议的流程和新开发的工具

• Value delivered 创造的价值− Operations planning aligned with

revenue forecast and Aspire planning运营计划与收入预测和 Aspire 计划保持一致

− Improved ops forecast accuracy to reduce costs of excess and shortage (multi-$M/yr) 运营预测准确性的提高降低了成本

− Improve quality of inputs to Aspire planning process提升了 Aspire 计划流程输入信息的质量

“Our forecasts are more accurate, the operational team is more aligned and we spend less time in meetings. Going forward, we will use what we learned on this project to make improvements in other areas of the store where we need to forecast.“我们的预测变得更加准确，运营团队协调更好，开会消耗的时间减少。持续改进，我们将在此项目中学到的用在其它预测领域，帮助改进。

-Cindi Zelanis, Manager Store Operations-HP Home & Home Office

ForecastingExcellence

精益预测

Cross-functional team with clear R&R to align key monthly marketing and ops forecasts跨职能团队，角色和职责分工明确，确保月度市场和运营预测一致

Statistical forecasting

tools:统计预测工具–daily calls

日电话–daily orders

日订单–quarterly

sales季度销售

Statistical analysis of

key predictive

factors关键预测动因

的统计分析

SPaM

2023年4月7日 19

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The NA IPG HW Forecasting StoryNA IPG HW 预测历史

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

1 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177 193 209 225 241 257 273 289 305 321 337 353 369 385 401 417

PL5M m-4 forecast accuracy (A-F)/F by sub platform, Oct 2000 – June 2004

PL5M m-4 预测精度 (A-F)/F， 2000年 10 月－ 2004年 6 月

Before 以前 After 以后9/02

Range of error “before

” is lower than

typical APJ

supplies error

2023年4月7日 20

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Outline目录• Historical Context历史情境

• Business Conditions & Requirements业务状况和需求

• Tool Capabilities工具能力

• Challenges Faced面临的挑战

• Keys to Success成功要素

• Next Steps下一步工作

• Closure

2023年4月7日 21

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Historical Context• Forecasting with ad-hoc Excel spreadsheets

预测所用的 Excel表格没有统一• Many key elements were being factored into the forecasts

(life cycle profile, seasonality, price drops, etc.)很多因素都被输入到预测（生命周期、季节性、降价等）

• No robust mechanism for handling key forecast elements缺乏管理预测动因的完善机制

• Limited ability to track the impact of changes or events (e.g., price reductions, high channel inventory, big deals)缺乏跟进变革和事项影响的能力（降价、高渠道库存、大单）

• No mechanism for rigorous analysis of forecast metrics (accuracy, bias, etc.)缺乏预测指标分析的机制（准确性、偏差等）

• Little consistency or sharing of best practices among analysts分析师之间缺乏一致性和最佳实践分享

• No aggregate analysis & reporting capability or process缺乏总体分析和报告能力或者流程

2023年4月7日 22

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Business Conditions & Requirements业务状况和需求• Forecast accuracy critical to platform profitability

预测的精确度对平台盈利能力至关重要• Long lead times (Asian sourcing)

长周期（亚太寻源）• Short product life cycle (PLC)

产品生命周期短暂• Run-rate actuals not available until late in build cycle

不能提供实时进度数据，直到制造周期才可以提取相关数据• Existing spreadsheet methodology was lacking in robustness and statistical rigor

现有表单方法缺乏活力和严格统计标准• Investigation showed time-series methods to be ineffective for short PLC

products调研显示，对短生命周期产品来说，基于时间序列的方法是无效的

• Tool & process requirements:工具 & 流程需求

− a uniform forecast-generating process一个统一的预测产生流程

− ability to rigorously represent PLC profiles, seasonality, & events代表产品生命周期概揽、季节性和事件性的能力

− capture of best practices 最佳实践获取

− better documentation of forecast assumptions预测假设更加文本化

− forecast accuracy feedback loop预测准确性反馈闭环

− aggregate analysis capability (due to product line convergence)综合分析能力

2023年4月7日 23

SPaM

Tool Capabilities工具能力• Generates a demand profile for new products based on life-

cycle, run-rate and seasonality parameters基于生命周期、 run-rate 和季节参数创建新产品需求概揽

• Enables powerful adjustment of demand profile by overlaying a suite of event templates

• Easy to reflect changes in timing of product launches产品上市时，更加容易反应其变化

• Self-documenting by maintaining underlying forecast context in a central database在集中的数据库维护预测

• “Auto-update” feature allows time-series checking once actuals are available自动更新特点提供了一旦实际数据出土即可进行按照时间序列的检查

• Enables rapid forecast iterations through roll-up and drill-down capabilityXXXX

• Enables simple and effective forecast accuracy analysis简单有效预测准确度分析

2023年4月7日 24

SPaM

Start with a generic PLC– Product Life Cycle起点是产品生命周期Runrate assumption, 12 month life, heavy stock-in periodrunrate 假设， 12 个月生命，高库存时期

2023年4月7日 25

SPaM

Layer on seasonality profile, statistically derived from history从历史数据统计分析得出季节性变化规律

2023年4月7日 26

SPaM

Layer on events such as price drops 特殊事件驱动的变化（如降价）e.g., this product had price drops in Mar03 and Jun03如本产品 3 月号和 6月 3号有降价活动

2023年4月7日 27

SPaM

Layer on additional events;附加事件驱动的变化Capture explanatory comments using the Event View使用 Event View抓取解释说明

2023年4月7日 28

SPaM

Aggregate forecast is plotted below,综合的预测如下面的点图And can be compared to actuals and short-term demand signal可以和实际数字和短期需求对比

2023年4月7日 29

SPaM

John Solomon约翰 .所罗门

• Was VP Consumer Imaging & Printing, IPG North America – now promoted前 IPG北美副总裁—现已升职

• Executive Sponsor执行发起人

• Forecast accuracy, a critical metric for business management, improved through the use of the PLC tool.预测精度，对业务管理至关重要的指标。通过产品生命周期工具能够大大改进提升精度

• The implementation of PLC tool has increased analyst productivity:实施 PLC工具大大提高了分析师效率：

− It allowed the analysts to spend more time on understanding business trends and developing insights.它给分析师们提供了更多的时间去理解业务趋势和发展内涵

• The PLC tool raised the quality of the aggregate views and insight provided to management.PLC工具提升了为管理层提供的全局和内涵的质量

• Analysts are more easily able to share best practices and learnings after standardizing on the PLC tool.PLC工具标准化让分析师更加容易分享最佳实践和学习经验

2023年4月7日 30

SPaM

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

1 17 33 49 65 81 97 113 129 145 161 177 193 209 225 241 257 273 289 305 321 337 353 369 385 401 417

Results: Improved Forecast Accuracy效果：改进的预测精确度

• More accurate forecasts更加准确的预测

• Aggregated views of the business整体视角看业务

• Improved analyst productivity:提升分析师效率

− Leveraging of last month’s forecast平衡上个月的预测

− Sharing of best practices最佳实践分享

− Leveraging of one another’s forecasts不同预测之间的平衡

− Ability to cross-train and back-fill互相培训，互相支持的能力

• Capabilities that allow in-depth analysis深度分析能力

PL5M m-4 forecast accuracy (A-F)/F by sub platform, Oct 2000 – June 2004

Before PLC tool

After PLC tool9/02

2023年4月7日 31

SPaM

Challenges Faced面临的挑战• Forecast stakeholders believed time-series

methods produced “better” results预测专家认为基于时间序列的方法，结论更合理

• The merits of a PLC-approach weren’t immediately apparent产品生命周期方法的优点不能立刻明显体现

• Risk that the tool would have to be abandoned due to standardization on APO demand planner鉴于 APO 需求计划的标准化，质疑该工具已经不适用。

• Obtaining IT support to migrate from a prototype to an operational tool获取 IT 支持将原型转变为一个可以操作的工具。

2023年4月7日 32

SPaM

Keys to Success成功关键1. Low risk / low investment required

低风险、低投资2. A close-knit team comprising a strong theoretician, a

flexible and user-oriented developer, and a solid set of seasoned forecast practitionersxxx

3. Management support throughout the project贯穿项目始终的管理支持

4. Superior conceptual approach & mathematics as demonstrated through higher forecasting accuracy通过较高的预测精度验证了超级的概念方法和数学模型

5. Exceptional usability of the tool工具的例外使用能力

6. Flexible / powerful “event templates” (enabling simple capture and documentation of forecast drivers)灵活 /强力的“事件模板”（驱动预测动因的简便抓取和文件化）

7. Ease of iteration and aggregation (through roll-up and drill-down capability)xxxx

2023年4月7日 33

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in supply chain network analysisSPaM 在供应链网络分析方面的支持示例

Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验

SPaM Publications

SPaM 出版物1. Supply chain network strategy供应链网络战略

• Understanding of current state理解现状

− mapping of SC length and locations匹配供应链长度和地点

− cost analysis: TE, IDC, MOH, tax成本分析： TE, IDC, MOH, 税

• Development of alternative SC strategies linked to business strategy设计基于业务战略的可选供应链战略

− customer value propositions, fulfillment models, hub & mfg. locations by product type客户价值诉求，交付模式，不同产品类型的 hub/ 制造地点

• Key findings on cost and turn-around time opportunities, tradeoffs, & risks成本和周期的机会、成本和风险的关键发现

• NA consumer desktops (Oct’05)

• NA commercial desktops & notebooks (Oct’05)

• NA inkjet low touch strategy (Oct’04)

“ The Re-Engineering of Hewlett-Packard's CD-RW Supply Chain”, SC Mgmt. International Journal, ‘02

2023年4月7日 34

SPaM

Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验

SPaM Publications

SPaM 出版物

2. Network optimization

网络优化

• Optimization of number and location of nodes in the network 网络环节的个数和地点的优化

− from hundreds of possible combinations of inbound hub, mfg. site & outbound hub来源于几百个可能的进料 hub 、工厂地址、出货 hub 的组合

− optimization = minimize cost structure, while meeting turn-around-time specification最优 = 成本最小，同时要满足周期的要求

• ESS EMEA SC (Nov’04)

• IPG E.Europe SC (Oct’04)

• PSG EMEA SC (Jul’04)

“ HP Combined OR and Expert Knowledge to Design Its Supply Chains”, Interfaces, Jun’05

3. Supply chain complexity analysis

供应链复杂度分析

• Analysis to understand key “hidden cost” drivers masked by average TE, IDC, MOH cost metrics理解关键“隐形成本“动因的分析：TE,IDC,MOH

− Examples: expediting costs between multiple hubs, material costs driven by inbound hub complexity, true cost-to-serve major customers, cost-risk tradeoff of one vs many ODM partners.示例：不同 hub之间快件成本，进料hub 复杂度驱动的物料成本，真实的服务主要客户成本，合作伙伴的成本 /风险与ODM 伙伴的对比

• NA inkjet low touch strategy [partial] (Oct’04)

Examples of SPaM support in supply chain network analysisSPaM 在供应链网络分析方面的支持示例

2023年4月7日 35

SPaM

What are these?这些是什么？

Hint: What do I do for a living?提示：要想活着，我应该怎么做？

2023年4月7日 36

SPaM

ESS – EMEA SC network optimization企业存储与服务 – 欧洲、中东和非洲供应链网络优化

Problem Statement: 问题描述：• The current ESS EMEA Supply Chain is complex;

having numerous nodes and diverse product routings from source through to the customer delivery point现状供应链太复杂，环节太多，多元的从寻源到交付的产品路径

Objective 目标 :• Define the optimum ESS EMEA Supply Chain

network structure i.e. determine the number and location of all the nodes in the network定义最优的 ESS EMEA 供应链网络架构，也就是说：决定网络中所有环节的数量和地点

Project Completion: Nov 2004

Customer Feedback 客户反馈 :Findings and approach

关键发现和方法 :• 2 DC’s looks to provide no

advantage but has adverse cost2 个 DC看上去没有带来效益，但带来了成本

• Little or nothing to choose between having and not having a DC with (provider) having the slight edge but deltas are within noise level of the analysis

• Exception - Merged orders entirely sourced from DC up to X days TAT例外： X 天 TAT

• SC network optimization through MIP modeling通过 MIP 模型优化供应链网络

Recommendation 建议 :•Number & location of inbound

(VMI) HUBs feeding the 2 HP manufacturing sites进料 (VMI)hub 的数量和选址，服务两个 HP生产地点

•Number & location of finished goods (SOI) HUBs & distribution points shipping finished product to either the customer or the consolidation points成品 hub 和分销点的数量和选址，将成品发运到客户或者货物整合地点

•Number & location of consolidation points merging product & shipping to the customer货物整合点的数量和选址（将货物发送到客户）

SPaM helped us to clearly identify the cost implications of the various network node scenarios and in particular the cost drivers. Based on the results we have started the implementation of a merge centre at what was determined as the optimum location, from the available alternatives and we are now re-scoping the product being considered for a potential future distribution centre. SPaM 帮助我们清晰分析了各网络环节的成本启示和成本动因。依据结果，我们已经开始在一个理想的地点实现统一的中心。Thank youDouglas Reid EMEA SC PMO

SPaM

Confidential Data Removed保密数据已删除

2023年4月7日 37

SPaM

IPG Eastern Europe Supply Chain Network AnalysisIPG 东欧供应链网络分析

Project Findings & Recommendations: 项目发现和建议：• €6M annual savings possible in EE with loosened outbound transit time and splitting some

products on two PCCs 给东欧地区带来每年约€ 600万的节约。

• For IPG product completion operations, EE labor savings are mostly offset by freight increases.从 IPG 产品交付运营角度来看，东欧人工成本的节约 基本上和运费的增加抵消。

• Total costs vary greatly between different locations and for different product lines.不同地区、不同产品线之间总成本差异很大

• For IPG EMEA Hardware X is the preferred representative location 针对 IPG EMEA硬件 X 来说，这是较理想的地点。

Project Objective:项目目标：Identify optimal Printer Completion Center network in Eastern Europe (EE) for IPG EMEA Hardware为了 IPG/EMEA 的硬件业务，在东欧地区设计”打印机产品完成中心“网络• Determine which products & how much volume should be postponed and distributed

via an EE PCC决定哪些产品，多大数量应该由东欧的”打印机产品完成中心“来分销

• Quantify savings possible via an EE node定量分析通过东欧”打印机产品完成中心“这一环节带来的节约

• Define preferred location among 4 representative EE choices从 4 个可选项中，确定最终的地点

KladnoKladno KatowiceKatowice

SarvarSarvarTimisoaraTimisoara

2023年4月7日 38

SPaMSPaM

Customer Feedback: 客户反馈：“SPaM’s professional approach and use of an optimization model helped IPG EMEA Management understand the key drivers for and against putting PCC content in EE. This provides an excellent basis for our decision making process. SPaM helped us identify a €6M cost saving opportunity by using an EE PCC location. We appreciate SPaM’s dedication & involvement during, but also after the project when building consensus in the management team and developing a path forward.”SPaM专业的方法和优化模型的使用，帮助 IPG EMEA 管理层理解了在东欧是否设立” 打印机完成中心“的关键驱动要素。为决策提供了极好的基础。帮助我们实现了每年约€ 600万的节约。我们非常感激 SPaM 团队在项目中，和项目后期展现的奉献、积极和参与的工作面貌。Reinhard Winkler, Vice President, IPG Supply ChainIPG 供应链副总裁Operations EMEAEMEA 运营

Relative Importance of Drivers动因相对重要性

No Transit Time constraint无运输时间限制D

emand EE

+50%

东欧

需求

增长

50％

+

A%

Low

-tou

ch S

C

Low

tou

ch 供

应链

Decrease Outbound Frt减少成品运费

X%

Decrease

Inbound FRT降

低进料

运费

Dec

reas

edLa

bor co

st

降低

人工

成本

B%C%

Y% Z%

S%

The single largest sensitivity impact on the EE MOH content and therefore saving potential comes from removing the X constraint. This is true as an isolated change and in combination with other sensitivity drivers.唯一敏感性最大的是东欧 MOH ，因此剔除 X 限制条件潜在节约最大。这对于一个独立的变更和与其它变量一起分析来看都是真实的。

IPG Eastern Europe Supply Chain Network AnalysisIPG 东欧供应链网络分析

2023年4月7日 39

SPaM

Example: Serving the US from Guadalajara vs. Singapore示例：从 Guadalajara 服务美国和从新加坡服务美国的对比• How the supply chain impacts company competitiveness from a high level

metrics perspective从高层次指标角度来看，供应链如何影响公司的竞争力

• Frame the problem:问题框架：− The major supply chain cost categories主要的供应链成本类型

− Product attributes that drive these costs驱动这些成本的产品属性

• Do some analysis together:一起做一些分析：− Insights that can be drawn about Guadalajara’s inherent strengths vs. other region

分析Guadalajara 的优势以及和其它地区的对比− Areas that Guadalajara needs to work on to improve relative competitive advantage

提供 Guadalajara 需要改进来提升其相对竞争力的领域。

2023年4月7日 40

SPaM

How Does the Supply Chain Impact Business Performance?供应链如何影响业务绩效？

EVA =

Inventory days

库存天数

Receivable days

应收天数

Payable days

应付天数

Cash-to-Cash Cycle现金到现金周期

Inventory-driven Costs

库存 - 驱动成本

(Net Revenues

Net Assets

* cost of capital)

- Costs) - (

Freight, Tax and Duties

运费、税、关税

Material and Manufacturing

物料和制造

Customer Service

客户服务

Time lag

Supply chain efficiency

供应链效率

PP&E固定资产

经济增加值 净收入 成本

净资产 资本成本

2023年4月7日 41

SPaM

The Major Supply Chain Cost Categories主要供应链成本类型

Singapore新加坡

Asia亚洲

Europe欧洲

Ireland爱尔兰

Jalisco, MX墨西哥

North America Market北美市场

Categories类型 :

Manufacturing制造成本 :- equipment costs 设备成本- labor rates 人工成本- efficiency 效率

Freight运费 :- transit costs 转发成本- transit times 转发次数- reliability 可靠性

Inventory库存 :- Financing 资金积压成本- devaluation 减值- speed & reliability 速度和可靠性

Tax关税 :- profit margin 利润率

2023年4月7日 42

SPaM

Comparing Guadalajara to the other regions拿 Guadalajara 与其它地区对比• Advantages:

优势− Labor 人工成本

• Guadalajara rates are 15% to 25% of the rates in other regions Guadalajara 的人工成本约是其它地区的 15％到 25％

− Freight vs. Inventory trade-off运费和库存比较• If air: lower freight costs into the market for similar inventory levels空运：相同库存水平下，较低的运费成本

• If surface: lower system inventory costs for similar freight costs海运：相同运费下，较低的系统库存成本

• Disadvantages:劣势− Tax税收

• Lack of tax rebate缺乏税收折扣

− Inventory 库存• Poor relative transportation infrastructure and delays from customs

clearance相对较落后的运输基础设施，清关常延误

2023年4月7日 43

SPaM

Product Attributes That Drive Supply Chain Selection驱动供应链选择的产品属性• Products at a high level can be represented as a set of attributes that

drive each of the identified cost categories高层次的产品可以有一系列的属性来阐述，这些属性决定了成本类别：

• The important attributes:重要的属性包括：

− Labor content人工含量

− Weight重量

− Inventory holding costs库存保持成本

• Component devaluation, short product life-cycles, etc..配件减值、生命周期缩短等

− Profit margin利润率

• drives tax savings benefit税务节约

2023年4月7日 44

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How High-Tech Products Compare Along These Attributes在这些属性上，高科技产品如何比较

HP ProductsHP 产品

Labor

Content

人工含量

Weight

重量

Inventory

Cost Rate库存费率

Product Margin

利润率

Camera照相机

Very L很低

L低

H高

L低

InkJet Printer喷墨打印机

M中等

M中等

M中等

M中等

Desktop PC个人电脑

L低

M中等

H高

L to M低到中等

Large Format Inkjet Printer大型喷墨打印设备

H高

H高

L低

H高

2023年4月7日 45

SPaM

Comparing the Supply Chains for a mid-range Desktop PC用一个中等个人台式电脑来分析比较供应链成本：

• Product Characteristics:产品特点− Average Price = $1000

平均价格=1000美金− 1 man-hour labor1个小时人工

− 12.5 kg12.5公斤

− Devalues at 50% / year每年减值50％

− Profit Margin ~ 5%利润率5％

• Demand:需求− 250k / month

25万 /月− 40% uncertainty

40％不确定性

Scenario Supply Chain CostComparison ($ / unit)

不同情境供应链成本比较

NOTE: This simple example is meant for illustrative purposes only

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GDLSurface

SingAir

SingSurf

IrelandAir

-10

$6.3

$37.5

$6.3

$25.0

Freight

$1.8$7.6 $7.6 $11.0

MOH Inventory

$20.6

$19.7

$56.6$19.7

Totals: $29 $60 $66 $52

$(4.8)$(2.4)

Tax savings

$(4.8)

2023年4月7日 46

SPaM

Comparing the Supply Chains for a large format printer用一个大型打印机来分析比较供应链成本：

• Product Characteristics产品特点 :− Average Price = $5000

平均价格=5000美金− 8 man-hours labor8个小时人工

− 150 kg150公斤

− Devalues at 15% / year每年减值15％

− Profit Margin ~ 25%利润率25％

• Demand:需求− 50k / month

5万 /月− 75% uncertainty

75％不确定性-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

GDLSurface

SingAir

SingSurf

IrelandAir

-200

Scenario Supply Chain CostComparison ($ / unit)

不同情境供应链成本比较

MOH

$14$61 $61 $88

Freight

$75

$450

$75

$300

Tax savings

$(121) $(121) $(86)

Totals: $123 $423 $96 $335

Inventory

$33

$33

$81

$33

NOTE: This simple example is meant for illustrative purposes only

2023年4月7日 47

SPaM

When do we source from Guadalajara?在什么情况下选取 Guadalajara？

• For certain products: 对一些产品：− When they play to Mexico’s strengths: low margin, relatively heavy products which devalue

fast:当墨西哥的优势体现明显时：低利润率、重量相对大、减值快

• PC’s, desktop printers, VCR’s, DVD’s, etc..个人电脑、台式打印机、 VCR/DVD等

− Avoid products where competitive advantage is low: high margin, low devaluation rate products 避免一些竞争优势较低的产品：高利润率、减值慢的产品

• high end servers, high end printers, etc.. 高端服务器、高端打印机等

• When structure improves:当架构改进时：− Improve infrastructure to increases proximity advantages: ports, roads, custom clearance

processes.改善基础设施：港口、道路、清关流程等

− Work to gain a tax break for local product introduction to offset Asian & Irish advantage争取税收优惠，抵消亚洲和爱尔兰等地的竞争优势

2023年4月7日 48

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in inventory managementSPaM 在库存管理方面的支持举例Topic主题

Deliverables交付品

Example Past Projects项目经验

SPaM Publications 出版物

1. Systems-view of Inventory & Supply Chain Performance系统 – 库存和供应链绩效视角

•Analysis & recommendations on joint levers for improving inventory & responsiveness改进库存和反应速度的分析和建议

−inventory targets, capacity targets, planning process, forecasting process & metrics, …库存目标、产能目标、计划流程、预测流程和指标…

•Excel tool supporting operational decisionsEXCEL工具支持运营决策

•Opportunity assessment and ROI analysis机会评估和投资回报分析

• EIP Windows Planning (‘05)

• BCS Demo Inventory (’05)

• PSGA Material Wait Time (’05)

• BPC Order Allocation Logic (’03)

• Cameras Value of Responsiveness (‘03)

•“ Value of Time in Supply Chains,” Inside SC Mgmt, Feb & Apr’04

•White Paper on DI application, “Effective Use of Demand Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making,” May’04

2023年4月7日 49

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in inventory management（ SPaM 在库存管理方面的支持举例）Topic主题 Deliverables 交付品 Example Past Projects

项目经验SPaM Publications出版物

2. Channel Inventory Management渠道库存管理

• Modeling and recommendations to improve channel partner inventory management改进渠道伙伴库存管理的模型和建议

• Ordering rules and allocation logic to align supply chain incentives订单规则和分配逻辑来匹配供应链激励

• IPG Office Max (’06)• IPG NA 2-way commit (‘02)• Wal*Mart (‘99)• Office Depot (’99)

“ Effective Collaboration,” ORMS (Operations Research/Management Science Today), Oct. ‘01

3. Inventory WOS targets (FGI, parts)库存 WOS目标（成品、配件）

• Metrics and targets for part inventory management配件库存管理的指标和目标

• Tools (e.g., Excel and/or Access)工具（如 EXCEL和 /或ACCESS)

• Notebooks Inventory Target Setting (’05)

• NACC Monitors (’05) • BCS Components

(’04)• LJ Supplies Planning

(’04)• GSO EMEA (’03)

“ Part Tool, Part Process,” ORMS (Operations Research/Management Science Today) , Oct ‘99

2023年4月7日 50

SPaM

Service

Weeks of Supply

80% 100%

0

10

Measure customer service and the investment required评估客户服务水平和所需投入：

2023年4月7日 51

SPaM

stock out缺货

Inven

tory 库

存

safety stock level安全库存水平

t t+L R+tR+t+L 2R+t2R+t+L

R = Review PeriodR = Review PeriodL = Supplier Lead timeL = Supplier Lead time

Why do we carry safety stock?我们为什么需要安全库存？

2023年4月7日 52

SPaM

SupplierSupplier 供应供应商商 CustomerCustomer 客户客户 Mean Replenishment

Time补货时间均值

Replenishment time variability (std dev)补货时间方差（标准差）

Mean Demand or Consumption 需求或消费均值

Demand variability (std dev)需求方差（标准差）

Operating PoliciesOperating Policies运营政策运营政策 Service

Level 服务水平

Review Period检查期间

Supplier 供应商(factory 工厂 )

Customer客户

DC

DC as a storage depotDC 作为一个储存点

•no value add没有增加价值•instant order fulfill即刻订单执行

What drives inventory levels?什么驱动库存水平？

2023年4月7日 53

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Tech Center技术中心

Procurement采购

MTA

Micro

PCAC

MID

Cust

om

er

客户

SC segment #4Vendor Inventory

供应商库存

SC segments #2 & #3FGI

SC segments #5FGI

SC segments #1FGI

Supply chain for a test instrument business测试仪器业务的供应链

2023年4月7日 54

SPaM

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ers

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its)

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ipm

ents

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nit

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s!

Inventory maintained at a constant level

PIT Goes “Live”

Unconstrained

Shipments!

Results: backorders and shipments结果：未交付订单和转运订单

2023年4月7日 55

SPaM

...by employing the PIT, our planners cut FGI levels by 12%. The reduction in finished goods inventory was $1.6 million, while on-time delivery performance improved from 93% to 97%!通过应用 PIT ，我们的计划人员将成品库存水平下降了 12％，价值 1600万美金。同时按时交付绩效从 93％提升到 97％。

Ray Ernenwein

Lead Supply Chain Engineer

Integrated Circuit Fabrication Division

We have applied this in retail, light mfg, even IC fabrication!我们已经将其应用在零售业、轻制造业，甚至 IC 制造业。

2023年4月7日 56

SPaM

From Insight to Action 从观察到行动Inventory Optimization with Wal*Mart沃尔玛库存优化

Very large and profitable retailer, yet had been unprofitable in their electronic goods category; losing millions of dollars per year due to mark downs.沃尔玛作为规模很大且赢利性较好的零售商，其电子产品系列却不盈利；每年因为减值损失几百万美金。

In stores the inventory setting rule for HP hardware was “one to show and two to go”; each store’s inventory stocking goal was the same.在门店里面，库存的规则是： HP 的硬件“一个展出，两个卖出”。每个门店的库存目标都相同。

Sales force recognized they could work with Wal*Mart to optimize inventory, cutting losses from mark downs and increasing sales.销售团队发现可以和沃尔玛合作优化库存，降低减值损失，提高销量。

HPwarehouses

Wal*Martwarehouses

Wal*Martstores

2 24 2400

Inventory

Goal: ImproveHP product availability, sales, & inventory turns!

HP 仓库

沃尔玛仓库

沃尔玛门店

目标：提升 HP产品可获取性、销售和库存周转！

2023年4月7日 57

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Low Low/Med Medium Med/High High

Deskjet 400L 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.3Deskjet 694 5.7 2.7 1.8 1.5 1.2

Officejet 500 4.7 NA 2.9 1.9 1.551626A 2.9 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.751641A 3.1 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.0

t-shirt transfer 4.5 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.3

WOS targets Product Demand at a Store

HP and Wal*Mart 惠普和沃尔玛Inventory Optimization库存优化

SPaM worked with Wal*Mart to get weekly POS (point of sale) data for each store and delivery performance data from HP to their warehouses for hundreds of orders.SPaM 和沃尔玛合作，获取了沃尔玛每个门店周 POS销售数据和 HP交付到其仓库的绩效数据

Together these inputs were used to calculate how much inventory should be held at each of their 24 warehouses and 2400 stores. The table is typical of the output that we produced.这些输入被用来计算沃尔玛 24 个仓库和 2400 个门店每个仓库的库存水平。右边的图表展示了相关的研究成果。

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SPaM Retail SummarySPaM零售应用总结

Customer Feedback: 客户反馈“HP Named Supplier of the Year by World‘s Largest Retailer: Hewlett-Packard Company is the Supplier of the Year for electronic goods by WalMart Stores, Inc. WalMart’s Supplier of the Year awards recognize business partners who consistently demonstrate excellence in product performance, pricing, marketing, shipping and customer service. HP‘s innovative supply-chain-management models help WalMart reduce inventory-related stock costs. In addition to the Supplier of the Year award for electronic goods, HP won WalMart’s Supplier of the Quarter award.” HP被世界最大的零售商评为”年度最佳供应商“：惠普是沃尔玛本年度电子产品的最佳供应商。沃尔玛的年度供应商奖是对合作伙伴持续证明其产品绩效、价格、营销、装运和客户服务等精益运营的认可。 HP 创新的供应链管理模型帮助沃尔玛降低库存成本。同时 HP还获得了沃尔玛季度最佳供应商奖。

source: HP Press Release

Project Outcomes:项目成果：1. Tripled sales in <12 months. 12 个月内销售增加到 3倍2. Dramatic write down reduction. 降低大量注销3. Improved product availability to customers and inventory turns. 提升了产品的客户可获取性和库存周转水平

In-

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$3.4

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$4.7$5.7

$4.7

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$8.3

$10.1

productrollover

Christmas

InventoryTurns

In-

Stock%

Program 项目Launch 启动

75.0

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$8.3

$10.1

productrollover

Christmas

2023年4月7日 59

SPaM

Service

Weeks of Supply

80% 100%

0

10

Shifts per Day

Make-to-order (no FGI)按单制造（无成品库存）

Capacity and service level产能和服务水平

2023年4月7日 60

SPaM

• How long is the waiting time for a printer if the daily demand is always 100, and the line can build 100 perfect printers every day?如果打印机的每天需求量稳定为 100 ，生产线每天可以生产100台合格的打印机。那么一台打印机的等待时间是多少？

• How long is the waiting time if either the daily demand or build capacity are not exact, but only averages?如果打印机的每天需求量和生产线每天产量都不是精确的一个数字，而只是平均数，那么一台打印机的等待时间是多少？

Queuing quiz小测验

2023年4月7日 61

SPaM

$0.0

$2.0

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$6.0

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$16.0

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

M$ per year

Excess capacity (%)

Inventory cost 库存成本

Capacity cost 产能成本

Total cost总成本

With current demand and line configuration, 20% idle capacity and 15 DOS minimize

the total cost for the Zebra line在此点，基于需求和产线状况， 20％产能空闲， 15天库存，是总成本最低的最佳状态

Today

The “sweet spot”甜”点“（最佳点）

Numbers are illustrative only 数据仅供图示用

2023年4月7日 62

SPaM

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

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M$ per year

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制造

Excess capacity (%)产能富余

Mfg TAT制造周期

Total cost总成本

$12MToday今日

How expensive is 1 day TAT?1 天的交货周期有多贵？

Numbers are illustrative only 数据仅供图示用

每年百万美金 周期（天）

2023年4月7日 63

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in warrantySPaM 在保修上的支持示例

Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验SPaM Publications/patent applications 出版物

1. Warranty strategy保修战略

• Repair strategy维修战略

• Support network analysis (Call center, Delivery model + Spares)支持网络分析（呼叫中心、交付模式＋配件）

• IPG EMEA Support Strategy (’04)

• IPG AP Support Strategy (Mar’05)

• IPG/PSG Cons. Prod. N.Am Call Center Transition Cost Analysis (Jun’03)

“ Is Offshoring Really Cheaper?”, Call Center Magazine, Jan 2004

2. Warranty policy decisions保修政策决策

• Warranty prediction model 保修预测模型

−Framing of analysis 框架分析 −Simulation of installed base 已装机模拟−Sensitivity analysis 敏感性分析

• Recommended customer warranty policy建议的客户保修政策

• IPG Inkjet System (Feb’03)

• Laser Hardware Support Supply Chain Improvement (’03)

“ Setting Warranty Policy for Products that generate Annuity Streams”, Wty Week, 2004.“Reinventing Warranty at HP: an Engineering Approach to Warranty.”, Qual. and Reliability Eng. Int’l, 2003.

2023年4月7日 64

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in warranty

Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验SPaM Publications/patent applications 出版物

3. Warranty planning

保修计划

•Conceptual mapping of key cost drivers关键成本动因的概念性匹配

•Cost savings for given plan of record既定计划下的成本节约

•Planning model development计划模型开发

• ESS SPAR Warranty Planning Model (Jun’04)

• BCS Warranty Opportunity Model (Aug’05)

“ Data-driven Warranty Management”, Warranty Chain Mgt Conf. 2005

4. Detailed warranty deep dive

保修深度挖掘

•Cost driver mapping成本动因匹配

•Data-driven root cause identification基于数据的究因

•ESG - HP9000 Warranty Deep Dive (Dec’03)

•ESG Warranty cost pareto analysis (Mar’03)

2023年4月7日 65

SPaM

BCS Warranty Opportunity ModelBCS 保修机会模型

• Business need 业务需求− BCS needed to better understand the drivers of warranty costs to

accelerate improvementBCS 需要更好的了解保修成本的动因，以加速改进

− BCS lacked tools to implement better data-driven warranty management BCS缺乏工具来帮助实施基于数据的保修管理

• SPaM contribution SPaM 的贡献− Developed cost driver map

设计了成本动因地图− Built the Warranty Opportunity Model

设计了保修机会模型− Provided training and documentation

提供培训和文档• Findings and recommendations 发现和建议

− The sensitivity model is very effective to ensure proper focus of resources敏感性分析模型对确保资源集中针对性运用非常有效

− Providing accurate data into the SPAR process helps to set realistic targets 为 SPaM 流程提供精确的数据，帮助实现有实际意义的目标

• Value delivered 交付的价值− The model has been fully implemented and is being used by the

BCS warranty team模型已 经完全实施了，且为 BCS 保修团队所使用

− It has been used to re-set SPAR targets in a data-driven way被用来重设 SPAR目标

− The model enables the valuation of warranty initiatives in a matter of hours instead of weeks—critical to development of the POR模型对保修管理的评估到小时层面而不是周层面，对 POR 的发展至关重要。

“ The BCS Warranty Opportunity Model is a giant step forward in our ability to plan our warranty activities. BCS 保修机会模型帮助我们计划保修活动的能力提升了巨大的一步。

“[The model] will ensure our warranty reduction efforts are focused on the right drivers”

该模型将 确保我们的保修管理侧重在正确的动因上。Lorne Miller, BCS Warranty Program Manager

SPaM

2023年4月7日 66

SPaM

Time + usage policy for Indra doubles the

warranty period while saving $84/unit!

时间＋用量的措施将保修期提高到 2倍，而成本却降低了每单位 84 美金

$0

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orAvr

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Weighted Average Time NozomiWeighted Average Time Indra

Warranty $ per unit shipped

Weighted average of warranty

policy length in months

Significant Warranty Cost Savings极大的保修成本节约Better predictions allow improved policies更好的预测带来措施的改进

“This translates to a cost reduction of > than $5M over product life. We developed a repeatable process for predicting warranty costs and accruals more accurately. SPaM was a great catalyst, we anticipate great benefits to SPO from this work. Thank you!“这带来了产品生命周期中超过 500万美金的成本降低。我们设计了一个可以复制的流程（预测保修成本）。 SPaM 是一个巨大的催化剂，我们期望从 SPO 中获得更大的效益。Kevin Deats, Customer Experience Manager SPOMarcos Esterman, Quality Process Development Engineer SPO

Current 12 month warranty policy is cost

effective for Nozomi现在的 12 个月保修政策对 Nozomi 是有成本竞争

力的

alternative warranty policies

A usage and time dependent warranty event model allows the design of warranty policies. In some cases we can increase customer service while simultaneously reducing HP’s warranty expense!基于用量和时间的保修模型有助于保修政策的设计。在一些情况下，可以增加客户服务，同时降低 HP 保修费用

2023年4月7日 67

SPaM

IPG / PSG - NA Call Center Transition Cost AnalysisIPG/PSG： NA呼叫中心转型成本分析 An integrated cost-benefit analysis of ramps 一个完整的成本效益分析

We are moving call centers to India to take advantage of lower cost per call minute. These moves result in reduced CSAT while the new centers are ‘ramping’ as well as HP training + transition costs.我们正在将呼叫中心转移到印度来获取每分钟呼叫的低成本。这带来了 CAST 的降低，同时新的中心…

Tell us: Are the moves to India in HP’s best interest?告诉我们：转变对 HP 是否带来效益？

Develop a model that allows us to run alternative call center scenarios – to determine the cost and benefit associated with our transition plans.设计了一个模型，帮助分析不同情境下运营的效果分析 – 进行成本效益分析Project innovation: Integrated cost model includes

quantification of repurchase rate changes due to customer satisfaction increase or decrease.项目创新：整合成本模式，包括因客户满意度变动带来的再购率变化的量化分析

Customer Feedback: “This project exceeded all my expectations; the financial modeling was exceptional. The team provided us a good model to run different call center ramp scenarios, and highlighted the importance of changing partner contracts to focus on pooled call volumes. We expect to save >$4M per year as a result of the transition of our business to offshore locations. This tool will allow us to plan the type of partner ramps we can afford and effectively predict “breakeven” and savings over time. Thank you!客户反馈：本项目成果超过了我的预期。财务模型特别好。项目团队给我们提供了一个不同情境下的呼叫中心模型，同时强调将合作合同转变为侧重呼叫数量的重要性。我们期望节约超过每年 400万美金，帮助我们转变业务模式为离岸模式。该工具帮助我们规划我们能够履行的合作，并有效预计加班时的盈亏平衡和节约。多谢！

Maria Martinez Director, IPG Voice and Contracts Services, US Consumer Support

$1,661

$1,281

$711

$402

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000

vCustomer, PL 6J

SGL, PL 6J

vCustomer, PL 83

SGL, PL 83

Sample Expected Values and ranges for NPV ($K)价值净现值示例（ $ 千）

NPV includes: 净现值包括：- CSAT delta costs (using system profits) CAST 成本变化量（使用系统利润）- Operating costs运营成本

- Startup costs, including training启动成本，包括培训All India ramps positive NPV

within first year!所有在第一年实现正净现金流

> 50:1 ROI

2023年4月7日 68

SPaM

Examples of SPaM support in DfSCSPaM 在”为供应链设计“上的支持Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验SPaM Publications

出版物1. Variety control (customer-facing variety: SKU’s, platforms, features)偏差控制（客户面对差异： SKU‘s ，平台、特点等）

• End-to-end cost of complexity analysis (variable + opex costs)端到端成本构成分析（变动＋运营成本）

• Guidelines: minimum “efficient scale” SKU or platform volume, target “efficient scale” feature volume, or cost/unit premiums on low volume features方针：最小的有效规模的SKU 或者平台数量，目标有效规模的产品特点数量，或者较少数量产品特点的产品单位成本溢出

• ROI calculators (Excel) for cost-benefit screening投资回报率计算（ EXCEL)

• Governance process & metrics管控流程和指标

• Notebook features (Oct’05)

• ISS EMEA SKU’s, platforms (Oct’05)

• NA consumer desktop SKU’s (Oct’04)

• IPG EMEA and APJ consumer SKU’s (Jan’06)

• IPG APJ commercial SKU’s (July ’07)

“ Managing Product Line Complexity”, OR/MS Today, Jun’05

2023年4月7日 69

SPaM

Topic

主题Deliverables

交付品Example Past Projects

项目经验SPaM Publications

出版物2. Commonality and Re-use (back-end variety: parts and platforms)

通用性和再利用（后端差异：配件和平台）

• End-to-end benefit and cost predictions for alternative degrees of part commonality; products, product families, and product categories.端到端效益和成本预测：可选的配件通用性程度；产品、产品家族、产品系列

• LaserJet Univ.Power (’05)

• ISS Rough Cut (’05)

“ How Rough Cut Smoothes HP’s Design for Supply Chain”, SCMR, Sep‘05

3. Postponement延误

• Simulation of alternative product build strategies可选的产品制造战略模拟

• Recommendations on where products should be configured (i.e. in or out of region).产品组装成型的地点选择建议

• PSG Displays (’04, ’06)• BPD Design for Direct (’05)

• BPC Common Chassis (’03)

“ Mass Customization at Hewlett-Packard”, Harvard Business Review, ’97

4. Logistics Enhancement物流改进

• Calculators that support packaging design choices and shipment methods支持包装设计选择和装运方式选择

• ROSe (’05)• Plastic Pallets (’05)• Freight vs. IDC calculator (’03)

Examples of SPaM support in DfSCSPaM 在”为供应链设计“上的支持

2023年4月7日 70

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Design for Supply Chain (DfSC) 为供应链设计（ DfSC ）Systematically trade off responsiveness, material, and supply chain costs to maximize profitability系统平衡客户反应速度、物料和供应链成本使利润率最大化

Commonality and Re-Use 统一化 / 重复使用

Make components, modules, interfaces, platforms common now and in future现在和未来用统一的配件、模块、接口和平台

Examples: 15 rack versions become 7, same printer architecture for large format, business, and home photo printers

Postponement延误

Modify product to allow process resequencing and postponed differentiation

Example: generic printer engine from Asia becomes localized DeskJet in Europe.

Variety Control偏差控制

Trade off supply chain costs against sales impacts to determine feature set供应链成本和销售影响之间平衡来决定产品功能 /特点集

Example: all DVD-R, no CD-Readers. 1.2 and 1.4 processors, no 1.3

Tax and Duty Reduction税赋和关税降低

Change build location and transfer price调整制造地点和转移价格

Example: make storage hardware feature soft, give software business unit high transfer price, burn disks in tax haven, air ship to final configuration in region.

Take Back Facilitation 召回协调

Product and packaging changes to reduce reverse supply chain costs产品和包装改进降低召回供应链成本

Example: socket instead of solder high value components, chassis snaps together and apart without special tools.

Logistics Enhancement物流改进

Redesign product and or packaging to improve density factor, size and/or optimize # per pallet/load再造产品和 / 或包装，改进密度因素，大小和或 / 优化每次装运托盘装运量

Example: 10 PCs in bulk pack for corporate customers replaces 10 packed separately

Variety of HP’s Service ProvidersHP服务提供商的差异化

2023年4月7日 71

SPaM

Postponement延误

> 98% fill rate with ~2 WOS FGI at EMEA

LaserJet超过 98％满足率

DfSC Success Examples DfSC （为供应链设计）成功示例

2.0

1.1

2002 2003

45% reduction

Reducing physical size saves >$1/unit in IPG PCC costs

IPG PCC 成本因物理体积减小，每单位降低 1 美金

Logistics enhancement物流改进Variety control 偏差控制

107 modules107 模块

95 options95 个可选项

55 modules55 个模块

49 options49 个可选项

42% less inventory and better availability for bPC;

$25MBPC 库存下降 42％，产品可获

得性提高： 2500万美金

Commonality and Re-Use统一化 /重复使用

Move from ~12 rail kits to 5 at ESS

$32M material cost reduction over product life

3200万美元物料成本下降

> $48M savings in 2004 from ESS Storage

2004 年超过 4800万美金节约

InkJet Suppliesrecycling increased 25%

耗材再循环增加 25％

Tax and Duty Reduction税赋和关税降低 Take Back Facilitation 召回协调

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How does DfSC happen?DfSC 是怎么发生的？• Investigation and analysis to help make decisions that

take the supply chain into account调研和分析帮助决策时可以科学考虑供应链

• This happens in different functions and at different levels.涉及不同职能不同层级：Some examples:示例：− Individual HP and ODM engineers make everyday engineering

decisions and choices每个 HP和ODM 的工程师每天做工程决策和选择

− Development teams make decisions about individual products开发团队做每个产品的决策

− Managers with responsibility for a suite of products look across GBUs for opportunities负责人拥有责任来从GBU层面看产品的市场机会

− Councils make policy decisions that affect multiple GBU’s委员会做出政策决策，影响各GBU 的运营

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DfSC resourcesDfSC 资源• What support is available to support HP DfSC efforts?哪些资源支持 HP DfSC? − Help in using key techniques

帮助使用关键技术• Training & experience stories培训 & 经验

• Guidance, consulting & analysis support (people)指导、咨询 & 分析支持（人员）

− Calculators计算器• Calculators on web pages

网页计算器• Downloadable spreadsheets下载相关计算表单

− Databases数据库• What power cords are best to select选择什么样的…

• Point to point transit time and cost information for analysis support点到点转移时间和成本信息帮助分析

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Sample Product for Analysis产品分析示例CD Read-WritersCD读写器

• Mean demand: = 5,000/week需求均值： =5000/周

• # SKUs: n = 20SKU 数量：n=20

• Demand uncertainty: fe ~60% (CoV)需求不确定性： fe 60%(协方差 )

• Std. dev. demand: = * fe需求标准差： = * fe

• Product cost: c ~ $200/unit产品成本：c $200/ 单位

• Product price: p = $220/unit产品定价：p $220/ 单位

• IDC percent: h = 40% per yearIDC比例：h =40%每年

• Mean lead time: L = 8 weeks周期均值： L=8周

• Std. dev. lead time: s = 0.8 weeks周期标准差： s = 0.8周

• Review period: R = 1 week检查期：R = 1周

• Delivery frequency: f = 1/week交付频率： f = 1/周

• Service level target: SL = 95%目标服务水平 : SL = 95%

Make a series of ‘design for supply chain’ decisions做出一系列 DfSC决策

Goal目标 :

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What’s at stake?效益在何处？Calculate current CD-RW inventory costs计算现状 CD-RW 库存成本How much are we currently spending per WOS?我们现在每个 WOS 成本是多少？

How many WOS do we expect? 我们期望的 WOS 是多少？

52

/WOS$/

$/unit/WOSin cost Inventory

//$

chI WOSunit

单位库存成本：

fCS

RLfekSS

WOS

WOS

2

1

WOS

in WOSstock Cycle

WOS

in WOSstock Safety

周转转库

安全库全

Analysis ApproachPage 2 of 6

5252

equation of Derivation

//$//$

//$

chII

hcI

WOSyearWOSunit

WOSyear

公式

21.

:iferror 10% hasn calculatio This

time.lead ticdeterminis Assumes*

2

1

equations of Derivation

2

2

2*

feRL

s

SSCSI

fCS

RLfekRLkSS

SS

RLkSS

WOSWOSWOS

WOS

unitsWOS

units

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Product Number

SKU ReductionSKU降低

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Product Number

Spread Volume

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Product Number

Consolidate Volume

Universal SKU

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What’s it worth to have one universal SKU?全球用一个 SKU 是否值得？Calculate the benefit of going from 20 SKUs to One计算将 20SKU变为 1 个的效益

1//$/$

1

2

2

1

22

i

1

111

equal are all Assuming

to1 numbered SKUsFor

equations of Derivation

nWOSWOSunitsavingsunit

t

ptn

ipp

itt

iip

i

n

ipooled

ti

n

itt

ii

SKUs

totalindividual

RRSSISS

nn

n

n

nn

SS

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RLnkRLkSS

RLnkRLkSS

nn

n

nfennfe

fe

ni

n

Analysis ApproachPage 4 of 6

1//$/$

1

11

$/

$/unitin savingsstock Safety

nWOSWOSunitsavingsunit

n

RRSSISS

nRR

单位安全库全库存

How much is safety stock reduced by pooling uncertainty to 1 SKU?将不确定性集中到一个 SKU后，安全库存降低多少？

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Cutthroat Product Fan-out

ABA: US English 25%PPMD ABC: Canadian French 5%

ABM: Spanish 3%AKZ: Portugese 0%ABD: German/Eng 9%ABE: Spanish/Eng 4%ABF: French/Eng 5%

CUTTHROAT PDE ABH: Dutch/Eng 2%INTERNAL ABS: Swedish/Eng 1%(C4380A) ABU: Intnl English 9%

ABZ: Italian/Eng 2% AB0: Trad. Chinese 0%105: APDO Single Pack APDO AB2: Simp. Chinese 0%

ARS: International Eng. 1%ABA: US English 13%

BASE PPMD ABC: Canadian French 1%PHILIPS ABM: Spanish 2%DRIVE ABB: German/Eng 2%

ABD: German/Eng 3%ABE: Spanish/Eng 2%ABF: French/Eng 1%

CUTTHROAT ABP: German/Eng 0%EXTERNAL PDE ABQ: French/Eng 0%(C4381A) ABU: Intnl English 3%

ABZ: Italian/Eng 1%ABH: Dutch/Eng 1%ACE: Swedish/Eng 0%ABS: Swedish/Eng 1% AB0: Eng./Trad. Chinese 0%ACQ: Spanish/Eng 0% AB2: Eng./Simp. Chinese 1%105: APDO Single Pack APDO ABG: International Eng. 0%

ACJ: International Eng. 0%ARR: Eng./Simp. Chinese 0%ARS: International Eng. 1%

Note: Percentage of total FY’98 volume

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Actual vs. Rough-Cut Technique实际与初步排除技术对比

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

0 10 20 30 40

Total number of SKUs

Ch

an

ge

in

ID

C s

av

ing

s (

$/u

nit

)

FY'99 SKU

Count

Actual savings

using dem and share by SKU

Upperbound on

savings using rough-cut technique

Upperbound on

cost using rough-cut technique

Actual cost

using dem and share by SKU

Upper bound always occurs when demand variance is identical for all SKUs

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Design for localization and the HP DeskJet本地化和 HP台式打印机的设计our historical printer supply chainHP 原来的打印机供应链

Supplier供应商

Asia亚太

Americas美洲

Europe欧洲

Printers打印机

Italy意大利France法国Germany德国Spain西班牙etc.

Australia澳大利亚Japan 日本Korea韩国Taiwan台湾etc.

Dealers中间商

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Supplier供应商

Dealers中间商

Asia亚太

Dealers中间商

Americas美洲

Europe欧洲

Printers打印机

Supplier供应商

Dealers中间商

Asia亚太

Dealers中间商

Americas美洲

Europe欧洲

Differentiating at the factory工厂差异化 Differentiating at distribution centers

分销中心差异化

The Localization Decision本地化设计

Printers打印机

Italy意大利France法国Germany德国Spain西班牙etc.

Italy意大利France法国Germany德国Spain西班牙etc.

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Weeks of

Supply供给周数

Product Availability产品可获取性

At the Factory在工厂 At

DistributionCenters在分销中心

How does localization shift our curve?本地化如何改变我们的“曲线”？

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Risk Pooling Reduces Stocking Requirements“风险池”降低库存需求

Monthly Orders

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Nov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSep

A AA AB

AQ AU AY

generic

Necessary Safety Stock

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Factory DistributionCenter

Monthly Orders

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Nov Jan

Mar

May Ju

lSep

A AA AB

AQ AU AY

generic

Necessary Safety Stock

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Factory DistributionCenter

月度订单 必要安全库存

工厂 分销中心

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Bulk Pack 滚装

•Greater density of printers打印机更加密集•Better shock protection更好的防震保护

•Half of interior space is empty一半的内部空间浪费•Could not withstand a drop of several inches打印机不能接受几英寸的下落

Today今日

The Past过去

Bulk Shipment vs. Retail Packaging滚装 & 零售包装A “pleasant surprise“一个开心的惊奇

FGI on pallet 托盘