how religious will the world be in 2050
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Reports of the death of organized religion have been exaggerated. According to
recent r esearch, the growth of religious populations worldwide is projected to be 23
times larger than the growth of the unreligious between 2010 and 2050.
The report Changing religion, changing economies, which draws on a 2015 global
study published in Demographic Research and its connected Pew Research Center
report, has profound implications for the global economy.
Today, seven of the G8 nations have Christian-majority populations. But by 2050
only one of the leading economies is projected to have a majority Christian
population – the United States. The other mega economies in 2050 are projected to
include a country with a Hindu majority (India), a Muslim majority (Indonesia), and
two with exceptionally high levels of religious diversity (China and Japan).
As religious diversity and religious populations grow, so does their potential impact,
creating new challenges and opportunities for societies, governments and
economies.
The impact of religion is on the rise on a global scale. By the middle of this century,
the number of people affiliated with a religion is expected to grow by 2.3 billion, from
5.8 billion in 2010 to 8.1 billion in 2050. By contrast, the number of people
unaffiliated with any religion (including those who say their religion is “nothing in
particular” as well as self-identifying agnostics and atheists) is projected to increase
by only 0.1 billion, from 1.13 billion in 2010 to 1.23 billion in 2050. In terms of
population shares, this is significantly lower than the peak in the 1970s under
communism when nearly one in five people worldwide were religiously unaffiliated,
GLOBAL REGIONAL INDUSTRY
Economics Role of Faith
How religious will the world be in 2050?
By Brian Grim
Oct 22 2015
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according to the World Religion Database.
The growth of religious populations also has implications for how the world’s wealth
will be spread about. The economic transformations of China and India are common
knowledge. But what is less well known is that the five leading economies of 2050
are projected to represent one of the most religiously diverse groupings in recent
memory.
Below are the main takeaways of global religious and economic change, ordered by
the projected size of religious groups in 2050.
Christianity
The growth of the global Christian population is projected to be about the
same rate as overall global population growth between 2010-2050.
The largest share of the world’s Christians lived in the Americas as of
2010, while the largest share of Christians is expected to be in Sub-
Saharan Africa by 2050.
Economic growth among the global Christian population is expected to
increase, but be significantly less than economic growth in the world as a
whole.
In the years ahead, the global distribution of economic influence associated
with Christian populations is expected to remain largely dominated by the
Americas, with Europe slightly decreasing in influence and Sub-Saharan
Africa and Asia-Pacific regions slightly increasing.
Islam
The number of Muslims in the world is expected to nearly double between
2010 and 2050 and Muslims are expected to lead the world in population
growth compared with other religious groups.
The largest share of the world’s Muslims lived in the Asia-Pacific region as
of 2010 and will continue to live in this region in the decades ahead.
Economic growth among the global Muslim population is expected to
3K+ 160
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significantly outpace global economic growth.
India is expected to have the largest Muslim population of any country in
the world by 2050, surpassing Indonesia.
In the years ahead, slightly more than half of the economic influence
associated with Muslim populations is expected to be in the Asia-Pacific
region, with India’s economic overall growth also helping to add some to
the global economic resources of Muslims.
Religiously Unaffiliated
The growth of the global religiously unaffiliated population is slowing at a
much faster rate than global population growth.
The largest share of the world’s religiously unaffiliated population lived in
the Asia-Pacific region as of 2010 with over half of the entire world’s
unaffiliated people living in China. Population growth of the religious
unaffiliated population in the Americas is expected to be substantially
higher than growth in other regions of the world.
Economic growth among the global religiously unaffiliated population is
expected to be on par with global economic growth in the years ahead.
The global distribution of economic influence associated with religiously
unaffiliated populations is expected to grow in the Asia-Pacific region, with
economic influence decreasing slightly in Europe and the Americas.
Hinduism
The number of Hindus in the world is expected to grow by 400 million
people between 2010 and 2050, but is projected to remain about the same
share of the world’s population in the decades ahead.
The largest share of the world’s Hindus lived in the Asia-Pacific region(notably India) as of 2010 and will continue to live in this region in the
decades ahead.
Economic growth among the global Hindu population is expected to
significantly outpace global economic growth, mostly led by the rising
economy of India.
The vast majority of economic resources available to Hindus lies in India,
but Hindus in the United States and the United Kingdom also contribute
significantly to the global economic resources available to Hindus.
Buddhism
The number of Buddhists in the world is expected to remain at nearly 500
million between 2010 and 2050, but is projected to decrease as a share of
the world’s population.
The largest share of the world’s Buddhists lived in the Asia-Pacific region
(notably China) as of 2010; they are estimated to continue to live in this
region in the decades ahead.
Despite the stagnation of population growth among Buddhists, economic
growth among the global Buddhist population is expected to be on par with
global economic growth, largely due to China’s economic rise.
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China and Japan jointly hold nearly all of the world’s economic resources
available to Buddhists, but this study estimates that Buddhists in the United
States also contribute significantly to the global economic resources
available to Buddhists.
Judaism
The growth of the global Jewish population is slowing more quickly than the
world overall; however, the number of Jews is still anticipated to be about
two million more in 2050 than in 2010 (increasing from about 14 million in2010 to slightly more than 16 million worldwide in 2050).
The largest share of the world’s Jews lived in the Americas (mostly in the
United States) as of 2010, while the largest share of Jews is expected to be
in the Middle East-North Africa region (namely Israel) by 2050.
Economic growth among the global Jewish population is expected to
increase, but be significantly less than economic growth in the world as a
whole.
In the years ahead, the global distribution of economic influence associated
with Jewish populations is expected to slightly decrease in the Americas
with corresponding slight increases among Jewish populations living in the
Middle East- North Africa region.
Other religions*
The number of people belonging to other religions in the world is expected
to grow by about 30 million people between 2010 and 2050, but is
projected to decrease as a share of the world’s population.
The largest share of the world’s other religious populations lived in the
Asia-Pacific region (notably China) as of 2010 and will continue to live in
this region in the decades ahead.
Despite its slow population growth, economic growth among people
belonging to other religions is expected to outpace global economic growth,
largely due to China’s projected economic growth.
China holds about two-thirds of the global economic resources available to
other religions.
* Other religions include religious traditions not covered elsewhere in this report.
Data limitations prevent their individual analysis on a global basis. They are included,
however, to account for all people worldwide, recognizing that the results have
limited information for any one particular group. These religions include folk religions
often identified along ethnic lines and sometimes mixed with local beliefs of other
major religions. Examples of these folk religions include traditional African religions
and Chinese ancestral belief systems. The other religion category also includes
groups like Baha’i, Jainism, Shintoism, Sikhism and Taoism that do not have
sufficient data to have their own category across most country censuses and
surveys.
Author: Brian J. Grim, President, Religious Freedom & Business Foundation
Image: Hindu devotees with earthen oil lamps pray inside a temple during the
Navratri festival in Chandigarh, India. REUTERS/Ajay Verma
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Buddhism Christianity Economic Growth Economics Economics Faith Forum
Global Agenda Councils Hinduism Islam Judaism Religion Role Of Faith
Posted by Brian Grim - 10:45
All opinions express ed are those of the author. The World Economic Forum Blog is an independent and neutral platform
dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.
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