How do we prepare students for a world we cannot imagine?

Dylan Wiliam

Three long-term trends2

Changes in: The world of work The abilities of children The quality of teachers

How we should respond

Non-economic benefits of education3

More educated students live longer are healthier have less disability towards the end of their lives are less likely to be teenage parents are less likely to be incarcerated are less likely to commit suicide

Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Education (www.learningbenefits.net)

4

Raising achievement matters for society too

Increased economic growth: Net present value to the U.S. of a 25-point increase on

PISA: $40 trillion (U.S. national debt: $13 trillion) Net present value to the U.S. of getting all students

to 400 on PISA: $70 trillion

Changes in skills needed in the workplace

Skill category Percentage change 1969-1999

Complex communication +14%Expert thinking/problem solving +8%Routine manual –3%Non-routine manual –5%Routine cognitive –8%

Autor, Levy & Murnane (2003)

Real-terms changes in salary: 1978 to 2005

Education level Change in salaryPostgraduate qualification +28%BA/BSc +19%Some college 0%High school diploma 0%High school dropout -16%

Economic Policy Institute (2010)

Off-shoring and automation

Off-shoreable Not off-shoreable

SkilledRadiographerSecurity analystTax accountant

Surgeon (?)BricklayerHairdresser

UnskilledFood packagerData entry clerkCall centre operator

Grocery store clerkReceptionistRetail salesperson

7

How flat is the world?

A. Physical mail:B. Telephone minutes:C. Internet traffic:D. First generation immigrants:E. University students:F. People, ever in their livesG. Goods and services:

Percentage crossing national boundaries:1. 1%2. 5%3. 10%4. 20%5. 50%

Mostly round; some flat bits (Ghemawat, 2011)

Percentage crossing national boundaries Physical mail: 1 Telephone minutes: 2 Internet traffic: 17 First generation immigrants: 3 University students: 2 People, ever in their lives: 10 Goods and services: 10

There is only one 21st century skill

So the model that says learn while you’re at school, while you’re young, the skills that you will apply during your lifetime is no longer tenable. The skills that you can learn when you’re at school will not be applicable. They will be obsolete by the time you get into the workplace and need them, except for one skill. The one really competitive skill is the skill of being able to learn. It is the skill of being able not to give the right answer to questions about what you were taught in school, but to make the right response to situations that are outside the scope of what you were taught in school. We need to produce people who know how to act when they’re faced with situations for which they were not specifically prepared. (Papert, 1998)

10

In place of achievement gaps11

An alternative aspiration: All students proficient Many students excellent All sub-groups of students properly represented in the

excellent

Massive gains in US IQ over time

WISC subtest IQ gains from 1947 to 2001 (Percentile ranks)

Information 6Arithmetic 6Vocabulary 12Comprehension 27Picture completion 28Block design 36Object assembly 38Coding 38Picture arrangement 42Similarities 44

Flynn (2007)

What kinds of schools do we need?

School model Ethos Key processTalent refineries School must provide

opportunities for students to show what they can do

Ensuring good teaching and syllabus coverage

Talent incubators

All students students can learn, but not all students can achieve at high levels

Drawing out what is within the student

Talent factories All students can achieve at high levels

Whatever it takes

Where’s the solution?14

School organization School structure Curriculum reform Technology Workforce reforms

15

We need to focus on classrooms, not schools

In the USA, variability at the classroom level is at least four times that at school level. As long as you go to school, it doesn’t matter very

much which school you go to. But it matters very much which classrooms you are in.

It’s not class size. It’s not the between-class grouping strategy. It’s not the within-class grouping strategy.

And most of all on teachers16

Take a group of 50 teachers: Students taught by the most effective teacher in that group

of 50 teachers learn in six months what those taught by the average teacher learn in a year.

Students taught by the least effective teacher in that group of 50 teachers will take two years to achieve the same learning

(Hanushek & Rivkin, 2006) And furthermore:

In the classrooms of the most effective teachers, students from disadvantaged backgrounds learn at the same rate as those from advantaged backgrounds

(Hamre & Pianta, 2005).

The value of teachers17

According to Chetty et al. (2011) being taught by a good teacher for just one year increases lifetime earnings by $50,000 (NPV: $9,000)

A good teacher contributes around $450,000 to the US economy every single year (Hanushek, 2011)

Long-term trends in the abilities of teachers18

1941-45 1946-49 1951-53 1957-59 1960-62 1963-640%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%White male professionals Female professionalsWhite male teachers Female teachers

Prop

ortio

n w

ith IQ

ove

r 113

Bacolod (2007)

19

Replace existing teachers with better ones?

De-select (i.e., fire) ineffective teachers? Replace least effective 10% with average teachers

2 points on PISA (right away, if it can be done) Raising the bar for entry into the profession?

Require teachers to have masters degrees 0 points on PISA (ever)

Exclude the lowest performing 30% from getting in 5 points on PISA (in 30 years time)

So we have to help the teachers we have improve The “love the one you’re with” strategy

How do we speed up teacher improvement?20

Merit pay for effective teachers? Can’t be done fairly, and doesn’t work

Create a culture of continuous improvement Responsibilities of teachers

To continue to improve classroom skill for the whole career To focus the improvement on ideas supported by evidence

Responsibilities of leaders Create the expectation for continuous improvement Keep the focus on what is likely to improve achievement Provide support Encourage risk taking

And what does the research show we need to do?

Intervention Extra months of learning per year

Cost/classroom/year

Class-size reduction (by 30%) 4 $30k

Increase teacher content knowledge from weak to strong.

2 ?

Formative assessment/Assessment for learning 8 $3k

21

Approaches to formative assessment

Improve team-work and systems Professional learning communities

Regular meetings focused on data 16 points on PISA (in two to three years)

Improve classroom practice Teacher learning communities

Investing in high-quality PD for teachers 30 points on PISA (in two to three years)

22