how online business models are driving growth

Avatar 3. How online business models are driving growth - Vision & Facts Peter Warman, MD Newzoo / Gamesindustry.com 4 December 2010, IVDC 2010, Rome (IT)

Assassins Creed Brotherhood

2010 Ubisoft

Against Rome 2004

JoWooD Productions


Avatar 3. How online business models are driving growth Vision & Facts

Rome Total War

2006 Activision


Romance of Rome 2009

Awem Studio

Avatar 3. How online business models are driving growth Vision & Facts Avatar 3.

How online business models are driving growth - Vision & Facts Peter Warman, MD Newzoo / Gamesindustry.com 4 December 2010, IVDC 2010, Rome (IT)


Assassins Creed Brotherhood

2010 Ubisoft

September 2010: “Now celebrating over

100-million paid downloads on mobile! Discover why millions of players around the world have made the TETRIS® game one of the biggest blockbusters in mobile gaming history.”




1. Introduction Facts & vision on 2. Game Popularity 3. Game Spending 4. Conversion

5. Conclusion, News & Tips

On

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How online business models are driving growth - Vision & Facts | Peter Warman | IVDC 2010

1. Introduction


1. Introduction |New Who?


international partners business decisions

consumer market data B2B marketing tools

1. Introduction |New Who?


1. Introduction |Black Book


1. Introduction |Consumer Data

Clients include:


2. Game Popularity


UK Games Market | Popularity of platforms

Consoles incl handheld consoles DS/DSi & PSP

0 5M 15M 10M 20M 25M

MMOs incl F2P & P2P

PC/Mac (boxed) games that are installed from CD/DVD

PC/Mac (digital) direct downloads

Online casual game portals

Social networks e.g. Facebook, MySpace and local networks

Mobile devices mobile phones, iPod Touch & iPad

23% 2009: 10%

41%

36%

43% 2009: 32%

42% 2009: n.a.

48% 2009: 19%

32M 24M

Gamers per Platform absolute and as share (%) of the (online) population*

*Base: total population of 10yrs and up (with internet access)

Conversion Gamers to Spenders Ranking of platforms on ratio spenders/gamers

1. Consoles

2. PC/Mac (boxed)

3. PC/Mac (digital)

4. Online casual

5. MMOs

6. Mobile devices

7. Social networks

78% (2009: 73%)

57%

Gam

ers

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am

es

Sp

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ders

p

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All Gamers and Spenders absolute and share (%) of the (online)

population*

2009: 35%

62% 2009: 55%


Game “platforms”

casual game portals social networks

consoles MMOs

mobile devices PC & Mac


Choice of Genre or Platform | Determined By




consoles MMOs



UK Games Market | Popularity of platforms


0 5M 15M 10M 20M 25M

MMOs incl F2P & P2P






23% 2009: 10%

41%

36%

43% 2009: 32%

42% 2009: n.a.

48% 2009: 19%

32M 24M

Gamers per Platform absolute and as share (%) of the (online) population*



1. Consoles

2. PC/Mac (boxed)

3. PC/Mac (digital)

4. Online casual

5. MMOs

6. Mobile devices

7. Social networks

78% (2009: 73%)

57%

Gam

ers

p

layin

g g

am

es

Sp

en

ders

p

ayin

g t

o p

lay g

am

es


population*

2009: 35%

62% 2009: 55%


Gamer Types | Target groups

8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+

Consoles PC/Mac Game portals

2005

Free Paid Paid



8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+

MMOs Consoles PC/Mac Game portals Mobile Social

2005-2010: new platforms

Free Paid Paid Free Free Paid



8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+


2005-2010: new genres




8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+


2005-2010: new interfaces




8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+


2005-2010: new business models

Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free



8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+ 8-12 13-19 20-34 35-50 50+


Everyone plays games

Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free Paid/Free



Everyone plays games like

Everyone goes to the cinema

Do we call them “cinema-go-ers”?

What about “gamers”?


US Games Market | Popularity of platforms


0 20M 60M 80M 40M 100M 120M

MMOs incl F2P & P2P






24%

38%

34%

53%

41%

36%

56%

54%

160M 115M

75%


population*

Gamers per Platform absolute and share (%) of the (online) population*



1. Consoles

2. PC/Mac (boxed)

3. MMOs

4. PC/Mac (digital)

5. Online casual

6. Mobile devices

7. Social networks

Gam

ers

p

layin

g g

am

es

Sp

en

ders

p

ayin

g t

o p

lay g

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US Games Market | Popularity of platforms


0 20M 60M 80M 40M 100M 120M

MMOs F2P/P2P

PC/Mac (boxed) installed from CD/DVD

PC/Mac (dig.) direct downloads


Social networks e.g. Facebook, MySpace

Mobile devices phones, iPod T. & iPad

24%

38%

34%

53%

41%

36%

56%

54%

160M 115M

75%


population*

Gamers per Platform absolute and share (%) of the (online) population*



1. Consoles

2. PC/Mac (boxed)

3. MMOs

4. PC/Mac (digital)

5. Online casual

6. Mobile devices

7. Social networks

Gam

ers

p

layin

g g

am

es

Sp

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Th

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Om

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A

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latf

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18

%



time place

social need

theme

physical

variables

phsychological

variables

personal

preferences




consoles MMOs




BE

NL

FR

GER

UK

US

0 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 35M 40M 45M

Sony PlayStation Portable (PSP)

Nintendo DS/DSi

Apple iOS (iPhone, iPodTouch, iPad)

Number of people (aged 10yrs and up) playing games on portable platforms


Hardcore casual gaming

RIFT by TrionWorlds (US)


RIFT by TrionWorlds (US)

Hardcore casual gaming


3. Game Spending


11%

9%

38% 7%

11%

17%

7%

PC Games downloads

PC Games boxed

Console games

Mobile games

MMO games

Game portals

Social networks

US | Total Consumer Spend 2010

Total spend

$22,300,000,000 vs. ‘09: -2% Players: 160,000,000 Payers: 115,000,000

$8,5bn vs. ‘09: -30%

$3,8bn vs. ‘09: +34%

$1,6bn vs. ‘09: +66%

$2,5bn vs. ‘09: +60%

$2,0bn vs. ‘09: -27%

$2,5bn vs. ‘09: +28

$1,6bn vs. ‘09: +46%

2010


NL Games Market | Mobile Games Spend 2010

€ 10.000.000

€ 14.500.000

€ 4.500.000

revenues 2009 revenues 2010 delta (2010 - 2009)

€ 4,90

€ 2,45

€ -2,45

2009 2010 2010 - 2009

1.300.000

3.510.000

2.210.000

156.000 491.400 335.400

10% 27% 12% 14%

players2009

players2010

difference2010 - 2009

payers2009

payers2010

difference2010 - 1009


MMO Games | The best is yet to come

STELLAR DAWN by Jagex (UK)


MMO Games | The best is yet to come

TERA by Frogster (GER), BlueHole (S.KOREA)


MMO Games | The best is yet to come RIFT by TrionWorlds (US)


Social Games | The best is yet to come RIFT by TrionWorlds (US)


Social Games | The best is yet to come Angry Birds by Rovio


3. Conversion


4. Conversion | Will people pay?

F2P revenues

54% F2P gamers

9.7M P2P gamers

2.2M Paying F2P

3.8M 40%


All platforms are Free-to-Play (in some way)


consoles MMOs



Business model needs to be part of the game!


And then sell your stuff outside the game…

“Free-to-play” virtual currency going mass market


4. Conclusions, News & Tips


Conclusions

■ The terminology “Gamers” no longer applies ■ Casual-Core segmentation of people no longer applies ■ Choice of game depends on

■ Time of day ■ Place of play ■ Social setting ■ Need to be met (driver/mood) ■ Personal theme preferences

■ All platforms are Free-to-Play platforms ■ Total wallet is flat through recession with major shift to online ■ Business models are part of game development


Tips

■ Have a 99c strategy ■ Gifting rules ■ Mac is huge ■ Retail is back ■ Think all platforms ■ Keep your IP ■ Extend your IP ■ Visit newzoo.com, get the newsletter


News In addition to Newzoo’s existing portfolio of

National Surveys in US, UK, Germany, France, Netherlands and Belgium

Newzoo and GlobalCollect are happy to announce

National Surveys in

Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Spain, China in Q1 & Q2 2011

As well as

………………..


News Italiand spend

€1-3bn on games.

We need to know more.

We are seeking local and international launch clients!

ITALIA!!!!!!


I’ll be back. Until then: [email protected]

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