growing preferences for higher density residential environments

Growing Preferences For Higher Density Growing Preferences For Higher Density Residential EnvironmentsResidential Environments

Growing Preferences For Higher Density Growing Preferences For Higher Density Residential EnvironmentsResidential Environments

DOWELL MYERS

School of Policy, Planning, and Development

the boom ahead

RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY THE FUNDERS NETWORK RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY THE FUNDERS NETWORK FOR SMART GROWTH AND LIVABILITYFOR SMART GROWTH AND LIVABILITY

RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY THE FUNDERS NETWORK RESEARCH SUPPORTED BY THE FUNDERS NETWORK FOR SMART GROWTH AND LIVABILITYFOR SMART GROWTH AND LIVABILITY

HIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCESHIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCESHIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCESHIGHER DENSITY PREFERENCES THE BOOM AHEADTHE BOOM AHEADTHE BOOM AHEADTHE BOOM AHEAD

Contributing researchersContributing researchers

Elizabeth Gearin

Ajay Garde

Tridib Banerjee

Dowell Myers

Boom in Higher Density Preference?Boom in Higher Density Preference?Boom in Higher Density Preference?Boom in Higher Density Preference?

Many trends support expanded preferencesin future for more central, urban residence

Current preference for compact residential choices rises sharply with age

The Baby Boom generation is crossing age 45 and dominates growth in other age groups

Dowell MyersUSC School of Policy, Planning, and Development


Conventional Beliefs of Housing PreferencesConventional Beliefs of Housing PreferencesConventional Beliefs of Housing PreferencesConventional Beliefs of Housing Preferences

American housing consumers favor a housing product that satisfies five major criteria:


suburban fringe location

single-family detached unit style

location within a low-density neighborhood

ease of automobile use, including driving

and parking

and lowest cost given these criteria



really?


General Trends Toward More Compact General Trends Toward More Compact Residential PreferencesResidential Preferences

General Trends Toward More Compact General Trends Toward More Compact Residential PreferencesResidential Preferences

Mounting Traffic Congestion

Decreased Crime

Rising Immigration and Enhanced Urban Vitality

Growth of Café Culture

Fashionable Design of Higher-Density for the Middle Class

Positive Examples Created by Growing Densification



How to Measure Current Preferences for More Compact Residence?





84%

74%

47%

42%

32%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Prefer single family (SF) detachedhome

Small SF, but with short commute

Dense SF, but with parks&greenbelt

Suburb SF w/backyard but longcommute

Condo/Apt--walk to shops and transit

California Housing Preferences, 2001California Housing Preferences, 2001California Housing Preferences, 2001California Housing Preferences, 2001

Source: PPIC Special Survey on Land Use Issues, October 2001

The NAHB Trade-Off QuestionThe NAHB Trade-Off QuestionThe NAHB Trade-Off QuestionThe NAHB Trade-Off Question

Consider the following hypothetical choice:

Your income is high enough to purchase a $150,000 home.

You have two options:


buying a $150,000 townhouse in an urban settingclose to public transportation, work and shopping.

Or, you could purchase a larger, detached single-family home in a suburban area, with longer commutes to work.


Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the CityPercent Preferring a Townhouse in the City


Percent Preferring a Townhouse in the City

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age GroupNAHB, 1999


Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today

Percent Calling Factor Very Important Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Todayif Buying a Home Today


Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age Group

Crime Rate

School District

HighwayAccess

Location toShopping

PublicTransportation

NAHB, 1999

Percent Calling Factor Very Important if Buying a Home Today

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Age Group

Crime Rate

School District

HighwayAccess

Location toShopping

PublicTransportation

NAHB, 1999


Growth in Mover HouseholdsGrowth in Mover HouseholdsWho Own After Move, 1990-2010Who Own After Move, 1990-2010


-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

1990-95

1995-00

2000-05

2005-10



bottom line


Combining These FactorsCombining These Factors


Current Preferences by Agex

Aging Baby Boomers

=

Conservative Estimate of New Demand


……And if Current Preferences ExpandAnd if Current Preferences Expand


General Trendx

Current Preference by Agex

Aging Baby Boomers

=

Expanded Estimate of New Demand


Annual Growth in Active Mover Home BuyersAnnual Growth in Active Mover Home Buyers


–10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1990-2000 2000-2010 Ex 2000-2010

Prefer Non-compact

Age 45+ Prefer Compact

Under Age 45Prefer Compact



Minority Dictatorship of New ConstructionMinority Dictatorship of New Construction


Households who dictate new construction

Everyone else living in existing housing

For more information ....For more information ....

Forthcoming article:Forthcoming article:

"Current Preferences and Future Demand for "Current Preferences and Future Demand for Denser Residential Environments," Denser Residential Environments,"

Housing Policy DebateHousing Policy Debate

Fall 2001 (Dowell Myers and Elizabeth Gearin)Fall 2001 (Dowell Myers and Elizabeth Gearin)

Dowell Myers web site:http://www-rcf.usc.edu/~dowell/


growing preferences for higher density residential environments

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