hedge overview
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Hedge overview. Futures provide additional marketing alternatives Can transfer price risk Can establish approximate price levels in advance of cash market transactions. Hedging. What are the basics you need to know to be a effective hedger in futures? Volume cash commodity - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hedge overviewHedge overview
Futures provide additional Futures provide additional marketing alternativesmarketing alternatives
Can transfer price riskCan transfer price riskCan establish approximate price Can establish approximate price
levels in advance of cash market levels in advance of cash market transactionstransactions
HedgingHedging
What are the basics you need to What are the basics you need to know to be a effective hedger in know to be a effective hedger in futures?futures?
Volume cash commodityVolume cash commodityCurrent futures pricesCurrent futures pricesRelevant basisRelevant basisCurrent basis vs. history Current basis vs. history
AssignmentAssignment
Find the current basis for a Find the current basis for a commodity at your local market commodity at your local market outlet this week, and where you outlet this week, and where you could get past basis data for that could get past basis data for that location in the last five years.location in the last five years.
HedgingHedging
In long run, can futures hedge In long run, can futures hedge improve returns? Will it?improve returns? Will it?
In short run, can it reduce risk, or In short run, can it reduce risk, or improve returns?improve returns?
What’s your objective?What’s your objective?
HedgingHedging
What should be your criteria for What should be your criteria for success in hedging?success in hedging?
Achieving approximate Achieving approximate expected cash price = expected cash price = futures futures ++ expected basis expected basis
Making the maximum profit?Making the maximum profit?
HedgingHedging
Initiation of a position in the futures Initiation of a position in the futures market that is intended as a market that is intended as a temporary substitutetemporary substitute for the sale or for the sale or purchase of the actual commodity purchase of the actual commodity at a later date.at a later date.
HedgingHedging
Use of futures markets to lock-in a Use of futures markets to lock-in a purchase or selling price purchase or selling price nownow, even , even though the physical purchase or though the physical purchase or sale won’t occur until sale won’t occur until laterlater..
Usually bushel-bushel or pound-Usually bushel-bushel or pound-pound hedge, though optimum pound hedge, though optimum hedge may be slightly less for grainhedge may be slightly less for grain
Necessary conditionsNecessary conditions
Cash price must move in parallel Cash price must move in parallel 1 : 1 or in fixed ratio e.g. 1.5 : 11 : 1 or in fixed ratio e.g. 1.5 : 1
to futures price when futures are converted to futures price when futures are converted to cash positionsto cash positions
want to have gains in one market offset in want to have gains in one market offset in the other market, so expected cash price will the other market, so expected cash price will be achievedbe achieved
Hedge ratioHedge ratio
Hedge 1 unit cash product in 1 unit Hedge 1 unit cash product in 1 unit futures if prices move 1:1futures if prices move 1:1
Hedge appropriate ratio if cash prices Hedge appropriate ratio if cash prices move more or less than futures (if move more or less than futures (if hams move more 1.2:1 than hogs, buy hams move more 1.2:1 than hogs, buy 20% more pounds in hog contracts to 20% more pounds in hog contracts to hedge hams)hedge hams)
PRICEPRICE
TIMETIME
CASHCASH
FUTURESFUTURES
Futures/Hedging Futures/Hedging TerminologyTerminology
Nearby contract--the contract Nearby contract--the contract expiring soon after the cash market expiring soon after the cash market transaction transaction
Spread--difference in prices in two Spread--difference in prices in two contract monthscontract months
Rollover--shifting futures position Rollover--shifting futures position from one contract month to another from one contract month to another contract month (Feb to April)contract month (Feb to April)
BasisBasis
Cash - Futures Price DifferenceCash - Futures Price Difference
Usually expressed as so much over or Usually expressed as so much over or under futuresunder futures[Cash P - Futures P = Basis][Cash P - Futures P = Basis]
for a specific contract month; for a specific contract month; reflects location and product quality reflects location and product quality differences and time of deliverydifferences and time of delivery
BasisBasis
Cash - Futures Price DifferencesCash - Futures Price Differences
Reflects local S & D versus Reflects local S & D versus delivery point S & Ddelivery point S & D
Reflects transfer costs betweenReflects transfer costs betweenlocal market and delivery or cash local market and delivery or cash settlement points for futuressettlement points for futures
Changes when contract changesChanges when contract changes
BasisBasis
Reflects futures delivery costs/risksReflects futures delivery costs/risksReflects storage costs sometimes -- Reflects storage costs sometimes --
in carrying charge marketsin carrying charge marketsReflects difference in current vs Reflects difference in current vs
expected price over time prior to expected price over time prior to contract expiration (especially contract expiration (especially livestock with seasonal P swings)livestock with seasonal P swings)
BasisBasis
If basis is predictable when If basis is predictable when commodity will be bought or sold, can commodity will be bought or sold, can accurately translate futures you sell accurately translate futures you sell today into net cash price you expect.today into net cash price you expect.
Basis variation is usually a lot less Basis variation is usually a lot less than cash price variation, so hedging than cash price variation, so hedging is less risky.is less risky.
BasisBasis
Gross return to hedged storage =Gross return to hedged storage =change in basischange in basis
Today’s basis versus July futuresToday’s basis versus July futuresminus June basis = payment for minus June basis = payment for storage storage 30 under minus 10 under=30 under minus 10 under=20 cents/bu to cover costs20 cents/bu to cover costs
Useful HintsUseful Hints
Critical in determining cash price Critical in determining cash price expected w/r/t any futures priceexpected w/r/t any futures price
Unusually wide basis -- hold cashUnusually wide basis -- hold cashUnusually narrow basis -- sell cashUnusually narrow basis -- sell cashCompare with forward contract Compare with forward contract
basis to determine whether it’s a basis to determine whether it’s a better deal than hedgingbetter deal than hedging
Basis-how to get itBasis-how to get it
Need cash prices at your market outlet Need cash prices at your market outlet for several years or morefor several years or more
Need nearby futures prices for same Need nearby futures prices for same time period from brokers, exchanges, time period from brokers, exchanges, etc.etc.
Sometimes basis history from Sometimes basis history from university extension can be adjusted university extension can be adjusted to local conditionsto local conditions
Short HedgeShort Hedge(Selling Hedge)(Selling Hedge)
Intends to sell cash (Physical) Intends to sell cash (Physical) commodity in the future.commodity in the future.
Initiates a short futures position as Initiates a short futures position as a temporary substitute for a later a temporary substitute for a later cash market sale.cash market sale.
Price risk = basis change vs. what’s Price risk = basis change vs. what’s expected.expected.
Short Hedging MechanicsShort Hedging Mechanics
Cash MarketCash Market Futures Futures Market Market TransactionsTransactions TransactionsTransactions
NowNow SELLSELL
LaterLater SELLSELL BUYBUY
Short Hedging Example:Short Hedging Example:
Want to lock in a price for Nov. delivery.Want to lock in a price for Nov. delivery.Cash MarketCash Market Futures Market Futures Market Transactions Transactions Transactions Transactions
MayMay Not Not Short Dec. Corn Short Dec. CornHarvested YetHarvested Yet $2.80 (Basis -.20) $2.80 (Basis -.20)
Later Sell Corn locally Buy Dec. CornLater Sell Corn locally Buy Dec. Corn $2.00 $2.20$2.00 $2.20
Expected Hedge PayoffExpected Hedge Payoff
Expected net price =Expected net price =Futures price Futures price plus basis plus basis (equals expected (equals expected
cash price)cash price)minus commission (if sale)minus commission (if sale)plus commission plus commission (if purchase)(if purchase)
Actual Hedge PayoffActual Hedge Payoff
Net price equalsNet price equalsCash priceCash price
plus/minus futures gain/lossplus/minus futures gain/loss
plus/minus commissionplus/minus commission
(determine whether each is going into (determine whether each is going into or out of your pocket to get correct or out of your pocket to get correct signs)signs)
Which contract to use?Which contract to use?
Typically, the contract closest to Typically, the contract closest to and ahead of cash market actionsand ahead of cash market actionse.g. December contract for e.g. December contract for November feeder cattle saleNovember feeder cattle sale
Cash and nearby futures will be Cash and nearby futures will be most closely related, so basis is most closely related, so basis is more predictablemore predictable
Which contract to useWhich contract to use
If nearby contract isn’t used, subject If nearby contract isn’t used, subject to much greater riskto much greater risk
Spread risk may benefit you if prices Spread risk may benefit you if prices are temporarily out of line, and move are temporarily out of line, and move favorablyfavorably
Spread risk can be a killer-- e.g. Spread risk can be a killer-- e.g. hedging new crop(s) in old crop hedging new crop(s) in old crop futures in short crop yearfutures in short crop year
Which contract to use?Which contract to use?
Exceptions-- when spread favors a Exceptions-- when spread favors a different contract, or expected nearby different contract, or expected nearby contract is not trading enough volumecontract is not trading enough volumee.g. October-December difference e.g. October-December difference
unusually favorable for Octoberunusually favorable for OctoberMay temporarily hedge in other May temporarily hedge in other
month, and shift later (involves spread month, and shift later (involves spread and basis risk)and basis risk)
Short HedgeShort Hedge
Determine expected cash priceDetermine expected cash priceFutures price in appropriate Futures price in appropriate
contract plus/minus typical basiscontract plus/minus typical basisIf attractive expected price, take If attractive expected price, take
futures position to establish futures position to establish approximate selling price later in approximate selling price later in cash marketcash market
Short Hedging Example:Short Hedging Example:
Want to lock in a price for Nov. delivery.Want to lock in a price for Nov. delivery.Cash MarketCash Market Futures Market Futures Market Transactions Transactions TransactionsTransactions
MayMay Sell Dec. FC @ Sell Dec. FC @ $80 (Basis=0)$80 (Basis=0)
Nov Sell cattle Nov Sell cattle Buy Dec. FC Buy Dec. FC $75 $75$75 $75
Hedge resulltsHedge resullts
Expected cash price = $80 per 100 Expected cash price = $80 per 100 lbs.__________________________lbs.__________________________Sell cash cattle at Sell cash cattle at $75$75Futures gainFutures gain 5 5CommissionCommission -.02-.02
Net sale priceNet sale price $79.98 $79.98
Basis changeBasis change
If basis narrows vs. expectedIf basis narrows vs. expectedGood for shorts, bad for longsGood for shorts, bad for longs
If basis widens vs. expectedIf basis widens vs. expectedBad for shorts, good for longsBad for shorts, good for longs
Long Hedge ExampleLong Hedge Example
Cash Market Futures MarketCash Market Futures MarketNowNowLaterLater
Cash Price Received:Cash Price Received:Futures Profit/Loss:Futures Profit/Loss:Commission:Commission:Net Price:Net Price:
Grain storage hedgesGrain storage hedges
Establish storage returns using:Establish storage returns using:deferred futures deferred futures - - basis (= expected cash basis (= expected cash price)price)-- current cash pricecurrent cash price-- storage costs (interest, storage costs (interest, shrink, shrink, handling, drying)handling, drying)-- commission commission== net returnnet return
Storage hedge problemStorage hedge problemCalculate storage gain/lossCalculate storage gain/loss
Current May corn futures $2.86Current May corn futures $2.86October cash price $2.54October cash price $2.54Expected basis -.15 [+ or - .03]Expected basis -.15 [+ or - .03]Interest rate 10% annual rateInterest rate 10% annual rateShrink 1%, other extra costs $.04Shrink 1%, other extra costs $.04Commission $.01/bu.Commission $.01/bu.
Storage expected resultStorage expected result
$2.86 $2.86 - .15 basis- .15 basis-.01*2.71 shrink-.01*2.71 shrink- (.10*7/12*2.54) value of early pay- (.10*7/12*2.54) value of early pay-.01 commission-.01 commission-.04 handling cost-.04 handling cost= 2.48 if hedged vs 2.54 today= 2.48 if hedged vs 2.54 today
Storage hedge actual resultStorage hedge actual result
Cash price $2.38Cash price $2.38plus futures gain .33 (2.86 - 2.53)plus futures gain .33 (2.86 - 2.53)minus commission .01minus commission .01minus other costs .04minus other costs .04minus interest .15minus interest .15shrink .03shrink .03= $2.48 October equivalent price= $2.48 October equivalent price
More complicated hedgesMore complicated hedges
Fed cattle margin hedge, using fed Fed cattle margin hedge, using fed cattle, feeder cattle, corn futurescattle, feeder cattle, corn futures
Soybean crush margin hedge, using Soybean crush margin hedge, using soybean, oil, meal futures.soybean, oil, meal futures.
Hedging considerationsHedging considerations
Are there disadvantages to hedging?Are there disadvantages to hedging?margin calls and costsmargin calls and costslost opportunitieslost opportunitiesquantity riskquantity riskbasis riskbasis riskbroker commission, broker commission,
Tax ConsiderationsTax Considerations
HedgeHedgeindividuals - ordinary income, no limitsindividuals - ordinary income, no limitscorporations - no limitscorporations - no limits
SpeculationSpeculationcapital gain or loss capital gain or loss $3,000 loss limit per year for individuals$3,000 loss limit per year for individuals
Hedging examplesHedging examples
What futures position should I take if What futures position should I take if I want to hedge:I want to hedge: to establish a selling price for to establish a selling price for
corn at harvest?corn at harvest?to protect against a price decline on to protect against a price decline on
corn in storage?corn in storage?three years’ crops at today’s high three years’ crops at today’s high
pricesprices
Hedging examplesHedging examples
to fix a margin for a cattle feeding to fix a margin for a cattle feeding operation when use own corn?operation when use own corn?
to establish a to establish a merchandising/storage margin for merchandising/storage margin for corn your elevator is buying today?corn your elevator is buying today?
to establish a purchase price for to establish a purchase price for soybean meal for six months in the soybean meal for six months in the future?future?
Hedging examplesHedging examples
elevator manager establish a elevator manager establish a purchase price on a price later corn purchase price on a price later corn contract purchase she just sold to contract purchase she just sold to ADMADM
to hedge hams you will buy for to hedge hams you will buy for Christmas sales (fixed, formula P?)Christmas sales (fixed, formula P?)
to hedge Pioneer’s seed corn to hedge Pioneer’s seed corn purchases from contract growerspurchases from contract growers
Hedging examplesHedging examples
To set up a forward purchase To set up a forward purchase contract with farmers at the local contract with farmers at the local grain elevatorgrain elevator
To set up a forward contract with To set up a forward contract with hog suppliers to IBPhog suppliers to IBP
To set up a basis contract for To set up a basis contract for farmers at the local grain elevatorfarmers at the local grain elevator
Which contract to use?Which contract to use?
Exceptions-- when spread favors a Exceptions-- when spread favors a different contract, or nearby is not different contract, or nearby is not trading yettrading yete.g. March-July unusually narrow or e.g. March-July unusually narrow or
widewideMay temporarily hedge in another, May temporarily hedge in another,
and shift later (somewhat and shift later (somewhat speculative)speculative)
New innovationsNew innovations
Contract changes--examples:Contract changes--examples:Lean hog, boneless beef, stocker cattle, Lean hog, boneless beef, stocker cattle,
weather, milk, butter, cheese, nonfat weather, milk, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, wheydry milk, whey
Some mini-contractsSome mini-contractsElectricity, crude oil, Electricity, crude oil, Delivery changes--soybeans, cornDelivery changes--soybeans, corn
New innovationsNew innovations
Cash settlement--volume wtd. 3 area Cash settlement--volume wtd. 3 area average of two days USDA price average of two days USDA price reports -- 9th and 10th business reports -- 9th and 10th business days of monthdays of month
Closes after 10 days in delivery Closes after 10 days in delivery monthmonth
New innovationsNew innovations
New delivery points--CBOT grains New delivery points--CBOT grains and soybeans --not in Chicago!!and soybeans --not in Chicago!!
New contracts--boneless beef, New contracts--boneless beef, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, broilersbroilers
New innovationsNew innovations
Electronic tradingElectronic tradingnights--CME and CBOTnights--CME and CBOTmany European exchanges with many European exchanges with
electronic trading taking overelectronic trading taking over
Will open outcry system continue?Will open outcry system continue?
Hedge overviewHedge overview
Offers more marketing alternativesOffers more marketing alternativesCan transfer risk Can transfer risk Can improve or reduce returnsCan improve or reduce returnsImpacts many forward contracts, Impacts many forward contracts,
since that is how contractor often since that is how contractor often shifts riskshifts risk
Hedge overviewHedge overview
Results often considered “bad” by Results often considered “bad” by farmers farmers
5 - 25% of producers use futures, 5 - 25% of producers use futures, and then only sometimesand then only sometimesWHY??WHY??
Factors InfluencingFactors Influencing Forward Positions Forward Positions
Price expectations versus current Price expectations versus current prices available--likelihood of this prices available--likelihood of this position being advantageousposition being advantageous
Ability to withstand possible Ability to withstand possible adversities associated with taking or adversities associated with taking or not taking a market positionnot taking a market positionWhat are the factors which you What are the factors which you
should consider?should consider?
Forward position Forward position influencesinfluences
Diversification;offsetting risks?Diversification;offsetting risks?Crop yield or revenue insuranceCrop yield or revenue insuranceQuantity risk Quantity risk Costs of cash flow shortageCosts of cash flow shortageHow well objectives would be metHow well objectives would be metEvaluate tradeoffs; determine Evaluate tradeoffs; determine NETNET
benefit perceivedbenefit perceived