Haiti Chile Earthquake

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  1. 1. 17 May 2010P age |0 Department of StateDisaster Task ForcePrepared for THE SECRETARY OF STATEGeneva Summit 2010|T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  2. 2. 17 May 2010 P age |1PrefaceThe National Security Council (NSC) has directed that the Department of State,a member of the Disaster Task Force (DTF), to prepare a briefing book for the Secretaryof State (SecState) in preparation for the upcoming Geneva Summit. The DTF is toproject out to the end of 2011. The Department of State (DOS) is to address thefollowing issues in the tasking below. The tasking is not inclusive, and is subject tochange as circumstances dictate.TaskingIn mid-May 2010 the Secretary of State (SECSTATE) will attend a special UNmeeting in Geneva, which will address the international response to actual and potentialnatural and man-made disasters. The National Security Council (NSC) has directed thata dedicated Disaster Task Force (DTF) be established to provide current intelligenceand status reports, both on current international issues and on potential domesticproblems, to include possible related terrorist threats. The DTF consists of teams fromDepartment of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DOS), Department of HomelandSecurity (DHS), the Counter Terrorism Center (CTC), and a red team to focus onvulnerabilities both in the US and abroad. Teams have been tasked with preparing theSECSTATEs Briefing Books on these issues Of particular importance will beproviding analysis of the broad range of responses to recent humanitarian disasters,including Haiti, Chile, Swine Flu; US preparedness for similar events; and terroristcapabilities and intentions of inciting humanitarian crises; In addition to certainassigned taskings, analysts will determine, through research, additional important topicsthat may engage the SECSTATE during this meeting. Current IssueThe oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is the current issue that the DOS is preparingfor the SECSTATE. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te|
  3. 3. 17 May 2010 P age |2Department of StateDisaster TASK ForceOverall Forecast |T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  4. 4. 17 May 2010 P age |3Overall ForecastExecutive Summary:After ten weeks of open source research and analysis of the 12 January 2010 Haitiearthquake, it is highly likely that Haiti will remain unstable due to corruption withinthe Government of Haiti (GOH) a lack of coordination and communication betweenforeign powers and the GOH in the relief and reconstruction efforts. This estimate isdue to Haitis unstable government, which is riddled with corruption. The US military isseen as the lead player in the relief and reconstruction efforts in Haiti. With thedeparture of the US military on 1 June, the Haitian populace fears that humanitarianefforts and security will drastically decrease. There is large distrust between the Haitianpeople and the GOH. Ren Prval, the President of Haiti, is rapidly becoming unpopularamong the Haitian people due to his perceived corruption and lack of ability to rebuildHaiti. The combination of these issues contributes to the unlikelihood that the GOH willsucceed in rebuilding its country.Discussion:As the date for US military withdrawal from Haiti draws near, displaced Haitiansworry that the GOH lacks the ability to control its internal affairs and is in apermanent state of instability. There is a lack of coordination and communicationbetween the US, UN, NGOs and the GOH, reconstruction and relief efforts remaininefficient. With President Ren Prval postponing presidential and legislativeelections in the country, Haitians are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with theGOH. Groups that once supported Haitian President Ren Prval are armingthemselves against the GOH, putting the country in danger of further instability andpolitical violence. Prvals declining legitimacy and the lack of any obvioussuccessor for a smooth handover of political power is further destabilizing thecountry.According to NGOs and the UN, armed gangs and displaced Haitians continue tocommit violence against civilians. In some instances these gangs have supplanted theGOH in certain neighborhoods that are absent of humanitarian aid and are now incontrol. With security issues continuing to mount in Haiti, experts suggest that it isinevitable that the US military will redeploy to Haiti. The date for US militarydisengagement could change should a new crisis emerge, especially with so manyHaitians still homeless as the rainy season looms. After the US military forceswithdraw from Haiti on 1 June, the United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti(MINUSTAH) will provide overall security within Haiti. However, the HaitianNational Police, with the oversight of MINUSTAH, is to provide security withinPort-Au-Prince, the capital city. However, the GOH police and military forces areunder-strength for the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained andriddled with corruption.|T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  5. 5. 17 May 2010P age |4The rainy season that officially began on 1 May, has displaced several Haitians fromcertain tent camps. With a limited amount of time along with inadequate commandand control of the situation, the GOH is unable to relocate Haitians to designatedcamps outside the capital city. The GOHs lack of control and legitimacy amongdisplaced Haitians could potentially force the US to redeploy the US military back toHaiti.James E. GallagherMax KorczykShannon Mae Connors|T he Depa r tment of Sta te |
  6. 6. 17 May 2010P age |5 Key FindingsUSG Likely To Takeover Oil Slick Relief Efforts In The Gulf Of MexicoDue to BPs recently unsuccessful efforts to contain the oil slick, the USG is likely totake over relief operations in the Gulf of Mexico. With a highly sophisticated industrythat has large levels of revenues and research capacity, the USG continues to criticizeBP for not doing enough. Furthermore, BP is uncertain as to when the leaking well willultimately be plugged.1 BPs most recent effort to stop the oil slick failed, and theleaking well continues to hit the gulf coast region environmentally and economically.2US legislators remain frustrated that the problem has not been fixed yet a month afterthe deepwater horizon rig exploded. However, BP continues to openly state that theywill pay all expenditures and compensations.Haiti: Post Earthquake Security Highly Likely To Be An Ongoing IssueIt is highly unlikely that the Government of Haiti (GOH) will be able to provide longterm security within their country. GOH police and military forces are under-strengthfor the size of the population, under-resourced, poorly trained and riddled withcorruption. A sudden withdrawal of US and MINUSTAH forces would furtherdestabilize the country. Additionally, with the escape of 4000 prisoners from thenational prison, crime and gang activity is expected to increase, especially around thedistribution stations of food, water and medical aid.Inefficient GOH Response Highly Likely Due To Corruption:The massive loss of human life from the Haiti quake is highly likely due to corruptionand the lack of preparedness that comes with it. Due to corruption within theGovernment of Haiti (GOH) there was a lack of preparedness in building codes andinitial response. Compared to Chile, Haiti had nonexistent building codes that lead tostructures that would easily topple. Furthermore, Haiti lacks the strong centralgovernment that Chile posses. Unlike Chile who relied on their strong centralgovernment for assistance, Haiti relied on external intervention. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te|
  7. 7. 17 May 2010P age |6Elections in Haiti Needed for ChangeIn order to inhibit the current political instability within Haiti, it is likely the 2010election will take place. For without the upcoming elections the people of Haiti willcontinue to mistrust the Haitian government.Haitians Increasingly Unlikely to Support GOH Lead ReconstructionIt is highly unlikely the Haitian populace will strongly support GOH lead reconstructionefforts. Haitians perceive that reconstruction money coming into Haiti as benefiting thecountrys wealthy minority rather than the vast mass of quake victims. Popular supportfor Haitian President Ren Prval is dropping considerably, and an impending politicalcrisis is rapidly corroding the legitimacy in the Prval government.Successful Reconstruction Unlikely After US Military Disengages FromHaitiSuccessful humanitarian, reconstruction, and security efforts are unlikely to succeed inHaiti after the US military withdraws from the country on 1 June. UN, MINUSTAH,GOH and NGOs are collectively uncoordinated and highly inefficient in carrying outroutine tasks. However, a contingency of 500 US reserves and a small USAID teamoffer a sense of hope among the Haitian populace.GOH/UN Cooperation With NGOs UnlikelyIt is unlikely that relief action will be carried out effectively due to lack of coordinationand communication between NGOs, the UN and GOH. Nearly 10,000 NGOs areoperating in Haiti alongside the UN and US military. Communication and meetingswith relief coordinators is almost impossible because of mass un-organization due tostresses over leadership and where certain organizations can or cannot operate. This iscausing the NGOs and GOH/UN to give more aid than is necessary resulting in Haitibecoming too dependent on foreign aid. |T he Depa r tment of Sta te|
  8. 8. 17 May 2010P age |7Short-term Reconstruction Not Likely To Start SoonIt is likely that the short-term reconstruction in Haiti will not begin until the end of theAtlantic hurricane season towards the end of November 2010. In order for the short-term reconstruction begins humanitarian efforts in Haiti need to end. The 2010hurricane season has been forecasted to be above-average and may cause furtherdamage and heighten humanitarian need.Long-Term Reconstruction Unlikely Effective Without EffectiveLeadershipIf Haiti does not set up an effective leadership it is unlikely that lo