The 6P Rule of Project Management:

Prior Planning Prevents Poor Project Performance

If you fail to plan, you will plan to fail

Anonymous

Project best understood by breaking it down into its partsWork Breakdown Structure (WBS)

powerful tool for doing this (not just a task list)defines the total scope of the projectfundamental to much of project planning & tracking

Start at top, progressively break work down (tree structure) into work packagesRoll up the packages for bottom up estimatingPackages give clear work assignments

Project time management involves processes required to ensure timely completion of a projectProcesses include:

Activity definitionActivity sequencingActivity duration estimatingSchedule developmentSchedule control

Project best understood by breaking it down into its partsWork Breakdown Structure (WBS)

powerful tool for doing this (not just a task list)defines the total scope of the projectfundamental to much of project planning & tracking

Start at top, progressively break work down (tree structure) into work packagesRoll up the packages for bottom up estimatingPackages give clear work assignments

Intranet WBS in Tabular Form1.0 Concept

1.1 Evaluate current systems1.2 Define Requirements

1.2.1 Define user requirements1.2.2 Define content requirements1.2.3 Define system requirements1.2.4 Define server owner requirements

1.3 Define specific functionality1.4 Define risks and risk management approach1.5 Develop project plan1.6 Brief web development team

2.0 Web Site Design3.0 Web Site Development4.0 Roll Out5.0 Support

Intranet WBS and Gantt Chart

Project 98 file

I ntranet WBS & Gantt Chart Organized by PM Groups

Lots of reasons for poor estimatesinexperience, technical problems, changes optimists, low-balling, politics

Bottom-up cost estimatingrollup the WBS packages

Top-down or Parametric estimatingfrom experience to complex models

Which technique is better?ideally use bothearly on don t have WBS so must use top-downaccuracy of top-down depends on availability/quality of historical databuilding complete WBS can be expensive, but guesses can be even more costly

DeliverablesTangible, verifiable work productsReports, presentations, prototypes, etc.

MilestonesSignificant events or achievementsAcceptance of deliverables or phase completionCruxes (proof of concepts)Quality control Keeps team focused

Develop work packages for each of the phases and deliverables defined in the Deliverable Structure Chart (DSC)

The seeds of major software disasters are usually sown in the first three months of commencing the software project. Hasty scheduling,irrational commitments, unprofessional estimating techniques,and carelessness of the project management function are the factors that tend to introduce terminal problems. Once a project blindly lurches forward toward an impossible delivery date, the rest of the disaster will occur almost inevitably.

T. Capers Jones

Lines of Code (LOC)

Function Points

Most traditionally used metric for project sizingMost controversial

Count comments?Declaring variables?Efficient code vs. code bloatLanguage differences

Easier to count afterwards than to estimate

Analysis based on evaluation of data and transactional types:

Internal Logical File (ILF)External Interface File (EIF) External Input (EI)External Output (EO)External Inquiry (EQ)

Value Adjustment Factor based onDegrees of Influence (DI) aka Processing Complexity Adjustment (PCA)General Systems Characteristics (GSC)

Total Adjusted Function Points (TAFP)transformed into development estimatesconverted in equivalent LOC

Backfiring

The Mythical Man-Month Frederick Brooks

1. 0ur techniques of estimation are poorly developed.More seriously, they reflect an unvoiced assumption which is quite untrue i.e., that all will go well.

2. Our estimating techniques fallaciously confuse effort with progress, hiding the assumption that men and months are interchangeable.

The Mythical Man-Month Frederick Brooks

3. Because we are uncertain of our estimates,software managers often lack the courteous stubbornness of Antoines chef

4. Schedule progress is poorly monitored.Techniques proven and routine in other engineering disciplines are considered radical innovations in software engineering

The Mythical Man-Month Frederick Brooks

5. When schedule slippage is recognized, the natural tendency (and traditional) response it to add more manpower. Like dousing a fire with gasoline,this makes matters worse, much worse. More fire requires more gasoline, and thus begins a regenerative cycle which ends in disaster.

Gantt ChartsCritical Path Method (CPM)Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)Time BoxesCritical Chain

(Theory of Constraints)

Base documentsProject charter

start/end dates (tentative), budget Scope statement

what will be done (& not done)

Activity definitionsdevelop detailed WBSplus supporting explanations to understand all work to be done

Review activities & determine dependencies

Mandatory dependencies: inherent in the nature of the work; hard logicDiscretionary: defined by the project team; soft logicExternal: involve relationships between project and external activities

Must Must determine dependencies to use critical path analysis

Created 1800Standard format for displaying project schedules

activities, durations, start/end finish dates displayed in calendar format

Advantagesenforces planningeasy to create & understandpreferred for summary/exec-level information

Symbols include:black diamond: milestonesThick black bars: summary tasksLighter horizontal bars: tasksArrows: dependencies between tasks

Bar ChartsSimplified versionServe similar function

Sample Project Gantt Chart

Sample Tracking Gantt Chart

white diamond: slipped milestone

two bars: planned and actual times

Developed 1957CPM diagram shows activities, durations, start/end dates & sequencesequence in which they must be completedCritical path for project is the series of activities that determines the earliest timeearliest timeby which project can be completedCritical path is longest pathlongest path through network diagram, has least (zero) slack or float

Critical path helps you make schedule trade-offs

Slack or floatSlack or float amount of time activity can be delayed without delaying early start of dependent activities

Simple Example of Determining Critical Pathconsider following network diagramassume all times in days

2 3

4

5

A=2 B=5C=2

D=7

1 6F=2

E=1

start finish

a. How many paths are on this network diagram?

b. How long is each path?

c. Which is the critical path?

d. What is the shortest amount of time needed to complete this project?

Activity-on-Arrow (AOA) Network Diagram

Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)

Activities are represented by boxesArrows show relationships between activitiesMore popular than ADM method as used by PM softwareBetter at showing different types of dependencies

Task Dependency Types

H,I1Write report to managementJ

G5Train usersI

F,G2Write announcement of intranet for corp. newsletter

H

D,E3Move web pages to production environment

G

C,D4Test Web pages and linksF

B1Estimate Web trafficE

B3Set-up ServerD

B4Design Web page layoutsC

A5Define user requirementsB

None2Evaluate current technology platformA

PredecessorEstimated Duration (Days)

DescriptionActivity

Activity on the Node (AON) Network Diagram

17A+B+E+G+I+JPath 5

2+5+1+3+5+1

2+5+3+3+5+1

19*A+B+D+G+I+JPath 4

2+5+3+3+2+1

16A+B+D+G+H+JPath 3

2+5+3+4+2+1

17A+B+D+F+H+JPath 2

2+5+4+4+2+1

18A+B+C+F+H+JPath 1

TotalPathPossible Paths

Longest pathShortest time project can be completed

Zero slack (or float)The amount of time an activity can be delayed before it delays the project

Must be monitored and managed!PM can expedite or crashCan fast track The CP can changeCan have multiple CPs

Techniques for Shortening a Project Schedule

Shortening durations of critical tasks:add more resourceschange their scope

Crashing tasks by obtaining the greatest amount of schedule compression for the least incremental costFast tracking tasks by doing them in parallel or overlapping them

Developed 1959 for Polaris projectSimilar to CPM but addresses uncertainties in task durationsUses probabilistic time estimates optimistic, most likely, pessimistic estimates of activity durations

PERT weighted average formula:optimistic time + 4X most likely time + pessimistic time

6

Example:PERT weighted average =

8 workdays + 4 X 10 workdays + 24 workdays = 12 days

6

where 8 = optimistic time, 10 = most likely time, and 24 = pessimistic time

1.331.5H,IJ

5.5954GI

2.3521F,GH

3.0432D,EG

4.0642C,DF

1.0111BE

3.3632BD

3.8542BC

5.2853AB

2.2421NoneA

Expected Duration(a+4b+c)

6

Pessimistic Estimates

(Days)

Most Likely Estimates

(Days)

Optimistic Estimates

(Days)

PredecessorActivity

30 days 31.6 days

Consider project size, risk and complexityGantt

senior managementsmaller, less complex projects

CPMmedium size/complexity/ risk

PERThigh risk projectsmedium to high complexity

Deals with delivering in short time framesFocuses on prioritizationFacilitator brings stakeholders together to agree on prioritiesI t s customer developer partneringpartnering

winwin--win win

Compromise on scope to achieve early delivery

Addresses challenge of meeting or beating project finish datesApplication of the Theory of Constraints (TOC)Developed by Eliyahu Goldratt in his books The Goal and The Goal and Critical ChainCritical ChainMethod of scheduling that takes limited resources into account when creating project schedule & includes buffers to protect completion dateAssumes resources do not multitask as it often delays task completions & increases total durations

A buffer is additional time to complete a taskCritical chain schedule removes buffers from individual tasks & instead creates

A project buffer, which is additional time added before the project s due dateFeeding buffers, which are addition time added before tasks on the critical path

Simple view:in critical situation, don t try to strengthen all of the links in the chainfocus on the weakest link

Some organizations view as best thing since sliced breadBut does it sound like common sense?

1) Specify the end-item deliverables

2) Subdivide the work, reducing the dollars and complexity with each additional subdivision

3) Stop dividing when the tasks are manageable work packages based on the following:

Skill group(s) involved

Managerial responsibility

Length of time

Value of task

The work packages (tasks or activities) that are defined by the WBS must be:

Manageable

Independent

Integratable

Measurable

The usual mistake PMs make is to lay out too many tasks; subdividing the major achievements into smaller and smaller subtasks until the work breakdown structure (WBS) is a to do list of one-hour chores. It s easy to get caught up in the idea that a project plan should detail everything everybody is going to do on the project. This springs from the screwy logic that a project manager s job is to walk around with a checklist of 17,432 items and tick each item off as people complete them .

The Hampton Group (1996)

1. Charity Auction

1.1 Event Planning

1.2 Item Procurement

1.3 Marketing 1.4. Corporate Sponsorships

WBS level 1

WBS level 2

1.1 Event Planning

1.2 Item Procurement

1.3 Marketing

1. Charity Auction

1.4 Corporate Sponsorships

1.1.1 Hire Auctioneer

1.1.2. Rent space

1.1.3 Arrange for decorations

1.2.1 Silent auction items

1.2.2 Live auction items

1.2.3 Raffle items

1.3.1 Individual ticket sales

1.3.2 Advertising

1.1.4 Print catalog

WBS level 1

WBS level 2

WBS level 3

Completion time of task j

Optimistic Time tjo Pessimistic Time tj

p

Time

Probability density function

Expected duration = Most Likely Time = tm

For each task j, we must make three estimates:

most optimistic time

most pessimistic time

most likely time

tjo

tjp

tjm

Expected duration j = tjo + tj

p + 4tjm

6

Variance of task j = j2 =

tjp - tj

o 2

36

Estimating Task Durations: Painting a RoomTask: Paint 4 rooms, each is approximately 10 x 20 . Use flat paint on walls,

semi-gloss paint on trim and woodwork. Each room has two doors and four windows. You must apply masking tape before painting woodwork around the doors and windows. Preparation consists of washing all walls and woodwork (some sanding and other prep work will be needed). Only one coat of paint is necessary to cover existing paint. All supplies will be provided at the start of the task. Previous times on similar painting jobs are indicated in the table below.

hours min hours min

27 25 31 5238 25 19 1533 12 26 2717 44 30 2726 7 25 2122 1 24 2814 2 32 5830 27 32 128 30 13 4321 13 42 4523 59 22 5727 44 32 1523 15 32 3137 6 27 1517 54 26 1117 13 21 52

What is your estimate of the average time you will need? What is your estimate of the variance?

Task: Consider the painting job that you have just estimated. Now, however, there are explicit incentives for meeting your estimated times. If you finish painting the room before your specified time, you will receive a $10 bonus payment. HOWEVER, if you finish the painting job after your specified time, you will be fined $1000.

Revised estimated time =

Task: Consider the painting job that you have just estimated. Now, however, there are explicit incentives for meeting your estimated times. If you finish painting the room before your specified time, you will receive a $10 bonus payment. If you finish the painting job after your specified time, there is nopenalty.

Revised estimated time =

Project Manager

Client

Subcontractors

Regulating Organizations

Project Team

Functional Managers

Top Management

To the organization and top management Meet budget and resource constraints Engage functional managers

To the project team Provide timely and accurate feedback Keep focus on project goals Manage personnel changes

To the client Communicate in timely and accurate manner Provide information and control on changes/modifications Maintain quality standards

To the subcontractors Provide information on overall project status

What is a project team?A group of people committed to achieve a common set of goals for which they hold themselves mutually accountable

Characteristics of a project teamDiverse backgrounds/skills Able to work together effectively/develop synergy Usually small number of people Have sense of accountability as a unit