how to get started with conversion attribution

March 4th, 2015

Attributing the Search Assist –

How to Get Started

Nick LindauerForthea Interactive

VP, Operations & Client Service

@forthea | @nlindauer

searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer

#SMX #24C


#SMX #24C

“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.”

~ John Wanamaker


#SMX #24C

Last click is dead

Should PPCers be scared?

NO.


#SMX #24C

Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Google, September 2013

66% of advertisers who use attribution have increased spend in digital

21% of those advertisers increased spend across all digital channels

Digital Spend Increases!


#SMX #24C

Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Google, September 2013


#SMX #24C

“attribution ultimately affects bonuses and the pockets of people involved. You have to deal with the politics first or you won’t get buy-in, you’ll get resistance.”

Analytics Manager, Online Retailer

Prepare for War


#SMX #24C

Attribution is not optimization

Attribution modeling will not solve optimization decisions

Attribution is really explaining what has happened in the past to help you make decisions for the future

Remember


#SMX #24C

Determine if you need attribution (hint, 95% yes!)

No Attribution Problems• 90% conversions come from 1-2 visits• Short Sales cycle – minutes

Attribution Problems• Long Sales cycle - days, weeks, months• Multi-channel retailer• Non-ecommerce• More then 10% of conversions come from 2+ visits

Step 1: Do you have a problem?


#SMX #24C

• Online-Offline• Multi-Device • Multi-Channel• Intra-Channel• Other

How I can improve ROI across all marketing channels?If I spend in outdoor, how will it impact my paid search campaigns?How can I make my search campaigns more effective?Should I continue to buy display ads?

Step 2: What’s the problem?


#SMX #24C

• Math & Data Interpretation• Tools (GA, Visual IQ…)• $ and Time• Buy In• Power to Move• Identify Issues

Step 3: Assemble the Team


#SMX #24C

1. Attribution is not the be all end all answer2. All Attribution models have got “missing touch points”3. Data integration is the key to fixing attribution issues4. Attribution is much more than Google Analytics5. There is no attribution without understanding ZMOT (0 moment of truth)6. Not all touch points are equally valuable – but all touch points may have

value7. Not all conversion paths/channels mix are equally important for attribution8. Focusing on a single channel is not attribution9. Attribution modelling is not a onetime activity10. Complex attribution model = no adoption11. Attribution models are subject to personal biases

Step 4: Set the expectations

Source: OptimizeSmart


#SMX #24C

Define the target• Age-group• Gender• Education• Income• Likings• Ethnicity• Lifestyle• Geo location

Understand the Journey• Desires & Expectations• Level of Use• Common Objections• Decision Process• Buying Triggers

Step 5: Identify the Customer


#SMX #24C

80/20 Rule

Aka the Pareto Principle: roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes

Focus on that 20% and only that 20%

Step 6: Prioritize the Problems


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Hypothesis: We should stop PPC because we rank #1 in organic search (on select non-branded terms)

• Determine previous 6-12 month value of assisted conversions & last click conversion for organic

• Create a custom segment to remove PPC from data & apply• Again, note the assisted conversions & last click conversion

for organic• Determine percentage change between the two• Determine profitability & projected loss (if any)

Step 7: Theorize & Test


#SMX #24C

Is 16% of your sales worth the 5% spend on PPC?

Step 7: Sample

Assisted Conversion Value Direct Conversion Value Total Value

With PPC $350,450.00 $230,832.00 $581,282.00

Without PPC $285,956.00 $200,154.00 $486,110.00

% Change -18% -13% -16%


#SMX #24C

Make recommendations for changesThis is where egos come inTread lightly

Step 8: Recommendations


#SMX #24C

Begin again but with different problems

Step 9: Repeat


#SMX #24C

Challenge: • Client was using last click attribution• Paid search non-brand keywords had low

ROI• They considered cutting spend by more

then 75%

Case Study #1

Results:• Attribution modeling showed that the

keywords assisted many conversions and had good ROI

• Non-brand PPC spend increased 15%, increased revenue and hit ROI goals


#SMX #24C

Challenge• A multi-brand home services company

was unsure of display ad ROI• Last-click said assisted 2% of sales• View-through said 25% of sales

Case Study #2

Results• Attribution modeling showed that display

ads contributed 9% of sales• Further digging results in a new display

plan, increasing spend on select placements


#SMX #24C

Challenge• Client wanted to “go nuclear” on paid

search• Could not justify spending on paid

search since all sales happened offline• Felt “billboards” drove more interactions

Case Study #3

Results: • “Nuclear” test was avoided through

modeling• Client increased spend by 115% in

PPC• Billboards have now been discontinued


#SMX #24C

“We’ve been working on client attribution long enough to realize that a lot of our general assumptions are dead wrong. Every client is different, every product is different. Just because display carried a lot of weight in the last project doesn’t meant that it will in the next one.”

- Google Agency Analytics Manager, focused on CPG

Not one size fits all


#SMX #24C

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