haiti chile earthquake

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| T h e D e p a r t m e n t o f S t a t e |

Department of State Disaster Task Force

Prepared for THE SECRETARY OF STATE

Geneva Summit 2010

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Preface

The National Security Council (NSC) has directed that the Department of State, a member of the Disaster Task Force (DTF), to prepare a briefing book for the Secretary of State (SecState) in preparation for the upcoming Geneva Summit. The DTF is to project out to the end of 2011. The Department of State (DOS) is to address the following issues in the tasking below. The tasking is not inclusive, and is subject to change as circumstances dictate.

Tasking

In mid-May 2010 the Secretary of State (SECSTATE) will attend a special UN meeting in Geneva, which will address the international response to actual and potential natural and man-made disasters. The National Security Council (NSC) has directed that a dedicated Disaster Task Force (DTF) be established to provide current intelligence and status reports, both on current international issues and on potential domestic problems, to include possible related terrorist threats. The DTF consists of teams from Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DOS), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC), and a “red team” to focus on vulnerabilities both in the US and abroad. Teams have been tasked with preparing the SECSTATE’s Briefing Books on these issues Of particular importance will be providing analysis of the broad range of responses to recent humanitarian disasters, including Haiti, Chile, Swine Flu; US preparedness for similar events; and terrorist capabilities and intentions of inciting humanitarian crises; In addition to certain assigned taskings, analysts will determine, through research, additional important topics that may engage the SECSTATE during this meeting.

Current Issue

The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is the current issue that the DOS is preparing for the SECSTATE.

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Department of State Disaster TASK Force

Overall Forecast

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Overall Forecast

Executive Summary: After ten weeks of open source research and analysis of the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake, it is highly likely that Haiti will remain unstable due to corruption within the Government of Haiti (GOH) a lack of coordination and communication between foreign powers and the GOH in the relief and reconstruction efforts. This estimate is due to Haiti’s unstable government, which is riddled with corruption. The US military is seen as the lead player in the relief and reconstruction efforts in Haiti. With the departure of the US military on 1 June, the Haitian populace fears that humanitarian efforts and security will drastically decrease. There is large distrust between the Haitian people and the GOH. René Préval, the President of Haiti, is rapidly becoming unpopular among the Haitian people due to his perceived corruption and lack of ability to rebuild Haiti. The combination of these issues contributes to the unlikelihood that the GOH will succeed in rebuilding its country.

Discussion: As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitians worry that the GOH lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in a permanent state of instability. There is a lack of coordination and communication between the US, UN, NGOs and the GOH, reconstruction and relief efforts remain inefficient. With President René Préval postponing presidential and legislative elections in the country, Haitians are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the GOH. Groups that once supported Haitian President René Préval are arming themselves against the GOH, putting the country in danger of further instability and political violence. Préval’s declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvious successor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing the country.

According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs and displaced Haitians continue to commit violence against civilians. In some instances these gangs have supplanted the GOH in certain neighborhoods that are absent of humanitarian aid and are now in control. With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is inevitable that the US military will redeploy to Haiti. The date for US military disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so many Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms. After the US military forces withdraw from Haiti on 1 June, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) will provide overall security within Haiti. However, the Haitian National Police, with the oversight of MINUSTAH, is to provide security within Port-Au-Prince, the capital city. However, the GOH police and military forces are under-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption.

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The rainy season that officially began on 1 May, has displaced several Haitians from certain tent camps. With a limited amount of time along with inadequate command and control of the situation, the GOH is unable to relocate Haitians to designated camps outside the capital city. The GOHs lack of control and legitimacy among displaced Haitians could potentially force the US to redeploy the US military back to Haiti.

James E. Gallagher Max Korczyk Shannon Mae Connors

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Key Findings

USG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of Mexico

Due to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely to take over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industry that has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticize BP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well will ultimately be plugged.1 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and the leaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically.2 US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month after the deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that they will pay all expenditures and compensations.

Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An Ongoing Issue

It is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide long term security within their country. GOH police and military forces are under-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption. A sudden withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would further destabilize the country. Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from the national prison, crime and gang activity is expected to increase, especially around the distribution stations of food, water and medical aid.

Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption:

The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruption and the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within the Government of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes and initial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead to structures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong central government that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong central government for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention.

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Elections in Haiti Needed for Change

In order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010 election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti will continue to mistrust the Haitian government.

Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead Reconstruction

It is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstruction efforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting the country's wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular support for Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending political crisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government.

Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military Disengages From Haiti

Successful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed in Haiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH, GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying out routine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID team offer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.

GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs Unlikely

It is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordination and communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs are operating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetings with relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due to stresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This is causing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haiti becoming too dependent on foreign aid.

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Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start Soon

It is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of the Atlantic hurricane season towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010 hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause further damage and heighten humanitarian need.

Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without Effective Leadership

If Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-term reconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past the international community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted to last for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian state cannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders will require the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effective leadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance to further a stabilize Haiti.

Haiti’s January Shake-Up Fueling Further Corruption

Due to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0 is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and future information collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing in popularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reporting utilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 is a decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ near real-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.

Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster Information Dissemination

Due to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0 is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and future information collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing in

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popularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reporting utilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 is a decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ near real-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster.

Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOH

The rainy season is likely to further weaken the government of Haiti (GOH) as it continues to recover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve and develop temporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due to ineffective government, mistrust among the GOH and people, and poor conditions of the relocation camps.

US Efforts Likely To Continue After US military Pull-Out

US relief efforts in Haiti will likely continue after the pull-out of remaining military forces. When 1 June comes around, the US will be pulling out the remaining military forces in Haiti. Many Haitians fear that the US involvement will cease once this happens. That is not the case as President Obama has pledge full support towards Haiti and its new beginning. Efforts of the USG after the military pull-out will include the National Guard from a number of US states, financial support and relief, and political support.

US Relief Efforts Key in Helping Haiti

It likely that the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until the GOH is ready to take control of their homeland. After Haiti was hit by an earthquake in January, the international community stepped up and sent relief aid packages to save the tiny island nation. The US went even further by sending its military force, economic aid, and political officials to help reestablish some level of control for the Government of Haiti (GOH).

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Elections in Haiti Likely will Help Stability

Haiti’s Presidency over the years has been in turmoil for a long time. With its history of coups and inadequate leadership through the years, the government of Haiti faces instability and corruption within its political levels. Due to the corruption and lack of support from the Haitian populace, it is likely that elections will take place in Haiti to bring stability to the country.

US Forces Highly Likely to Return to Haiti

Due to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that the US will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financial support. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH will be led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will further press instability throughout the country.

US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-Out

Despite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1st, it is likely US forces will continue efforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts, continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti will bring Haiti closer to a sense of stability.

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Table of Contents

T of Contents PREFACE AND TASKING ....................................................................................................... 1 OVERALL FORECAST ........................................................................................................... 3 KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................... 5 CURRENT ISSUE ............................................................................................................. 13 SECURITY ...................................................................................................................... 16 HAITI: POST EARTHQUAKE SECURITY HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE AN ONGOING ISSUE .................................................. 16 SUCCESSFUL RECONSTRUCTION UNLIKELY AFTER US MILITARY DISENGAGES FROM HAITI ..................................... 18 US RELIEF EFFORTS KEY IN HELPING HAITI ................................................................................................. 20 CORRUPTION ................................................................................................................ 21 HAITI’S JANUARY SHAKE-UP FUELING FURTHER CORRUPTION ......................................................................... 22 INEFFICIENT GOH RESPONSE HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO CORRUPTION .................................................................. 23 ELECTIONS IN HAITI LIKELY WILL HELP STABILITY .......................................................................................... 25 HAITI: SHORT, MID AND LONG TERM .................................................................................. 26 RAINY SEASON LIKELY TO FURTHER WEAKEN GOH ...................................................................................... 27 GOH/UN COOPERATION WITH NGOS UNLIKELY ........................................................................................ 28 SHORT-TERM RECONSTRUCTION NOT LIKELY TO START SOON ........................................................................ 29 HAITIANS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT GOH LEAD RECONSTRUCTION ................................................... 30 US MILITARY FORCES LIKELY TO RETURN TO HAITI ....................................................................................... 32 LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION LIKELY TO IMPROVE HAITI.............................................................................. 33 WEB 2.0 LIKELY CRUCIAL IN FUTURE DISASTER INFORMATION DISSEMINATION ................................................... 34 US EFFORTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFTER US MILITARY PULL-OUT ................................................................... 35 LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 36 SCENE SETTER ................................................................................................................. 37 EDMUND MULET: SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE AND HEAD OF MINUSTAH .......................................................... 38 SIMEON TROMBITAS: COMMANDING GENERAL, JTF-H ................................................................................. 40 SIR JOHN HOLMES: DIRECTOR OF HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS AND EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR ....................... 42 POPULATION MOVEMENT WITHIN HAITI ............................................................................... 45 LINK CHART (HAITI NODE)................................................................................................. 47 HUMANITARIAN AID WITHIN HAITI ..................................................................................... 49 WHO HAITIANS THINK SHOULD CARRY OUT RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS ..................................... 51 LOCATIONS OF CONGESTED CAMPS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE .......................................................... 51 LOCATIONS OF WFP FOOD DISTRIBUTION CNETERS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE .................................... 53 LOCATIONS OF THE OIL SLICK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ............................................................. 55

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CONTACT INFORMATION ................................................................................................... 57 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... 59 IMAGERY SOURCING ......................................................................................................... 61 ENDNOTES ..................................................................................................................... 63

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Current Issue: Gulf Coast Oil Slick

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Fig 1: BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig after the initial explosion

USG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of Mexico

Executive Summary: Due to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely to take over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industry that has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticize BP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well will ultimately be plugged.3 BP’s most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and the leaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically.4 US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month after the deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that they will pay all expenditures and compensations.

Discussion:

BP's latest effort to contain the massive oil slick by placing a riser insertion (a long tube) into the leaking well has failed.5 BP is trying again to fit the riser insertion back into the well.6 BP continues to pump chemical dispersants at the leak, but this method is showing little success. US legislators continue to ask BP why they haven’t done more.7 US legislators are frustrated that BP, considered to be a sophisticated company, is using unsophisticated methods to fix a complicated problem.8 Furthermore, the daily cost of the oil slick is now running at USD 42 million.9 As BP’s solutions continue to fail, the company is asking for more USG intervention.10 The USG states that it expects the situation to worsen.11

The international community has not spoken out about the oil slick. Cuba, a nation which is expected to be affected by the oil slick, refused to comment on the slick's possible threat to their country.12 The oil slick is not expected to land in Mexico. However, the oil slick will have long term implications for the fishing industries of all gulf coast nations.13

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Source Reliability: Low Analytical Confidence: Medium Analytic Confidence: Analytical confidence is medium. The sources used are current, but not very reliable. James E. Gallagher

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Haitian Security

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Fig 2: UN peacekeeping soldier in Haiti

Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An Ongoing Issue

Executive Summary: It is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide long term security within their country. GOH police are under-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled with corruption. A sudden withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would further destabilize the country. Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from the national prison, crime and gang activity is expected to increase, especially around the distribution stations of food, water and medical aid.14 Discussion:

The GOH’s role in reconstruction and relief efforts continues to be minimal at best. Displaced Haitians are plagued by a lack of security, theft, violence, rape and gang activity around the tent cities in Port-Au-Prince.15 Currently, security is provided chiefly by US forces and MINUSTAH, with a small detachment of GOH forces.16 Haitians see GOH forces as inadequate and inefficient.17 Haitians express concerns that once US forces depart on 1 June, GOH forces will harass and abuse displaced Haitians. The presence of international military forces has been positive, yet Haitians perceive that the focus of international military forces have concentrated on the protection of humanitarian workers rather than on Haitians who are at greatest risk from danger.18 However, there has been a sharp increase in the number of Ransoms throughout the country.19 Although International forces are training Haitian forces, GOH forces remain inadequately trained and equipped.20 Since the January 2010 earthquake, the total number of UN security forces on the ground continues to be at 8,940 troops, while the police force is currently at 3,711.21

Source Reliability: High

Analytical Confidence: Medium

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Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to a large amount of evidence supporting the estimate. Source reliability is high because the information is derived from USG, UM and Janes Sentinel.

James E. Gallagher

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Fig 3: Brazilian MINUSTAH troops breaching a house

Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military Disengages From Haiti Executive Summary: Successful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed in Haiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH, GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying out routine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID team offer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace. Discussion:

As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitians worry that the Government of Haiti (GOH) lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in a permanent state of instability.22 According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs in Haiti continue to commit violence against civilians. In some instances these gangs have supplanted the GOH in certain neighborhoods and are now in control.23 In the absence of NGOs or local officials, gangs hold authority within slum areas and smaller tent camps. Increasingly, orphans are turning towards gangs for security.24 Doctors Without Borders state there has been a recent spike in the number of gunshot victims.25 Violence is now increasing even while US military forces are operating in Haiti. Once US forces depart, the problem is expected to further deteriorate.

With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it is inevitable that the US military will have to redeploy to Haiti.26 US efforts in Haiti after 1 June will be led by USAID personnel and 500 guardsmen, focusing on building the capacity of the GOH, which includes expanding its sphere of control into areas where lawlessness prevails.27 The date for US military disengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so many Haitians still homeless as the rainy season looms.

Source Reliability: Medium Analytical Confidence: High

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Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is high due to a large amount of sources that support the estimate. The main source is derived from an NGO (Refugee International). The remaining sources are not as credible but support the estimate. James E. Gallagher

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US Relief Efforts Key in Helping Haiti Executive Summary: It is likely the US will continue to aid and supervise the situation in Haiti until the government of Haiti (GOH) is established and stabilized. USG efforts will be essential towards Haiti, to regain the sense of being a normal country. After Haiti was hit by an earthquake in January, the international community stepped up and sent relief aid packages to save the tiny island nation. The United States went even further by sending its military force, economic aid, and political officials to help reestablish some level of control for the GOH. Discussion:

Once the Haitians were overwhelmed by the destruction from the earthquake, the US sent down military personal in order to help in the humanitarian efforts. The United States Government (USG) deployed 22,000 personnel, including 7,000 land-based troops, with the remainder operating aboard 58 aircraft and 15 nearby vessels in and around Haiti. 28 As the US is pulling out the remaining troops, it will leave 500 National Guard forces to help rebuild Haiti.29 US officials have stated that they are not looking to take over Haiti. The US forces are working with United Nations MINUSTAH personal in Haiti to help conduct recovery and relief efforts and logistics and command activities.30 The US responded quickly to the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake. The USG sent financial aid packages to Haiti in order to support Haiti’s recovery and reconstruction campaign. At the Donors Conference in March, the USG pledged 1.15 billion United States Dollars (USD) to Haiti, to support the efforts in rebuilding Haiti.31 The US has approved legislation that will clear any debts the GOH have developed over the years, and promote trade with certain industries within Haiti, such as textiles.32 Also the USG plans to increase its initial pledge of 1.15 billion USD to Haiti to $3.5 billion over the next five years.33 After the earthquake struck Haiti, Secretary of State (SoS) Hilary Clinton went to Haiti and promised the Haitians that the US would be helping them recover and rebuild their nation. Former US Presidents Clinton and Bush went to Haiti after the earthquake to help assist in keeping Haiti in the world’s attention.34 By visiting Haiti, the two former Presidents of the US planned to assist Haiti in its plan to recover and rebuild their nation stronger than before.

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: Medium Max Korczyk

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Haitian Corruption

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Haiti’s January Earthquake Fueling Further Corruption Executive Summary: Most Haitians fail to see any improvements from relief efforts and it is likely such perceptions can escalate into violent destabilization of the Haitian state. As a result of a history of corruption in the Haitian Government, management of relief funding streams is directed to, managed and dispersed by the Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission (IHRC). The estimated total earthquake relief and recovery costs for Haiti is $11.5 billion for the next ten years. Haitian leaders, bypassed in the relief process, allege lack of transparency by the IHRC and other agencies in accounting of the funds. Discussion:

The effects of corruption can be seen on an economic, social, and environmental levels— all of which Haiti has been experiencing. In TIs 2009 ranking, Haiti ranks168th out of 180 countries on the CPI.35 The problem, Haiti has been/is an elitist government run for the benefit of the wealthy at the expense of the nation as a whole. An assessment by the Government of Haiti (GOH), and international assessment, put the cost of recovery at $11.5 billion over the next decade.36 However, donor opinions are divided over whether Haitian officials should be entrusted with spending the money, since corruption is endemic in Haiti, and opportunities for corruption multiply after humanitarian disasters. Donors fear that Haiti’s government is too corrupt and weak to handle an enormous responsibility. The money will be routed thought an Interim Haiti Reconstruction Commission, consisting of a board made up of Haiti’s largest donors, and co-chaired by Haiti’s prime minister and an envoy from the international community. However Haitian leaders are upset the aid money is bypassing them in favor of UN organizations, US agencies, and NGOs. Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive says that the NGOs don’t tell them where the money’s coming from or how they are spending it.37 The NGOs are flooding the local economy with their spending yet, Tatiana Wah38 says she’s not sure she can see any monetary effects in aid. Corruption is occurring as the elite Haitians infiltrate relief agencies helping spending permeate throughout select areas of the economy using it on housing, security, transportation and entertainment.39Such actions provide a fertile social environment to advance and escalate social unrest and lack of faith in the government from its impoverished citizens.

Source Reliability: High Analytical Confidence: Medium Shannon Mae Connors

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Fig 4: Example of a rubber bearing enforced in GOC’s building codes

Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption Executive Summary: The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruption and the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within the Government of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes and initial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead to structures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong central government that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong central government for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention. Discussion:

Although the Chilean quake was more powerful than the one that devastated Haiti, the loss of human life was far less and the country's infrastructure remains largely intact. Donor governments providing relief money to Haiti know that the island nation suffered far more casualties and damage to their infrastructure due to corruption and the lack of preparedness that comes with it.40 On the global corruption index put out by Transparency International, Chile ranks 25th and Haiti 168th.41 In addition, the Government of Chile (GOC) forced builders to adhere to rigorous codes, while Haiti's corruption and carelessness left such regulation all but nonexistent.42 GOC enforces strong building codes due to Chile’s history of devastating earthquakes. In 1960, Chile suffered the worst earthquake in recorded history, a 9.5 magnitude quake that killed thousands.43 After a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 1985, Chile established strict building codes that mandated earthquake-proofing for new structures, requiring materials like rubber and features like counterweights be built into the architectural designs to allow buildings to bend and sway rather than break during temblors.44 Haiti, by contrast, allows buildings to rise with little if any input from engineers and sometimes bribes from GOH inspectors.45 Structures have scant reinforcement and are often set on weak foundations. This contrast was demonstrated when 13 of the 15 GOH ministry buildings toppled in the 12 January earthquake.46 Another difference between GOC and GOH is that GOC can divert money from more prosperous areas of its lucrative economy to aid one devastated region.47 Unlike Chile, Haiti does not have a lucrative economy due largely in part to GOH corruption. Haiti defenders argue that Chile can do things right because it's more developed. Opponents say that Haitians have it the other way around; Chile is more

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developed because it's doing things right.48 Hopefully the Chilean example will encourage donors to make the case that reconstruction efforts is an opportunity to do things correctly in Haiti.

Source Reliability: Medium Analytical Confidence: High Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is High due to a large amount of evidence supporting the estimate. Although all the sources are of medium reliability, the observable outcome between both disasters is vast. James E. Gallagher

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Elections in Haiti Needed for Change Executive Summary: In order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010 election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti will continue to mistrust the Haitian government. Discussion:

The GOH sustained heavy losses in the January 12th earthquake. Government buildings and many government officials were lost in the devastation. The response by the GOH to the earthquake was little due to poor relief infrastructure and corruption throughout the government. Current President Rene Preval announced that if elections cannot take place in November, he will remain in office pass February, when his term officially ends.49 Preval doesn’t want to leave the presidency if no candidate is voted to take over which could also lead to more instability within the government. Haitians have already voice that they want foreign powers to lead in the reconstruction of their country, but the International community wants the GOH to take responsibility showing that the GOH can handle issues with support from the International community.50 The people of Haiti have mistrusted their government for quite some time and they will continue until they see and feel that there is change and improvement. When President Preval announced that he would continue serving as president if no elections take place in November, 2,000 demonstrators protested outside the ruins of the National Palace.51 Officials who are trying to see that the elections take place in November are facing adversity due to the destruction of the election agency's headquarters and records and killed or displaced about 1.6 million voters.52 With a new president in office, the pressure put on by the people would reduce and a new beginning for Haiti will have taken a step forward in the right direction.

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: Medium Analytic Confidence: The analyst’s confidence is a medium due to the reports read and analyze. Elections would help Haiti in a step progressing forward, but if the elections cannot take place Preval will remain in office pass his official term end date. These civil protestors will continue and may eventually cause civil unrest in Haiti.

Max Korczyk

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Haiti: Short, MID AND Long Term

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Rainy Season Likely to Further Weaken GOH Executive Summary: The rainy season is likely to further weaken the government (GOH) as it continues to recover from the January earthquake. The GOH is working to improve and develop temporary housing. However, the GOH could face another disaster due to an ineffective government, poor conditions of the relocation camps, and mistrust between the government and people. Discussion:

The GOH has been ineffective for a long time now which can be seen by corruption within the government. The inability of the GOH to spend aid money it was given clearly indicates how ineffective the GOH is. Poor negotiations with private landowners to set up relocation camps for those in danger of the upcoming rainy season took months to settle and slowed down construction on temporary housing.53 Another key factor in showing that the GOH is weak is when the aid began to flow into Haiti to help the Haitians, much of the money went through the government, which had no relief control infrastructure set up and some government officials pocketed the money.54 The GOH has about 700,000 people to look after and find areas to relocate them to. Many Haitians who now live in the many tent-camp communities, set up outside Port-au-Prince, don’t want to leave. Rape, robbery, and fear keep displaced Haitians from leaving their families and friends behind and go the relocation camps the government has set up.55 Even with the terrible living conditions within these communities, people would rather stay put than move to areas in the rural part of the country. Another issue compelling the Haitians to stay put is that these new relocation camps set up by the government contain very little sanitary methods, which also allows for the threat of disease within the camps. The GOH have relocated about 7,500 people into new camps, but these camps are inadequate to support the people. Before the earthquake the Haitian people already had a sense of mistrust towards their government. Now as, the GOH tries to relocate two million Haitians who were displaced by the earthquake, as the rainy season looms closer. These displaced Haitians now live in 1,300 makeshift camps throughout Haiti and at least 29 refugee camps are in areas vulnerable to rains and flooding.56 The Haitians trust the US government more than their own, which will cause a problem in trying to relocate those who cannot believe their government is trying to save them from the rains.

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: High

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Max Korczyk GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs Unlikely Executive Summary: It is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordination and communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs are operating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetings with relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due to stresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This is causing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haiti becoming too dependent on foreign aid. Discussion:

According to a World Bank report on Haiti there are currently at least 10,000 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) operating in Haiti.57 This is the highest number per capita than any other country in the world. NGO organizations such as Partners in Health, the Red Cross, and UNICEF have been and continue to provide service for quake victims, however despite the good intentions there are problems within the NGO aid system.

NGO Refugees International58 went to Haiti in February to study how the overall relief effort was proceeding. They reported that coordination and communication between GOH and UN and international NGOs are missing, with both sectors operating along similar and disconnected lines.59 This is due to local organizations not being able to access the meetings at the UN compound in Port-au-Prince, where UN agencies and international NGOs have established task-specific groups for communication, discuss specific needs, and coordinate activities in order to avoid overlap and maximize outreach and coverage of a response.60 So far, the relief effort in Haiti has only manage to provide 270,000 people with basic shelters and more than 1 million people still have little to no access to food and water.61 The effectiveness of the NGOs relies on the rapid action of the UN and U.S. military escorts that are seen as essential for distribution and safety. The International Donors Conference, held in late March, said that Haiti has become too reliant on international NGOs to provide basic services to citizens and it is hurting the country more than it is helping it.62

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: Medium Shannon Mae Connors

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Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start Soon Executive Summary: It is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010 hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause further damage and heighten humanitarian need. Discussion:

The UN member states along with international partners have pledged $5.3 billion to Haiti over the next eighteen months, short-term assistance to begin Haiti’s path to long-term recovery. The plan for the next 18 months covers the end of the emergency period and includes preparation for projects to generate genuine restoration.63 Plans for short/ long-term reconstruction have been established; however the date to start recovery efforts has yet to be determined. Donors have pledged $9.9 billion towards an additional third year and beyond.64 None the less the start dates for short-term reconstruction efforts are not fixed. Asked when the reconstruction efforts would start, UN officials stated that reconstruction efforts begin when humanitarian aid ends. The international community must get the humanitarian relief side right as well Haiti won’t have the foundation for the successful longer term recovery. With the start of the rainy and hurricane season (a total of six months starting June 1 and ending November 30.)65 Humanitarian aid is crucial, says Edward Mulet.66 Researchers at the University of Colorado forecast the 2010 hurricane season to be above-average. 67 Research has shown the chance that the Caribbean as a whole will be hit by a major hurricane is 58 percent.68 This is above the normal 42 percent probability of the past century, according to their study conducted in December.69 Even if the hurricane does not strike Haiti the offset of the hurricanes rain and high winds will cause problems. If more devastation is done to Haiti and additional humanitarian aid is required, than it will take longer than planned to start on the short-term reconstruction.

Source Reliability: High Analytic Confidence: Medium Shannon Mae Connors

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Fig 5: Haitian man fights with a GOH police officer

Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead Reconstruction Executive Summary: It is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstruction efforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting the country's wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular support for Haitian President René Préval is dropping considerably, and an impending political crisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Préval government. Discussion:

Groups that once supported Haitian President, René Préval, are arming themselves against the Government of Haiti (GOH), putting the country in danger of further instability and political violence.70 Préval’s declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvious successor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing the country.71 Haitian anger is driven chiefly by the perception that what aid and money is entering Haiti is benefiting the country's wealthy minority instead of the poor who were largely affected by the quake.72 Haitian anger towards the GOH also stems from the increased efforts to relocate a number of the large tent camps, which is resented by many of the residents.73 An Oxfam survey indicates Haitians would prefer an “occupation" to manage the country's recovery rather than the GOH.74 The survey also revealed that fewer than 7% of Haitians wanted their government to manage reconstruction on its own. While nearly 25% thought that the GOH could work together with the UN, US and other NGOs, but nearly 40% wanted the control of Haiti reconstruction to fall to a foreign government.75 In a separate question fewer than half of the respondents believed that the international community would follow through on its pledge to rebuild Haiti. As far as most Haitians are concerned, the GOH has abandoned them.76

Source Reliability: Medium Analytical Confidence: Medium Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium due to the minimum amount of sources that support the estimate. The main source is almost a month old. However, current sources reaffirm the estimate.

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James E. Gallagher

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US Forces Highly Likely to Return to Haiti

Executive Summary: Due to the upcoming hurricane season and political instability, it is highly likely that the US will redeploy into Haiti. The US has aided Haiti through military and financial support. With the June 1 US withdraw of military forces fast approaching, the GOH will be led by the MINUSTAH and the National Haitian Police force, which will further press instability throughout the country. Discussion:

The rainy season began on 1 May in Haiti and certain camps of displaced Haitians are flooded. The rainfall has already reached four inches in Port-au-Prince.77 With a limited amount of time and inadequate command and control, the GOH will not be able to support the people of Haiti, which will cause the US military to redeploy into Haiti. Also weather forecasters have predicted a 2010 hurricane season will be tough on Haiti through a predicted 10 storms.78 Many people who still reside in tent communities around Port-au-Prince have nowhere else to go due to the government’s inefficiency in locating new areas, not in danger of the rains and upcoming hurricane season. Shelters are being built in order to protect the people from hurricane conditions but with little time and number of shelters to build for those living in the tent communities will not be ready in time.79 Haitian President Rene Preval announced that if the upcoming elections in November don’t take place, he will remain in office pass his official end term date.80 This was received by the Haitian population with anger as demonstrators protested outside the ruins of the National Palace which had to be quelled down with help of riot police.81 The people believed that President Preval responded too slowly to the earthquake and the aftermath that ensured.82 This pressure on the government will lead to more instability in a weak government which will struggle to maintain order. Also looking into perspective is the International community impact if the US has to return to Haiti. The International Community has pledged USD 5 billion over the next two years.83

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: Medium Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence is medium. Due to limited resources on International impact on the International Community if US returns to Haiti, analytic confidence is medium on what will be the international impact on the IC will be. Max Korczyk

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Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without Effective Leadership Executive Summary: If Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that long-term reconstruction and stabilization will improve the state. Due to disregard in the past the international community plans to observe long- term reconstruction that is predicted to last for 10 years fallowing 18 months of short-term reconstruction. The Haitian state cannot recover on its own due to extreme structural vulnerability. Haitian leaders will require the help of the UN and international organizations to help create an effective leadership. In addition the UN will continue to focus on humanitarian assistance to further a stabilize Haiti. Discussion:

The aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti exposed the countries extreme structural vulnerability as a state. In the past, billions of dollars given for aid did not make a considerable difference in helping Haiti.84 At the International Donors Conference in March over 60 countries and institutions pledged to help assist Haiti during its long-term recovery process.85 To assure safety of the $9.9 billion yielded to Haiti long-term reconstruction an anti-corruption unit within the Interim Commission.86 It is important that during reconstruction the Haitian leaders and people assume responsibility for their nation. This way Haiti can become a self reliant state in the future. For this to happen the GOH will be closely coordinating with the UN and IC. The stability of the Haitian state will not succeed without effective leadership from its people, and to further the reconstruction the EU role will be secondary.87 The UN will be also expected to continue to focus on the immediate humanitarian assistance in Haiti.88 Help providing a stable environment for Haitians and allow for long-term rebuilding efforts.

Source Reliability: High

Shannon Mae Connors

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Web 2.0 Likely Crucial in Future Disaster Information Dissemination Executive Summary: Due to recent natural and man-made disasters it is highly likely that the use of Web 2.0 is playing a pivotal role in current and future communication updates and future information collection. Social media and social networking platforms are increasing in popularity and use. Recent major emergencies resulted in official and press reporting utilization of Web 2.0 tools to support consequence management operations. Web 2.0 is a decision support tool that provides decision makers the ability to act in real-time/ near real-time there by reducing the reaction time after the disaster. Discussion:

Web 2.0 is web-based networks that allow its users to interact with other users or to change website content, in contrast to non-interactive websites where users are limited to the passive viewing of information that is provided to them.89 has become one of the first places where millions react to large-scale catastrophes. A presentation by Jeannett Sutton at the 2009 World Conference of Disaster Management gives thorough data about information dissemination though social media and networking systems.90 Through a survey Sutton and fellow researchers91 found that people went to Web 2.0 sources for accurate and up-to-date information.92 Since the introduction of Web 2.0 social platforms continue to grow in popularity and are used around the world in natural disaster cases like the 2009 earthquake in China, and the Southern California wildfires. The Haiti earthquake in January highlighted the importance of social platforms in major emergencies. Over 24 hours after the quake, networkers and news organizations turned to Web 2.0 tools to share and gather information on Twitter93, YouTube94, Skype95, and Facebook96. The government and mainstream news organizations are now using social platforms to collect information in the aftermath of disasters. Government organizations like FEMA have been engaging in Web 2.0 tools nationwide as part of its mission to prepare the nation for disasters. DOS is looking towards utilizing social platforms to search for US citizens in disaster stricken countries. These social platforms are valuable because there’s a lot of information flowing between people because it’s a decentralized network. These systems are able to transmit information directly from those who are experiencing the disaster in real time and to those who can provide help in real time, without editing or delay.

Source Reliability: High Shannon Mae Connors

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 35


US Efforts Likely to Continue after Pull-Out Executive Summary: Despite the US military pull out of Haiti on June 1st, it is likely US forces will continue efforts in Haiti. With certain military forces in Haiti providing humanitarian efforts, continuation of financial support, and political support, US efforts towards Haiti will bring Haiti closer to a sense of stability. Discussion:

1 June is the official pull-put date for remaining US troops in Haiti.97 National Guard units will perform humanitarian efforts such as reconstruction projects and medical training assistance throughout a five month period.98 This step by the United States Government (USG) demonstrates that the military mission is over and the humanitarian mission begins. Also another success would be the flexibility of the US military as they deployed 22,000 soldiers to Haiti in the beginning.99 The US Congress has been working to pass bills creating more financial support towards Haiti. With bills intended on supporting trade with Haiti and promoting industries with Haiti.100 Along with bills and trade agreements the USG will continue overseeing aid and humanitarian efforts in Haiti. USG plans to create an international trust fund for Haiti which would support investment in infrastructure including the development of electricity grids, roads, water and sanitation facilities, and reforestation initiatives in Haiti.101

Haitian elections were suppose to take place in February, but were cancelled due to devastation caused by the earthquake. Haitian elects have been schedule for November of this year, but the GOH is struggling to obtain voting records and distribute ballots to the 1.6 displaced Haitians.102 To help support the Haitians in the electoral system, the US along with the International Community pledged technical, logistical and material support to help Haiti hold timely elections.103

Source Reliability: Medium Analytic Confidence: Medium Analytic Confidence: Analyst confidence is medium due to sources which were researched.

Max Korczyk

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Scene Setter

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Fig 6: The current head of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) Edmund Mulet

Meeting with Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) Edmond Mulet

Scene Setter: Since 1993, the UN has played a key role in providing security and legitimacy to the Government of Haiti (GOH). In September 1993, the UN Security Council established its first peacekeeping operation in the country. However, due to a lack of cooperation with Haitian military authorities, the operation was not successful. Throughout the late 1990’s, there were several UN peacekeeping missions deployed to Haiti. Initially, these missions were tasked with restoring a democratic government. However, due to continuing political crisis and a lack of stability in the country, serious reforms never took hold. Following the 12 January earthquake that devastated Haiti, all progress made by previous UN peacekeeping missions was lost and MINUSTAH’s headquarters was destroyed. Furthermore, the mission's chief, Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, was killed in the quake. With the death of Hédi Annabi, the former head of MINUSTAH and current Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Edmond Mulet, became the organization's Special Representative and interim head of MINUSTAH.104 With US military forces disengaging from Haiti on 1 June 2010, MINUSTAH will take the lead role in providing security and humanitarian aid in Haiti. MINUSTAH’s main objective is to maintain stability in the region and assist the Haitian Nation Police in providing security within the country.

Topic: The objective of the meeting is to discuss the US role in Haiti after formal military operations end on 1 June. Another topic will be how US and MINUSTAH forces can create a legitimate, self sufficient democracy in Haiti that is not constantly relying on foreign governments for aid or support. Short Biography of Edmund Mulet: Edmund Mulet is a Guatemalan diplomat who was educated in Guatemala, Canada, the US and Switzerland.105 He is currently the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINUSTAH. Mulet assumed the position of acting head of MINUSTAH in the immediate aftermath of the 2010 Haiti earthquake in which the previous head of mission, Hédi Annabi of Tunisia, died. Prior to the Haitian earthquake,

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 39


Mulet was the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and Head of the Office of Operations since August 2007. Formerly, he was Guatemala's ambassador to the European Union, the Kingdom of Belgium and Luxembourg.106 Prior to this, he was a member of Guatemala’s National Congress (GNC) for approximately 12 years and served one term as president of the GNC. During Mulet’s years in the Guatemalan legislature, he was involved in the Central American peace process and the Guatemalan peace negotiations.107

Talking Points:

The US thanks MINUSTAH for their efforts to help the Haitian people and for MINUSTAHs continued work in providing security and legitimacy to the GOH.

The US wants to assure a smooth transition between US military forces and MINSTAH when logistical, security and humanitarian responsibilities are transferred over to MINUSTAH/UN forces on 1 June.

We want to emphasize that the internal problems within the GOH must be rooted out if there is any hope for Haiti to become a legitimate self sufficient democracy. Although the US wants to support Haiti, we do not want Haiti to always be reliant on foreign powers for aid or support.

We want to encourage MINUSTAH to progressively wean the reliance of GOH security forces away from MINUSTAH and foreign security forces so that GOH security forces can become self reliant and not dependent upon foreign powers.

The US wants to encourage MINUSTAH to crack down on the recent spike in organized crime and gang violence. The most likely solution to this problem is via humanitarian aid to areas that have not yet been adequately reached. It is hoped that humanitarian aid will reduce the perceived need for gangs and reduce crimes.

We are worried about the recent spike in the number of humanitarian workers who are kidnapped and held for ransom. We propose that MINUSTAH and GOH forces provide more adequate security for these humanitarian workers.

James E. Gallagher

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Fig 5: Major General Simeon G. Tromitas, Commander of Joint Task Force- Haiti

Secretary of State Meeting with Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas, Newly Anointed Commander of Joint Task Force-Haiti

Scene Setter: The major earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January left the island nation reeling in destruction of its buildings and a death toll in the thousands. With the government of Haiti (GOH) inadequate to handle the rescue and recovery operations, the US along with the International Community came to Haiti’s aid. The US sent in military forces to help in logistics and relief and recovery operations. The UN along with US came together in March to hold a Donor Conference for Haiti, in which the International Community pledged financial support to Haiti. Now four months after the earthquake and US has steadily been reducing the troops in Haiti, with the official pull-out date set for June first. The US will use 500 National Guards to continue humanitarian efforts in Haiti, in a new operation called “New Horizons”. Topic: The objective of the meeting is to discuss the US role in Haiti after formal military operations end on 1 June. Short Biography of Maj. Gen. Simeon G. Trombitas: Before being appointed to commander of the Joint Task Force-Haiti, Major General Trombitas was commander of the US South Army since November ninth of last year. Before that, he was the special assistant to the commanding general of Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, N.C.108 Simeon G. Trombitas graduated from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, New York, in 1978 with a bachelor in science.109 His first assignment was with the 2nd Armored Division. He has commanded the U.S. Special Operations Command in Korea and the U.S. Military Group in Colombia.110

Talking Points:

The Louisiana National Guard forces remaining in Haiti will help out in humanitarian and reconstruction efforts.

The other US National Guard forces will participate in aviation security and work together with the Haitian Police forces.

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The roles of the United Nations MINUSTAH and the Haitian Police Force

will be critical in assuming responsibilities once the remaining US military forces pull-out.

It is critical for MINUSTAH and the remaining US military forces after 1 June to adequately coordinate and communicate to provide effective security and humanitarian efforts.

The operation “New Horizons” covers humanitarian efforts. Is there a possibility that these National Guards forces will stay beyond the end date of the operation which concludes in September.

Max Korczyk

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Sir John Holmes, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator

Secretary of State Meeting with Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Sir John Holmes Scene Setter: Immediately following the 12 January earthquake in Haiti, the UNEP/Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Joint Environment Unit was monitoring the situation closely and teams were on standby to assist with the forthcoming recovery efforts. OCHA held and organized a chaired Member States briefing on the Haiti Revised Humanitarian Appeal on 22 February.111 On behalf of the Humanitarian Coordinator, OCHA also manages the Emergency Relief Response Fund for Haiti. As of 24 February there are currently 37 OCHA staff members in Haiti that specializes in humanitarian affairs, information management, needs and assessments, donor relations and reporting.112 These staff members monitor and update on the humanitarian and recovery efforts. Topic: The objective of the meeting is to discuss the current humanitarian affairs and the emergency relief taking place in Haiti. Short Biography of Sir John Holmes: Awarded a knighthood in 1999, Sir Johns Holmes is a career diplomat who was born in Preston, in the north of England, and received his higher education from Balliol College, Oxford.113 He was appointed on 1 March 2007 as the Under-Secretary- General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, by Secretary –General Ban Ki-moon. Before his appointment Mr. Holmes was the British Ambassador in Paris from October 2001 to February 2007. He served in a wide range of posts and roles during his career in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) since 1973, and was appointed as a temporary second secretary at the British Embassy in Moscow returning to London in 1887 as Assistant Head of the Soviet Department in the FCO.114 In 1995 he was head of the European Union Department in the FCO but then switched to become the Private Secretary (Overseas Affairs) and Diplomatic Advisor to former Prime Minister John Major.115

Talking Points:

The relocation of displaced people to areas at high risk for flooding. The efficiency of emergency shelters being built to withstand the upcoming

hurricane season for the 1.2 million homeless and displaced Haitian people.

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Collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Agriculture cluster members on seed distributions for helping the agricultural sector.

The areas of Haiti that do not have health care coverage and are still being

identified.

The use of Emergency Telecommunications (ETC) between humanitarian work areas and their coverage.

Shannon Mae Connors

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 44



Annex 3

Earthquake Affected Areas And population Movement in Haiti

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Annex 4

USG HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO HAITI FOR THE EARTHQUAKE

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Annex 5

Who Haitians think Should Carry Out Reconstruction

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Who Haitians think Should Carry Out Reconstruction

Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval

This survey was carried out by Oxfam. The Sample size was 1,700 displaced Haitians.

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Haitians that thought the GOHcould work together with thelocal authorities andcommunity organizations

Haitians that wanted thecontrol of Haiti reconstructionto fall to a foreign government

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Annex 6

Location of Congested camps in Port-Au-Prince and possible

spontaneous settlement sites

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Annex 7

Location of WFP Food Distribution Centers in Port-Au-Prince

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 53


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1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 54



Annex 8

The location of the Oil slick in comparison the gulf of Mexico

current

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 55


Area of the oil spill as of May 4 2010

Source: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/definitions/loopcurrent.gif

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 56



Annex 9

Contact INFORMATION

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 57


Contact Information

Please feel free to contact the analysts with any questions or comments concerning this briefing book.

James E. Gallagher

E: [email protected]

T: 240-432-3489

A: 119 Driscoll Way Gaithersburg MD 20878

Shannon Connors


T: 703-627-9230

A: 7712 Otaku Lane Flagstaff Arizona 86001

Max Korczyk


T: 815-388-2008

A: 1715 Bull Ridge Drive McHenry Illinois 60060

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 58



Annex 10

Acknowledgments

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 59


Acknowledgments

We want to thank Professor Mills for guiding us through the process of creating this guidebook. Without him, this briefing book would have never been possible. Thank you.

-The Department of State Team-

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 60



Annex 11

Imagery Sourcing

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 61


Imagery Sourcing

Figure 1: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/05/08/article-1275355-094A753D000005DC-436_468x286.jpg Figure 2:http://i.pbase.com/g6/82/643382/2/74706503.Ywkcw7s2.jpg Figure 3: http://www.dominionpaper.ca/files/dominion-img/p76.jpg Figure 4:http://trendsupdates.com/the-worlds-biggest-earth-quake-proof-building-is-an-airport/ Figure 5:http://www.sfbayview.com/wp-content/uploads/haiti-school-collapse-relative-vs-police-110908-by-ramon-espinosa-ap1.jpg Figure6: http://downloads.unmultimedia.org/cms/radio/content/uploads/2009/12/full/mullet.jpg Figure 7: http://www.dodlive.mil/files/2010/03/20100331_Trombitas_photo-120x150.jpg Figure 8: http://worldradio.ch/wrs/bm~pix/holmes-gaza~s600x600.jpg

1 7 M a y 2 0 1 0 P a g e | 62


Endnotes


Annex 12

Endnotes

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1 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai 2 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai 3 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai 4 http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=3033389#ixzz0o3rkGiai 5http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/15/AR2010051503543.html 6http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/15/AR2010051503543.html 7 http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn 8 http://cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2010/05/13/ac.markey.oil.spill.cnn 9http://www.vancouversun.com/news/cleanup+effort+employs+small+city/3031650/story.html#ixzz0o3QGCduL 10 http://www.military-technologies.net/2010/05/05/bp-requests-for-military-technology-to-contain-oil-spill/ 11http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/0510/Admiral_Allen_says_the_entire_Gulf_pretty_much_has_to_be_on_guard_as_oil_spill_could_worsen.html?showall 12http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jbi5uWbOVPuqck1GxL0Y1baSG58AD9FIQRK00 13 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/oil-spill-imperils-gulf-coast-fishing-industry-update1-.html 14http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current 15http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs49_04-09-2010.pdf 16http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_assistance/countries/haiti/template/fs_sr/fy2010/haiti_eq_fs50_04-16-2010.pdf 17 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground 18 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/haiti-ground 19 http://www.heritagekonpa.com/Abductions%20for%20ransom%20soar%20in%20Haiti.htm 20http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current 21http://www4.janes.com/subscribe/sentinel/CACS_doc_view.jsp?Sent_Country=Haiti&Prod_Name=CACS&K2DocKey=/content1/janesdata/sent/cacsu/haits010.htm@current 22 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-responsibility-protect-refugees 23 http://www.refugeesinternational.org/policy/field-report/dominican-republic-haiti-and-us-shared-responsibility-protect-refugees 24 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw 25 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gV04s7vQYfbITT2t_YKym-ePvYaw 26 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-plans-June-exit 27 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2010/0413/As-Michelle-Obama-visits-Haiti-US-military-plans-June-exit 28 http://media-newswire.com/release_1118144.html 29 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL 30 http://newsblaze.com/story/20100421152621stat.nb/topstory.html 31 http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/03/31/haiti.donors/index.html 32 http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=51329 33http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FH0JBG1 34 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8580641.stm 35 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8502616.stm

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36 http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100331/FOREIGN/703309889/1135 37 http://www.3news.co.nz/Haiti---wheres-the-aid-money-going/tabid/417/articleID/145000/Default.aspx 38 Tatiana Wah is a Haitian planning expert at Columbia University who is living in Petionville and working as an advisor to Haiti’s government. 39 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/world/americas/28haitipoor.html 40 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html 41 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR 42 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html 43 http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti 44 http://theweek.com/article/index/200198/Quake_comparison_Chile_vs_Haiti 45 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html 46 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html 47 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR 48 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968576,00.html#ixzz0nbXTQItR 49 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK00 50 http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2822043320100328 51http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT 52http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT 53 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/19/heavy-rains-sweeping-away-screaming-haitians-homeless-camps/ 54 http://www.probeinternational.org/foreign-aid/rebuilding-haiti-depends-redeveloping-haiti%E2%80%99s-government 55 http://www.worldvision.org/content.nsf/about/20100212-haiti-survivors 56 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/16/AR2010031603831.html 57 http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place 58 Refugees International advocates for lifesaving assistance and protection for displaced people and promotes solutions to displacement crises. http://www.refintl.org/who-we-are 59 http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti 60 http://reason.com/blog/2010/03/12/ngos-falling-short-in-haiti 61 http://www.counterpunch.org/smith02242010.html 62 http://www.mantlethought.org/content/haiti-putting-ngos-their-place 63 http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf 64 http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/03/139336.htm 65 The Atlantic hurricane season is from 1 June to 30 November, however the Atlantic Oceanographic and Metrological Laboratory (AOML) states, “hurricanes have occurred outside of these six months, but these dates were selected to encompass over 97% of tropical activity.” http://travelwithkids.about.com/gi/o.htm?zi=1/XJ&zTi=1&sdn=travelwithkids&cdn=travel&tm=219&f=00&su=p974.3.168.ip_&tt=13&bt=0&bts=1&st=24&zu=http%3A//www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/G1.html 66http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Haiti_humanitarian_need_competes_with_recovery_plan.html?cid=8579240 67 Colorado State University's (CSU) top hurricane expert William Gray and team forecast the Atlantic hurricane season. http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw 68 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw 69 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iXGQ1L9LOEqjUqEzJUs8ABF4lGjw 70http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval

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71http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK00 72http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval 73http://article.wn.com/view/2010/04/11/Haiti_begins_relocating_quake_victims_ahead_of_rains/ 74http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval 75http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval 76http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/18/haiti-tension-gang-violence-preval 77 http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp 78 http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/31508/rainy-season-in-full-swing-for.asp 79 http://content.usatoday.com/communities/kindness/post/2010/04/as-haitis-hurricane-season-approaches-international-aid-organizations-rush-to-provide-emergency-shelter-kits/1 80 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwf2qI3IKG5boz7QbfojxijnkDgQD9FH3VK00 81http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CB_HAITI_PROTESTS?SITE=RIPAW&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT 82 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28214256.htm 83 http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2010-03-31/un-donor-conference-haiti-reconstruction-aid 84 http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-395986 85 http://www.haiticonference.org/Haiti_Action_Plan_ENG.pdf 86 Anti-corruption unit co-chairs are Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive and former President Clinton acting as liaison for the UN. 87 http://www.euractiv.com/en/foreign-affairs/helping-build-haitis-long-term-future-analysis-395986 88 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther-brimmer/rebuilding-haiti-a-global_b_528790.html88 Endnotes 89 According to Prashant Sharma, Web 2.0 is web-based communities, hosted services, web applications, social-networking sites, video-sharing sites, wikis, blogs, mashups, and folksonomies. http://www.techpluto.com/web-20-services/ 90 http://www.emergencymgmt.com/safety/The-Public-Uses-Social-Networking.html 91 Palen and Irina Shklovs, postdoctoral researchers at the University of California at Irvine. 92 This survey was developed for the evacuation of San Diego during the Southern California wildfires of 2007. 93 Twitter, is a social networking and microblogging service that enables its users to send and read messages known as tweets. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/15/hacker-exposes-private-twitter-documents/?hpw. 94 YouTube, the hugely popular video-sharing site owned by Google. http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/worldagenda/2010/01/100122_worldagenda_haiti_monitoring.shtml 95 Skype, is a software application that allows users to make voice calls over the Internet. Can be with or without video. http://about.skype.com/ 96 Facebook, is a social media and networking site. 97 http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5idZiVQhHcyG1gpBjzXaAmmk4_OtAD9FIFPL 98 http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2010/05/sec-100513-afps02.htm 99 http://www.army.mil/-news/2010/05/13/39011-joint-task-force-haiti-set-to-complete-mission-june-1/ 100 http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100507/pl_afp/haitiquakeuspoliticsaid_20100507142809 101 http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20100415-264384/US-Congress-passes-Haiti-debt-relief-bill 102 http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/may/11/haiti-protesters-blast-earthquake-response/ 103 http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-106487.html 104 http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33499&Cr=haiti&Cr1= 105 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm

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106 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm 107 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2010/sga1228.doc.htm 108 http://www.sofmag.com/wp/2010/04/trombitas-takes-command-of-jtf-haiti/ 109 http://www.defense.gov/Blog_files/Blog_assets/20100330_Trombitas_bio.pdf 110 http://blogs.nyu.edu/blogs/agc282/zia/TROMBITAS,%20Simeon%20G.%20Brig.%20Gen.-4.pdf 111 http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/unep/126344964565.htm 112 http://ochaonline.un.org/tabid/6412/language/en-US/Default.aspx 113 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx 114 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx 115 http://ochaonline.un.org/OCHAHome/AboutUs/TheUSGERC/tabid/5844/language/en-US/Default.aspx

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