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SCARCE 1st annual conference
Groundwater management in Iberian River Basins
Emilio CUSTODIO, Dr.I.E., Emilio CUSTODIO, Dr.I.E., Royal Acad. Sciences, SpainRoyal Acad. Sciences, SpainDept. GeoDept. Geo––Eng., Technical University Catalonia (UPC)Eng., Technical University Catalonia (UPC)Foundation Intern. Centre on Groundwater HydrologyFoundation Intern. Centre on Groundwater Hydrology
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––11
Understanding the effects of global change on water quantity and qualityin river basins
02nd/03rd December 2010, Girona, Spain
Contents: • The hydrological cycle• Climate and global change• Effects on water resources
* planetary, in Europe, in Spain* in the Ebre Basins, in Catalonia
• Influence on groundwater management
Inside project CICYTREDESAC (CGL2009–12910–C03–01)
The hydrological cycle
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––22
Schematic hydrological cycle
• Forward • air humidity transport• precipitation
• Backward Fast branch = surface waterSlow branch = groundwater
Water balance in the soilGeneration of aquifer recharge
Wanted resultsrunoff generationgroundwater recharge
Interconnected
The hydrological cycle
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––33
Surface water • from direct runoff soil [rare]
• rainfall on open continental water bodies• as interflow• as GROUND WATER DISCHARGE (BASE FLOW)
Groundwater • rainfall recharge
• river infiltration important in
diffusethrough fissuresconcentrated
on saturatedon frozen Fast renovation rate
Slow to very slow renovation rateReserves >> Resources
Important • to ecology• to river flow persistence• a resource for human needs
Relatively recent intensive useEasy appropriation by users
Aquifer recharge in peninsular
SpainR R/PRCV
arid areaspiedmontsintensively exploited aquifers
Climate change
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––44
IPCC definition
A statiscally significant variation in the state variables that define the climate of a region (e.g. T, P) or in their variability,persistent over an extended)period of time (≥ decades)
There are: • Stable periods or a smooth trend• Periods of fast change
• positive feedback reinforcementa flip–flop like system
Large scale, planetary–wide effect producing changes in
* Forcings• solar radiation smooth trends• atmosphere greenhouse effect due to gases
CO2, CH4, NOX, … smooth trendsH2O (vapour droplets) highly variable
* linked to atmospheric situation* a major cause of uncertainty
• dust ( wind, volcanic, anthropogenic)* Ocean smooth to fast trends• circulation• temperature• mean level
* Continent smooth trends• surface area• distribution• relief effect• albedo• ice extension
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––55
Reference pre–industrial value: 270 ppm vol.Current value: 387 ppm vol. (Mauna Loa)
From Antartic ice cores
EEA, 2008
years before 2005IPCC, 2007
Rad
iativ
e fo
rcin
g, W
m–2
NO
2 in
10–
9vo
l.C
H4
in 1
0–9
vol.
CO
2 in
10–
6vo
l.
Historical changes in atmospheric gas contents
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––66
Temperature change in the last millennium
Reference point: average 1995 – 2004 for 01–01–2000Natural variations: up to 0,5ºC for 1–4 decades
Result: 20th century warming is overimposed on centuries of considerable lower temperatures
After Chapman D.S. and Davis, M.G. (2010), EOS 91 (37)NRC (2006), IPCC(2007)
Memory of past temperature in deep boreholes
ΔTºC of last years still in upper m
tree ringscoressedimentsice coresglacier length changessubsurface temp. in boreholes
Proxi estimates
Instrumental: from 1850
Δ Population, 109 Condition Results ΔTºC*A2A1B
B1C3
6 12
6 8.7 76 8.7 7
no agreements bussiness as usualefficiency and 50%
non–fossilcontrolCO2 at 2000 level
4*
~2.52
0.5
* Global averages. Up to 3 times in high latitudes
ipcc future scenarios 2000–2010
150100
0
150500
Global change
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––77
global ≠ planetary = all processes
Combination at local level of:
Climate change
Anthropogenic effects
• on land cover • forest• cropland due to changes in • urban area
• on water • use and demand• consumption• quality
• on quality of the environment
surface areadensitymanagementalbedo
due to
urbanizationpopulation growthpollutionmore water demanding habits
Climate and global change
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––88
Climate is the result from complex systems
with important feedbacks positive reinforcement and amplificationnegative trend to stability
Understanding simplify actual processesQuantification must consider relevant influencesneed numerical models
Large uncertainties involved due to:• complexity understand complexity• positive feedbacks chaotic behaviour• insufficient understanding improve• need to introduce simplifications reproduce what is important• insufficient monitoring increase
Reduce uncertainty through:• improved general models• better downscaling methods• ability to reproduce past events
use proxi variables of climate variables
historicalpalaeoevents
But there is always a irreductive degree of uncertainty
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––99
Future climatic change effectsPrimary effects
• Temperature increase. Reasonable predictions
• Precipitation changes in quite uncertain
• Planetary fluctuation changes e.g. El Niño / La Niña phenomenaocean thermohaline circulation
• Sea level rise
annual valuesregime
Results
Increased evapotranspiration
Decreased runoff through
Change in runoff regime due to
Possible increased frequency of extensive events
Water quality changes
Ecological changes
Modified water resources
in potential values clearactual values unclear
less interflowless aquifer recharge base flowincreased phreatophyte uptake in dry areas
seasonal interflow variationinterannual early snow melt
droughts especially in dry areasfloods especially in flat landsin surface water
in lakesin groundwater
in ecosystems
in biodiversity
surface arealiving specieshydroperiod
management to adaptmitigation
Modelling is needed
probable but uncertainuncertainuncertain
Effects of climate change on water resources
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1010
Changes:• river runoff
• river flow regime rainfall regimeice melt time
decreasedecrease
more irregularearlier
Expected in Spain
This means:• Different of dam reservoirs
• capacity to hold floods• reserve for droughts• evaporation losses• hydroelectric power generation• water quality and silting up rate
• Changed aquifer–river relationships• Problems associated to sealevel rise• Modified water demand
• for urban uses • for agriculture• for environment
• ecological (maintenance) flows• dilution flows• wetland surface area
more emphasis in availability
lowerlowerincreaseddecreasedimpairedlower baseflowmoderate
less waterless waterimpaired
behaviourmanagement rules
quantityquality
• aquifer recharge
Effects of climate change on groundwater resources
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1111
Aquifer recharge complex, non linear function of rainfallthe more the dryer is the area
subject to change● per event● progressive
Future effects difficult to forecast small experiencevery uncertainhighly dependent on land use changesa function of surface water/impounded water management
In Mediterranean and Central Spain / Archipelagos● probable less diffuse recharge● possible increase in localized recharge
if streams, creeks, flooding areas are not modified
subject to management
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1212
Change in water demand due to increased temperatureIn crop land Increased crop evapotranspiration expected
Modified crop behaviour• faster maturity expected• enhanced double cropping possible• crop yield changes due to CO2 increase expected• longer growing seasons possible
• shift in crop possibole
In forest areas Water availability decreases as forest:• expands• is less managed increased interception and detention• temperature increases
In Nature• wetland evaporation
• river water for
In human use• for cooling• for sanitation• for recreation
typesvarieties
wild lifewaste digestion
Annual river flow reduction due to forest growth, in hm3/km2 forested (or m), versus local precipitation (after Zhang et al., 2001,
WRR 37: 701–708)
But many unknowns remain ● fog trapping in forest● environmental humidity
Climate change modelling
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1313
Global (planetary) circulation models GCM• Several models
• ∼ coincide for the historial period• for the same future scenarios their results
* are close for the next decades* may diverge for late the 21st century
• Coarse grid• insufficient data availability• limited computing capacity• simplification of
– continent–sea interaction– orography– land cover
But they are being improved progressively
Regional circulation models RCM
Downscalling from GCM● statistical using pre–established relationships● dynamical (nested in RCM) (eg. PROMES)
Typical GCM grid on peninsular SpainShortcuts
Models are needed
Observed recent temperature changes
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Average annual temperatures (Hulme & Sheard, 1999)= 1.6ºC; 2.0ºC in summer; 1.4ºC in winter
∆T in the 20th century +0.7ºC
Planetary
Calendar year
Planetary
In the Iberian Peninsula
CRU, 2003
IPCC, 2007
ΔT
Forecasted planetary temperature changes
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1515Increase from 2000 to 2071–2100 in scenario A2.
Green Paper, European Commission 2007
Projections for mean planetary temperature change in different scenarios∆T = 1.8ºC to 4ºC (extreme 6.4ºC) in year 2100(IPCC, 2007)
Uncertainty in
To produce comparable forecasts• start from a base situation (eg. 1970–1999)• refer to a given future period• construct probable scenarios
calculationforecasting There is an irreductible
uncertainty
IPCC, 2007
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1616
Forecasted temperature changes in the Iberian PeninsulaReference 1961–1990
Model UCLM–PROMES, nested in HadAM3. 2071–2100Gaertner, 2005, PRUDENCE Project
Seasonal ∆T in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula (MMA, 2005)
TΔ 2–3ºC/30 years in summer1–2ºC/30 years in winter in Spain. Harley Center, A2; B2
∆T, º
C
winter
spring
summer
autumm
Changes in precipitation and water resources
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1717
Circumstances to be considered
• Recording stations may suffer from local effects (land use, urbanization)
• Water resources are affected by
• Environmental pollution influences water availability
• Important local effects downscalling
• Values may increase or decrease
consider
hydrological processesabstractions, land usemanagement
average yearly valuesintensityannual regime
duration of
important consequences
Observed values Forecasted values Comments on past behaviourTemperatureRainfallRunoffGroundwater rechargeWater resources
Rather lowRather largeRather largeRather largeLarge
ModerateQuite largeQuite largeQuite largeVery large
Good records and proxisShort recordsShort, inaccurate recordsComplex calculation and anthropic effectsLarge influence of management and water works
Uncertainty in
droughtswet periods
Trends in precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1818
Accumulated deviated precipitation
In Sevilla–Tabladas extended by the Sevilla–Iglesia de la Encarnación
station
In Madrid (CH Tajo)
In general no clear trends
World forecasted changes in rainfall
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––1919
Percentage of world runoff change using 12 climate models
Forecasted precipitation changes in Europe
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2020
Increase 2000 to 2071–2100 in scenario A2
Green Paper, European Commission
Source: EEA, 2005Water availability in Europe
Scenario A2/SRES
Increase 2000 to 2071–2100
IPCC, 2007
Forecasted precipitation changes in the Iberian Peninsula
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2121
Reference 1961–1990
Seasonal ∆P (mm/d) in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula (MMA, 2005) Model UCLM–PROMES, nested in HadAM3. 2071–2100
Gaertner, 2005, PRUDENCE Project
∆P, m
m/d
Observed river flow changes in the Ebre River Basinand in Madrid Basin
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2222
black: measured flowblue: simulated flowEbre river in Tortosa (MIMAM, 2000)
Water availability in the river basins contributing to the Madrid area (Bolarque).
Heavy line: annual inflow, hm3/year (Iglesias et al., 2010, Water Policy in Spain,
CRC: 67)
Time evolution of irrigation water use and other consumptions not explained by climate change or
irrigation. Ebre basin (after Armengol)
hm3/ahm3/a
hm3/a
River flow changes in Catalan river basins
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2323
Llobregat river basin headwatersArea upstream La Baells reservoirRiver close–to–the–river flow piezometric levels(from Water Change project (LIFE), CETaqua–CRAHI)
expansiondensification
Ter river basin headwaters (after Gallart)Contribution to Sau reservoirNo conspicuous land–use changes
excet for forest in 30% of basin
year
Ann
ual i
nflo
w re
lativ
e to
Sa
u re
serv
oir c
apac
ity
Average inflow change to Catalan InnerBasins surface water reservoirs in
%/year (after Armengol)RESERVOIR Boadella Sau La Baells Siurana
ObservedDue to climateOther*
–0.070.37–1.14
–0.980.05–0.67
–1.020.18–0.66
–3.350.08–2.17
* after correcting for known water use changes
m3/s
mm/a
m
m
inflow
Forecasted water resources decrease in peninsular Spain
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2424Current water shortage areas
Water resources decrease, % OECC, 2006
Runoff reduction in 2030For ∆T = +1ºc; decrease –5%
CEDEX, 2008
PΔ
Scenario Year ∆T ºC ∆P%ABCD
2030203020302060
+1ºC+1
+2,5
0–5%
0–8%
PROMES
A B C DLow use
Circumstantial Shortage
Structural Shortage
0%
1‐10 %
11 ‐ 25 %
26 ‐ 50 %
51 ‐ 75 %
76 ‐ 100 %
Scenario
Trends of change in Catalonia
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2525
Average yearly seawater temperature at the surface and three depths.
Mediterranean Sea
Tem
pera
ture
ºC%
pre
cipi
tatio
nA
nom
alie
s re
lativ
e to
196
1–19
90
year
–20 m
Surface
Tem
pera
ture
ºC
–50 m
–80 m
year
yearyear
Ave
rage
tem
pera
ture
ºC
Sau reservoir Ter river basin (Gallart)
Climate change results for the Ebro/Ebre basin
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2626
Alvares, 2010
Coupled Global Climate Change Model (Canada) CGCM3
IPCC, Escenarios AIB A2 B1 Commit (attainement of CO2 control goals)
Forecasted average change for the basin (Alvares, 2010)Variable 2010–39 2040–69 2070–99
Temperature, ∆T ºCPrecipitation, ∆P mm/yrSurface runoff, ∆SRInterflow, ∆INTGW flow, ∆GWFActual evap., ∆AETTotal flow, ∆Q
1.25–7 (–1.2%)
–10.3%–11.3%
–9.4%
2.23–51 (–8.6%)
–20.9%–24.2%
–22%
2.28–47 (–7.9%)
–2.2%–21.1%–22%
small (*)–20.2%
* PET increases (increased temperature); soil water reserve decreases
Alvares, 2010
Changes in hydrological terms affecting aquifer recharge in the Ebro river basin (Alvares, 2010)
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2727
Interception, mm/yr
PET, mm/yr
AET, mm/yr
Surface runoff, mm/yr
Interflow, mm/yr
Groundwater flow, mm/yr
Effects of climate and global change in water resources
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2828
Results and conclusions
In forthcoming years demand will increase for
In many areas they will dominate over temperature increase
This conditions effective mitigation results
environmentagriculture and foresturbanpopulation
Depending on the area, yearly average water resources mayincreasenot changedecrease
This means
existing water works effectiveness will changecurrent water use has to be reassessedimproved integrated water resources usewide–scope approaches are needed, eg. virtual water tradewater value has to be taken into accountthe water footprint of human activities has to be known
But there are possible changes in
annual regime
droughts
intensity of extense eventscoastal flooding
durationfrequency floods
erosion rate
managementadaptation
Forecasting means
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––2929
● Improved monitoring of
● More accurate scenarios
● Linked models for:– local precipitation– runoff generation– aquifer recharge– integrated water resources management– socio–economic evaluation– decision making
● Improved ● coupling of models● data base sharing
surface watergroundwatercoastal aquifers
Mitigation means for global and climate change
SCARCESCARCE––ECEC––3030
Results and conclusions
• Improved use of groundwater storage
• Change of existing water works operation rules
• Better territorial connectivity for water resources, including virtual water transfer
• New resources have to be considered and integrated
• Effort on water quality protection and restoration
• Increased water use efficiency less use with improved
This needs flexible but enforced
• Social aspects have to be improved • markets• institutions• users participation and co–responsability• long–term policies instead of short–term politics• clear and flexible water rights• ethical and moral behaviour
quality is a key issue with increasing future importance
Mitigation needs considering
naturalartificial
used water reclamation for reuse
desalinization of brackish waterseawater
economic resultsemploymentNaturesocial satisfaction and equitynorms
prioritiesincentives
adequate knowledgeadequate monitoringmanpower and collaborationresearchlong–term vision
Groundwater role will increase
quantityquality
Groundwater plays a key role, especially in Spain