horizon scanning megatrends scenarios antonio diapositives 17.2.12
TRANSCRIPT
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
1- Horizon Scanning approaches and links to FLIS and Global Megatrends 2 - Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy - a Scenario Building Process
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
?
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Horizon Scanning approaches and links to FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The DPP Horizon Scanning
Project
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The DPP Horizon Scanning Project is a systematic process of identification, categorization and analysis of information, enabling monitoring and warning of trends, potential paradigm shifts, disruptions and emerging issues.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The project aims to be useful for different objectives, applications and users, encouraging them to better anticipate and understand the external environment and how it interacts with and influences their policies and strategic decisions.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The overall objective of the DPP Horizon Scanning project is to improve DPP’s ability to participate and lead processes based on anticipation and preparation for new challenges, risks and opportunities.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The project seeks to achieve a set of more specific objectives:
• Monitoring of critical issues • Reporting on emerging issues • Conducting Benchmarking activities • Analysis of opportunities and risks for new
activities/industries and/or regions • Technology monitoring and foresight • Foster creativity and capitalize on new ideas • Accelerate organizational learning and agility • Foster networking (national and international)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Project Outputs
• Scanning Documents on trends, megatrends, uncertainties, weak signals and wildcards (organized according to project taxonomy)
• Scanning Database supported by Personal Brain mind mapping software
• Production of inputs for the organisation of Scenario´s workshops, Trend Analysis, Delphi’s, among others
• Production of inputs for the elaboration of articles, reports and working papers
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DPP Scanning Docs
DPP Scanning Docs are a continuously updated set of documents which organize, categorize and analyze
drivers of change (megatrends, trends, uncertainties, weak signals and wild cards) according to a specific
taxonomy (Economy, Industries, Politics, Geopolitics, Environment, Territory, Energy, Business, Society,
Health and Technology).
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DPP Scanning Doc Template 1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card
2. Date: document elaboration date
3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy
4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change
5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change
6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping
7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)
8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the impact of the driver of change
9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)
10. Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified
11. Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts (Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)
12. Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)
13. Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link. Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DPP Scanning Database
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DPP Scanning DB
DPP Scanning DB is a continuously updated dynamic database, supported by specific software for viewing
and organizing information.
www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/Paginas/Scanning-DB.aspx
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
FLIS and Global Megatrends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Global Megatrend
Increasing global divergence in population trends
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Asians still dominate the world’s population;
Africans keep growing and Europeans are
clearly in a reduction model
State of Art
Asia
Africa
Oceania North America Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
A Growing population with divergent paths
Stabilization
Growth
Different evolutions: If African’s fertility rates keep current rhythm, Africa will have 3 billion people in 2050 and 15 billion in 2100
60% of Europe’s population growth depends on migration flows (2010), indicating a natural population contraction
UK and France would surpass Germany’s population in 2050
State of Art
Young people represent the largest percentage of population in emergent and
developing countries, but there are different political and social realities, namely
in matter of gender.
A Growing population with divergent paths
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
trend
Demographic
divergence
trend
“Moving East”
trend
“AsiaTown”
trend
Medium-size
cities
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Potential Implications
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
As emergent countries evolve largely supported by a youthful society, with an ascending middle class and characterized by unprecedented urban growth and influence, developed countries go old and seek immigrants to assure competitiveness and economic growth.
Migrations flows as a compensation factor for demographic aging
by 2050, we expect
about two-thirds of
the world’s people to
be living in cities.
Now the increase in
the number of city
dwellers, between
2000 and 2050 is
expected to be
about three billion
people, which was
the total population
of the Earth in 1960.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
This demographic gap imposes a global challenge to the planet:
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The divergence in demographic trends is a major factor in the evolution of five major drivers of global development:
urbanization mobility energy water biodiversity
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Drivers biodiversity
urbanization
water energy
mobility
"In 1950, there were three times as many Europeans as sub-Saharan Africans.
By 2100, there will be five sub-Saharan Africans for every European”
• (Joel Cohen, October 2011)
Divergence in population trends: impacts and uncertainties
biodiversity
urbanization
water
energy
mobility
mo
bilit
y
• Indian population surpasses Chinese in 2020
• Africans surpass Indians in 2040
Uncertainty:
impacts on
world
geopolitics
and migration
flows?
Urb
an
izati
on
• Today, 3,5 billion people live in cities; in 2050 they will be 6,3 billion
Uncertainty:
urban conflits?
wate
r
• Impacts of urbanization in water deeply stressed areas
• Climate change effects
uncertainty:
scarcity and
conflicts? en
erg
y
• Technological capacity
• Natural limits
• Societal change
Uncertainty:
paradigm
change or
(de)growth’
s model?
bio
div
ers
ity
• 75% of biological species could disappear in a 300 to 2000 years
uncertainty:
collaborative world?
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
In the case of the urbanization process that has accelerated in recent years, translated into the fact that half the world’s population live in cities, the future will maintain the trend of intensification of urban areas, which poses an enormous challenge in terms of reconciling people with more sustainable management of resources, financial and natural resources such as energy and water.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The rise of the middle class and consumer power in the cities of developing countries is an opportunity for the growth of global activities, especially services such as those associated with ICT, particularly telecommunications as well as the expanding market for activities that are going through stagnation/contraction within the more developed world, such as infrastructure construction.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Therefore, this divergence in demographic trends
contains a challenge for the future urban form, with the
eventual collapse of the megacity and the emergence
of a new wave of medium-sized cities which, taken
together, justify 40% of global growth in 2025
according to the McKinsey Report “Urban World:
Mapping the economic power of cities” (March, 2011).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Vulnerabilities
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The expansion of cities and the middle class in emerging
economies
The population of the developing countries represents 80%
of the world and, according to the latest UN estimates, 97%
of current population growth is justified by emerging
countries, where young people have significant weight (31%
versus 18% in developed countries).
In terms of purchasing power, there is a strong asymmetry
between emerging and developed countries, but the growth
of the middle class in emerging economies tends to be high -
two billion people could "win" the status by 2030, with
profound implications in consumption habits, use of
resources and political pressure.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Increasing pressure on natural resources
Will the planet have a capacity for more than two billion people
by mid-century? Taking food production only, according to FAO,
it would have to increase 70% over current levels, yet the
ongoing technological investment may be insufficient to ensure
this objective. The scarcity of arable agricultural land is a risk,
particularly in emerging countries, where the process of
industrialization and urbanization affects more land for city
building. The scarcity of water resources, including drinking
water affects two billion people and consumption is expected to
increase by 50% until 2025 in developing countries, at a time
when over half the globe may have interruptions in water supply.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Aging in developed countries The trend towards an aging population seems irreversible, and currently, more than 80 countries, representing 42% of the world’s population, have a fertility level below the natural replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). The trend is most marked in Europe and Japan, which may lose half of its population by 2100. The impacts - in terms of demand for health care are foreseeable, increasing financial pressure on social security systems and, therefore, questioning the western social model, but at the same time creating opportunities for activities related to geriatrics and senior tourism.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Drivers and Inhibitors
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Drivers
• Industrialization, urbanization and motorization in emerging countries
• Scarcity of natural resources
• Energy and Food Insecurity
• Expansion of middle class in emergent economies;
• Aging population in developed countries
• Continuing crisis in western countries
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Inhibitors
• Change in energy paradigm;
• Rise of emerging countries in value chains relating to technology activities;
• Technology transfer from developed to emerging / less developed countries;
• Migration flows
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Main Actors/Stakehoders
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
We can distinguish three main groups: • developing countries, with high rates of population growth; • the middle-income countries, undergoing demographic stabilization but
more dynamic in domestic migration flows (from rural to urban areas; from urban centers to the peripheries, and abroad), with risks of social exclusion and unemployment;
• the high-income countries with an aging population, where the challenge is the ability to integrate people.
The major Asian economies are key players in the world demographic trends. In 2025, more than 1.6 billion Asians will live in cities. China and South Asia account for 90% of Asian population growth and 60% of the global urban population growth between 2007 and 2025. China and India are at the heart of this transformation - GDP per capita in urban India is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9% (China, 10%).
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Implications for Portugal
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Portugal is among the developed countries, a clear example of aging, with the 2nd lowest fertility rate in the world (1.3 children) for 2010-2015, along with Austria and Malta, and just behind Bosnia-Herzegovina ( 1.1 children). The Portuguese population is expected to start declining in 2014, losing about 4 million inhabitants by 2100, taking into account the "average" scenario of the United Nations; if the evolution is is the least favorable, the loss of the resident population in Portugal could reach 7 million people by the end of the century. This trend has been offset precisely by immigration, considering the last census held in 2011, especially in the coastal zone of the capital and the Algarve region, but the majority of the territory shows signs of shrinking population.
Zoom Portugal
Natural and migration
contraction (-4,8;-1,7)
Natural contraction and positive
immigration (-2,3;7)
Natural and migration positives
(3,8;25)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy
a Scenario Building
Process
Authors Department of Foresight and Planning and International Affairs António Alvarenga (coordination) Paulo Carvalho (coordination up to May 2011) Ângela Lobo Catarina Rogado Fátima Azevedo Miguel Déjean Guerra Sofia Rodrigues With the collaboration of: Manuela Proença Ana Maria Dias
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
» Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approaches
to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term low
carbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para a
Ciência e Tecnologia” (FCT).
» The project started in 2010 and is being developed together with “Faculdade de
Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “Instituto
Superior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).
» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbon
reduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.
» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools are
being developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based on
Scenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, the
two hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities of
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,
production and family income as well as on economic well-being.
» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:
http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
DPP Horizon Scanning e Cenários
Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3088/Compilacao_Cenarios_Portugal.pdf
Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3089/Compilacao_Projectos_Internacionais.p
df
Colecção de Cenários Globais – Selecção e Análise de Projectos Internacionais de Cenários
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/3214/Coleccao_Cenarios_Globais.pdf
DPP Scanning Docs
http://www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx
Workshop
Global Scenarios 2050
KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES
8th November 2010 Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian
Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
• Context-specific approach
• Project, methodology (and even tool) design
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Methods and Tools: more flexible, intuitive and lighter
Foresight • Scenario Planning/Thinking (intuitive-logics: SHELL, GBN, SRI, etc; Porter) • Trend Analysis • Environmental Scanning • Futures Wheels • Futures Accelerator© • Visions Competition© • Incasting • Future Workshops (future conferences)
Actors • Stakeholder Analysis • Strategic Groups (workshop version; adaptation) • Role Plays
Innovation and Creativity • Strategic Deep Dives (IDEO) • Mind Mapping • Brainstorming • Brainwriting • Focus Groups •Storytelling
Competitive Intelligence • Competitive Blindspots • War Games • Competitive Benchmarking & Tactical Analysis • Early Warning (Weak signals) Management Systems • Benchmarking Studies
Methods and Tools: more analitical and heavier
• Scenario Planning (La Prospective, Mathematic/Probabilistic Modeling) • Delphi • Structural Analysis (MICMAC) • Analysis of the “Actors’ Game” (MACTOR) • Morphological Analysis (MORPHOL) • Smic-Prob-Expert / Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) • Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) • Patent Analysis
Strategy and Management
• SWOT analysis • Balanced Scorecard • Core Competencies • Activity System • Business Idea • 5 Forces • Strategic Groups • Value-chain • End Game Analysis • Key Strategic Factors / Internal Factors of Competitiveness
• Gap Analysis • Wind Tunneling • Implications and options • Finantial Analysis • Strategic Conversation • Strategic Choice Structuring • Real Options • Enterprise Value Map • Strat Bridge
• Ideas Combat© • Innovators Solution • Six Hats (de Bono) • Po (de Bono) • Mobility Vip Cards • Idea Boxes • Random Word
Alvarenga, Carvalho, 2009
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I
Workshop methodology: an
adaptation (of a section) of the
intuitive-logics scenario-building
approach
The future will result from the interaction
between Megatrends coming from the
past and shaping the future, Weak
Signals or issues at an embrionary stage
of development, Wildcards that might
surprise us in a positive or negative way,
and Structural Uncertainties that might
take us not just for one but for a plurality
of possible futures.
Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Wildcards Uncertainties /
Key Uncertainties
Weak Signals Megatrends
Visions /
“Intents” Scenarios
Structures, systems
and heuristics
KEY CONCEPTS
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
Catarina Rogado
António Alvarenga
Sofia Rodrigues
Miguel Guerra
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
Ana Maria Fernandes
António de Melo Pires
Guta Moura Guedes
Helena Cordeiro
João Caraça
José Emílio Amaral Gomes
José Maria Brandão de Brito
Luís Campos e Cunha
Luís Nazaré
Manuela Proença
Miguel Duarte Pereira
Miguel Monjardino
Natalino Martins
Nuno Ribeiro da Silva
Pedro Moreira
Roberto Carneiro
Stephan Magnus
Vítor Bento
Ângela Lobo
António Manzoni
Jorge Marrão João Ferrão
Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho
Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn
Patríc ia Fortes
Choosing Key Uncertainties
14 Key Uncertainties
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental Disruptive
Religion Conflict Coexistence
Globalization “Mega-countries” “Flat”
Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge" Western Ideas
Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the Participants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop”
Scenario
Structures
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
3 Scenario Matrixes
(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)
Workshops
Long-term socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal
27th April and 4th May 2011
Casa do Ambiente e do Cidadão, Lisboa
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E
PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério do Ambiente e do Ordenamento do
Território
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Scenarios for Portugal 2050 Workshop
Timeline
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global” (Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.
What might define the future?
What will remain?
Structural limitations?
What can project Portugal?
Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends
Wildcards Uncertainties /
Key Uncertainties
Weak Signals Megatrends
Visions /
“Intents” Scenarios
Structures, systems
and heuristics
KEY CONCEPTS
10 Uncertainties
(in depth scanning2 » “inputs
for discussion”)
PORTUGAL 2050
INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS
1
Evolução do Perfil de
Especialização da Economia
Portuguesa
(Padrão de Actividades
Exportadoras)
2
Posição e Função de
Portugal no Sistema
Internacional de Transportes
e Logística
4
Conectividade
(Física e Digital)
de Portugal na
Economia Global
10
Evolução dos Sistemas de
Ensino e Formação em
Portugal
(Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia,
…)
9
Intensidade, Impactos
e Gestão do(s)
Envelhecimento(s) da
População em Portugal
(Ligação com Sistemas de
Pensões e de Saúde)
8
Tipologia e Papel das
Cidades
no Desenvolvimento do País
7
Evolução do Modelo de
Coesão Social Português
(Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e
Formação; Protecção Social;
Saúde)
5
Padrão de Urbanização
e Organização do Território
3
Preferências e Apostas ao
nível dos Relacionamentos
Geoeconómicos por parte
dos Poderes Públicos e
Investidores Portugueses
6
Evolução das Soluções/
Plataformas Energéticas e
de Mobilidade
10 Uncertainties
(co-built » shared)
Working with Uncertainties and
Configurations
PORTUGAL 2050
POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES
(Workshop 2)
1 Evolution of the Structure and
Specialisation of the Portuguese
Economy
• Exporting activities and internationalisation
• Position in the value chains of goods and
services traded internationally
• Insertion in the international division of
labour.
2 Financial Sustainability of the
Portuguese Economy
• External imbalances
• National debt + private debt
• Ability and promptness in solving financial
imbalances
4 Institutional Capacity Building of
the Portuguese Economy and
Society
• Evolution and credibility of the institutions
• Social capital
10 Evolution of the Education and
Training Systems in Portugal
• Human capital
• Quality and efficiency of the systems
• Connection and harmony with the labour
market
• Training throughout life
9 Generational Uncertainty - how is
the next generation going to live?
• Generational conflicts
• Generational cohesion and solidarity
8 Typology and Role of the Cities in
Spatial Planning
• Territorial cohesion
• Dynamics of urbanisation
• Networks of cities
7 Evolution of the Portuguese social
cohesion model
• Redistributive mechanisms
• Labour market
• Education and Training
• Social protection
• Health
5 Cultural Values and Ability to
Generate Social Capital
• Cultural changes
• Confidence
• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit
• Capacity of innovation and societal change
3 Political System Model
• Evolution of democracy
• Attractiveness of other solutions
6 Strategic Leadership and Pro-
activity of the Economic Agents
• Political System
• Alignment and mobilisation of the players
• Strategic vision and quality of governance
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Focus on high added value products
Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with low profit margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models
Evolution of the Structure and
Specialisation of the Portuguese Economy
1
Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances - “THE HOLE”
Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX”
Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Financial Sustainability of
Portugal 2
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved
Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a provider
Political System Model and State
Configuration 3
Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency
Institutional degradation
Institutional Capacity Building of the
Portuguese Economy and Society
4
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business-as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital (endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous configuration; adaptive evolution
Cultural Values and Ability to Generate
Social Capital 5
Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY ROAD”
Strategic Leadership and Pro-activity of
the Economic Agents 6
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard
Social model that can become reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction)
Evolution of the Portuguese Social Cohesion Model
7
Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but disaggregated from the rest of the territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnership
Typology and Role of the Cities in Spatial
Planning 8
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations; generational conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and knowledge
Generational Uncertainty (how
the next generation is going to live)
9
Increase in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge
Evolution of the Education and
Training Systems in Portugal
10
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
The next task was based, in methodological terms, on Morphological
Analysis. It departed from the Critical Uncertainties and respective
Configurations to the building of the Base Structures of “Portugal
Scenarios 2050”. A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined
Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised in
working groups, were asked to select combinations of configurations
of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain two distinct Scenario
Structures
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II
an adaptation of the
Morphological Analysis logic to
an workshop/participatory
context.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and economic
governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised and/or
decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-
as-Usual); low confidence levels in
the civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest,
keeping the erratic nature of
governance – “THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY
ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Decline Affirmation
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage”
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and
open Democracy (including new
forms of representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another
country’s jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds,
two different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences
as a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Renewal within Continuity Global Portugal
Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models Focus on high added value products
Focus on industry and on sectors of
undifferentiated products with low
margins
Dualist Model – Mix of the two
previous models
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Deterioration of external accounts
and of budget imbalances - “THE
HOLE”
Improvement of financial and
economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Decentralised, participatory and open
Democracy (including new forms of
representation)
Autocratic, probably centralised
and/or decentralised
Centralised democracy, the State
configuration with a tendency to be a
provider
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Institutional renewal; efficacy and
efficiency Institutional degradation
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Perpetuation of the current cultural
values and social capital (Business-as-
Usual); low confidence levels in the
civil society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital
(endogenously created); a more
entrepreneurial society
Capacity for reversing the current
situation by creating social capital,
imposed abroad; less profound
change than the previous
configuration; adaptive evolution
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Absence of vision and quality in
managing the public interest, keeping
the erratic nature of governance –
“THE SPANISH INN”
Technical quality in managing the
public interest, stability trust –
“SUNNY ROAD”
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Adaptive evolution regarding the
European standard
Social model that can become
reinforced
Rupture of the current cohesion
model; fragmentation (for instance:
working in Portugal with labour
contracts subject to another country’s
jurisdiction)
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
increase of conflicts within the city
Urbanisation reinforcement with the
city as a virtuous model but
disaggregated from the rest of the
territory
Stabilisation of the urban dimension
with an urban-rural partnership
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two
different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as
a source of new practices and
knowledge
Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two
different generations with no
interaction
Conflicts due to values, practices and
dependence relations; generational
conflict
Cohesion – intercultural differences as
a source of new practices and
knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance
of the production and transmission of
knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
Increase in the quality and importance
of the production and transmission of
knowledge
Reduction in the quality and
importance of the production and
transmission of knowledge
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Two Long-Term Scenarios for the
Portuguese Economy
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY III
Scenario methodological note: a
more inductive systematization
A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY IV
C1: “Welcome”
C1 - Summary
C1 – Global Framework (GF_A)
C1 - Introduction: Structural Steps in the Functioning and
Positioning of the Portuguese Economy
C1 – Evolution of the Specialization Profile
C1 – Strategic Leadership, Institutional Capacity Building and
Social Capital
C1 – Scientific Potential and Education and Training Systems
C1 – Spatial Planning and Role of the Cities
C1 – Physical and Digital Connectivity
C1 – Energy and Environment
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Scenario no. 1
“Welcome”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
In spite of the major structural forces limiting the international positioning of the Portuguese economy still hindering the success of the attempts for achieving transformation, Portugal manages to position itself at an international level as a Tourism/welcoming country, based on its “classic” comparative advantages and with the capacity for organising its territory as a whole, reclaiming buildings and planning the cities. Several and recurring economic problems occur but our collective capacity to manage the short term and find answers ends up succeeding, step-by-step, in rebalancing the situations. The combination of the gains in urban planning with the dynamics of cultural and creative industries constitutes an important and complementary contribution in the logic of the “innovative welcoming” in the same way as activities associated with active aging, including the development of market niches related to the health/pharmaceutical industry.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Competition
• Resources/ • Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional
Influence/Models • Socio-economic
References
Demography
(Geo)economy
Environment/ Sustainability
Technology
• Rise of Large Eastern Economies, with particular impact of the Chinese Economy
• Oligopolistic world
• …
• Increase in the world population
• Aging of the population in the developed countries
• …
• Pressure on water resources
• Increasing need for Energy
• …
• Different approaches to technological Innovation
• …
•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models
• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
“Welcome” - Synthesis
Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of its economy (containment of the chronic external deficit and ability to plan and organize its territory);
Portugal wasn’t able to successfully bring about some needed structural changes (concerning internal imbalances endemic in nature and the way by which its economy integrated itself in the globalisation process, with the virtuous exception of tourism);
Expectations created with the balancing of public accounts defrauded by Portugal’s inability, in adverse international environment, to become more attractive and central;
Some ability for the generation of "endogenous" skills;
Inability to attract FDI capable of leveraging change in the production profile;
Structural reforms begun, but slow to implement in a context of major budget tightening;
Constant monitoring by financial markets;
Portugal reveals the capacity for short-term response in very difficult situations, but is never able to do the same for long term;
Economic course of action characterized by proximity and quick return investment in activities and sectors where Portugal has comparative advantages with poorly skilled yet specialized labour;
Exception being the promotion of the health cluster in niche markets, driven by tourism to accommodate the elderly population of developed countries, more demanding in health care.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
City and Short Breaks
To improve accessibility to Lisbon / Porto
To improve the tourist experience, particularly in Porto by structuring thematic itineraries, diversifying entertainment events
Integrated Resorts and Residential Tourism
Growing in quality To promote the creation of resorts
with associated offers (e.g. golf courses and Spas)
To highlight tourism management systems focused on resorts
Golf
To consolidate the strong international projection as a golf destination
To build more high quality golf courses (by famous architects) and with a diversified offer
To ensure annual golf tournaments with high international projection
To stimulate golf practice in Portugal
Nautical Tourism
To invest in the docking conditions and in the building of ports and harbours, marinas and recreational ports in the priority areas.
In the cruises segment, to improve the conditions of the terminals and to create new routes
Cultural and Landscape Touring
To create thematic routes To enrich the experience in the main
places of attraction To ensure the adoption of quality
standards along the whole value chain
Gastronomy and Wines
To take advantage of the conditions and natural / cultural resources (Douro, Alentejo and Central Portugal)
To structure the product To stimulate the sale of Appellation
of Origin products (wines and cheeses)
Food Tasting Offer
Sun and Sea Segment
Re-qualify the product with priority to Algarve
To invest in complementary activities which strengthen the value proposal for the tourist
Nature Tourism
To improve the infrastructures To improve road signs and the paths
through nature To develop the offer, ensuring the
preservation of the protected areas
Business Tourism
To consolidate the offer for large congresses in Lisbon and to develop it in Algarve
To develop the small meetings segment in Lisbon, Porto, Algarve and Madeira
Health and Well-being
To develop distinctive offers in Azores and Madeira
To transform the Spa industry in Porto, and in the North and Centre of the country
To develop well-being equipment and services in Hotels
Medical Tourism
“Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments and Benefiting Sectors
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Logistics and Transportation
Geographical reference systems Ports Mobility
Cultural and Creative Industries
Educative and leisure software Media and entertainment Design Architecture Advertising
Support Services
Certification Waste management Environmental management and
valorisation Engineering CIT Training Marketing Organising events
Building and Real Estate
Rehabilitation of real estate Requalification of public areas Energy and Environmental
Certification
Distribution and Trade
Supermarkets Shopping centres Luxury goods
Food Industry
Vegetable and speciality agriculture Biological products Gourmet products Fishing and aquaculture Wine tasting Gastronomy competitions and fairs
Equipment Goods
Leisure equipment Sports equipment Hotel and Restaurant equipment
Security and Defence
Monitoring of the coastal areas and of the exclusive economic area
Internal Security (public and private) Information services
Health and Community Care
Telemedicine Community care Hospitals and Private Clinics Pharmaceutical products related to
aging
(continued from previous slide)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Scenario no. 2
“We cannot fail”
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the functioning of the Portuguese economy and society, combine with some global external driving forces to turn the three decades subsequent to 2011 unique in growth dynamics, increase in competitive capacity and sectorial, institutional and societal reorganisation of our country. In this scenario, there is a reindustrialisation of the Portuguese economy together with the development of new activities, namely in high-technology domains (bio, cogno, nano…) and services of intensive knowledge. Portugal stands out in the fields of clean energies, sustainable mobility and new intelligent materials.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Competition
Resources Skills
Savings
Demography
(Geo)economy
Environment/ Sustainability
Technology
• Rising of large economies
• Changing to a multi-polar world
• …
• Increase of the world population
• Aging of the population in the developed countries
• …
• Pressure over water resources
• Increasing needs of energy
• Increasing importance of the ecology and environmental issues
• …
• Speeding up of change and technologic convergence
• Ubiquitous intelligence • Market convergence • …
•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models
• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
“We cannot fail” - Synthesis
Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its economy;
Macroeconomic and microeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate innovation, creativity and technological improvement moving the economy up in the value chain;
Containment of labour costs for companies so that the jobs needed to absorb a still abundant poorly skilled yet specialised workforce could be kept;
Ability to use "endogenous" resources and skills to attract strategic FDI;
Ability to work both the short term and the long term;
Awareness that short term investment wouldn’t be enough to design and build a sufficiently competitive and innovative economy 20 or 30 years into the future;
Ability to initiate and develop a number of projects designed to attract to Portugal high value added, knowledge-intensive activities;
Ability to tune in and synchronize with the more dynamic and innovative clusters and regions of the world economy (Europe, USA and Asia), bearing in mind the pro-active and selective manner in which Portugal, without forgetting its history, culture and natural integration into the European, Iberian and Portuguese speaking countries, positioned itself among these different regions and actors.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Unexplored combination: in
a tense and unstable world,
with the “western world” going
through a difficult transition,
the external “levers” for the
transformations underlying C2
are, in most part, absent.
C2: “We cannot fail”: in a
growing and highly competitive
world, Portugal manages to
(re)position itself in the new
technological and innovation
waves that feed a global,
integrated and very dynamic
economy.
Unexplored combination:
possible scenario but less
ambitious than C2 (our option
was, in this case, to “exalt”, for
clarity purposes, the built
Scenarios)
C1: “Welcome”: in a world
going through a difficult and
unstable transition which
tended to reinforce the
peripheral nature of Portugal,
our country focused with
success on its comparative
traditional advantages:
“amenities”/natural resources,
cheap labour /”circumstantial”
access to the markets.
GF_B: Highly competitive globalisation; economic growth with effective ability for global
coordination and action
GF_A: Unstable world in a troubled transition; reactive, with protectionist tendencies
and an increase of the national and macro-regional specificities (political, economic and so on)
C2: “We cannot fail”
C1: “Welcome”
Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal and their relation/compatibility with the Global Framework (GF)
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Quantification » not forecasts, but only possible evolution patterns of the variables. » The scenario period was divided into two periods with distinct characteristics: - 2011-2020, a closer time horizon in which, although the degree of uncertainty is very high, the historic trends still have considerable weight. Therefore, a reflection with some detail about the sectorial evolutions is possible. - 2021-2050, a much more distant period, in which the prospect of the variables’ evolution is related mainly with the perception of their relationship with the main trends and “structural characteristics” of each Scenario.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Quantification » The following variables were quantified : • Resident Population;
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices;
• Households Private Consumption over the territory;
• Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, by sector, using a sectorial disaggregation specifically defined for the project.
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
www.cenariosportugal.com
This work was developed under the HybCO2
research project funded by
DEPARTAMENTO DE PROSPECTIVA E PLANEAMENTO
E RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS
Ministério da Agricultura, Mar, Ambiente e Ordenamento do Território Miguel Déjean Guerra │ António Alvarenga
Obrigado