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Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Mountain Day 2, UNFCCC COP 18, Doha

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Page 1: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Himalayan Climate

Change Adaptation

Programme

(HICAP)

Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Mountain Day 2, UNFCCC COP 18, Doha

Page 2: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Overview

• Adaptation challenges

• Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme

• Initial results on food security

• Key messages

Page 3: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Main Challenges

Uncertainties impeding local action

•Local-level climate projections not yet established

•Local institutions still unaware of the issue

•Community knowledge underexplored

Page 4: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Putting Adaptation in Motion

But we cannot wait until knowledge is perfect!

Mainstreaming adaptation options in planning requires:

• Local level projections and scientific analysis

• Understanding of the institutional landscape

• Understanding of local knowledge

• Good pilots

Page 5: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

HICAPClimate change

scenarios Water availability and demand scenarios

Ecosystem services

Foodsecurity

Vulnerability and adaptation

Gender in adaptation

Communication and outreach

Sub-basin level

Localcommunity

level

Cross cuttingcomponents

Goal: Enhance resilience to change,particularly climate change

Objectives: •Reduce uncertainty•Knowledge and capacity development•Actionable proposals

Climate Science

EnvironmentalScience

SocialScience

Page 6: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

 HICAP: Selected Sub-basins

Page 7: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Vulnerability and Adaptation

•Quantitative and place-based qualitative

•3 river sub-basins in India, Nepal, Pakistan

•Over 6,000 householdsand 500 settlements

•Wide range of issues affecting vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment

Page 8: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Mountain Farming Systems

• Small-holder agriculture with fragmented land

• Mixed farming systems

• Low inputs, limited equipment, labour shortage

• Predominantly rain-fed agriculture with high vulnerability to climatic changes

Page 9: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

New Environment Stressors

Most common environmental changes noted in the last 10 years

Page 10: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Coping Strategies

N =1,155, 100%, data: VACA 2011/12

Three most common coping strategies to deal with change in last 10 years

Page 11: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)

Food Security Profile: Access

River sub-basins Self-produced Bought from store

Food subsidies/aid

Other

Eastern Brahmaputra (India)

34 51 9 5

Koshi (Nepal)

54 44 <1 2

Upper Indus (Pakistan)

30 65 5 5

Average 41 51 5 3

Source: VACA data 2012

Over 90% of food comes from their own sources….…..without any support from outside

Contribution of food from different sources to household consumption (%)

Page 12: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Food Security Profile: Stability/Productivity

Top 3 staple and cash crops – reported productivity trends (last 10 years)

Staple CropsEastern Brahmaputra

Koshi Upper Indus

Main paddy Main paddy Wheat

Early paddy Summer maize

Summer vegetables

Winter vegetables

Wheat Summer potato

Cash CropsEastern Brahmaputra

Koshi Upper Indus

Ginger Summer potato

Apple

Mustard Mustard Summer Potato

Chilly Garlic Apricot

Source: VACA data 2012

With a few exceptions, the productivity in most crops is decreasing

Upper mountains in Nepal:

potato an advantageous ‘adaptation crop’

Page 13: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Food Security Profile: Utilization

• Unbalanced diets, micronutrient deficiencies

• Erosion of traditional practices and agro-/diet diversity

• Weak socioeconomic position of women/children

• Food prices affect everyone but disproportionate impact on poor

Page 14: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Adapting/Coping to Changes

• Farmers are cluelessWhy are changes happening?

• Farmers are coping But changes are happening faster than they can handle; sometimes lifelong disadvantage

• Water is the ‘gateway’ to most problems and solutionsClimatic variability exaggerates problems

• Indigenous solutions are often best Research, document, and upscale

Adaptation? Do we prepare for the unpredictable or the predicted?

Page 15: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Way Forward

• Further analysis of resultsCorrelate food security with climatic/hydrological scenarios

• Prevent maladaptation, improve resilience Technology and traditional knowledge

• Improve response mechanismEarly warning systems and flood management

• Reduce farming riskInsurance, market and farmers centric

extension services, particularly for rainfed farming

Page 16: Himalayan Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) Climate Change, Vulnerability, and Food Security Linkages in Himalayas International Centre for Integrated

Thank you

Himalayan Climate

Change Adaptation

Programme

(HICAP)