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Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Regulatory Developments Around the World
Anup Bandivadekar!
July 3, 2012
Key Policy Drivers
2
Heavy Vehicles are a major and growing portion of transport fuel use globally!
ICCT Roadmap model v39 (June, 2012) !
China! India! EU-27! USA! Brazil!
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IEA World Energy Outlook, 2010!
Key Policy Drivers
3
This has been a decade of passenger car fuel efficiency standards…!
US 2025:107!
Canada 2016:170!
EU 2020: 95!
Japan 2020: 105!China 2020: 117!
S. Korea 2015: 153!
Mexico 2016: 173!
40!
60!
80!
100!
120!
140!
160!
180!
200!
220!
240!
260!
2000! 2005! 2010! 2015! 2020! 2025!
Gra
ms
CO
2 p
er K
ilom
eter
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rmal
ized
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NE
DC
!
US-LDV!
Canada-LDV!
EU!
Japan!
China!
S. Korea!
Australia!
Mexico!
Solid dots and lines: historical performance!Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets !Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets!Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study!
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India!
Policy Landscape: Timelines Across Regions
4 Text in orange represents the ICCTʼs estimate of regulatory action and timing!
The coming decade will be a decade of Heavy Vehicle fuel efficiency standards…!
Country/ Region
Regulation Type
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Japan Fuel economy
Standard proposal
Final rule
Phase 2 implementation?
Canada GHG/Fuel efficiency
Standard proposal & final rule?
Phase 2 implementation?
Mexico Fuel efficiency
Standard proposal?
Phase 2 implementation?
China Fuel consumption
Test procedure finalized
Industry standard proposal
Industry std implemented
Standard proposal?
Final rule?
European Union
GHG Impact assessment
California End-user purchase
requirements
Regulation implemented starting MY 2015?
Technical studies Policy implementation?
Additional reqs. for existing tractors and trailers (<MY 2010)
Additional reqs. for existing trailers and reefers (<MY 2010)
Test procedure finalized?
Requirements for new tractors and trailers (MY
2011+)
Regulation implemented starting MY 2016?
Phase 2 proposal and final rule?
Phase 1 regulation implemented starting MY 2015
United States
GHG/Fuel efficiency
Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016)
Regulation implemented starting MY 2014?
Key Technology Improvement Areas
5
Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics
Reduce rolling
resistance
Improve transmission and drivetrain
efficiency
Improve engine
efficiency
Reduce vehicle weight
Optimize driver
behavior
Reduce auxiliary
loads
There are many opportunities to reduce fuel consumption of heavy vehicles (including buses).!
US Technology Assessment
Slide 6
National Academy of Sciences (March 2010) found 35 – 50% improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe!
National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of the combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where %FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.!
Key Policy Drivers
7
Diversity of applications in heavy vehicle fleet, but a reasonable regulatory framework can be developed to cover all market
segments.!!
For most segments, the top 5 manufacturers account for the majority of vehicle sales
8
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Top 5 US Class 8 tractor makes (2003-2007) !
MJ Bradley 2009! Top 5 China tractor makes (2007-2010) !
ICCT 2011!
Top 5 EU truck (>16 mt) makes (2010) !
ACEA 2011!
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AMW 1%
Ashok Leyland 15%
Eicher 10%
Force 1%
Mahindra 2%
Mercedes 0%
Swaraj 3%
Tata 67%
Tatra 0% Volvo Truck
1%
Rigid Truck Market Share for 2009-10 Sales
HDV Market Summary for India
9
* Source: Segment Y (2011)!
Ashok Leyland
24%
Cerita 0%
Eicher 5%
Force 8%
Mahindra 7% Swaraj
5% Swaraj-Isuzu
0%
Tata 50%
Volvo Truck 1%
Bus Market Share for 2009-10 Sales AMW 4%
Ashok Leyland
33%
Eicher 0%
Tata 63%
Volvo Truck
0%
Tractor Market Share for 2009-10 Sales
Indian Market dominated by TATA and Ashok Leyland, but competition is increasing.!
!
Regulatory Design Summary
10
Regulatory Categories! Certification Test Procedures! Metric!
Japan!Other Truck (11 subcategories)!
Tractor (2 subcategories)!Route Bus (5 subcategories) !Other Bus (8 subcategories)!
Simulation modeling + engine dynamometer
testing!Fuel economy!
(km/L)!
N. America!Tractors!
Vocational vehicles!HD pickup trucks and vans!
Engines (tractors, voc. vehicles)!
Vehicles à !simulation model!
!Engines à !
dynamometer testing!
Tractors, Vocational!
HD Pickups! Engines!
gal/1,000 ton-mi!
gal/100 mi!
gal/100 bhp-hr!
g/ton-mi! g/mi! g/kWh!
China*! Tractors, dump trucks, rigid trucks, city buses, other buses!
“Base” vehicles à!chassis dynamometer!
!“Variant” vehicles à!simulation modeling!
Fuel consumption!(L/100 km)!
European Union* (certification)!
Truck and bus categories based on GVWR, chassis
configuration, and axle configuration!
Simulation modeling! GHG!(g/tonne-km)!
*Regulatory design is currently under development in China and the EU. This represents the ICCTʼs best !estimate of the structure of these future programs. For the EU, this information represents an upcoming !certification program, not necessarily a standard. !
11
Japan: Measuring Performance
November 2005: Japan introduced world’s first fuel economy standard for HDVs using the Top Runner approach
Japan: Efficiency targets
12!
!2015 fuel economy targets and percent improvement by
vehicle type and class!
§ Both the 2015 average target and relative improvement assume a constant 2002 vehicle sales mix
§ Compliance through simulation modeling with standard inputsà improvements primarily from engines !
Vehicle Type! Vehicle Class!Fuel economy (km/L) !
Improvement (%)!2002 baseline!
!2015 target!
!
Truck!Tractor! 2.67! 2.93! 9.7!
Other truck ! 6.56! 7.36! 12.2!Total! 6.32! 7.09! 12.2!
Bus!Urban! 4.51! 5.01! 11.1!
Other bus! 6.19! 6.98! 12.8!Total! 5.62! 6.3! 12.1!
EPA & NHTSA GHG/ Fuel Efficiency Regulation!
HD GHG/FE Regulation
Engine
Vocational (FTP)
Linehaul (SET)
Vehicle (EPA GHG Model)
Highway Tractor Families
(Class 7 & 8) (Daycab & sleepers)
Vocational Families
Class 3-5, Class 6/7 & Class 8)
Engine and vehicles are separately regulated, not integrated.!Trailers are not included.!
Tony Grezler, Volvo!
US FE/GHG Program: 3 Broad Regulatory Categories
14
Class 7/8 Tractors!
Class 2B/3 Pickup !Trucks and Vans!
Everything Else = “Vocational Vehicles”!
Stringency in MY 2017 vs. MY 2010 baseline; < 3 year payback !
10-23%!
6-9%!
12-17%!
Slide 15
Class 8 Tractor Sleeper Cab High Roof Compliance Pathway!
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16
Progress Around the World, Implications for India
§ There is a great deal of momentum in the HD FE/GHG space, and we expect a number of countries/regions to introduce programs in 2012 and 2013 that will go into effect in the 2014-2016 timeframe
§ India is emerging as a major market for HDVs and has the opportunity to improve the criteria pollutant and fuel efficiency performance of its HDVs to world-class levels
§ Cleaner, more efficient vehicles will benefit both the private sector and society as a whole – Reduced fuel use and imports – Improved air quality à health benefits
§ Ideally, regulatory development in India will be a collaborative process between government, industry, and academia
For more information…
§ ICCT India website: http://theicct.org/india § ICCT’s Heavy Duty Vehicle Program:
http://www.theicct.org/heavy-duty-vehicles § Briefing on the benefits of low sulfur fuels in India:
http://theicct.org/benefits-low-sulphur-fuels-india § Briefing on the potential of lower vehicle emission
standards in Indian cities: http://theicct.org/potential-lower-vehicular-emissions-indian-cities
§ 2011 Brussels Workshop on HDV efficiency: http://www.theicct.org/hdv-workshop-nov2011
Anup Bandivadekar anup “at” theicct.org
http://twitter.com/#!/
theicct
Slide 17
Extra Slides
18
19
Japan: Fuel Economy Program Summary
November 2005: Japan introduced world’s first fuel economy standard for HDVs
§ Vehicles included!- Commercial vehicles with gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) > 3.5
metric tons, buses with carrying capacity > 11 people!§ Metric: fuel economy à km/liter !§ Targets disaggregated by vehicle type, class, and weight !§ Most efficient vehicle (“top runner”) in MY 2002 set as baseline!
- Hybrid vehicles were excluded when determining the top runner !§ Manufacturers must meet targets starting in MY 2015!§ Efficiency technologies incorporated into vehicles must be
displayed prominently in catalogs starting in 2006 !§ Incentives for early compliance including tax reductions !
US FE/GHG Program: Tractor Certification
20
Engines subject to !their own standard!
Full vehicle is certified using the GEM vehicle simulation tool !
Unique vehicle characteristics: aerodynamics, rolling resistance, weight reduction, idle reduction, speed limiter!
Fuel!CO2!CH4!N2O!
US FE/GHG Program: Vocational Vehicle Certification
21
Engines subject to !their own standard!
Full vehicle is certified using the GEM vehicle simulation tool !
Unique chassis characteristic: rolling resistance!
Fuel!CO2!CH4!N2O!
US FE/GHG Program: HD Pickup & Van Certification
22
Chassis dynamometer testing!
§ Meant to mirror the light-duty testing program § Main difference from LD program: vehicles are certified based on their
“work factor” (WF)
WF = [0.75 x (Payload Capacity + xwd)] + [0.25 x Towing Capacity]!where ! !!Payload Capacity = GVWR (lbs) – Curb Weight (lbs)!xwd = 500 if the vehicle is equipped with 4-wheel drive and 0 otherwise !
Developments in the European Union
23
§ Euro VI regulation requires labeling methodology and public information on vehicle performance !
– Potential for standard or other policy to be established once labeling program is in place !
§ European Commission currently overseeing various studies that will be the foundation of a future HDV policy action!
§ Market study and technology potential completed in early 2011 and validated by another consultant study that was completed in early 2012 !
– Characterized the HD fleet, market structure and function, manufacturers!– Potential for per-vehicle fuel consumption reduction between 30 and 50% by 2020!
§ Development and testing of a certification procedure for CO2 emissions and fuel consumption of HDVs !
– Simulation modeling will be central to the certification process!– Test procedure finalized in 2013!
§ Mandatory reporting in 2013/2014 and possible regulation in 2018-2020 timeframe!
China: Fuel Consumption Program Summary
24
2011!
Agencies currently working to develop a standard based on
rigorous technology potential analysis
Industry standard proposal
2012! 2013!
Industry standard enforced
Fuel consumption test methods for HD commercial vehicles
“Base” vehicle “Variant” vehicle
Chassis dyno Simulation modeling Coastdown test data
Run C-WTVC cycle
Measurement and calculation of fuel consumption
Finalized Test !Procedure !
Industry standard finalized
Key Technology Improvement Areas
25
Engine! 2-5%! 4-10%! 8-12%! 4-7%!
Transmission and driveline! 3-7%! 4-8%! 2-5%! 2-5%!
Aerodynamics! < 2%! 2-5%! 8-12%! < 2%!
Tires! 2-5%! 2-5%! 8-12%! 2-5%!
Lightweighting! 1-2%! 1-2%! 1-3%! 1-5%!
Hybridization! 15-20%! 15-25%! 5-7%! 20-25%!
Light HD Truck! Medium HD Truck! Heavy Combination!Tractor! Large Transit Bus!
~ 20 - 30% fuel consumption reduction possible using off-the-shelf technologies and technologies that will be available in the 2015-2020 timeframe !
Note: For each vehicle type, the overall FC benefits that can be achieved are !highly dependent on the assumed baseline levels, drive cycles, payload, etc.!