* This paper is an output of a joint project between the International Rice Research Institute and University of California at Berkeley. The Berkeley team is led by Dr. Alain de Janvery and Dr. Elisabeth Sadoulet. The funding for the study was obtained from the Agricultural Technology Adoption Initiative (ATAI) project and the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). The names of the co-authors will be added later. How does drought-tolerant rice help farmers? Evidence from randomized control trials in eastern IndiaSSD SeminarMarch 13, 2015

Takashi Yamano and others*

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Introduction Drought-tolerant Rice Variety Randomized Control Trial: Study DesignDescriptive AnalysesRice YieldCultivation of Rabi Crop after Kharif seasonEstimation ModelsResultsYield ModelCultivation of Rabi CropsConclusions

Presentation Outline

The Asian Green Revolution has increased rice yields in irrigated areas and reduced poverty (Otsuka, Estudillo, and Sawada, 2013).

But farmers in rain-fed areas still have low yields, and drought affects rice production in wide areas and can cause a severe damage to it.

Climate Change is expected to worsen by increasing days with extremely high temperature during cropping seasons (Tubiello et al., 2007, Lobell et al., 2011).

Exposure to high temperature during rice flowering can greatly reduce pollen viability which leads to yield losses (Matsui et al., 2000).

Introduction (1)

Sahbhagi Dhan is a drought tolerant rice variety developed by researchers at IRRI and its counterparts in India (Dar et al., 2014).

Sahbhagi Dhan is a short duration variety which canavoid high temperature (see next slide) allow farmers to cultivate second crops

The short duration of Sahbhagi Dhan can also allow farmers to cultivate second crops (Rabi crops) after its harvest. This leads to higher annual income and more diversified income source, making farmers more resilient against drought or other negative shocks.

However, no study has evaluated Sahbhagi Dhans performance among farmers.

Introduction (2)

To evaluate the impacts of adopting Sahbhagi Dhan among farmers on

Yield under both normal and drought conditions

Agricultural practices, especially double cropping.

Objectives of the study

The monthly rainfall data are based on daily rainfall data from 40 Block Rainfall Stations where our samples villages are located. MonsoonRabiKharif

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How Sahbhagi Dhan avoids DroughtFloweringDrought

Monsoon(July)NovemberDecemberSahbhagi DhanAverage Duration RiceLong Duration Rice(such as Swarna)

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How Sahbhagi Dhan allows Second CropsRabi CropsVegetables

Monsoon(July)NovemberDecemberSahbhagi Dhan

Long Duration Rice(such as Swarna)

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In 2012, 128 treatment villages and 128 control villages were randomly selected in West Bengal and Odisha, eastern India. In all villages, 5 farmers were selected randomly.

Sample farmers in the treatment villages received 5 kgs of Sahbhagi Dhan seeds before Kharif 2012.

In 2013, we expanded the study areas by (1) taking 79 villages from the 2012 samples and (2) added 252 villages across six districts in West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand.

In total, we have 331 villages, 1,050 treatment and 1,050 control farmers.

Randomized Control Trial of Sahbhagi Dhan

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Timing of interventions and surveys2012201320142011

Ag. SeasonRCTHousehold Survey

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By selecting treatment farmers randomly, we should be able to control for unobserved household characteristics. But the treatment households can still choose plots.

Thus, unobserved plot characteristics may be correlated with independent variables in regression models.

Therefore, we estimate the plot-level fixed effects models:Estimation Models

In this paper we find: Drought has a large negative impact on rice yield,

The average yield of Sahbhagi Dhan is lower than that of other rice varieties under both normal and drought conditions. Reasons for the low yields need to be identified.

The performance of Sahbhagi Dhan needs to be continued.

Shabhagi Dhan allows farmers to cultivate second crops. Thus, we recommend that Sahbhagi Dhan to be promoted in areas where the potential for double-cropping is under-exploited.

Conclusion

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