How to Estimate Post-Disaster How to Estimate Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction NeedsRecovery and Reconstruction Needs

Using the UN-ECLAC MethodologyUsing the UN-ECLAC MethodologyFor Assessment of Damage, Losses and NeedsFor Assessment of Damage, Losses and Needs

J. Roberto JovelJ. Roberto Jovel

29Sep08 RJovel 2

ContentsContents

1.1. IntroductionIntroduction

2.2. Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework

3.3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?Why Do We Need an Assessment?

4.4. Scope of AssessmentScope of Assessment

5.5. How Do We Do an Assessment?How Do We Do an Assessment?

6.6. When Should it be Done? When Should it be Done?

7.7. Who Should Do the AssessmentWho Should Do the Assessment

8.8. Information RequirementsInformation Requirements

1. Introduction1. Introduction

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Typical Post-Disaster Typical Post-Disaster Stages and ActivitiesStages and Activities

DISASTERDISASTER

Emergency Emergency StageStage

Recovery Recovery StageStage

Reconstruction Reconstruction StageStage

HumanitarianHumanitarianAssistanceAssistance

Rehabilitation ofRehabilitation ofEssential Services,Essential Services,

LivelihoodsLivelihoodsand Productionand Production

RebuildingRebuildingDestroyed PhysicalDestroyed Physical

AssetsAssets

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Division of LaborDivision of Labor

HumanitarianHumanitarianAssistance &Assistance &

Early RecoveryEarly Recovery

Recovery &Recovery &ReconstructionReconstruction

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Methodologies for Needs Methodologies for Needs AssessmentAssessment

HumanitarianHumanitarianand Early Recoveryand Early Recovery

UN and OtherUN and OtherMethodologiesMethodologies

Recovery andRecovery andReconstructionReconstruction

Damage and LossDamage and LossAssessment MethodologyAssessment Methodology

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Summary of Assessment ProcessSummary of Assessment Process

Damage + LossesDamage + Losses• Sector by SectorSector by Sector• Aggregation of Aggregation of Total EffectsTotal Effects

Impact AssessmentImpact Assessment

• Macro-economicMacro-economic• Personal/HouseholdPersonal/Household

Estimation of NeedsEstimation of Needs

• RecoveryRecovery• ReconstructionReconstruction• Risk Management Risk Management

2. Conceptual Framework2. Conceptual Framework

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Definitions of Disaster EffectsDefinitions of Disaster Effects

DamageDamageTotal or partial destruction Total or partial destruction

of physical assetsof physical assetsOccur during the event Occur during the event

itselfitselfMeasured in physical Measured in physical

units and valued at units and valued at replacement costreplacement cost

LossesLossesChanges in economic Changes in economic

flowsflowsOccur after the natural Occur after the natural

event, and over a event, and over a relatively long time relatively long time periodperiod

Valued at current pricesValued at current prices

Total Effects : Damage + LossesTotal Effects : Damage + Losses

Immediate EffectsImmediate Effects Medium-Term EffectsMedium-Term Effects

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Typical Damage and LossesTypical Damage and Losses

DamageDamageHousing and household Housing and household

goodsgoodsHospital and schools, Hospital and schools,

and contentsand contentsAgriculture lands and Agriculture lands and

irrigation systemsirrigation systemsRoads and bridgesRoads and bridgesPorts and airportsPorts and airportsWater supply systemsWater supply systemsElectrical systemsElectrical systems

LossesLosses

Production losses in Production losses in agriculture, fishery, agriculture, fishery, livestock, industry, livestock, industry, commerce, tourismcommerce, tourism

Higher operational costs Higher operational costs and lower revenues in and lower revenues in electricity, water electricity, water supply and transportsupply and transport

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The Timing of Disaster EffectsThe Timing of Disaster Effects

Time, months

DamageDamage

LosseLossess

5 yrs

Full Full ReconstructioReconstructio

n and n and Economic Economic RecoveryRecovery

3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?

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Objectives of AssessmentObjectives of Assessment

1.1. To obtain a quantitative estimation of the To obtain a quantitative estimation of the value of destruction or value of destruction or damage to assetsdamage to assets and of changes or and of changes or losses in economic losses in economic flowsflows due to the disaster due to the disaster

2.2. To identify the impact of the disaster on To identify the impact of the disaster on the overall functioning or performance of the overall functioning or performance of the economy of the affected country or the economy of the affected country or area, and also on individual persons or area, and also on individual persons or on householdson households

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Objectives of Assessment..Objectives of Assessment..

3.3. To identify the capacity of the State to To identify the capacity of the State to undertake on its own all recovery, undertake on its own all recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reconstruction, and disaster risk management programs and activitiesmanagement programs and activities

4.4. To ascertain whether international To ascertain whether international assistance should be provided, its scope assistance should be provided, its scope and timeframeand timeframe

5.5. To identify specific public sector actions at To identify specific public sector actions at the State or lower levels to be undertaken in the State or lower levels to be undertaken in the short, medium and long term to ensure the short, medium and long term to ensure recovery and reconstructionrecovery and reconstruction

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Objectives of Assessment...Objectives of Assessment...

6.6. To estimate financial, technical and To estimate financial, technical and human resource requirements or human resource requirements or needs to implement the agreed needs to implement the agreed upon programs of recovery, upon programs of recovery, reconstruction and risk reconstruction and risk management, duly broken down management, duly broken down into actions at the Central, State, into actions at the Central, State, Provincial, District or Community Provincial, District or Community levelslevels

4. Scope of Assessment4. Scope of Assessment

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Scope of AssessmentScope of Assessment

The assessment should cover the entire The assessment should cover the entire area affected by the disaster and broken area affected by the disaster and broken down by geo-political divisionsdown by geo-political divisions

All sectors of economic activity that may All sectors of economic activity that may have sustained positive or negative have sustained positive or negative disaster effects must be covereddisaster effects must be covered

List of sectors to be assessed is defined on List of sectors to be assessed is defined on basis of economic activities included in basis of economic activities included in country´s system of national accountscountry´s system of national accounts

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List of Typical SectorsList of Typical Sectors

5. How Do We Do an Assessment?5. How Do We Do an Assessment?

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Process for AssessmentProcess for Assessment

1.1. Sector-by-sector assessment Sector-by-sector assessment 2.2. Aggregation of individual sector Aggregation of individual sector

assessments, ensuring no double accounting assessments, ensuring no double accounting or gapsor gaps

3.3. Analysis of macro-economic impactAnalysis of macro-economic impact– Gross domestic productGross domestic product– External sectorExternal sector– Fiscal sectorFiscal sector

4.4. Analysis of personal/household impactAnalysis of personal/household impact5.5. Estimation of needs for recovery and Estimation of needs for recovery and

reconstructionreconstruction

Typical Results of AssessmentTypical Results of AssessmentSummary of DaLASummary of DaLA

Macro-Economic ImpactMacro-Economic ImpactImpact at Personal LevelImpact at Personal Level

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2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake2006 Yogyakarta EarthquakeSummary of Total EffectsSummary of Total Effects

Sector Sector

and Subsectorand Subsector

Total Effects, Rp BillionTotal Effects, Rp Billion

DamageDamage LossesLosses TotalTotal

HousingHousing 13,91513,915 1,3821,382 15,29615,296

Transport and CommunicationsTransport and Communications 9090 ------ 9090

EnergyEnergy 225225 150150 375375

Water and SanitationWater and Sanitation 8282 44 8686

EducationEducation 1,6831,683 5656 1,7391,739

HealthHealth 1,5691,569 2121 1,5901,590

Culture and ReligionCulture and Religion 654654 ---- 654654

AgricultureAgriculture 6666 640640 705705

TradeTrade 184184 120120 303303

IndustryIndustry 4,0634,063 3,8993,899 7,9627,962

TourismTourism 3636 1818 5454

GovernmentGovernment 137137 ---- 137137

Banking and FinanceBanking and Finance 4848 ---- 4848

EnvironmentEnvironment ---- 110110 110110

TOTALTOTAL 22,75122,751 6,3986,398 29,14929,149

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2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake 2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake Ownership of Total Disaster EffectsOwnership of Total Disaster Effects

An Indication of Post-Disaster EffortsAn Indication of Post-Disaster Efforts

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Breakdown by Sector of Total Disaster Breakdown by Sector of Total Disaster Effects: 2006 Yogyakarta EarthquakeEffects: 2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake

A social and productive disasterA social and productive disaster

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2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake2006 Yogyakarta EarthquakeDamage and Losses by SectorDamage and Losses by Sector

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Geographical Distribution of Geographical Distribution of Disaster Effects in MyanmarDisaster Effects in Myanmar

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Impact of Disaster Losses and Impact of Disaster Losses and Post-Disaster Activities on GDPPost-Disaster Activities on GDP

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

An

nu

al G

DP

Gro

wth

, %

GrowthGrowthGapGap

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Impact of Disaster on Impact of Disaster on Balance of Payments in JamaicaBalance of Payments in Jamaica

20062006

BOPBOP

Estimated LossesEstimated Losses Revised BOPRevised BOP

ModerateModerate SevereSevere ModerateModerate SevereSevere

Goods BalanceGoods Balance - 2,911- 2,911 - 2,953- 2,953 - 2,972- 2,972

Exports (FOB)Exports (FOB) 2,0162,016 8.788.78 12.4312.43 2,0072,007 2,0042,004

Imports (FOB)Imports (FOB) 4,9274,927 33.5033.50 48.4048.40 4,9614,961 4,9754,975

Services BalanceServices Balance 788788 206.39206.39 206.39206.39 582582 582582

IncomeIncome - 663- 663 - 663- 663 - 663- 663

Current Current TransfersTransfers

1,6701,670 66.5266.52 94.2994.29 1,6031,603 1,5761,576

Current Account Current Account BalanceBalance

- 1,116- 1,116 - 1,431- 1,431 - 1,478- 1,478

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Impact of Disaster Impact of Disaster on Fiscal Sectoron Fiscal Sector

20062006

No No disasterdisaster

2006 2006

After After disasterdisaster

Central Government PerformanceCentral Government Performance• Million US$Million US$• As % of GDPAs % of GDP

- 74.274.2- 0.40.4

Decline in revenues due to Decline in revenues due to pandemicpandemic

11.811.8

Increase in expenditures due to Increase in expenditures due to pandemicpandemic

57.257.2

Central Government PerformanceCentral Government Performance• Million US$Million US$• As % of GDPAs % of GDP

- 143.2143.2- 0.70.7

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2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake:2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake:Personal Income Loss by GenderPersonal Income Loss by Gender

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Mo

nth

ly S

ala

rie

s L

os

t

Bantul GunungKidul

Kulon Progo Sleman Yogyakarta Klaten

Male Female

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TemporaTemporaryry Personal Personal Income Decline after Income Decline after Disaster in El SalvadorDisaster in El Salvador

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Damage and Losses per PersonDamage and Losses per Personin Myanmarin Myanmar

Typical Estimation of NeedsTypical Estimation of Needs

RecoveryRecoveryReconstructionReconstruction

Risk ManagementRisk Management

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Use of Sector AnalysisUse of Sector Analysis

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Dis

as

ter

Eff

ec

ts, m

illio

n U

S$

Housing Industry Education andCulture

Health Agriculture Trade Energy

Damage LossesReconstructionReconstructionProgrammeProgramme

Economic Economic Recovery Recovery ProgrammeProgramme

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Economic Recovery Economic Recovery Program ComponentsProgram Components

Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-economic and individual impacteconomic and individual impact– Income generation schemes for most affected Income generation schemes for most affected

population groups, with special reference to those that population groups, with special reference to those that are not credit worthyare not credit worthy

– Temporary shelter provision and housing rehabilitationTemporary shelter provision and housing rehabilitation– Social sector recovery programsSocial sector recovery programs– Provision of soft term financing to re-start production Provision of soft term financing to re-start production

activities in micro, small and medium sized enterprisesactivities in micro, small and medium sized enterprises– Introduction of temporary tax relief measures to assist Introduction of temporary tax relief measures to assist

producers (from micro to large)producers (from micro to large)– Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum

delays of reconstruction start and executiondelays of reconstruction start and execution

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Recovery Needs AssessmentRecovery Needs Assessment

ProductionProductionLossesLosses

RecoveryRecoveryNeedsNeeds

Recovery needs: Recovery needs: ƒ ƒ Production LossesProduction Losses

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Typical Activities for Typical Activities for Economic RecoveryEconomic Recovery

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Reconstruction NeedsReconstruction Needs

DamageDamage

ReconstructionReconstructionStrategyStrategy

Quality/Techno ImprovementQuality/Techno Improvement

Mitigation CostsMitigation Costs

Relocation CostsRelocation Costs

Multi-Annual InflationMulti-Annual Inflation

Reconstruction ProgrammeReconstruction ProgrammeFinancing NeedsFinancing NeedsReconstruction priorities:Reconstruction priorities:- SectorialSectorial- GeographicalGeographical- Population groupsPopulation groups

Financing FormulaFinancing Formula

• Government fundsGovernment funds• Private sector fundsPrivate sector funds• Insurance proceedsInsurance proceeds• International grantsInternational grants• International loansInternational loans

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Typical Activities for Reconstruction Typical Activities for Reconstruction and Disaster Risk Reductionand Disaster Risk Reduction

6. When Should the Assessment Be Done?6. When Should the Assessment Be Done?

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TimeframeTimeframe

Period required for typical assessment: 2 to 4 Period required for typical assessment: 2 to 4 weeks depending on complexity of disaster weeks depending on complexity of disaster and extension of affected areaand extension of affected area

Start after certain conditions have been met:Start after certain conditions have been met:– Availability of government officials to participate Availability of government officials to participate

in assessmentin assessment– Availability of baseline and disaster effects Availability of baseline and disaster effects

informationinformation– Adequate access to and within affected areasAdequate access to and within affected areas

Therefore, damage and loss assessment Therefore, damage and loss assessment should not begin until after the humanitarian should not begin until after the humanitarian stage is over and when the natural stage is over and when the natural phenomena has abatedphenomena has abated

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Typical ScheduleTypical Schedule

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Accuracy vs OpportunityAccuracy vs Opportunity

• Urgent need to produce assessment and Urgent need to produce assessment and obtain financial support for recovery and obtain financial support for recovery and reconstructionreconstruction

• Speed more important than 100% Speed more important than 100% accuracyaccuracy

• Nevertheless, aim for highest possible Nevertheless, aim for highest possible accuracy by combiningaccuracy by combining– Best available professionalsBest available professionals– Best available informationBest available information– Adequate and reliable methodological tool Adequate and reliable methodological tool

for assessmentfor assessment

7. Who Should Do the Assessment7. Who Should Do the Assessment

A Well-Integrated, Multi-Disciplinary Team:A Well-Integrated, Multi-Disciplinary Team:Government-ledGovernment-led

Assisted by UN, IFIs, NGOsAssisted by UN, IFIs, NGOs

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List of SpecialistsList of Specialists

8. Information Requirements8. Information Requirements

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Baseline Data, generalBaseline Data, general

Most recent population censusMost recent population census

Most recent household surveyMost recent household survey

Annual production statisticsAnnual production statistics

Production forecastsProduction forecasts

Annual reports for utilitiesAnnual reports for utilities

Annual economic and social surveysAnnual economic and social surveys

Other economic and financial reportsOther economic and financial reports

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Baseline Data, by SectorBaseline Data, by Sector

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Training on DaLATraining on DaLA

GFDRR is training World Bank Staff on DaLA GFDRR is training World Bank Staff on DaLA procedures since April 2007procedures since April 2007

So far, more than 275 Staff have been trained and some So far, more than 275 Staff have been trained and some of them have already participated in field of them have already participated in field assessmentsassessments

GFDRR is also training core groups of country experts GFDRR is also training core groups of country experts that can undertake such assessments after disastersthat can undertake such assessments after disasters

National training workshops have been done in National training workshops have been done in Indonesia, Philippines, India, Myanmar, as well as in Indonesia, Philippines, India, Myanmar, as well as in Senegal, Madagascar and UgandaSenegal, Madagascar and Uganda

Many more similar events are scheduled for FY09Many more similar events are scheduled for FY09

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rjovel@jovel.orgrjovel@jovel.org