The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.Creation date: 10 Aug 2017 Sources: FAO, FSNAU, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IOM/DTM, MOH, OCHA, SCUK, SWALIM, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, WHO Feedback: ochaea@un.org www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int

Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Impacts of Drought – Issue 9 (10 Aug 2017)

# IDPs in Region

>2,0002,001 - 15,00015,001 - 50,00050,001 - 100,000100,001 - 200,000

DroughtDisplacement

OtherDisplacement

Over 200,000

< 10,00010,001 - 30,00030,001 - 60,00060,001 - 100,000Over 100,000

# of people wholeft the Region

2,500

6,256

30,167

258

2,071

Registered Somalis crossing border, YTD(IOM/DTM)

XX

Refugees supported to return, YTD(UNHCR)

XX

Source: IDP data; Somalia (OCHA, 31 July 2017), Ethiopia (GoE HRD 8 Aug 2017), Kenya (IDMC, 24 April 2015)

Internally displaced updated, as of 23 June 2017

XX

39,265

455,418`334,000

387,949

269,935

766,000

SUDAN

DJIBOUTI

YEMEN

KENYA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

TANZANIA

SOUTH SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

31.5%

30.7%

22.9%

25.9%

24.7%

16.1%

5.4%

12.5%

18.2%23.3%

15.3%

GAM ratesXX

32.8%Nutrition Situation (GAM)(IPC Acute Malnutrition)

1. Acceptable (<5%)2. Alert (5-9.9%)3. Serious (10-14.9%)4. Critical (15-30%)5. Very Critical (>30%)No data / not analysed

Source: Nutrition (FSNAU, Feb - Apr-17), KFSSG, Feb - Apr-17,ETH, proxy GAM, Jan-17), SAM (UNCEF, June-17), GAM (WFP)

**In Ethiopia, proxy GAM used in drought-affected regions as of January 2017

110,680

SOMALIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

102,263

75,010Number of SAM admissionsas of Jan - July 2017 (UNICEF/FSNWG)

XX

Source: FAO, KSSFG, FSNAU, WFP

8.5M

2.6M

3.2M

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

KENYAUGANDA

ETHIOPIA

Food security condition1: None or Minimal Increase2: Stressed No change3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/FamineNo dataNumber of people incrisis and emergency levels offood insecurity or equivalent

XX

Across the region, 5.4 million children are projected to be acutely malnourished this year. In Ethiopia, Somali region’s SAM admissions account for 25 per cent of the national SAM caseload with 34,978 SAM admissions registered in the region between January and May 2017. Meanwhile, the number of hotspot Priority 1 districts (requiring imme-diate life-saving intervention) increased to 228 in June, up from 192 in December 2016, which represents nearly half of the overall hotspots identified (461 districts). This indicates a return to levels not seen since the height of the El Niño drought impacts in 2016. In Kenya, the Long Rains Assessment estimates that there are now 420,680 acutely malnourished children, the vast majority (369,280) of whom are in the Arid and Semi-Arad Lands (ASAL) areas. 37,000 out of 39,000 pregnant and lactating women estimated to be acutely malnourished, are in the ASAL areas. In Somalia, 1.4 million children are projected to be malnourished in 2017, with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates in some areas remaining between 15 per cent and 30 per cent. 9 out of 12 displacement sites reporting a critical nutrition situation (GAM (WHZ) prevalence of 15 per cent or higher) according to the FSNAU survey conducted in June 2017.

The number of severely food insecure people in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia has increased to 14.3 million, following the publication of new data on the situation in Kenya. In Kenya, the Long Rains Assessment found that food security is likely to deteriorate, with 500,000 people now classified to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Overall, the number of food insecure people has risen from 2.6 million (0.4m in IPC Phase 2 and 2.2m in IP Phase 3) in August 2016 to 3.4 million as of August 2017 (0.8m in IPC Phase 2, 2.1m in IPC Phase 3, and 0.5m in IPC Phase 4), with the number of severely food insecure (IPC Phases 3 and 4) rising from 2.2 million to 2.6 million. In Somalia, the situation remains as indicated in the 2017 Post Gu Assessment, with the risk of famine persisting and the Northern Inland Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral, and Addun Pastoral areas expected to face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity until January 2018. In Ethiopia, the Somali region remains worst-affected, with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity widespread. Relief food needs in the region have already surpassed initial targets by 20 per cent. Nationwide, the mid-year multi agency assessment identified 8.5 million beneficiaries in need of emergency food assistance in the second half of the year (August- December 2017) – up from 5.6 million people identified in January 2017.

Malnutrition DisplacementFood Security

Drought and conflict have now displaced 3.7million people in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya: 2.3million of whom are internally displaced persons(IDPs), and 1.4 million refugees.325 Somali refugees arrived in Ethiopia between 1 and 15 July 2017 (88 per cent women and children), increas-ing the total number of arrivals from Somalia in 2017 to 6,256 people. A WFP announcement about refugee food ration cuts after July triggered a violent protest in Sherkole camp hosting some 11,555 Sudanese and South Sudanese refugees. Some 379,376 South Suda-nese refugees are hosted in Ethiopia, including 36,691 that arrived between 1 and 15 July. Inside Somalia, 16,000 people arrived in the Baidoa region in June - a significant increase from the 4,700 in May. Arrivals in Mogadishu, on the other hand, decreased in June with 650 new arrivals compared to 9,100 in May. 11,200 Somalis reportedly returned to their villages of origin in June. In Kenya, a joint contingency plan developed by the government and humanitarian partners projects that some 220,000 people may potentially be internally displaced in the event of election-related violence.

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.Creation date: 10 Aug 2017 Sources: FAO, FSNAU, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IOM/DTM, MOH, OCHA, SCUK, SWALIM, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, WHO Feedback: ochaea@un.org www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int

Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Impacts of Drought – Issue 9 (10 Aug 2017)

Fall Armyworm

Fall Armyworm (FAW) continues to be an additional threat in the three countries affected by the drought in the Horn of Africa, with new areas across the region infested. In Ethiopia, since February 2017, FAW has affected 520,637 hectares of maize cropland (of 2.3 million hectares planted) across 389 districts in six regions – mostly in surplus producing and densely populated areas. First reported in Yeki district of SNNPR, the pest spread first to western parts of Oromia and Gambella and recently to the Benshangul Gumuz, Amhara, and Tigray regions. The level of damage and loss is estimat-ed to be 15-30 per cent of the total maize crop for the entire SNNPR region and 5-20 per cent in Oromia. In Bench Maji zone of SNNPR, 100 per cent of the maize crop was reportedly lost. Up to 2 million hectares of maize cropland are at risk, leading to between 3 to 4 million metric tons of grain loss, which would bring about 20-30 per cent reduction in the national maize production. The federal government, in coordination with the respective regions, has tried to spray/handpick and prevent the spreading of FAW. However, the absence of locally- generated knowledge on FAW is reportedly one of the biggest challenges in combatting the pest.

Fall armyworm present

KENYA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

ETHIOPIA

DJIBOUTI

KENYA

SOMALIA

ETHIOPIA

UGANDA

73,000CholeraCases

37,989AWDCases

1,216CholeraCases

795deaths

801deaths

14 deaths

Source: WHO, MOH (Kenya, Somalia), July 2017

< 300301 - 1,0001,001 - 3,0003,001 - 8,000Over 8,000

# of AWD / cholera cases by Region

13,800 cases

2,342 cases

5 deaths

1 death

7 deaths

1 death

49 cases 1

319 cases

34 cases

3 Choleracases

Region a�ected by AWD/Cholera

AWD/cholera deaths

AWD/cholera cases

Measles deaths

Measles cases

Dengue fever

Kala azar 1,305 cases

Across the region, rainfall performance remains below-average, and conditions in most drought-affect-ed areas are expected to deteriorate in coming months. However, above-average rains are forecast in the Ethiopia-Sudan border area that may result in flooding. In Somalia, severe drought is expected to continue until the start of the next rainy season in October 2017.In Ethiopia, below-average performance of the summer - gu/genna rainy season has resulted in poor regenera-tion of pasture and water resources. This is likely to negatively impact livestock productivity and household income in southeastern pastoral areas until November 2017. The forecasted above-average 2017 autumn - deyr rainy season is expected to lead to gradual improvements in livestock body conditions and produc-tivity, improving household food access. Meanwhile, livestock numbers remain much reduced and flocks and herds will take 3-5 years to recover. In Kenya, environmental conditions have improved over the previous month in some regions, particularly at the coast, but the underlying recovery from the long rains has been limited. The outlook for the next three months indicates further stress to livelihoods as the dry season unfolds.

Across the region, over 100,000 people have been diagnosed with acute watery diarrhoea (AWD)/cholera and measles outbreaks in Ethiopia and Somalia present a risk to parts of Kenya where vaccination coverage is low.AWD/cholera: In Somalia, over 73,000 cases of AWD/cholera have been reported in 2017, the increased number reflects the inclusion of Somaliland data in the new total. In Kenya, 136 cases of AWD/cholera were reported in Nairobi from 10 to 12 July 2017 and cases continue to be reported in Dadaab Refugee camp and Fafi Sub county. In Ethiopia, 37,989 AWD cases were reported across the country so far in 2017, 90 per cent in Somali region, mostly in Doolo, Jarar and Korahey zones. Measles: In Somalia, suspected measles cases for week 29 decreased compared to previous weeks, but numbers are still high with over 13,800 cases reported in 2017. In Ethiopia, nearly 100 cases of measles were reported in Amhara region in week 27 and 24 new cases in week 28. In Kenya, according to the Ministry of Health, measles transmission continues in Dadaab refugee camp but is under control. Outbreaks in Somalia and Ethiopia may present a risk to some area of Kenya where there was only 50 per cent vaccination coverage in 2016. In Kenya over 300 cases of Kalazar / Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) have been reported with 7 deaths.

Rainfall Communicable Disease

Rainfall total forecast for August 2017 Source: ICPAC

Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Impacts of Drought – Issue 9 (10 Aug 2017)

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Creation date: 10 Aug 2017 Sources: FAO, FSNAU, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IOM/DTM, MOH, OCHA, SCUK, SWALIM, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP, WHO Feedback: ochaea@un.org www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int1: Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD), 2: FTS, 3: 2017 Flash Appeal.

> 30%

21 - 30%

11 - 20%

0 - 10%

Mekele

Bahr Dar

Addis Ababa

Shashemene

Kisumu

Eldoret

Nakuru

Nairobi

Mombasa

Busia

Lira

Kampala

Baidoa

Hudur

Marka

Mogadishu

Maize retail prices% change over last 3 months

Source: FAO ,13 Jul 17

SOMALIA

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

Markets

Access

Source: UBOS, KNBS, CSA (July 2017)

Inflation % change

JuneMayAprMarFebJan

8.8%

9.2%

6.4%

Staple food prices remain well above-average and availability will likely remain constrained in the coming months following recent, and likely forthcoming, poor harvests.In Somalia, local staple food prices remain below 2011 levels, but well above average. In Baidoa, the retail price of sorghum reached 10,300 SOS/kg in June, 95 percent above average and the highest June price since 2011. The retail price of maize in Qorioley in June was 10,750 SOS/kg, 50 percent above average and also the highest June price since 2011. Sustained high prices are attributed to below-average production in 2016 and traders withholding stocks from markets until August/September, when prices will be higher. Livestock trade in the region declined unseasonably with exports from Ethiopia to Somalia affected by poor animal body conditions, while conflict-related trade disruptions continued to adversely affect livestock exports from Uganda to South Sudan.The price of maize in Kenya continued to be high, attracting exceptional supplies from Ethiopia (24,000 MT) which were higher than in 2016 and the four-year

Insecurity continues to impact humanitarian access in several locations in Somalia and Kenya.In Somalia, rising violence since the beginning of the year has disrupted effective delivery of humanitarian relief in parts of the country. The upsurge is mainly due to an increase in targeted attacks against humanitarian organizations by non-state armed actors, and increased violence at aid distribution sites. Two NGO staff were abducted on 21 July, by suspected Al Shabaab, and released two days later. On 23 July, Al Shabaab report-edly released seven NGO local staff kidnapped on 15 July after negotiations with clan leaders. Rising road access challenges continue to be reported along the Mogadishu- Afgooye route and from July, non-state armed actors intensified blockades on Diinsoor, Wajid and parts of Xudur. The blockade continues to impact the availability of key commodities in the markets and cause prices to soar, which limits the utility of cash based interventions to assist those in need.In Kenya, access to Mandera and Lamu counties remains restricted due to security concerns. A potential increase in attacks related to the upcoming elections could pose additional challenges to assist people in need in those areas, as well as in Mombasa and Garissa counties.

Kenya Ethiopia Uganda

Across the three countries, there is a funding gap of US$1.2 billion out of a requirement of $2.9 billion.In Somalia, $858 million has so far been contributed for humanitarian response activities in 2017. This includes $14 million in multi-year funding for activities beyond 2017. Additional funding is, however, urgently needed. It is estimated that at least $100 million is required per month to sustain current levels of response, which are providing more than 3 million people with life-saving assistance and livelihoods support. While a $350 million pledged by UK, US, EU, ADB and Gulf donors will boost response until October, a significant gap of $200 million still needs to be covered to support activities until the end of the year. Pipeline breaks in food security and nutrition are expected to start affecting programmes as early as August.In Ethiopia, the Humanitarian Requirements Document mid-year review, which seeks $1.2 billion, is 61 per cent funded. In coherence with the mid-year needs assess-ment that revealed significant spikes in food and nutritional needs in drought-affected areas and the prioritization exercise in July, the Humanitarian Coordi-nator allocated $44.7 million through the Ethiopia Humanitarian Fund (EHF) to address prioritized, life-sav-ing and time-critical needs across sectors.Kenya: The Drought Flash Appeal, which calls for $166 million, is 43 per cent funded. Following the Long Rains Assessment, which indicated a deteriorating food security and nutrition situation, the Flash Appeal will be revised in August, with a view to further prioritizing the response in areas of greatest need.

average for the second quarter. WFP and UNICEF have prepositioned supplies for three months for Kenya and have diverted supplies for Uganda and South Sudan via Dar Es Salaam port in Tanzania ahead of the elections in Kenya.

KENYA3

$1.25B

$166M

$604M*

$71.7M

SOMALIA2

ETHIOPIA1

$1.51B $611M

REQUIRED (US$) FUNDING

48%

43%

41%

% FUNDED

Funding (as of 1 Aug 2017)

Funded Unmet* This includes US$233m carry-over from sectors

US$2.6 billion Total requirements