horse racing - betfair

Betfair King – No Risk Betting

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION 2

SO WHAT AFFECTS THE PRICE? 4

PREDICTING THE PRICE SWINGS 5

THE TRADER PUNTER 7

THE TWO BASIC TYPES OF TRADES 8

The Safe Stake Trade 8

The Win-Win Trade 10

CALCULATING YOU POSITION 13

WORKED EXAMPLES 15

Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 1 15 Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 2 18 Golf Example 1 – A Win-Win Trade 21 Golf Example 2 – Another Win-Win Trade 23

LOOK AND LISTEN, ALWAYS! 26

GOOD LUCK, NOT THAT YOU NEED IT ANY MORE. 27

FURTHER SAMPLE TESTS 28

Test 1 28 Test 2 29

TEST ANSWERS 30

Answer 1 30 Answer 2 30


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Introduction

Welcome to the information that will change how you view betting forever.

This is the key to the only form of risk free gambling I know. Yes this is truly

no risk investment, zero risk, your stake is 100% protected!

You don’t even need to study any form. You don’t need to know one end of a

horse from the other. All you need is to study the information I will give you

here, a small betting bank and a betting exchange account. You can then

create bets where you simply cannot lose.

This information really could change your life! It is your key to years of tax-

free extra income.

If you were like me you have dabbled with betting and laying on the betting

exchanges. The one thing that always fascinated me was how the price

constantly changed. And the one thing that really annoyed me was backing a

horse at say 2.5 only for it’s price to drift out to 3.1 minutes later. Or the

opposite, laying a horse at 3.2 only for its price to shorten to 2.9 moments

later. If only there was a way to know with 100% certainty which way the

price was going to move.

If I could know which way a price was going to go then I could trade at these

changing prices making consistent profits making risk free bets.

Well there is a way!

And it’s not some complex mathematical formulas; it’s simple supply and

demand. Once I found out how to do this, I couldn’t believe how easy it was.

It simply blew my mind. I couldn’t sleep the night after discovering it the

possibilities are endless.

All of this is only now becoming possible due to the introduction of the betting

exchanges. Betting exchanges have revolutionised the way people gamble.

Yet most people are still unaware of the opportunities available to them. At


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last you can bet on a horse, team or person to lose. We have now returned to

the most simplistic form of betting, 2 people with different opinions betting

against each other.

This technique can be used on any market on the betting exchanges, horses,

football, golf, tennis, snooker, rugby, big brother, whatever! The principle is

exactly the same.

So what’s the catch? There is none. This is not a scam. It’s 100% legal.

100% Tax Free. 100% Risk Free.

All it takes is for you to read this course and a small amount of your time. You

will be well on your way to making consistent extra income trading on the

exchanges.


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So what affects the price?

As punters place backs and lays on the betting exchanges, the amount of

money and price they want or are offering is displayed on the exchanges

trading window. As bets are placed and matched at higher and lower odds,

this is what causes the price to rise or fall. What makes the price rise and fall

is the money. And if you can see where the money is (and you can) you can

determine what way the price will go and therefore how to trade to make a

profit.

The amounts below each of the prices represent bets waiting to be matched

my other traders.

To explain things in two sentences.

If the amount on the Back side is much larger than the amount on the

lay side, people want to Lay the horse, so the price will drift.

If the amount on the Lay side is much larger then than the amount on

the Back side, people want to back the horse, so the price will shorten.

Read the above again a few times to ensure you have it. This is the key. It’s

simple supply and demand.

Take some time. Get a cup of coffee or a beer and just sit and watch the

markets on Betfair or Betdaq. You will be amazed at how this works 99% of

the time and how easy it is to spot.

Have you had that “Eureka” feeling yet?


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Predicting The Price Swings

Before you attempt do any trading, the most important thing to study on the

betting exchanges is the fluctuating price on whatever market you are going to

trade on. The ability to predict these price movements is quite simply a licence

to print money for the patient trader. This is because you can generate

consistent income by trading on fluctuating prices on horses prior to a race. So

the ability to know whether the price on a particular horse is likely to lengthen or

shorten is, quite literally, priceless. It is not rocket science by any means; it is

simply supply and demand.

As backers and layers put up their respective bets or lays, their money shows

up on screen alongside the price they wish to back or lay a horse, and that price

rises and falls as more money is placed and matched at higher or lower odds.

You can see all the money waiting to be matched on a horse by clicking on that

horses name on the betting exchange.


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This screen shows a wealth of information for the Trader. A graph showing the

price movements over time and how much money is already matched at each

price and more importantly how much money is waiting to be Laid or Backed at

each price.

Remember, this is supply and demand; all the money you see displayed beneath

the decimal prices represents bets waiting to be matched by other punters. If a

proportionally larger amount of money is waiting to be matched in the back

section of the screen, that means people are laying the horse because they think

it will lose. So all these layers are effectively going to force the price to drift - so this

would be a good time to Lay.

If a proportionally larger amount of money is waiting to be matched in the Lay

section of the on-screen display, that means people want to bet on the horse

because they think it will win. So all these backers are going to cause the price

to shorten - so this would be a good time to Back.

This takes a bit of getting used to. What you now need to do is spend some

time staring at the watching numbers go up and down and hopefully predicting

which way the price will go. Sit down and try it. Practice makes perfect.


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The Trader Punter

So how do we create this wonderful thing, the risk-free bet? This is done by simply

taking advantage of fluctuating prices. This is exactly the same as how the

stock exchange works. The Dictionary defines a Punter as 'a person who

gambles or lays a bet' - you will be doing both. You will be trading at these

fluctuating prices within certain periods of time on an event in order to make

risk-free profits.

Lets take a very simple, if extreme example:

Let's say there a horse Black Beauty, an outsider who is trading on Betfair at

25/1 (26.0) in the morning. You’re watching AtTheRaces or reading the

RacingPost and you see he is napped by a couple of Tipsters

So let's say you put €100 on him to win at that price, thinking the price would

drop. At this point you would see a return of €3400 if Black Beauty came first -

but you would lose €100 if he did not.

A couple of hours later Black Beauty has shortened to a backing price of 11.0, and

let's say his best laying price is offered at 12.0. You could then trade your position

in other to give you a bet where your stake is 100% Secure. The gold at the end

of the rainbow, “A No Risk Bet”. There are a couple of different choices you now

have. You can make what I call The Safe Stake Trade OR The Win-Win Trade

and I’ll know explain these now.


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The Two Basic Types of Trades

The Safe Stake Trade

Right, you are know no longer the Mug Punter you are interested purely in

safe bets or profitable trades. Exactly how the big bookmakers operate. The

golden rule is simple: protect your stake. So we backed Black Beauty on the

exchanges for €100 at a price of 26.0. Now we see that he's being offered a lay

price of 12.0, so we take that price and lay him for €100. Now our stake is safe.

Basically what we have here is a free €100 bet at 14.0.

But laying comes at a price, and that must be factored into our calculations. If

you lay a horse, you don't 'pay' money up front. Rather, you accept the

backer's stake, and you need to have sufficient funds in your account to cover

your bet. We laid Black Beauty for our requested stake of €100, which means

we will get €100 from a matched backer of this horse if it loses, but if it wins we

will pay €1200 - €100 of which is the backer's stake returned, with the

remaining €1100 being our own liability. But remember, we have backed Black

Beauty at longer odds, and so this is a ‘Safe Stake Trade’ which will result in

one of the following:

Black Beauty WINS BACK: €100 at 26.0 returns €2600 minus €100 stake = €2500 profit

LAY: €100 at 12.0 means you pay €1200: €100 backer's stake, €1100 liability

TOTAL: €2500 minus €1100 = €1400 profit.

Black Beauty LOSES BACK: €100 - you lose this €100 stake

LAY: €100 - you collect the backer's stake of €100

TOTAL: €100 stake lost, €100 returned from lay = €0. Break-even.

However, with the example above - even after that impressive drop in price: 26.0

down to 11.0 — the horse has a greater chance of losing than winning

(90.91% chance of losing at the percentage calculation on the shorter price).

It's not impossible, just unlikely that it will win. This is why the 'Safe Stake Trade'


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should normally be reserved for favourites or more fancied horses that do

stand a greater winning chance.

I must now say a few words about commission. Betting exchanges make their

money by charging a commission on customers' winnings. This generally ranges

from 2% to 5%. This commission, however, is charged on net winnings per

event. So even though we technically won €100 through laying Black Beauty,

commission would not be charged by an exchange deducting on net winnings,

since we also lost €100 through backing Black Beauty - net winnings zero,

deductions zero. So the 'Safe Stake Trade' is just that: Safe. If you win, you win; if

you lose, you don't lose; and 'Safe Stake Trades' can and do pay off when

applied in the right circumstances.

But if you want to win when you win, and win when you lose, then you can try

the other type of trade, the ‘Win-Win Trade’.


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The Win-Win Trade

The above example of Black Beauty's improving price is the perfect opportunity

for a Win-Win Trade’ which can take two forms. A Win-Win Trade’ simply

means you will make money whatever the outcome of the event, that really is

the Pot of Gold.

Here are the two scenarios with Black Beauty:

In the first option, we back him for €100 at 26.0.

We then lay him for €120 at 12.0.


LAY: €120 at 12.0 you pay out €1440: €120 backer's stake, liability €1320


Black Beauty LOSES BACK: €100, so you lose this €100 stake

LAY: €120, so you collect this €120 backer's stake

TOTAL: €100 stake lost, €120 returned from lay = €20 profit.

Your first reaction to the above might be something like,’ After all that I end up

with just €20? And I should be happy about it?' Well, yes you should be.

Remember your €20 net winnings - minus the commission - would be risk free.

So you didn't really put any money on the horse as you protected your stake,

and that's an important part of trading - you have to see beyond the stake,

whether it's the amount you back or lay, and you need to focus purely on the

prices and the amount you stand to make from your trades. In this case, we

couldn't lose. As the saying goes it’s the small drip that fills the buckets. If you could

make 5 - 10 of these trades each day, that’s €100 - €200 profit a day. With no risk.

That’s about €30,000 to €60,000 a year even taking holidays. That’s probably as much

or more than your earning in a job.


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Black Beauty's price shift doesn't happen frequently enough, though it does

happen - and quite often you will hear references to horses being 'positive on the

exchanges' with, in many cases, dramatic improvements in price. But you

don't need such dramatic price shifts in order to create successful trades, and I

will give examples later of the more common opportunities that present

themselves every day. This is the discerning trader's mainstay, and by executing

safe stake or win-win trades in the right circumstances - adopting exactly the

same principles as those described with Black Beauty - you will soon see how

achievable a healthy profit can be.

The second kind of ‘Win-Win’ trade takes the form of an extra lay. Here, we

would back Black Beauty for €100 at 26.0. Then we would lay him for €100 at 12.0.

So now we have a 'Safe Stake Trade’. In order to make it a profitable one

whatever the outcome, we need to lay him again.

Remember what will happen if he is successful:

Black Beauty WINS BACK: €100 at 26.0 returns €2600 minus €100 stake, €2500 profit

LAY: €100 at 12.0 means you pay €1200: €100 backer's stake, liability €1100


So €1400 is the potential profit from a win. But also remember this horse is more

likely to lose. So unless we are focusing on safe ‘stake trades’ with favourites

that do stand a pretty good chance of winning the race, always assume that the

horse will lose - therefore, create a trade that will maximise your profits on the

losing side. Let's try not to be lured by that impressive €1400, and instead deal

with the probable reality of this particular horse losing. This is where our 'extra

lay' comes in.

If we then lay Black Beauty for €80 at 12.0 we are still going to be in great shape

whatever happens in the race.


LAY: €100 at 12.0 means you pay €1200: €100 backer's stake, liability €1100

SUB TOTAL: €2500 minus €1100 = €1400 profit


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EXTRA LAY: €100 at 12.0 means you pay €1200 minus €100 backer's stake =

€1100 liability

GRAND TOTAL: €1400 minus €1100 = €300 profit.

Black Beauty LOSES BACK: €100, so you lose this €100 stake

LAY1: €100, the horse lost so you win the backer's €100 stake

LAY2: €100, the horse lost so you win the backer's €100 stake

GRAND TOTAL: €100 profit.

With the extra lay, our ‘Win-Win Trade’ means €300 if the horse wins, €100 if the

horse loses. This is now a true win-win situation. Your money is safe and you

can watch the race without having to worry about the result, expecting to win

€100 and being surprised and thrilled if you win €300.


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Calculating You Position

The ability to calculate your winning and losing positions against the changing

prices on the exchanges forms a very important part of trading. The more you

do it, the easier it becomes. Betfair provides a number of settings to assist the

trader. Particularly useful is to show you future position if the bet you are in the

process of making was matched. This allows you to adjust you stake to create

the best resulting trade before actually placing the bet.

Oddschecker.com provide a handy hedging tool to calculate how much to Lay

on a horse you have previous backed which has now shortened in price in

order to guarantee a profit win or lose. You can get this at

http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/hedging_calculator.html

I also provide a Back and Lay Calculator where you can calculate your

amounts to Bet or Lay to trade to a profitable position see screenshot below

This is 100% Free to purchasers of this book and can be downloaded at

http://www.betfairking.com/without_fl/calc.htm


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The majority of the time you will be dealing with smaller price differentials than

those created by Black Beauty, but the principles are always the same: protect

your stake; maximise profits. By trading with large stakes - that are backed and

laid to offset the risk - and acting swiftly on fluctuating prices, you can capitalise

on trades that emerge for practically every race meeting. You only need a small

price differential to generate profit, and for the most part you will be dealing with

small incremental increases or decreases in a horse's price, looking to

accumulate moderate and steady profits.

I believe a combination of ‘Safe Stake Trades’ and 'Win-Win Trades’ is the

best way to make money on the exchanges without incurring the risk associated

with traditional bets. You could easily set a target of €100 a day doing this.


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Worked Examples

Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 1 Looking at the first screenshot we have the 2.20 a Perth where we have a strong short price favourite in Decisive, currently available to back at 2.02. However I know that this price is going to drift. I know this because as we have already said, looking at the screen I can see substantially more money on the back side than on the lay side. To be exact €4306 on the Back side & €1898 on the Lay side. So knowing that this price will drift I decide to Lay Decisive, getting €200 laid at 2.04.

Now lets look at the next screenshot about 20 seconds later. The back price is now 2.08. I could now make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Decisive at 2.08. However I know it will drift further so I wait.


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Now lets look at the final screenshot. The back price is now 2.16. I now make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Decisive for 200 at 2.16.

By doing this I have made my stake 100% safe. If Decisive does lose I break even. However if Decisive wins I make €24. As it happens Decisive actually


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trotted up by 20 Lengths, the result never in doubt. Check the result 22nd September, 2.20 at Perth. So how did that work? If Decisive WINS BACK: €200 at 2.16 returns €432 minus €200 stake = €232 profit

LAY: €200 at 2.04 means you pay €408 - €200 backer's stake, €208 your liability

TOTAL: €232 minus €208 = €24.

If Decisive LOSES

BACK: €200 - you lose this €200 stake

LAY: €200 - you collect the backer's stake of €200

TOTAL: €200 stake lost, €200 returned from lay = €0. Break-even.

Now perhaps your saying ‘After all that I end up with just €24? Well again yes

and you should be bloody delighted about it. Remember your €24 profit - minus

the commission - was risk free. So you didn't really put any money on the

horse as you protected your stake, you basically had a free €200 bet at 0.12.


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Horse Racing - Safe Stake Trade Example 2 Looking at the first screenshot we have the 4.40 at Fontwell where we have a reasonable open Handicap Chase. The horse that has caught my attention is Celtic Star, currently available to back at 5.9, Lay at 6.0 However for several reasons I know that this price is going to drift. I know this because as we have already said looking at the screen I can see more money on the Back side than on the Lay side. To be exact €733 on the Back side & €506 on the Lay side. Now this does not seem much but the amount available at back at 5.9 is €227 and the amount available to lay is only €6, a large difference, so this is enough to grab my attention. So knowing that this price will drift I decide to Lay Celtic Star, getting €100 laid at 6.0.

Now lets look at the next screenshot about 20 seconds later. The back price is now 6.6. I could know make a Safe Stake Trade by backing Celtic Star at 6.6. However look at the difference now. €2711 on the Back side & €506 on the Lay side, a substantial difference. Therefore I now know it will definitely drift further so I wait.


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Now lets look at the final screenshot. The back price is now 7.2. I now make a Win-Win Trade by backing Celtic Star for 100 at 7.2.


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By doing this I have firstly made my stake 100% safe. But also traded to a situation where I have made €20 whether Celtic Star wins or loses. As it happens Celtic Star ran poorly and trailed in 5th. However we didn’t care as we had made our €20 profit already. Check the result 22nd September, 4.40 at Fontwell. So how did that work?

Celtic Star WINS BACK: €100 at 7.2 returns €720 minus €100 stake = €620 profit

LAY: €120 at 6.0 means you pay out €720 - €120 backer's stake, liability €600

TOTAL: €620 minus €600 - €20 profit.

Celtic Star LOSES BACK: €100, so you lose this €100 stake

LAY: €120, so you collect this €120 backer's stake

TOTAL: €100 stake lost, €120 returned from lay = €20 profit.


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Golf Example 1 – A Win-Win Trade The same principles work for any sport. Match-Play golf is a great trading medium. Looking at the first screenshot we have a 4 Ball Match Up from the Seve Trophy.

There is a lot of money available on Howell/Casey to back at 1.8 just before Tee-Off, so we have 200 at 1.8. No look at the next screenshot after the first hole. Which by the way Howell/Casey won putting them 1 Up in the match.


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Now we can lay Howell/Casey at 1.6, 0.2 less that what we backed them at. We could lay them for 200 at 1.6. This would mean we have completely protected our stake. If Howell/Casey end up losing we break even. If they end up winning we make €40. Basically we have a free €200 at 0.2. A Risk Free Bet. Or we could lay them for 225 at 1.6. This would mean we win €25 regardless of the result. If they win we make €25 if the lose we make €25. Let me explain how. Howell/Casey WIN BACK: €200 at 1.8 returns €360 minus €200 stake = €160 profit

LAY: €225 at 1.6 means you pay out €360 - €225 backer's stake, liability €135


Howell/Casey LOSES BACK: €200, so you lose this €200 stake

LAY: €225, so you collect this €225backer's stake

TOTAL: €200 stake lost, €225 returned from lay = €25 profit. Looks Amazing?….. It Is! Looks Simple?….. It Is!


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Golf Example 2 – Another Win-Win Trade Looking at the first screenshot we have another 4 Ball Match Up from the Seve Trophy.

There is a lot of money available on McGinley/Harrington to back at 1.66 just before Tee-Off, so we have 300 at 1.66.


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Now look at the next screenshot after the second hole. Which by the way McGinley/Harrington won putting them 2 Up in the match.

Now we can lay McGinley/Harrington at 1.3, 0.36 less that what we backed them at. We could lay them for 300 at 1.3. This would mean we have completely protected our stake. If McGinley/Harrington end up losing we break even. If they end up winning we make €108. Basically we have a free €300 at 0.36. A Risk Free Bet. Or we could lay them for 383.08 at 1.3. This would mean we win €83.08 regardless of the result. If they win we make €83.08 if the lose we make €83.08. Let me explain how. McGinley/Harrington WIN BACK: €300 at 1.66 returns €498 minus €300 stake = €198 profit

LAY: €383.08 at 1.3 means you pay out €498 - €383.08 backer's stake, total

liability of €114.92

TOTAL: €198 minus €114.92 = €83.08 profit.

McGinley/Harrington LOSES BACK: €300, so you lose this €300 stake

LAY: €383.08, so you collect this €383.08 backer's stake

TOTAL: €300 stake lost, €383.08 returned from lay = €83.08 profit. Looks Amazing?….. It Is!


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Looks Simple?….. It Is! In this case McGinley/Harrington threw away this match and lost by a hole.

But we didn't care! Because we had traded to a Win-Win situation the result

no longer mattered to us. We made €83.03 either way.

The difference with both of the Golf Bets is that with my initial Back I simple took

a stand. I fancy both pairings to get off to a good start so to I Backed them even

though the amount of money suggested they would drift further. However the

reason I did this was that both Matches were just about to start. When an event

starts on Betfair the market turns in play and all of the money waiting to be

matched is cancelled. Therefore I knew that these were the best prices I was

going to get. Events like Golf, Tennis, Rugby provide great opportunities for

Trading “In-Running”, where you can make many small trades as the event is

happening. But that’s a whole other topic. Perhaps with an additional chapter

to follow.


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Look And Listen, always!

The sharp trader will always be looking and listening for clues that might lead to

a shift in price. A huge amount of information can be got from TV coverage,

such as Attheraces, The Racing Channel, BBC or CH4. For example, if you are

listening to an interview on AtTheRaces in the morning and a jockey identifies

another of his mounts as his best ride of the day, this may be opportunity to trade

on this or one of his other mounts.

If the hot favourite sheds its jockey on the way up to the starting stalls and bolts a

mile up the course before being caught, this will likely have a negative effect on

its price - so if you see it happen, you can anticipate this and contemplate a

quick trade.

Or perhaps you are watching BBC and you see that Frankie Dettori is just about

to score a double, and the next race is one of his favoured mounts of the day -

this would be a good time to back his horse in the third race, because the

whole world and their mum will, most likely, be putting more money on him for

that next race.

Or you might hear that there has been 15 millimetres of rain overnight and this

won’t suit the big race favourites - if you are quick, you can get you lay in and

then back it as the price lengthens.

A great site to see current prices across all the bookmakers is

www.oddschecker.com.


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Here you can also see what horses are drifting and what horses are

shortening. Quite often you can also see a situation where a bookmakers

price is out of line to the rest of the market and even where a bookie price is

bigger than the Betfair price. This is a great situation to back with the bookie

and then lay with Betfair, locking in a Safe Stake Trade.

Good Luck, not that you need it any more.

Often people say to me good luck. I once saw some research that showed

that apparently lucky people were actually people who had put themselves in

a situation to be lucky by their preparation.

I believe that people who succeed in gambling as in all walks of life are people

who are willing to learn and put in the preparation to make their own luck.

Hopefully you now have the information to take the luck element out of your

gambling and are prepared to make consistent profit.


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Further Sample Tests

Lets take a look at some further examples and see can you spot the potential

trading opportunities.

Test 1 Look the oddschecker prices for the QE2 stakes, the look at the Betfair

market at the same time and see if you can spot a trading possibility.


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Test 2

Look at the Betfair Screenshot below and see if you can see the trading opportunity.


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Test Answers

Answer 1

Looking at the oddschecker screenshot we can see that Dubawi can still be

backed with UKBetting at 2/1 (3.0). If we look at Betfair we can see that it can

be Laid at 2.9. We could therefore back at 2/1 with UKBetting and Lay at 2.9

with Betfair for a Safe Stake Trade.

Answer 2

The horse you should have identified is Tungsten Strike. There is €2244 to

Lay and only €971 available to Back. This therefore represents a good

opportunity to back now at 5.3 and Lay the bet off later when the price

shortens. If we look at the screenshot below we can now Lay the bet off at

5.1 for a Safe Stake Trade.

horse racing - betfair

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